NE 2017 Draft haul + udfa

[long distance]

very good full list by MD



here in pictures:

Patriots 2017 Undrafted Free Agents


here in a few words:

 

[manxman2601]

Patriots have signed Arkansas LB Brooks Ellis as a UDFA. Arkansas, the Rutgers of the south?

Ellis is a fairly typical Patriots style ILB. Didn't love his tape in this new passing league but he'd have made a good 3-4 ILB. Not surprised by this signing however.

 

[maineman209]

Given the little that Coleman played in the second half of the season, that shouldn't be too hard. I'm not sure I'd even consider Coleman the incumbent to be honest. Whoever we keep should probably be based on upside for 2018 as Butler will likely be gone and, hopefully, we won't need a ton of plays from our bottom CB behind the top three and Cyrus Jones.

If you compare game-by-game defensive snap counts/percentages for Coleman, Ryan, Rowe (even after he joined the Pats), and the Jones Boys, it's pretty clear that there was a lot of tinkering and "trying out stuff " going on from week-5 (@CLE) thru week-10 (SEA) with the "staffing" for the RCB and nickel/slot DB roles.

Coleman played a significant percentage at nickel/slot CB in weeks 1, 2 & 4. He was relegated to ST-only in week-3 (HOU), when Cy Jones saw his first significant percentage of CB snaps (47%).

Coleman was then inactive for week-5 (@CLE) when Cy Jones saw 29% of the CB snaps and Jon Jones saw his only significant percentage of DB snaps (51%) for the entire season. After that, Jon was ST-only until contributing about 11 DB snaps per game in weeks 14-16.

Coleman and Cy Jones were both inactive for week-6, when Rowe caught 38% of the CB snaps. Through this point, Ryan was the starting RCB. After this point, primarily Ryan and Rowe began switching back an forth between slot and RCB, though Coleman caught 23% and 43% of the snaps in weeks 7 & 8, cutting into Ryan's snaps week-7 and Harmon's snaps week-8.

After the BYE, Coleman caught 69% of the snaps v. SEA in week-10 (Rowe was inactive), but didn't see another defensive snap until he had a handful of token snaps at the end of the gem in week-17.

Cy Jones caught 35% of the DB snaps in week-13 (Rams), with various combinations of him, Rowe, Ryan and Harmon covering RCB and/or slot/nickel. He then caught 69% of the snaps in week-14 (BAL) when Rowe was again inactive.

Both Jones boys saw a few snaps apiece in week 16 (NYJ), but that was pretty much it.

NOTE: Butler played 97% of all regular season defensive snaps - all at LCB.

My feeling about this is that BB/Patricia weren't completely satisfied with a lineup of Ryan at RCB and Coleman splitting nickel duties with Harmon (with Cy Jones getting at least some of the snaps through the first five games) - hence the trade for Rowe after Jon Jones had his one big "tryout" in week-5.

Cy Jones had one more big shot in week-14, but from there out the playoff starters were pretty much determined. The rest of the snaps that Coleman and the Jones boys saw on defense was just keeping them up to speed in case on of them had to jump in as an injury sub during the post season.

 

[maineman209]

This is the first time I've ever heard of SPARQ.

It's really just one of several methods that have been developed for consolidating all the numbers for the traditional combine tests into one number that makes comparisons easier. It kinda (only kinda) helps resolve comparisons like:

Prospect A: 34" vert ... 121"lj ... 4.40 ss ... 6.75 3-cone
Prospect B: 36" vert ... 115" lj ... 4.24 ss ... 6.90 3-cone

IIRC, SPARQ was purchased by Nike a few years ago, who then folded it a couple years later in favor of RAS (a different method, using non-traditional tests). And then teams have their own methods of scoring/consolidating testing numbers (Seattle apparently has an "Explosiveness" number that's applied to trench guys).

There is one guy who's been publishing comparative scores for ALL draft prospects using the old SPARQ formula since 2015 (which is where I'm getting my numbers). The SPARQ formula has been criticized (probably justifiably) for how it weights the various testing numbers, but - like most models - it's still useful for rough comparisons, even though it's flawed. At the very least, it's based on the testing numbers that we're all familiar with.

 

[Tony2046]

It's really just one of several methods that have been developed for consolidating all the numbers for the traditional combine tests into one number that makes comparisons easier. It kinda (only kinda) helps resolve comparisons like:

Prospect A: 34" vert ... 121"lj ... 4.40 ss ... 6.75 3-cone
Prospect B: 36" vert ... 115" lj ... 4.24 ss ... 6.90 3-cone

IIRC, SPARQ was purchased by Nike a few years ago, who then folded it a couple years later in favor of RAS (a different method, using non-traditional tests). And then teams have their own methods of scoring/consolidating testing numbers (Seattle apparently has an "Explosiveness" number that's applied to trench guys).

There is one guy who's been publishing comparative scores for ALL draft prospects using the old SPARQ formula since 2015 (which is where I'm getting my numbers). The SPARQ formula has been criticized (probably justifiably) for how it weights the various testing numbers, but - like most models - it's still useful for rough comparisons, even though it's flawed. At the very least, it's based on the testing numbers that we're all familiar with.

Thanks for that.

I'm not sure how involved I'll get into grading draft prospects although I did enjoy following you guys through the draft nights but it is interesting nevertheless.

Right now I'm trying to understand the game at a deeper level.

One thing I do find impressive is how much some of you know about each prospect. The draft night threads are truly a must read if only for that.

 

[jimnance]

Didn't read the whole thread but in response to the discussion on the lb group being sufficient:

Ken pretty much hit the nail the on the head.

The Pats, like most of the NFL now, are in sub 70%+ of the time. They very often have 6 dbs on the field,(btw- their top 6 dbs, Butler,Gilmore,Rowe,Dmac,chung,Harmon is the best top 6 in the NFL).

Chung really plays the part of lb as much as he does SS,which greatly improves pass coverage on tes and rbs,while still providing strong run support. He's filling that hybrid ss/lb role most teams are going to.

So in reality,the Pats usually have only 2 true lbs on the field at the same time. One of them,Hightower, is one of the best in the NFL and extremely versatile.

I don't consider Nink a lb- I'd just call him primarily an edge-rusher.

A few years ago, the Pats current lb group would've been inadequate.
But times have changed. 5-6 dbs are the norm now- that's the real base defense-forget about 34 and 43. Especially if you have a Chung on your roster, your lbs as a group are now pretty versatile. High does everything, van not,mclellin,Roberts,chung are all specialists. I'm not worried about them at all.
Very solid group imo.
I thought the only need on D was another edgerusher. Ealy should help. I have no opinion on the draft pick des. Remains to be seen what they'll do.
But now that butler's back, this is probably the best secondary in the NFL. Lot of coverage sacks. I think this is absolutely a top 3 defense,maybe better.

 

[Dr Pain]

And Max Rich excited me the most. What a name!

A Tackle Harvard kid at 6'7" 315lbs and Dante, could be interesting.

 

[kennyb]

I could see 3 or 4 making the 53. Daniels, butler, jones, thompson, king all promising.

Thank god no reaches this year. When belichick talked about langli in the 1st....kind of scared me.

 

[manxman2601]

I could see 3 or 4 making the 53. Daniels, butler, jones, thompson, king all promising.

Thank god no reaches this year. When belichick talked about langli in the 1st....kind of scared me.

Speaking of no reaches:

 

[maineman209]

Thanks for that.

I'm not sure how involved I'll get into grading draft prospects although I did enjoy following you guys through the draft nights but it is interesting nevertheless.

Right now I'm trying to understand the game at a deeper level.

One thing I do find impressive is how much some of you know about each prospect. The draft night threads are truly a must read if only for that.

Yeah, I don't really "grade" prospects, as in, "This guy's a 2nd-round talent, but this other guy is a 5th-rounder at best." Neither do most of the posters in the Draft Talk Forum, which is why I really admire their contributions.

I more or less try to get a feel for how a prospect might fit/be useful in the Pats' schemes. For instance, perhaps there's a CB who's very popular with media draft gurus who grade him as a "1st-round talent". He's bigger than average, "athletic", a ballhawk, and QBs throwing into his coverage have a dismal QBR. OTOH, he's not a particularly willing run defender and misses a fair amount of tackles (kind of a no-no for Pats DBs).

Also, he's played almost exclusively in zone schemes, whereas the Pats now play a lot of man and press. Sure, the media gurus project him to be able to make the transition easily (because of his inherent "talent"), but at least a few of us understand how arduous it was for McCourty to make that transition during his second season in Foxboro, when the Pats made the switch from primarily zone to primarily man.

So, the higher-ranked CB may (or may not) end up with Pro Bowl stats on some other team, but the lower-ranked prospect might be more useful in the Pats defense.

Anyway, for me, SPARQ scores aren't really useful for "ranking" prospects. They're merely a helpful shorthand for things like identifying prospects who may have shown similar athleticism to higher-ranked prospects, but who may be better scheme fits.

And, SPARQ scores don't even come close to telling the whole story, of course. On all of the positional lists, many of the top scorers who are 1+ standard deviations above the NFL average for their position are also late-rounders/UDFAs in the draft, while many of the top-ranked prospects may have average/below average scores (Google: 3sigma nfl). This only serves to highlight the difference on tape that's often expressed as "play speed v. tested speed". The higher-ranked prospects may simply possess "intangibles" that may have allowed them to maximize whatever athleticism they have, at least at the college level.

A case in point would be Malcolm Butler. At his 2014 Pro Day, his measurables were ...
5096/187 ... 4.62/40, 1.62/10-yd split
13 reps ... 33.5" vertical ... 118" long jump ... 4.27 shuttle ... 7.20 3-cone

Those numbers probably would have produced a SPARQ score at least one standard deviation below average. In the same year, the Pats also had two other UDFA CBs in rookie camp who would have had much higher SPARQ scores, but no one likely even remembers who they were now.

IMHO, what enables Butler to succeed as a boundary corner is his exceptional diagnostic skill - his ability to read the play and the route (or run) before it happens. This allows him to optimize his position and more than offsets his relative lack of natural speed, burst and agility. So, he often "runs the route for the WR" - maybe not quite at Revis-in-his-prime level, but close enough.

OTOH, he HAS been burned by extremely agile and athletic WRs (e.g., Taylor Gabriel), which makes me somewhat skeptical of the notion that Rowe and Gilmore will man the boundaries for 2017, while Butler will drop down from LCB to the slot (where extremely agile WRs make their living). Gilmore has played RCB for most of his career, with some slot mixed in. And, in 2016, Rowe and Ryan, both with significantly more natural agility than Butler, switched off with each other between RCB and nickel/slot (sometimes in the same game), while Butler was almost exclusively on the left boundry.

Rowe: 3.97 ss ... 6.70 3-cone
Ryan: 4.06 ss ... 6.69 3-cone
Gilmore: 3.94 ss ... 6.61 3-cone

I'm more inclined to think that Butler will stay at LCB, while Gilmore and Rowe will be the moveable chess pieces between RCB and slot.

 

[maineman209]

Didn't read the whole thread but in response to the discussion on the lb group being sufficient:

Ken pretty much hit the nail the on the head.

The Pats, like most of the NFL now, are in sub 70%+ of the time. They very often have 6 dbs on the field,(btw- their top 6 dbs, Butler,Gilmore,Rowe,Dmac,chung,Harmon is the best top 6 in the NFL).

Chung really plays the part of lb as much as he does SS,which greatly improves pass coverage on tes and rbs,while still providing strong run support. He's filling that hybrid ss/lb role most teams are going to.

So in reality,the Pats usually have only 2 true lbs on the field at the same time. One of them,Hightower, is one of the best in the NFL and extremely versatile.

I don't consider Nink a lb- I'd just call him primarily an edge-rusher.

A few years ago, the Pats current lb group would've been inadequate.
But times have changed. 5-6 dbs are the norm now- that's the real base defense-forget about 34 and 43. Especially if you have a Chung on your roster, your lbs as a group are now pretty versatile. High does everything, van not,mclellin,Roberts,chung are all specialists. I'm not worried about them at all.
Very solid group imo.
I thought the only need on D was another edgerusher. Ealy should help. I have no opinion on the draft pick des. Remains to be seen what they'll do.
But now that butler's back, this is probably the best secondary in the NFL. Lot of coverage sacks. I think this is absolutely a top 3 defense,maybe better.

Agree, for the most part.

The thing about Nink is that, for his first three to four seasons with the Pats, he was mostly an OLB who dropped down to the LoS situationally (a role he inherited from Vrabel). In 2016, HT began playing more like that (dropping down to the LoS on the other side) while Nink more often dropped back from the LoS into an OLB role. Rivers, though nominally a "DE", seems likely to be able to handle that type of role, too.

It seems to me that there's a lot of intentional overlap between DE and OLB roles in the Pats defensive scheme to the degree that pigeon-holing guys with nominal positional designations can somewhat obscure the inherent versatility that these guys possess. Even ILB/OLB designations are kind of murky now.

Chung certainly played the second LB role quite a bit in 2LB formations in 2016. He was also a bit overworked (1207 regular seasons snaps, about 120 more than any starting OL and highest on the team). So, developmental improvement of pre-existing LBs, and/or upgrading with someone like Langi and/or Bates may give Chung some relief and reduce the necessity of situational substitutions while also allowing HT to continues dropping down to a DE-type role.

 

[long distance]

Speaking of no reaches:

Shane Alexander @Shane1Alexander
I compared all 32 teams drafts to my pre-draft rankings to see the best/worst values.
___

Funny guy thinking his draft board actually has some reference of real value.

Like Lombardi often mentions, BB doesn't allow anyone to use “day“ gradings.

Still Mayock had Rivers at #82 and Garcia at #86. Pretty uncanny..

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Dang that would of been fun

 

[DaBruinz]

NOTE: Butler played 97% of all regular season defensive snaps - all at LCB.

Maineman - Not sure where that information came from, but it's inaccurate. Butler lined up all over. It depended on the match-ups that week..

 

[stcjones]

Austin Carr is DEFINITELY my draft day binky!!!! I think he could be hugely successful in this offense!!!!

Maybe we should have one thread to gather all info about the new Patriots
(that don't have their threads out already)





current UDFA class:

LeShun Daniels, RB, Iowa

Austin Carr, WR, Northwestern

Cody Hollister, WR, Arkansas -- PFA ($20.000)

Jacob Hollister, TE, Wyoming -- PFA ($90.000)

Cole Croston, OT, Iowa

Andrew Jelks, OT, Vanderbilt

Jason King, OG, Purdue

Max Rich, OT, Harvard

Adam Butler, DL, Vanderbilt

Josh Augusta, DT, Missouri -- PFA ($2.500)

Corey Vereen, ED, Tennessee -- PFA ($12.500)

Harvey Langi, LB, BYU -- PFA ($115.000)

Brooks Ellis, LB, Arkansas

David Jones, FS, Richmond -- PFA ($7.500)

Damarius Travis, SS, Minnesota

Jason Thompson, S-ST, Utah -- PFA (3.500)

Dwayne Thomas, DB, LSU

Kenny Moore, CB, Valdosta State

D.J. Killings, CB, Central Florida -- PFA (31.000)
__

Rodney Butler, LB, New Mexico -- tryout

Brian Riley, WR, San Diego -- tryout

Abner Logan, LB, Albany -- tryout

Brock Davies, Pueblo -- tryout /6'1, 257, played DL/ST, ex-rugby/


__

UPDATED: 5/5 -- (19 udfas officially signed)

 

[long distance]

Nice list from Miguel. Forgot to add Hamilton in 2016 though.


___

Impressive. If we include udfas “stolen“ to other rosters this list would be even more impressive.

Just from 2016 udfa class:
J Jones, DJ Foster, Hamilton all played for Patriots.
LeBlanc played in 13 games for Chicago.
TE Scheu spent the season on DEN PS
TE Bryce Williams on Rams PS

so 6 of 8 made it to NFL

Then there are udfas Pats took from other teams etc..

This year the depth of draft class was raved unanimously. Patriots 2017 UDFA haul is enormous (19) and considered among best. So expect many of these players making it to the 2017 NFL season. Just not too many on Pats roster unfortunately ..

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Rooting for Carr Jones and Daniels
He excited me the most beast of a back runs thru contact has a little wiggle could make the roster over Bolden.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Based upon what? Don't they have another full day of workouts?

 

[gohogs14]

Patriots have signed Arkansas LB Brooks Ellis as a UDFA. Arkansas, the Rutgers of the south?

Ellis is a fairly typical Patriots style ILB. Didn't love his tape in this new passing league but he'd have made a good 3-4 ILB. Not surprised by this signing however.

Yeah he's not near athletic enough to cover anyone in the NFL, but he's not bad against the downhill running game. He may actually be better against NFL style running games than having to move side to side against spread college offenses. He's smart and a pretty good tackler.

Made the SEC all-academic team and wants to use his NFL money to pay for medical school after he is done