My Big Board

[manxman2601]

I've now taken Dante Fowler off my draft board he's getting into the top 5 overall conversation and I think there's no way he falls to us. And I'm now moving Bud Dupree to the top of my list ahead of Scherff, Clemmings etc.

I was partially inspired to do so by this picture showing Dupree's burst at the snap:

And you can see that play and one other at 4:09 in the below video (two consecutive plays)



Much like Jamie Collins' tape, I think Dupree is inconsistent and doesn't necessarily wow all the time but there are times when he explodes and hits like Collins and those are genuine wow moments. He'll need some coaching and I'm keen to see how he looks in linebacker drills at the combine but Dupree, with his extra weight and length, is the EDGE version of Collins potentially. I know we don't play it that much, but can you imagine 3-4 linebacker group of Hightower-Collins-Mayo-Dupree?

 

[meatface]

I've now taken Dante Fowler off my draft board he's getting into the top 5 overall conversation and I think there's no way he falls to us. And I'm now moving Bud Dupree to the top of my list ahead of Scherff, Clemmings etc.

I was partially inspired to do so by this picture showing Dupree's burst at the snap:

And you can see that play and one other at 4:09 in the below video (two consecutive plays)



Much like Jamie Collins' tape, I think Dupree is inconsistent and doesn't necessarily wow all the time but there are times when he explodes and hits like Collins and those are genuine wow moments. He'll need some coaching and I'm keen to see how he looks in linebacker drills at the combine but Dupree, with his extra weight and length, is the EDGE version of Collins potentially. I know we don't play it that much, but can you imagine 3-4 linebacker group of Hightower-Collins-Mayo-Dupree?

Shhhh, someone with a higher pick might here you.

 

[manxman2601]

Pre- Combine Big Board Update

I've decided to do a pre-combine update which will give me a useful point of comparison to see if anything changes post-combine.

Some notes:

1. This is my board. I'm only including prospects that excite or intrigue me.
2. I'm not really including day one or two DBs until the Revis and McCourty situations are resolved.
3. I haven't looked at WRs properly yet. I'm only including the ones I really like for now.
4. I like our depth at RB so I'm not particularly interested in later round RBs.
5. I'm using my adaptation of the way the Patriots set up their board as per Patriot Reign. See below.

How I rank players

I'm using my interpretation of the ranking system used by the Patriots as outlined in Patriot Reign (see post 34). I'm not giving grades as such, just ranking the players within tiers. The tiers are:

Starter:

Someone who can start in year one and will be one of the better players on the team by the end other first contract. First rounders.

Circumstantial Starter:

As above but they're not quite perfect for some reason beyond their own performance levels. Think Gronk's back or Jamie Collins playing a number of different coaches. First to early second rounders.

Make It +:

These are players that don't fit into the starter tier but will be quality prospects that will start in time and are prospects that will help you win. These are second and early third rounders.

Dirty Starter:

Could start, but something about the player is restrictive (maybe not enough speed/athleticism). The manual says this could be the category for over and under achievers. Late day two - Early day three prospects.

Make It:

Backups essentially. Well worth a place on the 53 man roster but probably won't challenge the starters.

UDFA:

Practice squadders and special teamers. Late day three and UDFA prospects.

The Big Board in the next post.

 

[manxman2601]

Pre-Combine Big Board Update


Starter

1. Alvin Dupree
2. T.J. Clemmings
3. Brandon Scherff
4. La'el Collins
5. AJ Cann

Notes: As I said in an earlier post, I'm moving Dupree to the top of the rankings because of his EDGE abilities on top of his Jamie Collins like athleticism. If he's as coachable as Collins, his upside is huge. AJ Cann is a difficult one to rank. I think he has day one starter ability and is a good fit in a power zone blocking scheme but he doesn't really have the versatility BB likes. There are prospects in the next two tiers I like more but I'm sticking to these tier descriptions for now.

Circumstantial Starter:

6. Todd Gurley
7. Owamagbe Odighizuwa
8. Cameron Erving.

Make It Plus:

9. Arik Armstead
10. Malcolm Brown
11. Maxx Wiliams
12. Devin Smith
13. Carl Davis
14. Eddie Goldman
15. D.J. Humphries
16. Jake Fisher
17. Devin Funchess
18. Tevin Coleman
19. Danielle Hunter
20. Benadrick McKinney
21. Duke Johnson
22. Marcus Hardison.

Dirty Starter:

23. Lorenzo Mauldin
24. Ameer Abdullah
25. T.J. Yeldon
26. Preston Smith
27. Jay Ajayi
28. Jeremiah Poutasi
29. Ty Sambrailo
30. Nelson Agholor
31. Tre McBride
32. Mario Edwards Jnr
33. Cedric Ogbuehi
34. Clive Walford
35. Stephone Anthony
36. Jacquiski Tartt
37. Anthony Harris
38. Josh Shaw
39. Rashad Greene
40. Ellis McCarthy
41. Nick Marshall
42. Mike Davis
43. Jesse James
44. Jamil Douglas
45. Corey Crawford

Make It:

46. David Johnson
47. Anthony Chickillo
48. Shaq Mason
49. Byron Jones
50. John Miller
51. Jean Sifrin
52. Ryan Delaire
53. Deandre Smelter
54. Bobby Richardson
55. Jeff Luc
56. Steven Nelson
57. Joey Mbu
58. Lynden Trail
59. Ben Koyack
60. Zach Hodges
61. Terry Williams
62. Ali Marpet
63. Chris Harper

UDFA:

64. Rakeem Nunez-Roches
65. Blake Bell
66. Darren Waller
67. Obum Gwacham
68. Cassius Sendish
69. Quayshawne Buckley
70. Leon Orr
71. Maurice Falls
72. Michael Orakpo
73. Donald Celiscar
74. Mark Nzeocha
75. Rob Crisp


I hope you like it and I'm happy to answer any of your question about it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Pre-Combine Big Board Update


Starter

1. Alvin Dupree
2. T.J. Clemmings
3. Brandon Scherff
4. La'el Collins
5. AJ Cann

Notes: As I said in an earlier post, I'm moving Dupree to the top of the rankings because of his EDGE abilities on top of his Jamie Collins like athleticism. If he's as coachable as Collins, his upside is huge. AJ Cann is a difficult one to rank. I think he has day one starter ability and is a good fit in a power zone blocking scheme but he doesn't really have the versatility BB likes. There are prospects in the next two tiers I like more but I'm sticking to these tier descriptions for now.

Circumstantial Starter:

6. Todd Gurley
7. Owamagbe Odighizuwa
8. Cameron Erving.

Make It Plus:

9. Arik Armstead
10. Malcolm Brown
11. Maxx Wiliams
12. Devin Smith
13. Carl Davis
14. Eddie Goldman
15. D.J. Humphries
16. Jake Fisher
17. Devin Funchess
18. Tevin Coleman
19. Danielle Hunter
20. Benadrick McKinney
21. Duke Johnson
22. Marcus Hardison.

Dirty Starter:

23. Lorenzo Mauldin
24. Ameer Abdullah
25. T.J. Yeldon
26. Preston Smith
27. Jay Ajayi
28. Jeremiah Poutasi
29. Ty Sambrailo
30. Nelson Agholor
31. Tre McBride
32. Mario Edwards Jnr
33. Cedric Ogbuehi
34. Clive Walford
35. Stephone Anthony
36. Jacquiski Tartt
37. Anthony Harris
38. Josh Shaw
39. Rashad Greene
40. Ellis McCarthy
41. Nick Marshall
42. Mike Davis
43. Jesse James
44. Jamil Douglas
45. Corey Crawford

Make It:

46. David Johnson
47. Anthony Chickillo
48. Shaq Mason
49. Byron Jones
50. John Miller
51. Jean Sifrin
52. Ryan Delaire
53. Deandre Smelter
54. Bobby Richardson
55. Jeff Luc
56. Steven Nelson
57. Joey Mbu
58. Lynden Trail
59. Ben Koyack
60. Zach Hodges
61. Terry Williams
62. Ali Marpet
63. Chris Harper

UDFA:

64. Rakeem Nunez-Roches
65. Blake Bell
66. Darren Waller
67. Obum Gwacham
68. Cassius Sendish
69. Quayshawne Buckley
70. Leon Orr
71. Maurice Falls
72. Michael Orakpo
73. Donald Celiscar
74. Mark Nzeocha
75. Rob Crisp

I hope you like it and I'm happy to answer any of your question about it.

Good job, and nice list.

I know the Pats use a variant of this system, but I'm not really sure exactly how it works. For example, you have AJ Cann listed at #5 on your board as a starter. I like Cann, and I agree that he's probably an almost immediate starter at LG and a long-term fixture at the position, but I don't view him as a 1st round talent, so I personally wouldn't use a 1st on him if at all possible. I can certainly understand the other point of view, that an immediate and long term starter is worth a 1st. But Bryan Stork was a starter as a rookie, and according to Greg Bedard's interview with Dave DeGuglielmo that was the plan almost from the start, but the Pats took him in the early 4th round. So I'm not sure how viewing a player as a "starter" necessarily translates into where the Pats will take him in terms of a draft pick. Perhaps you have a better understanding of this than I do.

 

[manxman2601]

Good job, and nice list.

I know the Pats use a variant of this system, but I'm not really sure exactly how it works. For example, you have AJ Cann listed at #5 on your board as a starter. I like Cann, and I agree that he's probably an almost immediate starter at LG and a long-term fixture at the position, but I don't view him as a 1st round talent, so I personally wouldn't use a 1st on him if at all possible. I can certainly understand the other point of view, that an immediate and long term starter is worth a 1st. But Bryan Stork was a starter as a rookie, and according to Greg Bedard's interview with Dave DeGuglielmo that was the plan almost from the start, but the Pats took him in the early 4th round. So I'm not sure how viewing a player as a "starter" necessarily translates into where the Pats will take him in terms of a draft pick. Perhaps you have a better understanding of this than I do.

No I don't. The Cann pick really troubled me. normally I wouldn't grade him as a first rounder either. Maybe the Patriots consider prospects with little flexibility as "Dirty Starters". That would explain why they don't take interior linemen high in the draft. It would also explain how Stork, who they thought could be a starter from day one, was taken in the fourth. Maybe that's where Cann should be positioned. Having said that, he's a perfect LG for a zone blocking system with enough strength to play in a power scheme too. I find really tough to grade. Like Easley, I'm going to give him the 'like others more but would be fine with him if he's the pick' grade.

 

[mayoclinic]

No I don't. The Cann pick really troubled me. normally I wouldn't grade him as a first rounder either. Maybe the Patriots consider prospects with little flexibility as "Dirty Starters". That would explain why they don't take interior linemen high in the draft. It would also explain how Stork, who they thought could be a starter from day one, was taken in the fourth. Maybe that's where Cann should be positioned. Having said that, he's a perfect LG for a zone blocking system with enough strength to play in a power scheme too. I find really tough to grade. Like Easley, I'm going to give him the 'like others more but would be fine with him if he's the pick' grade.

I viewed Easley completely differently, as a top 10 talent with injury issues. Lower floor than usual, but higher ceiling. I know you had more reservations about him. But I agree with you in terms of Cann. I have him 2nd to Cam Erving among OL who have a realistic chance of being available. I've graded him worth taking with a top 50 pick, and I could easily see top 40 happening. I don't want to use #32 on him unless as a last resort, and if no better option is available I'd trade back for him if at all possible. Getting him in the 2nd round, even with a trade up, would be tremendous.

 

[mayoclinic]

As a separate discussion, you have Bud Dupree listed atop your list as an immediate starter. Where exactly do you see him starting in 2015? It's hard for me to see him taking major reps from Jones, Ninovich, Hightower or Collins as a rookie. Taking over from Ninkovich as a starter in 2016 is a completely different matter, which is why I also have a high grade on him.

The Pats took Nate Solder at #17 in 2011 with the plan that he would be a starter in 2012. He ended up starting most of the 2011 season at RT due to Sebastian Vollmer's injury issues, but that wasn't the plan. Perhaps the Pats' "starter" designation is more of a "capable of starting immediately" tag. Again, I don't claim to understand their grading system very well, which is why I haven't used it. Kudos to you for trying.

 

[manxman2601]

I viewed Easley completely different, as a top 10 talent with injury issues. Lower floor than usual, but higher ceiling. But I agree with you in terms of Cann. I have him 2nd to Cam Erving among OL who have a realistic chance of being available. I've graded him worth taking with a top 50 pick, and I could easily see top 40 happening. I don't want to use #32 on him unless as a last resort, and if no better option is available I'd trade back for him if at all possible. Getting him in the 2nd round, even with a trade up, would be tremendous.

I know we disagreed a little on Easley. Don't get me wrong, I was fine with the pick but I always thought he was a second rounder albeit with upside. I'll be OK with Cann as the pick at 32, I just won't be excited by it.

 

[manxman2601]

As a separate discussion, you have Bud Dupree listed atop your list as an immediate starter. Where exactly do you see him starting in 2015? It's hard for me to see him taking major reps from Jones, Ninovich, Hightower or Collins as a rookie. Taking over from Ninkovich as a starter in 2016 is a completely different matter, which is why I also have a high grade on him.

The Pats took Nate Solder at #17 in 2011 with the plan that he would be a starter in 2012. He ended up starting most of the 2011 season at RT due to Sebastian Vollmer's injury issues, but that wasn't the plan. Perhaps the Pats' "starter" designation is more of a "capable of starting immediately" tag. Again, I don't claim to understand their grading system very well, which is why I haven't used it. Kudos to you for trying.

I think "starter" might be a little flexible. My interpretation is active contributor that can start by the end of season one. I think Dupree could take an Ayers role and be included in a particular package or two from day one. Maybe as a 3-4 OLB, a sub RE with Chandler Jones inside or a 4-3 SLB, depending on Mayo's status.

 

[mayoclinic]

I know we disagreed a little on Easley. Don't get me wrong, I was fine with the pick but I always thought he was a second rounder albeit with upside. I'll be OK with Cann as the pick at 32, I just won't be excited by it.

Our boards differ some. For me, the guys who right now look like they could possibly slip to 32 (or with a minor trade up) who would excite me would include Goldman, Dupree, Erving and Gurley. I can't see Fowler, Scherff , Collins or Clemmings slipping that far right now, though obviously that could change over the next 2 months.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think "starter" might be a little flexible. My interpretation is active contributor that can start by the end of season one. I think Dupree could take an Ayers role and be included in a particular package or two from day one. Maybe as a 3-4 OLB, a sub RE with Chandler Jones inside or a 4-3 SLB, depending on Mayo's status.

I would agree with that. If the Pats don't re-sign Ayers, than Dupree is probably at the top of my list for playing that role. If the Pats do re-sign Ayers, then I probably prefer to wait a bit and get someone like Danielle Hunter or Max Valles.

 

[manxman2601]

Our boards differ some. For me, the guys who right now look like they could possibly slip to 32 (or with a minor trade up) who would excite me would include Goldman, Dupree, Erving and Gurley. I can't see Fowler, Scherff , Collins or Clemmings slipping that far right now, though obviously that could change over the next 2 months.

i've taken Fowler off my board now - he's starting to look like a top 5 guy. And it's starting to look like Clemmings and Scherff might not slip but there's a bunch of OL in contention in round one now with Flowers and maybe Humphries moving into first round consideration. There are 6-8 OL in current consideration for the first round. I'll keep my three on the board because someone might slip to 32 or into trade up territory.

 

[manxman2601]

I would agree with that. If the Pats don't re-sign Ayers, than Dupree is probably at the top of my list for playing that role. If the Pats do re-sign Ayers, then I probably prefer to wait a bit and get someone like Danielle Hunter or Max Valles.

I agree that Ayers would probably make Dupree redundant. I probably wouldn't bother with an EDGe player unless there's a high upside guy on day three (Delaire for example). In that situation I'd focus more on 'Diggy', Preston Smith or Chickillo.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree that Ayers would probably make Dupree redundant. I probably wouldn't bother with an EDGe player unless there's a high upside guy on day three (Delaire for example). In that situation I'd focus more on 'Diggy', Preston Smith or Chickillo.

That's why I currently have Valles late day 3 as my EDGE guy. I think his upside is really, really high. And I like Marcus Hardison's ability to play both inside and out, though I can understand the appeal of "the Human Vowel" and the other guys you've listed.

As an aside, I have keeping Ayers as a very high priority. I've surprised how many people think the Pats should let him walk. He proved to have tremendous value, capable of starting at both DE and LB, and being used in a rotation. BB lauded him quite openly, and compared him to Ninkovich. Just because his snap count decreased when Chandler Jones came back doesn't decrease his value, IMO. We've been desperately needing a versatile rotational piece, and now that we finally have him, I personally wouldn't let Ayers go unless someone throws silly money at him.

 

[manxman2601]

That's why I currently have Valles late day 3 as my EDGE guy. I think his upside is really, really high. And I like Marcus Hardison's ability to play both inside and out, though I can understand the appeal of "the Human Vowel" and the other guys you've listed.

I tend not to be a fan of the undersized lanky players like Valles, Harold and Dion Jordan. I think it's a philosophical difference between you and I. I will take another look at Valles though.

As for Odighizuwa, my preferred nickname is O-squared but human vowel works.

 

[manxman2601]

Jeff Luc has some Hightower to his game - unsurprisingly at 263lbs. In terms of coverage, which will be the big knock on him, he's not going to be running deep with TEs or RBs but he does very well in a shallow middle zone. He might surprise people athletically at the combine.

And by the way, all highlight videos should be done this way, breaking down the skill sets.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

That's why I currently have Valles late day 3 as my EDGE guy. I think his upside is really, really high. And I like Marcus Hardison's ability to play both inside and out, though I can understand the appeal of "the Human Vowel" and the other guys you've listed.

As an aside, I have keeping Ayers as a very high priority. I've surprised how many people think the Pats should let him walk. He proved to have tremendous value, capable of starting at both DE and LB, and being used in a rotation. BB lauded him quite openly, and compared him to Ninkovich. Just because his snap count decreased when Chandler Jones came back doesn't decrease his value, IMO. We've been desperately needing a versatile rotational piece, and now that we finally have him, I personally wouldn't let Ayers go unless someone throws silly money at him.

I agree about Ayers. The team has struggled mightily to find young talent at DE/OLB for almost the entirety of BB's tenure. Then we find one, and fans seem wanting to replace him with a 1st rounder? It doesnt add up for me. It would be one thing if he was 29-32yrs old like the Mark Anderson or Andre Carter, but hes still only 25. With Ninko's window of high play having to close sooner than later, having a guy that can hold that position right now is more than a luxury.

 

[manxman2601]

I agree about Ayers. The team has struggled mightily to find young talent at DE/OLB for almost the entirety of BB's tenure. Then we find one, and fans seem wanting to replace him with a 1st rounder? It doesnt add up for me. It would be one thing if he was 29-32yrs old like the Mark Anderson or Andre Carter, but hes still only 25. With Ninko's window of high play having to close sooner than later, having a guy that can hold that position right now is more than a luxury.

Has anyone said they want to replace him?

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Has anyone said they want to replace him?

thats a fair point, but he seems to be looked over, and many want the team to take the top DE/olb with a first rounder.

If you dont spend in UFA's, you end up spending in the draft. Both are appropriate ways to spend resources, but I think its harder to find young players to drop in to our system than a more experienced player who has already had some success. I find that especially true for the position Ayers plays. As with every potential signing, if Ayers ends up overly expensive, that could end that relationship quickly. At the same time, you dont want to wave goodbye to Ayers and feel boxed in at the draft and need to overdraft a position.