Most Accurate Mock Drafts Historically

[Wretch]

I have been reading about all of the mock drafts and the draft predictions by supposed draft experts (some sellf appointed), and it begged a question. Which (or who) has been the most accurate historically?

Does nayone know if a predicitive market about the draft has been established?

See the wiki page below for an explanation of a predictive market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_markets

At one point the Department of Defence was going to establish a predictive market to try to predict terrorist attacks.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Does this help?

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml

 

[patchick]

There are a lot of different ways to measure accuracy. TheHuddleReport tracks one way, which not surprisingly makes them look good:
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml
Other measures go by how well individual players were mapped to teams, or how close on average the predicted slot was to the actual slot for each player. (I'd favor that last version, with tolerances for distance weighted by the draft value chart. I.e., missing by 30 spots from round 5 to round 6 is pretty trivial, while missing by 30 spots from round 1 to round 2 is significant.

Overall, I think people generally give the nod to Rick Gosselin's final mock as the gold standard.

 

[PonyExpress]

There are a lot of different ways to measure accuracy. TheHuddleReport tracks one way, which not surprisingly makes them look good:
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml
Other measures go by how well individual players were mapped to teams, or how close on average the predicted slot was to the actual slot for each player. (I'd favor that last version, with tolerances for distance weighted by the draft value chart. I.e., missing by 30 spots from round 5 to round 6 is pretty trivial, while missing by 30 spots from round 1 to round 2 is significant.

Overall, I think people generally give the nod to Rick Gosselin's final mock as the gold standard.

The guy from profootballweekly was dead on last year. It was silly how close he was in the top 15. Also, Mayock predicted Whitner to the Bills. Of course, none of them had any idea the Pats had designs on Maroney. Gosselin fell hook line and sinker for the R. Marshall canard just like everyone else.

 

[Flying Fungi]

The guy from profootballweekly was dead on last year. It was silly how close he was.

is that a buchsbaum joke? :bricks:

 

[PonyExpress]

is that a buchsbaum joke? :bricks:

Can't mock the original draft nerd, even with a bad pun.... RIP, Joel...:rocker:

 

[Irish Hooligan]

There are a lot of different ways to measure accuracy. TheHuddleReport tracks one way, which not surprisingly makes them look good:
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml
Other measures go by how well individual players were mapped to teams, or how close on average the predicted slot was to the actual slot for each player. (I'd favor that last version, with tolerances for distance weighted by the draft value chart. I.e., missing by 30 spots from round 5 to round 6 is pretty trivial, while missing by 30 spots from round 1 to round 2 is significant.

Overall, I think people generally give the nod to Rick Gosselin's final mock as the gold standard.

Here is Monday's by Gosselin just for a read.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...aft/stories/042207dnspomockdraft.324c744.html

 

[NE39]

The guy from profootballweekly was dead on last year. It was silly how close he was in the top 15. Also, Mayock predicted Whitner to the Bills. Of course, none of them had any idea the Pats had designs on Maroney. Gosselin fell hook line and sinker for the R. Marshall canard just like everyone else.

Nolan Nawrocki. I read an article that rated mocks and assign points based on accuracy, and Nawrocki won last year.

 

[Flying Fungi]

Can't mock the original draft nerd, even with a bad pun.... RIP, Joel...:rocker:

yeah

I'll throw some props his way

for the uninformed:

http://apse.dallasnews.com/contest/2003/writing/over250/over250.features.second.html

 

[Irish Hooligan]

yeah

I'll throw some props his way

for the uninformed:

http://apse.dallasnews.com/contest/2003/writing/over250/over250.features.second.html

I knew about 20% of that, thanks for the link, wonderful read.

 

[Flying Fungi]

I knew about 20% of that, thanks for the link, wonderful read.

kind of fascinating to see our guys Pioli and Belichick in there isn't it?

 

[Irish Hooligan]

kind of fascinating to see our guys Pioli and Belichick in there isn't it?

Very interesting. I picture a awkwardly skinny man holding a dog screaming into a phone, LOGAN MANKINS!

 

[Flying Fungi]

Very interesting. I picture a awkwardly skinny man holding a dog screaming into a phone, LOGAN MANKINS!

I was getting something like this:

Oy Vey with the WILFORKin GLAVIN!

 

[Wretch]

Thanks for the info on both the accuracy and Buchsbaum. Very interesting stuff.

I was wondering if anyone compiles mock drafts and then does a statistical analysis of all those mock drafts to predict the outcome of the draft.

I think that you'd have to do something like 99% of all mocks have Russell pick #1 in the first round, 75% of all mock drafts have Johnson as the #2 pick in the first round, etc.

It would be interesting to see how accurate the compiled data would be.

 

[Fixit]

Fascinating article, and at the same time utterly depressing. It was nice to see that Belichick and Pioli held him in such high regard.

Also, he and I both went to SUNY-Albany, so that's nice.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think its a travesty that all the man's work, but for a few small boxes, ended up in the garbage.