More Bell-Cow?

[PatsFanInVa]

New England Patriots 2001 Statistics - Team and Player Stats - ESPN (just change the year in the drop down box to check each player that year)

Caveat: I went by the regular seasons to represent the teams' "character" season-long, but feel free to re-create the exercise using post-season only

Pats SB Teams, leading rushers

Let's call a "Bell Cow" back, for the Pats, a back with >250 carries. For the SB teams, win and lose, we could call it >200, since only 3 Pats teams in the SB had backs w/200 or more carries.

SB Winners - 3 of 5 = "bell cow" teams. AFC-winning teams, 3 of 7 = "Bell cow" teams (i.e., both SB losers, no bell cow.)


2016
Blount 299 carries 18 TD (3.9 YPC average)

2014
Jonas Gray 89 carries 5 TD (IOW, busts the bell cow theory) (4.6 YPC)
(Vereen and Ridley - who? - both had carries in the 90s. My source is awarding "leading" runner by YPC.)

2004
Corey Dillon 345 carries 12 TD (4.7 YPC)

2003
Antowain Smith 182 carries (And Faulk had 178)... 3 TDs (3.5 YPC)
...and away went what was left of Antowain that off-season

2001
Antowain Smith 289 carries 12 TD (4 YPC)


SB losers - 0 "bell cows"

2011
Law Firm 181 carries 11 TDs (3.7 YPC)

2007
Laurence Maroney 185 carries 6 TDs (4.5 YPC)

Non-SB teams, 2001-present, with "Bell Cows" (250 carries = bell cow)

2012, Ridley, 290 carries, 1263 yards, 12 TDs (4.4 YPC)
2002, Antowain Smith, 252 carries, 982 yds, 6 TDs (3.9 YPC)

...and 7 non bell-cow teams.

Conclusion: Guess what? I got a fever, and the only prescription is more bell-cow.


In all seriousness... conclusion: it is what it is. Arrow of causality clearly could be reversed. But interesting.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I'm imagining BB and Ernie Adams discussing strategy and Christopher Walken is in the background going, "You know what this gameplan needs? More bell-cow!"

The last 4 Pats Super Bowls really didn't have much of a running game. Pats both won and lost by the skin of their teeth. The bell-cow hypothesis seems more like correlation than anything else.

Regards,
Chris

 

[patfanken]

Interesting theory. Kind of gets you thinking. Could it be BB looked at the last few seasons of playoff wins and losses and decided that we really haven't been running the ball effectively IN THE PLAYOFFS, and especially in the superbowl, and said, "what do we have to do to run the ball better THEN". And this is what de did. We now have TWO "bell cows" (Burkhead and Gillislee) ready to take on the season and still be fresh for the playoff when it really matters. Lewis and White back eachother up and Foster remains in the background ready to take over when the Pats drop one of Lewis and White.

 

[moosekill]

I also think the cost of running backs are very low this year. We have what $10,000,000 invested in all 4 this year?? Money Ball NFL style.

 

[DaBruinz]

I also think the cost of running backs are very low this year. We have what $10,000,000 invested in all 4 this year?? Money Ball NFL style.

Patriots have 6 RBs under contract currently. Their total cap amounts are $11.6325M though Foster doesn't currently count against the top 51.

Burkhead ($3.15M), Gillislee ($3.97M), White ($1.79M), Lewis (1.4875M), Bolden ($695K), Foster ($540K)

 

[Simpelton]

Interesting theory. Kind of gets you thinking. Could it be BB looked at the last few seasons of playoff wins and losses and decided that we really haven't been running the ball effectively IN THE PLAYOFFS, and especially in the superbowl, and said, "what do we have to do to run the ball better THEN". And this is what de did. We now have TWO "bell cows" (Burkhead and Gillislee) ready to take on the season and still be fresh for the playoff when it really matters. Lewis and White back eachother up and Foster remains in the background ready to take over when the Pats drop one of Lewis and White.

Bell cows are like quarterbacks or president. If you have 2, you actually have 0

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I like the observation above... that they might be thinking what do we do to win it once we're in the playoffs, with NO bell cow. However, the flip side is "what if Gronks injured and Edelman's not making a dent" being credited for the "plan" for Mitchell to emerge.

I'm on the bus - but check the playoff stats. Willing to wager that Blount doubled or tripled carries of closest competitor.

And we did win this years SB - granted, no thanks to Blount. Well a little, for helping to tire those bastids out.

I think it's more like "don't trust Blount in 2017, not paying him like we do."

He might be old and in the way. He might have 3 run-brutal, run-deep seasons left.

Worst case: giants get him, another SB vs. Giants, he kills us.

 

[TommyD4207]

I like the observation above... that they might be thinking what do we do to win it once we're in the playoffs, with NO bell cow. However, the flip side is "what if Gronks injured and Edelman's not making a dent" being credited for the "plan" for Mitchell to emerge.

I'm on the bus - but check the playoff stats. Willing to wager that Blount doubled or tripled carries of closest competitor.

And we did win this years SB - granted, no thanks to Blount. Well a little, for helping to tire those bastids out.

I think it's more like "don't trust Blount in 2017, not paying him like we do."

He might be old and in the way. He might have 3 run-brutal, run-deep seasons left.

Worst case: giants get him, another SB vs. Giants, he kills us.

Legarrette Blount will not be killing anyone after Week 10, unless he ends up playing against the Colts for some reason.

He's Antowain Smith, Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Nice player, but not worth paying for.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Legarrette Blount will not be killing anyone after Week 10, unless he ends up playing against the Colts for some reason.

He's Antowain Smith, Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Nice player, but not worth paying for.

You are very likely correct.

But, black swans and all.