Moneyball and the price of winning in the NFL

[Biffins]

Most value you get from rookies and their very cheap contracts, if you hit on them and they are major contributor you can be in the mix for the SB (of course other things like less injuries and a capable QB are important as well)

half of your list of the Bucs is including very good rookies with major contribution through the year (Vea, Wirfs, Winfield, Godwin, etc) if you don't have them its difficult to have such talent on the cheap thus having a team that is a contender, thats why it is important to hit in the draft

Basically good drafting is how you win Championships. Getting FAs to sign cheap contracts only worked for Pats for a bit and won’t anymore.

 

[Biffins]

Everyone looks like a genius when Brady is your Qb.

Thank you

 

[Ring 6]

Good questions. I'd answer it like this. Stats are not the most important thing. Edelman has more stats than any other Bucs player during their run, even on a per game basis, but that's in large part because the Bucs had more options to spread the ball around to. Edelman benefited from this when it comes to stats. That in no way takes away from his play on the field. He did well to get open as much as he did. It's also true that while he did make a lot of catches he didn't make any singular game changing plays. No TDs, not huge PI penalty, no 40 yard catches (he did have a 35 yarder in the divisional round, but that was the least important game. I'm not trying to take away the 3rd down conversions he made or the yards between the 20s he picked it. But it is interesting how when they needed a score in the super bowl, it was Gronk they want to. He was the guy who made the play to put them first and goal at the 2 yard line.

Evans contributed more to Tampa's success than Edelman did to the Pats. Gronk/Brate and Fournette were able to get good match ups all day in large part because of the focus KC put on Evans and to a lesser extent Godwin. Godwin may not have had a great playoff run in some respects, but he made that huge 50/50 play vs GB which changed field position. GB was one of the only games in which Godwin had a match up worth going to. There was no point attacking the strength of New Orleans and KC when they didn't have to and could easily attack their weakness. Against Washington he had a bad game, but still got 79 yards and a TD. The fact is Tampa just had a lot more weapons so the stats were spread out more, and 2 of the final 3 teams had weaknesses which led Tampa to exploit them with their TEs/RBs. Edelman played a great game but a lot of what he did didn't actually lead to points. It kept drives alive, but he needed someone else to finish. If you want to say he's worth more than what I put that's fine, but the comparison you made wasn't 100% fair.

It certainly was 100% fair. You said your rankings were about the post season and particularly the last 2 games. Edelman was dominant and the 2 guys you have worth a lot more than him were average.
He out produced both of them combined. The patriots also had gronk and they had James white catching 14 passes in the afccg but Edelman out produced both of them because Brady chose to throw to Cameron Brate?

please explain how Evans 11/204 in FOUR GAMES contributed more to winning than Edelmans 26/388 in 3 with a freaking SB MVP did to the Patriots winning the SB.

To put this in perspective extrapolating those numbers into a full 16 games season you just told me a guy who produced at 44 catches for 816 yards contributes more to his team than a guy who contributes 139 catches and 2069 because the guy producing at a 3 game level that’s about a best ever level (and was the best player on the field in the Sb) didn’t make plays that contributed to scoring and the guy who produced at a mediocre level was worth about 2 1/2 times more. You simply can’t be serious.

 

[Ring 6]

Good questions. I'd answer it like this. Stats are not the most important thing. Edelman has more stats than any other Bucs player during their run, even on a per game basis, but that's in large part because the Bucs had more options to spread the ball around to. Edelman benefited from this when it comes to stats. That in no way takes away from his play on the field. He did well to get open as much as he did. It's also true that while he did make a lot of catches he didn't make any singular game changing plays. No TDs, not huge PI penalty, no 40 yard catches (he did have a 35 yarder in the divisional round, but that was the least important game. I'm not trying to take away the 3rd down conversions he made or the yards between the 20s he picked it. But it is interesting how when they needed a score in the super bowl, it was Gronk they want to. He was the guy who made the play to put them first and goal at the 2 yard line.

Evans contributed more to Tampa's success than Edelman did to the Pats. Gronk/Brate and Fournette were able to get good match ups all day in large part because of the focus KC put on Evans and to a lesser extent Godwin. Godwin may not have had a great playoff run in some respects, but he made that huge 50/50 play vs GB which changed field position. GB was one of the only games in which Godwin had a match up worth going to. There was no point attacking the strength of New Orleans and KC when they didn't have to and could easily attack their weakness. Against Washington he had a bad game, but still got 79 yards and a TD. The fact is Tampa just had a lot more weapons so the stats were spread out more, and 2 of the final 3 teams had weaknesses which led Tampa to exploit them with their TEs/RBs. Edelman played a great game but a lot of what he did didn't actually lead to points. It kept drives alive, but he needed someone else to finish. If you want to say he's worth more than what I put that's fine, but the comparison you made wasn't 100% fair.

Oh and this spread the ball around crap is just that.
2018 Brady completed 19.7 passes per game in the post season to people other than Edelman.
2020 Brady completed 13.5 passes per game to people who weren’t Evans or Godwin.
The Patriots threw for 318 per game with 129 going to Edelman 189 to everyone else

The bucs threw for 265 with 109 going to the combined Evans and Godwin. 156 to everyone else.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This.

Everybody was supposed to have a 4-5 year window, rotating between all teams.


Between the salary cap, free agency, a rookie contract scale, inverse draft order and four-team divisions, all owners were sold on the concept that playoff droughts were a thing of the past. No matter how inept their front office, everyone would be in the playoffs and a SB contender every few years. That would result in zero non-sellouts and maximum revenue for each and every team. No long term dynasties like the Yankees of the '50s or Celtics of the '60s that would dampen potential enthusiasm of fans of other teams of other teams within the division. By the time fans of a winning team from a couple years ago were starting to become disinterested, their team was supposed to be a division winner again. Throw in a couple of wild cards and everybody is happy.


The two-decade run by the Patriots was supposed to be impossible. That is the story the 31 others had been sold. That run by the Patriots is far more remarkable than the vast majority realize, based on the rules that were in place.

So well put.

I think people tend to give too much credit to Belichick for things that aren’t really unique to him (can be found in books by Bill Walsh and Paul Brown, which every coach reads and most practice), and then I think he doesn’t get close to enough credit for other things.

The two decade run - the incredible consistency - can only be pulled off with internal consistency within the organization. They ran the same systems on offense and defense; most of the coaches are lifers; because of the way Belichick handles the roster with regard to superstars and manages risk, even the overall win/loss and point differential was consistent (and elite.)

I’m oversimplifying Bill’s decisions and philosophy here, but the point is: Bill’s greatness, to me, never depended on how well ”Joe Average” could fit into the team instead of Tom Brady. Obviously “Joe Average” is average; coaches can’t change that, and if people have believed that he could through wizardry, then right now they’re getting taste of cold reality. But providing a consistently winning blueprint for 20 years is remarkable. Michael Jordan played his entire career and really only had “that winning formula” with Phil Jackson for about six seasons. Egos, complacency, infighting, etc are difficult to navigate with dynasties before even getting into the gravitational pull of parity with the salary cap, draft position, and free agency.

Point here is that Bill already has a legacy of brilliance and excellence that’s unassailable. I never liked the talk that Bill “enhanced” Brady’s play, talent, decisions, leadership, etc. because I don’t think this is any different from any coach-QB relationship, and it diverts attention away from what Bill is actually doing that’s so great and unprecedented. He is the ultimate problem solver. I believe Brady would have been just as good of a QB anywhere else. I also believe he would have had to deal with so much more dysfunction, coaching turnover (and changing offensive systems), destructive egos, and down seasons due to less shrewd risk management.

 

[Brick27]

Most super bowl wins involve a great QB, but a great one that is paid well below his value. Usually (but not always) because he is on his rookie deal.

I’d be curious to see what percentage of Super Bowl winning QBs were on their rookie deal. But alas, I’m lazy

 

[BobDigital]

I’d be curious to see what percentage of Super Bowl winning QBs were on their rookie deal. But alas, I’m lazy

Most. Someone posted something like it before. I'll sum up what I remember

94:SF - very likely cheated the cap
95: DAL- cheap QB contract
96: GB - Rookie contract
97: DEN - Cheated cap
98: DEN - cheated cap
99: STL - rookie contract
00: BAL - low paid qb
01: NWE - rookie con
02: TB - low paid
03: NWE - rookie contract
04: NWE - low paid
05: PIT - rookie contract
06: IND - low paid yr/mild exception
07: NYG - rookie contract
08: PIT - rookie contract
09: NO - low paid yr/mild exception
10: GB - rookie contract
11: NYG - low paid
12: BAL - rookie contract
13: SEA - rookie contract
14: NWE - not too highly paid/exception
15: DEN - not too highly paid/mild exception
16: NWE - mild exception
17: PHI - rookie deal/low paid
18: NWE - mild exception
19: KC - rookie deal
20: TB - exception

generally most winning teams either had QBs on their rookie deal or lower paid QBs. Most of the times higher paid QBs won they weren't paid too much over 13% and usually under. It's the easiest contract to gain cash on and so it matters a lot, but like the 2015 Broncos proved, even if you have a QB being paid who isn't performing well, enough cheap talent can over come it.