Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

[lancerman]

03 to 16 Brady is rare. Greatest QB play ever, no doubt. But they won twice (01 & 17) with Brady as more of a game manager & they can find someone else to fill that role.

People look at Brady’s 01 stats and dismiss it as “game manager” the reality is he was a huge improvement over Drew Bledsoe and showed more pocket awareness and better decision making immediately. He injected life in that team and the 01 squad wasn’t winning a Super Bowl. And that team wasn’t winning a Bledsoe. So the idea Stidham could just fill in is suspect to say the least.

Stidham at this point is just a guy who happens to be on the team in a back up capacity and simply because he is there people are wishfully thinking he is the answer. If we rolled with Stidham, almost every team in the league would be going into next year with a more seasoned or accomplished QB. That’s not hyperbole either.

The idea that he could lead anyone to a SB when he had to get tanked this year from being a back up is just comical. And even if he improved from what we saw, that doesn’t even make him close to average for a starter.

If you honestly think we need to move on from Brady, then realize Stidham probably isn’t going to be the answer, a free agent will cost way above their actual value to this team, and your better off taking your chances drafting. And if all that likely holds true, having Brady an extra year or two while we make plays to draft a QB isn’t the worst case scenario.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I will admit, I trust belichick on this 100%.

We should trust him. Despite what the draftniks or the Garrapolites say I'm confident he will make the right decision for the good of the franchise

 

[lancerman]

I really wish Brady would be happy with 15 mil a year. But there’s no chance in hell of that and frankly if he accepted that the Union would probably kill him over it.

It’s a crappy situation.

If we offered him 15 million, it would be such an insult that I would have no problem with him telling the team piss off and for him to go someplace like Buffalo or Indy where it would be a middle finger to the team to watch him succeed at a team we constantly dominated with him.

Guys like Fitzpatrick will cost 15 million

 

[RobertWeathers]

I really wish Brady would be happy with 15 mil a year. But there’s no chance in hell of that and frankly if he accepted that the Union would probably kill him over it.

It’s a crappy situation.

He's done it before.

 

[Chevrolet]

People look at Brady’s 01 stats and dismiss it as “game manager” the reality is he was a huge improvement over Drew Bledsoe and showed more pocket awareness and better decision making immediately. He injected life in that team and the 01 squad wasn’t winning a Super Bowl. And that team wasn’t winning a Bledsoe. So the idea Stidham could just fill in is suspect to say the least.

Stidham at this point is just a guy who happens to be on the team in a back up capacity and simply because he is there people are wishfully thinking he is the answer. If we rolled with Stidham, almost every team in the league would be going into next year with a more seasoned or accomplished QB. That’s not hyperbole either.

The idea that he could lead anyone to a SB when he had to get tanked this year from being a back up is just comical. And even if he improved from what we saw, that doesn’t even make him close to average for a starter.

If you honestly think we need to move on from Brady, then realize Stidham probably isn’t going to be the answer, a free agent will cost way above their actual value to this team, and your better off taking your chances drafting. And if all that likely holds true, having Brady an extra year or two while we make plays to draft a QB isn’t the worst case scenario.

I think your points are right on the money. If Brady retires or leaves, I think the Pats are in store for at least 2 non playoff years with low expectations but with the slack and time to roster build with a young talented core and pre peak well priced free agents who can fit in.

2-3 down years in order to get back to championship contenders is a price many would be willing to accept.

 

[lancerman]

Yup. The GOAT. Fair enough but do you think he’s that player anymore? I don’t see it. He is still a good NFL QB, but he’s not where he was even two or three years ago. He’s breaking down physically, which happens to everyone at that age, even someone as health/exercise diligent as Brady. Do you think he’ll be an elite QB next year when he’s 43? If so, why?

Yup. The GOAT. Fair enough but do you think he’s that player anymore? I don’t see it. He is still a good NFL QB, but he’s not where he was even two or three years ago. He’s breaking down physically, which happens to everyone at that age, even someone as health/exercise diligent as Brady. Do you think he’ll be an elite QB next year when he’s 43? If so, why?

Tom Brady 2019: 60.8% completion. 4057 yards, 6.6 average, 24TD's, 8INT's, 88 rating

Tom Brady 2013: 60.5% completion, 4343 yards, 6.9 average, 25TD's, 11INT's, 87.3 rating.

He has virtually the same stats. 2013 was the other year people used to point to and say he was awful and that he was done. It was also a year people universally agreed to be one of his worst offensive casts, this one might be worse.

He's playing at the same level he did 6 years ago when he went through a similar transitional situation and faced lots of losses on his offense.

This is Brady's floor with a bad receiving cast. You can do a lot worse with a bad receiving cast. Baker Mayfield was worse in every category but yards per average with Beckham and Landry and I can guarantee you that no team would advise on giving up on a first round QB this earlier.

Don't let the number of his age mirage to the actual patterns we see in his career. Guys who are done are Peyton Manning and Brett Farve who fell off a cliff (thanks Kellerman) and literally have completely lost physical ability. Brady is doing what he's always done in the situation. He's being more risk averse and forcing receivers to make plays because he doesn't trust them. He didn't magically get worse from playing lights out earlier in the season before Edelman and Gordan got banged up and Brown became a disaster

 

[luuked]

Tom Brady 2019: 60.8% completion. 4057 yards, 6.6 average, 24TD's, 8INT's, 88 rating

Tom Brady 2013: 60.5% completion, 4343 yards, 6.9 average, 25TD's, 11INT's, 87.3 rating.

He has virtually the same stats. 2013 was the other year people used to point to and say he was awful and that he was done. It was also a year people universally agreed to be one of his worst offensive casts, this one might be worse.

He's playing at the same level he did 6 years ago when he went through a similar transitional situation and faced lots of losses on his offense.

This is Brady's floor with a bad receiving cast. You can do a lot worse with a bad receiving cast. Baker Mayfield was worse in every category but yards per average with Beckham and Landry and I can guarantee you that no team would advise on giving up on a first round QB this earlier.

Don't let the number of his age mirage to the actual patterns we see in his career. Guys who are done are Peyton Manning and Brett Farve who fell off a cliff (thanks Kellerman) and literally have completely lost physical ability. Brady is doing what he's always done in the situation. He's being more risk averse and forcing receivers to make plays because he doesn't trust them. He didn't magically get worse from playing lights out earlier in the season before Edelman and Gordan got banged up and Brown became a disaster

I challenge you to find even half of the inaccurate throws he has had this season overthrowing or underthrowing wide open players. Those weird misses to RBs in the flat or touch passes to crossing players were gimmes even in 2013.

Just because summary stats look similar it doesn't mean that the cause behind them is or that they are describing the same thing. Those situations always remind me of Anscombe's quartet.. a kinda (in)famous set of data in statistics/data viz.

 

[BTTA]

I've pondered and posted on this question as well. At what point is the "Brady advantage" worth the $20M - $30M a year it'll take to keep him?

2020 Quarterback Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap
2020 AFC competition QB cap hits:

• Colts, Brisset, $21M
• Mayfield, Browns, $9M
• Darnold, Jets, $8M
• Allen, Bills, $6M
• Fitz, Dolphins, $6M and Rosen, $2M
• Mahomes, Chiefs, $5M
• Watson, Texans, $4M
• Jackson, Ravens, $3M
• Roeth, Steelers, $33M and/or Rudolph $1M
• Brady, Patriots, $20-30M and/or Stidham, $1M

 

[Chevrolet]

Tom Brady 2019: 60.8% completion. 4057 yards, 6.6 average, 24TD's, 8INT's, 88 rating

Tom Brady 2013: 60.5% completion, 4343 yards, 6.9 average, 25TD's, 11INT's, 87.3 rating.

He has virtually the same stats. 2013 was the other year people used to point to and say he was awful and that he was done. It was also a year people universally agreed to be one of his worst offensive casts, this one might be worse.

He's playing at the same level he did 6 years ago when he went through a similar transitional situation and faced lots of losses on his offense.

This is Brady's floor with a bad receiving cast. You can do a lot worse with a bad receiving cast. Baker Mayfield was worse in every category but yards per average with Beckham and Landry and I can guarantee you that no team would advise on giving up on a first round QB this earlier.

Don't let the number of his age mirage to the actual patterns we see in his career. Guys who are done are Peyton Manning and Brett Farve who fell off a cliff (thanks Kellerman) and literally have completely lost physical ability. Brady is doing what he's always done in the situation. He's being more risk averse and forcing receivers to make plays because he doesn't trust them. He didn't magically get worse from playing lights out earlier in the season before Edelman and Gordan got banged up and Brown became a disaster

I think you are not looking at QBR (which most experts think is a better measure of QB performance than "passer rating"). See below. QBR was not developed or used un til 2011 , before that it was simply called passer rating

Here are Brady's QBR from 2013 to 2019:

2013 62.1
2014 76.2
2015 68
2016 79.1
2017 73.2
2018 66.6
2019 52.5


Now you may say,"stats are for losers" or you may say "stats don't lie". I believe they don't lie.
These data suggest that over the past 4 years, using the best statistic available for measuring QB performance, he has had a consistent and fairly steep decline in his QB performance as measured by QBR.
This matches up with most peoples unbiased observations.


As an FYI:



QBR=
It incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team's level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammates to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency. It was created to be a more meaningful alternative to the passer rating but has been met with criticism among fans and commentators alike.


Passer Rating= depends only on passing statistics statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in


According to ESPN, QBR is a more complete and meaningful alternative to the passer rating, which remains the official NFL measure of quarterback performance

 

[Biffins]

Yup. The GOAT. Fair enough but do you think he’s that player anymore? I don’t see it. He is still a good NFL QB, but he’s not where he was even two or three years ago. He’s breaking down physically, which happens to everyone at that age, even someone as health/exercise diligent as Brady. Do you think he’ll be an elite QB next year when he’s 43? If so, why?

Dude the AFCCG and SB I am referring to was less than 12 months ago.

There’s zip, velocity, etc in his throws. I don’t see any physical diminishment. Pocket movement is fluid. I am sorry but I blame surrounding cast. You just look at results.

You’re saying the passing game has diminished so it must be Brady. The fact the OL is diminished. Run game is non existent. WR talent is pathetic. TE talent is non existent. To you none of these factors matter. You are blaming Brady. When I ask which part of his game do you believe he’s failing on, you don’t have an answer.

Brady can throw deep. He can throw the slants with zip and in a low catchable position away from CB. He moves fluidly to avoid sacks. And he interpets defenses quickly.

There are lots of reasons that the passing game has fallen off a cliff. I don’t believe Brady is one of them and I think BB doesn’t either when he dissects the tape. Once they re-tool the passing game next season and bring some proper WR/TE talent and get some balance with running game, you can give all the credit to the new incoming players. Brady gets all the blame and none of the credit.

2 years ago Brady was NFL MVP. Top 4 passing receivers. Gronk 1084 yards. Cooks 1080 yards, Amendola 659 yards, Hogan 438 yards. Gone, gone, gone, gone. Insane turnover. And all replaced by pathetic talents with the exception of Edelman’s return who is always double covered.

But yeah, let’s blame Brady

 

[BTTA]

The other assumption buried in these scenarios is that Belichick sticks around.

 

[Biffins]

I think you are not looking at QBR (which most experts think is a better measure of QB performance than "passer rating"). See below. QBR was not developed or used un til 2011 , before that it was simply called passer rating

Here are Brady's QBR from 2013 to 2019:

2013 62.1
2014 76.2
2015 68
2016 79.1
2017 73.2
2018 66.6
2019 52.5


Now you may say,"stats are for losers" or you may say "stats don't lie". I believe they don't lie.
These data suggest that over the past 4 years, using the best statistic available for measuring QB performance, he has had a consistent and fairly steep decline in his QB performance as measured by QBR.
This matches up with most peoples unbiased observations.


As an FYI:



QBR=
It incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team's level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammates to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency. It was created to be a more meaningful alternative to the passer rating but has been met with criticism among fans and commentators alike.


Passer Rating= depends only on passing statistics statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in


According to ESPN, QBR is a more complete and meaningful alternative to the passer rating, which remains the official NFL measure of quarterback performance

Brady’s QBR from 2010 to 2013 went down in almost identical fashion to the decline now. Nothing was wrong with Brady. His supporting cast sucked donkeyballs in 2013. Pats FO fixed WR/TE situation and Brady won 3 SBs, 2 SB MVP and 1 NFL MVP in next 5 years.

QBR doesn’t lie. But it’s measuring passing efficiency which isn’t just the QB

 

[IllegalContact]

If he didn’t get 30M in past years, he’s not getting 30M now

if he does get 30M, for get about picking up good skill guys to put around him.

I would rather let him go than listen to another year of people pining for someone like AB

 

[Biffins]

If he didn’t get 30M in past years, he’s not getting 30M now

if he does get 30M, for get about picking up good skill guys to put around him.

I would rather let him go than listen to another year of people pining for someone like AB

Glad you’re not running the FO.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Glad you’re not running the FO.

At a fundamental level why is he wrong? Explain.

The baseline is Tom getting a 1yr $30m deal.

 

[Soliel]

All this talk is premature. There’s still the playoffs, what if we win the bowl with substandard receivers? It’s not impossible

 

[lancerman]

I think you are not looking at QBR (which most experts think is a better measure of QB performance than "passer rating"). See below. QBR was not developed or used un til 2011 , before that it was simply called passer rating

Here are Brady's QBR from 2013 to 2019:

2013 62.1
2014 76.2
2015 68
2016 79.1
2017 73.2
2018 66.6
2019 52.5


Now you may say,"stats are for losers" or you may say "stats don't lie". I believe they don't lie.
These data suggest that over the past 4 years, using the best statistic available for measuring QB performance, he has had a consistent and fairly steep decline in his QB performance as measured by QBR.
This matches up with most peoples unbiased observations.


As an FYI:



QBR=
It incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team's level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammates to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency. It was created to be a more meaningful alternative to the passer rating but has been met with criticism among fans and commentators alike.


Passer Rating= depends only on passing statistics statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in


According to ESPN, QBR is a more complete and meaningful alternative to the passer rating, which remains the official NFL measure of quarterback performance

The only expert who thinks that fake ESPN stat is worth a damn is Skip Bayless.

According to QBR, Jameis Winston had a better season than Aaron Rodgers. It was literally bs designed to make Tim Tebow look good.

At one point Charlie Batch had the greatest individual QBR in a game. This was a game he threw for under 200 yards and had 2 picks.

They also constantly change the formula for the stat.

Sorry but most sites that discuss football will laugh people out of the room for using QBR with any authority. It's widely considered a joke. Famously even. There's probably no single more controversial football stat than QBR to the point where alot of stat sites don't even list it.

 

[p8ryts]

For purposes of discussion:

The current NFL salary cap is $188 million and is expected to increase by $8 million next year. The Patriots are projected to have $49 million in cap space, which sounds good until you consider that both Indy and Miami will be $100 million under. Also, Buffalo will be $89 million under, Baltimore $48 million, the Jete $53 million, etc. Signing the team's own important free agents and competing in the marketplace will be a challenge.

Tom Brady's contract is $23 million and retaining him for 2020 likely will be north of that, perhaps significantly. With so many high-profile free agents on the team, aging guys like Edelman, etc. and a brutal schedule, next season is shaping up to be a pivotal retooling campaign no matter what -- perhaps the most "transitional" year of BB's tenure including prospective key front office and coaching departures (Caserio, McDaniels).

The argument FOR moving on from Brady is strong because: (1) his quality of play no longer is "elite," as in being a prime difference maker, (2) his contract money arguably could be put to better use shoring up other positions, (3) the roster might not be strong enough across the board to benefit from Brady's leadership and experience and (4) the team must establish a new identity to be competitive post-Brady.

My primary concern is that for Brady to be effective in 2020, he will need a much stronger supporting cast (skill players) than he has now AND a more solid OL in front of him PLUS a strong defense that won't force the offense into playing catch-up -- something vintage Brady was capable of overcoming. With crucial transitional moves looming both organizationally and with player personnel, accomplishing that appears doubtful. Last year the pieces were in place for Brady, this year they COULD have been if not for bad luck (injuries, AB fiasco). Next year, things look pretty nebulous.

Put me in the blow it up camp. Let Brady, McDaniels, Caserio go, might lose Dante (would hate that) and Judge. Keep OL intact, injuries really impacted running game this year. Keep interior DL intact, and as many LB's as possible. New safety blood needed, maybe move Williams back. Cb's fine, BB will find another undrafted. Move Harry to Hernandez TE role, draft or sign deep threat and someone that can actually get open against man coverage. Go with Stidham if they BB thinks he has possibility. Finally if all else fails, go 0-16 and draft Trevor what's him name from Clemson. Even if we tank we will do it better than anyone else.

 

[Tunescribe]

Put me in the blow it up camp. Let Brady, McDaniels, Caserio go, might lose Dante (would hate that) and Judge. Keep OL intact, injuries really impacted running game this year. Keep interior DL intact, and as many LB's as possible. New safety blood needed, maybe move Williams back. Cb's fine, BB will find another undrafted. Move Harry to Hernandez TE role, draft or sign deep threat and someone that can actually get open against man coverage. Go with Stidham if they BB thinks he has possibility. Finally if all else fails, go 0-16 and draft Trevor what's him name from Clemson. Even if we tank we will do it better than anyone else.

Some good ideas in there but I don't see BB ever tanking.

 

[lancerman]

Some good ideas in there but I don't see BB ever tanking.

Belichick's 67, he's probably going after Shula's record, and his team is 12-4 and in the playoffs. We aren't going to be the most dominant team in the league every single year. I think some people got spoiled that last decade where only 2013 was a real mediocre year.

There's no reason for him to blow that up and tank. Especially with a very large and important chunk of our roster coming back and lots of talent on rookie deals we want to take advantage of.