Minimal Cap Increase for 2013

[patman52]

Not so sure. The guy I'd point to is Reggie Wayne, who reportedly seriously considered signing with the Pats last offseason before re-signing with Indy for 3 years at $17.5M ($7.5M guaranteed). Wayne turned 34 a few weeks ago, and has 97 receptions for 1234 yards with a new rookie QB with 2 games left to play. His receiving skills haven't lost much at all, and his leadership has been instrumental in leading a young team back to the playoffs. Guys with the consistency of Wayne and Welker are rare.



I'd personally rather have Welker and draft Markus Wheaton or Da'Rick Rodgers day 2. But that's JMHO.

Yeah, I would love to see Welker sign for that with the Pats, but he won't.
He is hoping to to get tagged one more time and Volmer may get play, even with the bad back. A team will need to put injury protection in there in the form of a 2 stage bonus but i think he could get a very good 8+ contract.
And I think Miami may be the landing spot. Add welker's tag and Volmer's number they will just be enough to sign the rookies.

 

[mgteich]

How much is Welker worth to other teams? I would guess that there would be lots of teams willing pay Welker $30M over 3 years, with at least $16M guaranteed.

The best candidates are teams with young quarterbacks and lots of cap room. My suspicion is that the patriots wouldn't make this deal because of the effects on later caps.

$12M for one year makes much more sense, unless we have to franchise Talib.

Welker seems like a fairly reasonable guy, he loves playing with Brady and for the Pats, and probably realizes its his best fit. I think it's more about pride than anything else. If the brain trust sat down and had an honest "we screwed up and you saved us" discussion, maybe there would be some basis for discussion going forward. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. :confused2:

 

[Deus Irae]

I think you might be being a little harsh on Wilson at Safety. He is a rookie after all. How about waiting until next year to judge the kid as having Chungs coverage skills.

Why on Earth would I do that? We're talking about the current state of the safeties and needs for next year, not some aspirational future where Tavon Wilson morphs into a coverage safety during the offseason.

 

[mayoclinic]

The cap relief candidates would be Brady, Mankins, and Wilfork. I dont think they would go deeper into Mankins. Wilfork to me is the interesting one. If hes at that stage where Belichick thinks its time to move away and get a draft pick he can do it and create almost $3.5 million in room. I havent heard anything about him angling for a new deal though and usually that seems to be what gets Belichick going with the trades.

Big Vince has exceeded their expectations for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a 2-3 year extension as a result to help manage his remaining cap hits better. Seymour was a different situation altogether. He didn't live up to his extension, which I always said was a test, and they weren't sure he would which is why it was a 3 year extension in his prime. He didn't play well hurt and he was hurt a lot and he was vocal about his deal and never exactly entirely all in. Like Milloy he had the potential to be a negative leader in the locker room. Hence they jumped at chance to flip him for a future first. .

Wilfork isn't going anywhere. As Mo says, he's exceeded expectations, both on and off the field. He's emerged as the strongest leader on the team after Brady, and the biggest impact player on the defense. Even the mediots have stopped calling him a "nose tackle" and have started to realize that his impact far exceeds his stats. His conditioning and stamina are extraordinary, and he seems to just get stronger and better. He just turned 31, and will be 33 when his contract expires. Ted Washington was 35 when he anchored the Pats' defense to a Super Bowl. It's not at all out of the question to think that the Pats might extend Wilfork for 2-3 more years and restructure his deal, freeing up some cap space in the process. His leadership alone makes him valuable. Hew's clearly "all in", as Mo puts it. It's just a question of how long he wants to play.

 

[mgteich]

It is late in the year. This post is a strong candidate for the worst analysis of the year.

Wilfork is likely to be here as long as Brady and Belichick.

Wilfork to me is the interesting one. If hes at that stage where Belichick thinks its time to move away and get a draft pick he can do it and create almost $3.5 million in room. I havent heard anything about him angling for a new deal though and usually that seems to be what gets Belichick going with the trades.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I don't see the market for a 32 YO Wes Welker than most of you do. I don't think there is any team out there that thinks he is going to be as productive without Brady.

I am not saying he still won't be an upper echelon WR, just not one that a team will give 23 mill dollars to. I think Brady is going to play for 4 more years I rather see Bowe in here. A 28 year old in his prime who will be in his prime for the remaining 4 years of his career. My guess is that he would want 30 mill over the next 3 years. So a five year contract of a 20 mill bonus, with the 2 years fully guaranteed and partials in the 3rd and 4th year and the fifth no guarantees at all. Salaries of 3 mill, 5, 7. 8, 10. or you can add a more to the SB ,add phoney years to the back end. He wont care, all he is interested is how much money in the 1st three years that he knows he will see.

Bowe is a PITA inconsistent performer looking for a top of the market long term deal who despite familiarity with the core system might take more than 3 years if he ever assimilates with as demanding a guy as the one Cassel once backed up under center.

Better to roll the risk dice short term (Welker is looking for less money and half as long term) with the devil you know.

KC may decide to re tag him just to flip him for something. Pioli should have flipped him back when he was cleaning house. Haley likely talked him out of it as he saw himself as some WR's guru.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bowe is a PITA inconsistent performer looking for a top of the market long term deal who despite familiarity with the core system might take more than 3 years if he ever assimilates with as demanding a guy as the one Cassel once backed up under center. Better to roll the risk dice short term (Welker is looking for less money and half as long term) with the devil you know.

Agreed. Bowe is not the kind of guy I want to sink that kind of money into. Too inconsistent.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It is late in the year. This post is a strong candidate for the worst analysis of the year.

Wilfork is likely to be here as long as Brady and Belichick.

And this is a candidate for insulting a gift horse in the mouth post of the year. Jason has been kind enough to replace Miguel's cap page here even though he lacks the depth of team dynamics knowledge to make player assessments. Although a I recall Miguel was a pretty bottom line players should get what they can and deserve it kind of analyst here, contrary to those among us who look for emotional connections and family discounts...or believe players should take whatever we offer and if they don't they are likely greedy bastids destined to fail.

And I think there are more teams with savvy and accurate veteran QB's who will be interested in Welker. One in the Colorado Rockie comes immediately to mind.

 

[mayoclinic]

It is late in the year. This post is a strong candidate for the worst analysis of the year. Wilfork is likely to be here as long as Brady and Belichick.

And this is a candidate for insulting a gift horse in the mouth post of the year.

No need to get hostile. I disagreed with Jason's assessment regarding Wilfork, but there was certainly no need to make it personal, and his cap assessment is much appreciated. None of us has a monopoly on being right. Certainly not me.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo, you and I didn't completely see eye to eye on this one back last spring, and my personal take is that there was something to be said for each point of view. I was all for keeping Welker, but felt that locking up the TEs was the priority for the offense moving forward, and didn't want to see a long term deal for Welker preclude that. I'm guessing that was a consideration for the team. In any case, that's a done deal now. You've always been the champion of the "Welker is money in the bank" point of view, and he's proven you right again this season, and I freely admit that I, like most, probably underestimated him. I personally think that the offense is better when Brady isn't targeting Welker 18 times in a game, but there's no doubting Wes' value to the offense, and his reliability.

I wonder if there's some wiggle room for the FO to eat some "humble pie" and go back to WW and say something along the lines of "now that we've been able to lock up the young TE for the long haul, it changes our ability to focus on a long term deal", without making it personal. IDK if something like that would work. Welker buys into the team concept, and he understands that it's a business, not personal.

If so, I wonder what it would take to retain Welker. Would something like a 3 year $8M fully guaranteed deal do it? He's already made $9.55M this year unde the franchise tag, so he would walk away with almost $34M for 4 years on top of the $17M he's already made. Don't know how the cap figures could be finagled, but it would certainly be less than hitting him with the franchise tag again. I know Welker reportedly turned down 2 years fully guaranteed at $16M last season, but there's a big difference between the security of$16M and $34M. I'm just winging this one - it doesn't seem like there's a lot of wiggle room between the cap and what's already been on the table. As you say (somewhat more bluntly), the ship may already have sailed on this one.

I guarantee you he'd take that. They'd never offer it. They had more reason to offer it last season and they actually backtracked off the $16M guarantee. I think 3/$25M with $18-19M guaranteed would have done it then even though Wes was likely looking for 4/$36 and something just north of $20M guaranteed (which would have provided some cap flexibility like Jonathan always preaches). Because he is reasonable and they were unreasonable and failed to meet him half way nothing happened. For whatever reason they short sold him, be it rationalizing they are trying to protect him from himself (Wayne Chrebet syndrome) or because like some here and elsewhere they never really wrapped their heads around how good he truly is (although this year only underscored that given how infrequently all the guys who made him dispensable actually showed up or played.).

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't know why the mods keep moving threads. It makes it hard to find things and keep discussion going, and seems counterproductive.

Reiss notes the "Rise of Hoomanawanui" on yesterday's offensive snap count:

Snaps: Rise of Hoomanawanui - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Daniel Fells has clearly been pushed way down the depth chart, which makes him a potential cap casualty, especially if Jake Ballard appears to be healthy for 2013. Ballard and Hoomanawanui are both RFAs for 2013, and both are young - Hoomanawanui will be 25 next July, and Ballard just turned 25 3 days ago. In contrast, Fells turns 30 next September and will count $1.65M against the cap in 2013 and almost $2.2M against the cap in 2014, a lot for a guy who's at the bottom of the depth chart. Hoomanawanui also has more versatility, including being able to play the FB position, which could save a roster spot, and has shown the ability to be a downfield threat as well as a blocker.

Cutting Fells would save almost $1M in 2013 and almost $2M in 2014, which would go a long ways towards signing those 2 guys. Gronk, Hernandez, Ballard and Hoomanawanui would be a great TE group, all 25 or under.

 

[mayoclinic]

Looking at some possible places to save some cap $ for 2013:

1. Any recovery of the Jonathan Fanene $ - seems like a longshot.
2. Any restructuring/extension of Brady or Wilfork. Both have big cap hits, and both are foundational players who should be extended beyond their current contracts, allowing for some potential current cap relief.
3. Possible restructuring of Mankins' deal. I'm not a capologist, and am not sure how much amortization can be manipulated.
4. Cut/restructure Gostkowksi. He counts almost $3.5M towards the cap this year and almost $4Mnext, and isn't worth it. Cutting him would save $1.8M this year and $3M for 2014. I'm guessing the team will talk to him about restructuring, and could cut him if he won't do it. Decent kickers can be found in FA or as UDFAs, and Gost isn't that enough better right now to justify the big salary.
5. Cut/restructure Dan Connolly. He counts over $3.3M towards the cap this year and over $4M in 2014, and cutting him would save $1.1M this year and $3M next year. Donald Thomas has emerged as a solid LG. If the Pats are stuck with Mankins' contract, they can save money by moving Mankins to RG and dumping Connolly's contract if they are strapped for space. Again, not something they probably want to do, but if there are some hard choices, it's an option.
6. Restructure/cut Steve Gregory. He counts for $2M towards the cap this year and $3M next year. Cutting him would only save about $500K this year, but , almost $2.4M for 2014. If he's going to be a backup safety and if Tavon Wilson is progressing, cutting Gregory and getting a better FA safety (Kenny Phillips) for a bit more $$ would be an option.
7. Cutting Daniel Fells. As mentioned above, this would free up almost $1M in 2013 and $1.8M in 2014, which would help to sign RFAs Ballard and Hoomanawanui. That would give us a solid long term TE group in addition to Gronk and Hernandez.
8. Small fry. Guys Spencer Larsen ($750K savings) and James Develin ($500K savings) are nice for depth, but if we need to scrape for pennies to sign guys like Ballard and Hoomanawanui who are more likely to make the roster and provide needed depth and versatility, it's an option.

Some tough choices and none of them particularly desirably, but in a tight budget era anyone who is not outplaying their contract or a long term building block has to be a potential target. I'm not sure how much money could be freed up, but I'm guessing a fair amount.