Championship Sunday Predictions
Only two weeks of football left until the dark days of winter suck all the joy out of our lives absent football. Plenty to say in the writeups this week. So here is the spread difference record.
Neither game is in a high confidence bracket. But would be nice to close out the playoffs at 9-4, so pulling for two wins ATS this week. I feel good about its chances. And let's not forget the over under record. With three covers the model will finish one game below 500%.
And now the predictions:
NFC Championship Game
Two division rivals will battle it out in the City of Brotherly Love, er… we’ll just go with Philadelphia, which gets to host the NFC Championship game thanks to the Commanders defeating the Lions last week. The two previous meetings were both competitive games that went late into the fourth quarter before being decided. In Week 11, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, with his second touchdown putting the game away with four minutes left. The second meeting saw the Commanders stage a great comeback. Down two scores going into the fourth quarter, Washington punched it in three times to win 36-33. However, that was with Kenny Pickett at the helm for the majority of the game. I still think this rubber match is shaping up to be a good one.
Barkley—this essentially comes down to him. He rushed for 150 yards (5.6 YPC) and 146 yards (6.0 YPC) with two touchdowns, respectively, in the two games against the Commanders. Washington isn’t just struggling against the Eagles; they’ve struggled to stop the run all year, ranking 30th in rush defense. That doesn’t bode well against the Eagles' second-ranked rushing offense in the league.
Two great forces collide. The Eagles' defense has been spectacular, leading the league in both total defense and scoring (including the playoffs). Washington, on the other hand, leads the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 30.25 PPG over their past four games. However, their defense has allowed 23.5 PPG over that same span.
I think the Eagles will do some self-scouting this week, which will lead them back to the formula that slowed Daniels and Washington’s offense down in Week 11. According to NFL Insights, the Eagles stayed disciplined, blitzing only five times and limiting Daniels to 18 yards on seven carries. In the second matchup, Washington went empty on 22.2% of their snaps, averaging 11.7 yards per play. This was a stark contrast to Week 11, where they averaged just 1.8 yards per play in the same scenario.
Both teams enter the game with a +6 turnover differential. It’s hard to quantify the impact of turnovers in the second game, as Washington turned it over five times while Philly turned it over twice. Looking back at the first matchup, Philadelphia won with the lone turnover being a Daniels interception, which led to a 39-yard touchdown run two plays later. In the second game, Hurts went out early. I lean toward Philly winning that game handily if Hurts had been healthy and they’d been gifted five turnovers.
Neither team has turned the ball over in the postseason, but it’s tough not to believe that whichever team wins the turnover battle in this game punches their ticket to New Orleans. But...what sways me in this one is history. There is just way too much of it against Washington, its too much for me to be able to take a road team in a championship game with a rookie QB. I think history prevails, the Eagles play the cleaner game and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl on February 9th. I am struggling a bit with taking Washington and the points, but I do think it's the play in this one. I am not as confident in the over as the picker is, but I do lean over. The weather definitely favors scoring with the forecast calling for clear and low 40's at kickoff.
AFC Championship Game
The Bills and Chiefs are set to clash in the AFC Championship game, a showdown between two of the league's most electric quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. While Buffalo has had the upper hand in the regular season, winning four straight matchups since 2021, Kansas City owns the postseason, with three consecutive playoff victories over the Bills, including last year’s nail-biting 27-24 divisional round win. This rubber match sets the stage for what promises to be another instant classic.
Buffalo got the better of Kansas City in Week 11, winning 30-21 at home in a game that saw the Chiefs commit two turnovers to the Bills’ one. The Chiefs were limited to just three explosive plays in that game, tying their lowest total since 2018. Despite their struggles to hit big plays, Kansas City’s efficiency shone through, finishing the season ranked 10th in offensive success rate (46.2%). However, their inability to generate chunk plays (ranking 31st in explosive play rate at 10.6%) continues to linger, and it was a factor in their Week 11 loss.
For the Bills, Khalil Shakir has emerged as a star this postseason, accounting for 33.3% of Buffalo’s receptions— the highest team share by a player in the playoffs since Travis Kelce in 2022. Speaking of Kelce, Buffalo held him to just two receptions for eight yards on four targets in Week 11, his fourth-fewest receiving yards in a game since 2016. Mahomes did not target Kelce in the red zone in that matchup, a rarity that the Chiefs will need to address if they hope to take full advantage of Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Kansas City’s offensive line remains a concern. Since Week 15, left guard Joe Thuney has been filling in at left tackle, allowing an 11.3% pressure rate across 159 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, stepping in at left guard, has allowed an 11.9% pressure rate, including a team-high seven pressures against Houston last week. The Bills’ pass rush, while not elite, will look to exploit this weakness, as limiting Mahomes' time in the pocket could be the key to slowing Kansas City’s offense.
The Bills’ fourth-ranked rushing offense will once again try to outrun Kansas City’s 10th-ranked rushing defense. Buffalo ran for 104 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11, controlling the tempo with over 34 minutes of possession. If Buffalo can replicate that performance and keep Mahomes off the field, it could be a long night for Kansas City. However, the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed just 12.5 points per game over the last month, will look to force Allen into mistakes like the interception he threw in their previous meeting, one of only six on the season.
The Chiefs are slight home favorites (-2) with an over/under of 47.5. My personal advice, up until now, has been to never bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. But the Bills' ability to dictate pace with their run game and Shakir’s performance in the passing game this post-season gives them an edge. Ultimately, this comes down to execution in the red zone, and Buffalo’s 2nd best 68.4% red zone conversion rate could be the difference. I am going against Mahomes in this one taking the points (just to make myself feel better about the bet) and I think Buffalo heads to New Orleans to take on the Eagles. I also agree the over should hit especially if the current forecast holds for Sunday (partly cloudy in the mid to low 20's at kickoff).
