Week 16 Predictions
Note: Had an eventful week so running a bit behind on these. I will finish the writeups tomorrow. Hit a bit of a wall tonight.
Only three weeks left. Hard to believe the season has flown by so fast. It also means three weeks left of full slate football to bet on. Enjoy it folks. You'll be missing it in no time. As stated last week I included the record by spread differential.
Just a quick note, the sweet spot for the spread differential is 6+:
Model 1 at 6+ is 67%
Model 2 at 6+ is 66%
Head Scratchers
Texans @ Chiefs
The Texans head to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in a matchup that could be a sneaky thriller. Over the past month, Houston has been on a roll offensively, putting up 26 points per game (ppg) while allowing just 18.5 ppg. Their defense has been particularly strong in limiting big plays, holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play (YPP), and they’ve excelled in the red zone with a 54.2% touchdown rate allowed. For an offense that averages just 289.5 yards per game (ypg), Houston has found ways to be efficient, ranking among the league leaders with an 11.1 yards per point (YPPt).
Kansas City’s offense has shown flashes, averaging 22.25 ppg and 332.25 ypg over the past month. However, their red zone struggles stand out—they’ve converted just 50.9% of opportunities into touchdowns. Defensively, the Chiefs have been solid, giving up only 17 ppg, but their 5.2 YPP allowed leaves room for concern, especially against an opportunistic Texans offense. The Chiefs’ defense has also been average against the pass, which could open the door for C.J. Stroud to make plays if Houston’s offensive line can hold up against Kansas City’s pass rush.
The total sits at a low 39.5, reflecting respect for both defenses, but the Texans’ recent scoring surge makes the over intriguing. Houston’s ability to turn limited yardage into points and their stout defensive play suggest they’re live underdogs here. Shamlock might be raising a pint for the Texans, who have every chance to win outright, but don’t count on it being pretty. This one feels like a grind until the final whistle. I assume Mahomes will play this week and I agree with the picker here. I like the points and the over in this one.
Jets @ Rams
I know at first take this seems like a no brainer. I also can't say I don't agree. But here is why the picker came out of the lab with its craziness.
Over the past month, the Jets’ offense has been surprisingly productive, averaging 26.5 points per game (ppg) while allowing 27.75 ppg on the other side. Defensively, the Jets have allowed 5.0 yards per play (YPP), better than the league average, but their red zone defense has been a weak spot, giving up touchdowns on 60% of opponent trips.
The Rams, meanwhile, have been a mixed bag. Over the last four games, they’ve averaged 24.25 ppg and 342.75 yards per game (ypg). The issue for Los Angeles lies in their defense, which has allowed 361 ypg and 24.75 ppg. They’ve struggled to stop the run, giving up 142 rushing yards per game in this span, a stat the Jets’ run-heavy offense could exploit. Offensively, the Rams have been slightly more efficient in the red zone than the Jets, converting 53.8% of their opportunities into touchdowns compared to the Jets’ 53.3%.
The over/under of 46.5 feels right on the money given both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive inconsistencies. The Jets’ ability to control the clock with their ground game and the Rams’ propensity to give up big plays could make this a tight one. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets sneakily cover the spread here. You have cross country flight, looks to be cold in the Meadowlands on Sunday and that could all add to reasons why the Jets hang around. I just can't see the dysfunctional Jets getting up for this one and the Rams are playing for the division. Probably a no play for me.
Eagles @ Commanders
Vikings @ Seahawks
Patriots Football
Patriots @ Buffalo
TNF
SNF
MNF
GOTW
Original
Model 1
Model 2
Eagles @ Commanders
The Eagles travel to Washington to face the Commanders in a divisional clash with playoff implications. Philadelphia comes in as 3.5-point favorites, bolstered by a defense that has been stifling opponents over the past month, allowing just 17 points per game and 281.75 total yards. The Eagles' pass rush has been dominant, averaging 2.8 sacks per game, which sets up a nightmare scenario for Washington's offensive line that has allowed an alarming 17 sacks in their last four outings.
The Commanders’ offense, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, has been productive despite the pressure, averaging 26.5 points per game. Daniels’ mobility has been critical in extending plays, but without wide receiver Noah Brown (out for the season), the focus shifts to rookie Luke McCaffrey and veteran Dyami Brown to pick up the slack. The Eagles' defense, which allows just 4.7 yards per play, could make it a tough day for Daniels and the Commanders offense. On the flipside the Commanders defense allowed 228 rushing yards to Barkley in their last matchup. They will need to stiffen up the run defense to give themselves a chance to win this game.
With an over/under set at 45.5, this game could hinge on whether Washington can protect Daniels long enough to challenge the Eagles’ defense. On the flip side, Philly’s efficient offense, led by Jalen Hurts, continues to produce, scoring 27.5 points per game. The Commanders’ defensive front will need to improve on its 65% red zone touchdown rate allowed to keep the Eagles from running away with this one. It’s a divisional matchup that should deliver plenty of drama—and sacks. The Eagles busted the game open with Barkley in the 4th quarter last time these two teams met in Philly a few weeks ago. I see a tight divisional game again this week. Not sure I have a play here. If forced to I would probably take the points.
Vikings @ Seahawks
The Vikings head to Seattle in what’s shaping up to be a tightly contested matchup. Minnesota enters as 3.5-point favorites, riding a high-powered offense that’s averaged 31.25 points per game over the last month. Kirk Cousins and company have been moving the ball effectively, piling up 371.75 total yards per game. However, the Vikings' defense has been less than stellar, allowing 396 yards per game during this stretch, a number that could give the Seahawks some hope at home.
Seattle, meanwhile, has been grinding out games with its defense, holding opponents to 18.75 points per game over the last four contests. Offensively, though, they’ve struggled to find consistency, averaging just 21.25 points and 290.25 total yards. The Seahawks’ red zone efficiency, sitting at 52.8%, doesn’t inspire much confidence, especially against a Vikings team converting at nearly 59%. Geno Smith will need to elevate his play to keep pace with Minnesota’s explosive attack, particularly if Seattle's ground game continues to sputter, averaging under 3.8 yards per carry in this span.
The over/under is set at a modest 43, reflecting the expectation of a defensive battle. However, the Vikings' defensive vulnerabilities could open the door for Seattle to exceed recent offensive trends, especially at home where they’ve historically been more effective. Weather in Seattle is expected to be clear, so no excuses there. This game feels like a coin flip advantage to whichever team can capitalize in the red zone and limit turnovers.
Patriots Football
Patriots @ Buffalo
The Bills welcome the Patriots to Buffalo in what looks like a mismatch on paper. Buffalo’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging a blistering 38.75 points and 435.5 yards per game over the past month. Josh Allen continues to be a dual-threat headache for defenses, and with a red zone efficiency of nearly 69%, the Patriots’ defense will have its hands full. New England, on the other hand, has struggled mightily, allowing 29.25 points per game in this same stretch while their offense musters just 19.5 points.
For the Patriots, the numbers are grim. They’ve allowed 62% of red zone trips to end in touchdowns, and that won’t cut it against a Bills offense that seems to live in the end zone. Buffalo’s defense has its flaws—allowing nearly 370 yards per game—but against this Patriots’ offense, it’s hard to see them breaking much of a sweat.
The spread is a massive 14 points, and it’s hard to argue with it given the trends. The Bills at home are a juggernaut, while the Patriots look like a team in disarray. With the weather expected to be clear in Orchard Park, the Patriots will need a miracle to keep this one close. If the Bills jump out early, this could turn into a rout before halftime. Safe to say, the leprechaun isn’t breaking out his four-leaf clover for the Patriots this week.
TNF
Broncos @ Chargers
The Broncos ride into this matchup as 3.5-point underdogs against the Chargers, but the numbers suggest they may have the upper hand. Over the past month, Denver has been lighting up scoreboards, averaging 34.75 points per game while allowing just 17.5, a +17.25 point differential that screams dominance. Contrast that with the Chargers, whose offense has been sputtering at just 18.5 points per game over the same span, a defense allowing 25.5 points.
Denver's recent success comes down to efficiency on both sides of the ball. They're averaging 5.1 yards per play while holding opponents to a 4.8, not to mention a defensive success rate of 58.7% in the red zone. The Chargers, meanwhile, continue to struggle in containing opponents, giving up 385.75 yards per game, including a league-worst 40% success rate on 3rd down. Unless the Chargers can rediscover their offensive rhythm, this could get lopsided fast.
The Chargers have been without key offensive linemen recently, which doesn't bode well against a Denver pass rush that's tallied 14 sacks over the last four games. With Denver’s ability to capitalize on short fields and the Chargers' penchant for stalling drives, leaning Broncos +3.5 feels like the safe call here.
SNF
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
The Buccaneers head to Dallas with momentum and a chance to showcase their dominance. Over the past month, Tampa Bay has averaged 31 points per game on 455.5 yards of offense while holding opponents to a stingy 15 points and just 276 yards. Dallas, on the other hand, has allowed 331.75 yards and 21.75 points per game, making their defense look vulnerable against Tampa's balanced attack.
Red zone efficiency could be the key here. The Buccaneers have been finishing drives at a 65.5% clip, while the Cowboys lag behind at just 47.5%. If Tampa keeps cashing in on their opportunities, it’s going to be a long night for Dallas. Offensively, Dallas is managing 27.75 points per game but has struggled to stretch the field with only 5 yards per play compared to Tampa’s more dynamic 6.1.
For Dallas to have a shot, they’ll need to find answers in the trenches, where their defense has allowed 5.8 yards per play. Tampa Bay’s ability to control both sides of the ball might be too much for the Cowboys to overcome, especially with the Bucs firing on all cylinders. This one feels like Tampa’s game to lose. Definitely on Tampa here.
MNF
Saints @ Packers
The Saints head to Green Bay as two-touchdown underdogs, and the numbers paint a steep hill to climb. New Orleans is averaging a respectable 20.5 points per game over the past month, but their 5.4 yards per play pales in comparison to Green Bay’s explosive 6.3. Add in the Saints' struggles on defense, allowing 354 yards per game, and it’s clear why the Packers are heavy favorites.
Green Bay has been dominant offensively, putting up 32.25 points per game and averaging nearly 345 yards over their last four outings. The Packers' red zone efficiency of 56.9% is a slight edge over New Orleans’ 60.0%, but the real separator is the Saints' inability to keep drives alive on third down and limit big plays defensively. Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense has held opponents to a solid 18.5 points per game on just 303.75 yards.
Unless the Saints can generate turnovers or force the Packers into long-yardage situations, it’s hard to see how they keep pace. Green Bay’s balance on both sides of the ball should keep them firmly in control, and unless a miracle falls out of the New Orleans sky, this one looks like all Packers. I don't like big spreads but the Saints have managed to keep their last three losses to a one possession game. The Packers on the other hand have managed to win three out of their last four games by double digits. Hard to see the Saints keeping this one close under the lights at Lambeau. No play for me.
GOTW
Steelers @ Ravens
The Ravens and Steelers square off in Baltimore, with the Ravens favored by six and for good reason. Over the past month, Baltimore’s offense has been humming, averaging 6.9 yards per play while putting up 383.75 yards per game. The Steelers, meanwhile, are a mixed bag—averaging 25.75 points per game but giving up just as many on defense. The key difference? Pittsburgh’s middling 5.1 yards per play offense faces a Ravens defense allowing just 269 yards per game, one of the best marks in the league.
Baltimore’s red zone efficiency of 74.1% is another standout stat, especially when compared to Pittsburgh’s 45.8%. If the Ravens get inside the 20, they’re likely cashing in, and Pittsburgh’s defense has shown little ability to prevent that. Adding to the challenge, the Steelers' offensive consistency has been suspect, especially on third downs and in critical situations, leaving their defense on the field far too long.
Unless the Steelers can create some chaos through turnovers or dominate the line of scrimmage, this game has Baltimore written all over it. The Ravens’ balanced attack and a defense that’s more than capable of limiting Pittsburgh’s weapons should make this one a comfortable cover for the home team. With one notable exception its an AFC North battle and we know how those typically go. The Steelers took a close one a month ago, however the Ravens defense has played remarkedly better since then. I am not sure the Steelers offense has. I wouldn't lay the 6 here personally. But I see why the spread is where it is.
