Mayo Made The Right Call, The Only Call - Brissett over Maye

[Pape]

I posted the links at least twice.
Your spoiler is stupid, I said all along they planned on starting Brissett. The question was whether that the right and only decision, and it was not.

The all-22 breakdown went fine in game 2 and game 3, as Lazar and Kyles agreed, on film game 3 was not nearly as bad as people thought, I posted on game 3 already, game 2 was better but different lineup, Robinson was bad in game 3, the guy I said in game 1 was not ready to start, even after the hype after week 2.

I don't get taking such a strong opinion on something you refuse to research, seems like the definition of clown.

Of course my spoiler is stupid. That was the point. I had to stoop... you cite facts and studies, but don't think.

And who says I didn't "research" it? Eh, no mtter. Regardless of what I have read, parsed in the stat sheets of other teams / quarterbacks, there is a simple point that you continually over look. This is about the 2024 Patriots. Our team. Our roster. Our staff. Not another team. The discussion regarding starting/sitting a player is alligned to what we have, not anyone else.

At the end of the day, the coaching staff sees more, knows more than everyone here, everyone in the media. Where did the team stand at the end of last year? they won 4 games. Telling to the state of the roster. It begs the question - What were the major holes? What can done to address those holes? In the case of the Patriots the biggest needs going into this season were what? Quarter Back and Offensive Line. What did they do to address these holes? Well they drafted Maye, that's about it. The wait and see approach to the line has proved to be the wrong approach, nigh on disasterous.

The team signed Brissett early on. They knew that he was going to be the interim starter. Right from the get go. Why? Because they knew, or should have known, they would not be able to address all the holes that needed filling. They could not attract talent in free agency. No matter how much they offered. They knew going into the draft that they would either have to focus on weapons or linemen. They chose weapons, and even they are suspect until proven otherwise. The spin that come out of the draft about the guys on the line they did pick was was dizzying. You knew right away who was carrying the water for the team. And at the end of the day, there is a reason why Wolf said "I Think" when asked if the line was going to be competitive. That is not a declarative statement, and should tell you all you need to know.

Early on it was apparent that Maye was not going to be the starter. A camp progressed, and he did not get the majority of snaps with the 1's, end of story. Not only was starting Brissett the right decision, it is the only decision the team could make.

Why did they do this? Why did they keep Brissett with the 1's, despite Maye being the better choice? Because they know that they still have issues to work thru. First and foremost is the relative inexperience of the coaching staff. They get to learn on the job, while minimizing the risk to 10. The risk is minimized, but not eliminated, because there is a very good chance that Brissett will get hurt because of what? Come on, it's okay, you can say it... The line is not good. and lastly, its Maye himself. They want more time to work with him in non-pressure situations.

I chuckle when you talk about the line, and try to put a shine to it. Lol, game 3 wasn't as bad as it looked? Of course it was. And its even worse when you consider we weren't even playing the redskins starters.... 10 called penalties, 4 declined says otherwise. Only Robinson was bad? Yes, I agree he was. What about Okorafor? Leverette? That was out and out bad line play across the board, no matter how you parse it. That you are willing to overlook it, well, that says it all.

 

[Rob0729]

When the Patriots drafted Maye, the plan was to make him sit as much as his entire rookie year. There was a reason for that. Not to protect his health, but because the Pats drafted a QB with potential HOF raw talent but lacked a lot of the fundamentals to be a good QB in the NFL. The kid has a lot to learn.

I mean he footwork issues, throwing motion issues, apparent inability to read defenses at an NFL level, etc. Hell, he has never actually played a meaningful snap under center since high school. He was always in the shotgun in college. And he had a mediocre team around him that hindered his development.

He appears to be a fast learner. But he had a lot to learn. So he still probably has a lot to learn. No reason to switch strategies and rush him on the field just because Brissett has sucked and Maye has outplayed him. It is about making Maye a franchise and possibly even an elite QB rather than get wins this year.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

It's not the worst offensive line ever, if all 5 starters can actually play, they'll be fine, outside of left tackle question mark which can be mitigated with play calling. Maye was sacked once, Brissett once. A 4.1% sack rate.

If they have to play backups it gets sketchy but there is nothing in the tape suggesting the top 5 cannot be an adequate line.

Sack % is as much on the QB. That # historically follows the QB behind any line within a few percent. You'd like to be under 6% ideally but over 7.8% has been the number most closely associated with QB busts.

I agree that the OL has a chance to be better if the starters can all play. I don't think sack percentage tells the story about the preseason. As you say that stat is more a measure of the QB than the OL. Pressure rate is a better measure of the OL. I looked quickly but did not find this stat for the preseason games. My belief is that pressure rate will not be good.

 

[Ring 6]

When the Patriots drafted Maye, the plan was to make him sit as much as his entire rookie year. There was a reason for that. Not to protect his health, but because the Pats drafted a QB with potential HOF raw talent but lacked a lot of the fundamentals to be a good QB in the NFL. The kid has a lot to learn.

I mean he footwork issues, throwing motion issues, apparent inability to read defenses at an NFL level, etc. Hell, he has never actually played a meaningful snap under center since high school. He was always in the shotgun in college. And he had a mediocre team around him that hindered his development.

He appears to be a fast learner. But he had a lot to learn. So he still probably has a lot to learn. No reason to switch strategies and rush him on the field just because Brissett has sucked and Maye has outplayed him. It is about making Maye a franchise and possibly even an elite QB rather than get wins this year.

Who told you what the plan was?

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

The only qb on the list you name that had a "star" in front of him is Rodgers. The other guys? fine, but ultimately replaceable. You think Alex Smith really held off Patrick Mahomes?

All the others? Out in year two (three in the case of staubach & rivers).

Alex Smith really did hold off Mahomes. He had a 91.2 rating in 2016 and a 104.7 rating during Mahome's rookie year. He threw 26 TDs and only 5 INTs, and for over 4,000 yards. You think they were going to pull a guy who was having a tremendous season for an unproven rookie?

 

[Ring 6]

His worries are immaterial to this debate. The QB isn't making this decision (nor should a rookie QB - ever).

You don't charge the cavalry to the front line at the beginning of a battle where you're vastly outnumbered (but can't retreat and have to fight). You make more strategic, long term decisions, usually in retrograde, to draw the enemy toward a position where you might have a better chance later (i.e. when you've gotten both scheme and repetitions in to shore up a fatal weakness - in this case the OL).

Yes, you are supposed the charge the ambush because you're probably dead already if you've blundered into one, but the Patriots are not in an ambush. They know what's coming and that they're going to be at a massive disadvantage all year. Taking your likely best man, putting him front and center and saying "come cripple us not only for this year, but the years to come too by taking him out" knowing you've got literally no way to adequately protect him this early in the campaign?

Just a strategy I can't wrap my head around.

The argument was he shouldn’t play because he’s worried about getting hurt and that will affect him.

This isn’t a war. It’s a football team that stinks and the best hope forward is that they drafted a star QB. If they didn’t there are at least 5 Jetlike years ahead.
The best way forward is to get that piece on the field gaining experience. They are playing for 2025, at best and may be playing for 2027 without realizing it because of the total lack if anything resembling a plan. (Wait around and suck and hope we hit on draft picks is not a plan)

He’s not going to get hit significantly more than most QBs. Frankly if you fear that you can game plan it, and that type of game plan is all fundamental drive for the QB. Quick drops and fast throws which emphasize footwork and timing. Play action passes, heavy run offense, few 3rd and longs (and if you fear the OL on those run a draw or a screen)
If fear of your qb getting hit was the reason to not play them why do QBs like Jackson,Hurts, now Daniels have so many designed runs. Each of those QBs will be hit far more times than Maye.

Do we really want to teach the franchise Qb that he shouldn’t even be on the field unless he can be untouched? That any time he gets hit, it’s his ol trying to get him killed?

There are no real football reasons to not play him only non-football reasons being used to make excuses for a terrible decision.

 

[Ring 6]

The only qb on the list you name that had a "star" in front of him is Rodgers. The other guys? fine, but ultimately replaceable. You think Alex Smith really held off Patrick Mahomes?

All the others? Out in year two (three in the case of staubach & rivers).

We don’t have guy who is “fine” ahead of Maye.

 

[Ring 6]

Once Bobby K seesm those blue seats without butt's in them... expect something to change... lol

Wait until fans show up with bags over their heads.

 

[Pape]

Alex Smith really did hold off Mahomes. He had a 91.2 rating in 2016 and a 104.7 rating during Mahome's rookie year. He threw 26 TDs and only 5 INTs, and for over 4,000 yards. You think they were going to pull a guy who was having a tremendous season for an unproven rookie?

I can't rightly argue or even disagree with any of those numbers. They are what they are. Smith was a competent QB no doubt.

But... (there's always a but, isn't there?)

The reason why you replace a guy like Alex Smith is you know he is going to only take you so far. He was one and done in three of the last four years, one and done in 5 out of his 6 seasons in KC. The only reason they won one game is because they were facing the Hoyer the Destroyer lead Texans. Reid knew that Smith could only take them so far. He knew it, and he drafted Mahomes. Yet played Smith anyway. Why?

The further the development of Mahomes.

Sitting him for a year certainly didn't hurt, did it? His first year playing he equaled Smith's win total in the playoffs (in KC), and took the cheefs to the Conference Championship.

 

[KCSVEN]

At the end of the day, the coaching staff sees more, knows more than everyone here, everyone in the media.

We will see about that.

 

[Pape]

We will see about that.

lmao. really? "we will see about that"

you sound like a cartoon villian there Snidley

 

[KCSVEN]

I agree that the OL has a chance to be better if the starters can all play. I don't think sack percentage tells the story about the preseason. As you say that stat is more a measure of the QB than the OL. Pressure rate is a better measure of the OL. I looked quickly but did not find this stat for the preseason games. My belief is that pressure rate will not be good.

I calculated it from PFF at around 35% pressure rate,
Mahomes last year was under pressure 35.5% of the time

Both numbers are a little high because KC Tackles were terrible last year but also a product of the OC, QB and the line.

Jacoby gets sacked at a high % throughout his career. Not the ideal guy behind an average or worse line.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I calculated it from PFF at around 35% pressure rate,
Mahomes last year was under pressure 35.5% of the time

Both numbers are a little high because KC Tackles were terrible last year but also a product of the OC, QB and the line.

Jacoby gets sacked at a high % throughout his career. Not the ideal guy behind an average or worse line.

Measuring an OL based on statistics is difficult. This article from ESPN rates the Pats as last in pass blocking win rate and KC first last year. No wonder the QB's looked so bad. Despite the optics so far this years line has to be better than last year.

2023 NFL pass rush, run stop, blocking win rate rankings

Our win rate metics stack the NFL's best run-blocking, run-stopping, pass-protecting and pass-rushing players and teams.

www.espn.com

 

[Lagaffe_07]

I can't rightly argue or even disagree with any of those numbers. They are what they are. Smith was a competent QB no doubt.

But... (there's always a but, isn't there?)

The reason why you replace a guy like Alex Smith is you know he is going to only take you so far. He was one and done in three of the last four years, one and done in 5 out of his 6 seasons in KC. The only reason they won one game is because they were facing the Hoyer the Destroyer lead Texans. Reid knew that Smith could only take them so far. He knew it, and he drafted Mahomes. Yet played Smith anyway. Why?

The further the development of Mahomes.

Sitting him for a year certainly didn't hurt, did it? His first year playing he equaled Smith's win total in the playoffs (in KC), and took the cheefs to the Conference Championship.

If the Chiefs had Brissett, Mahomes would have started week 1.

You are afraid that he MIGHT get injured, he MIGHT be sped up, he MIGHT regress. I am not. You can sit him a year and you’ll still have no guarantees that the things above won’t happen. If you think that sitting him a year will somehow transform him in this QB that can read any defense, that has perfect mechanics, I have a bridge to sell you.

I am confident that Maye is the real deal and I want him to play because I want the growing pain to happen as fast as possible. If you sit him a year you can cross 2025 because the growing pain will happen then so you are targeting for Maye to be up and running in 2026. what do you do if you draft Will Campbell and he tore his achilles in TC do you sit Maye again because he could get injured?

 

[Pape]

If the Chiefs had Brissett, Mahomes would have started week 1.

You are afraid that he MIGHT get injured, he MIGHT be sped up, he MIGHT regress. I am not. You can sit him a year and you’ll still have no guarantees that the things above won’t happen. If you think that sitting him a year will somehow transform him in this QB that can read any defense, that has perfect mechanics, I have a bridge to sell you.

I am confident that Maye is the real deal and I want him to play because I want the growing pain to happen as fast as possible. If you sit him a year you can cross 2025 because the growing pain will happen then so you are targeting for Maye to be up and running in 2026. what do you do if you draft Will Campbell and he tore his achilles in TC do you sit Maye again because he could get injured?

If the chiefs had Brissett? On the face of it, Yes, I agree, Mahomes would have started. That is not the question though. If the Chiefs brought a journeyman qb in to start that year, would he have started right away, from the get go? 50/50.

Not wanting him in the line of fire until the line gets sorted out is not being afraid. Prudence ? Fear.

Please don't get me wrong, and I have said this before - I did not want Brissett. I do want Maye under center. Just not right away. Not when there are too many variables in play. Give the staff a chance to get things sorted first. This is the first year of hopefully a long career in New England for Maye. There is no need to sprint the first mile of the marathon. There is no tangible benefit in doing so.

 

[lancerman]

If the chiefs had Brissett? On the face of it, Yes, I agree, Mahomes would have started. That is not the question though. If the Chiefs brought a journeyman qb in to start that year, would he have started right away, from the get go? 50/50.

Not wanting him in the line of fire until the line gets sorted out is not being afraid. Prudence ? Fear.

Please don't get me wrong, and I have said this before - I did not want Brossett. I do want Maye under center. Just not right away. Not when there are too many variables in play. Give the staff a chance to get things sorted first. This is the first year of hopefully a long career in New England for Maye. There is no need to sprint the first mile of the marathon. There is no tangible benefit in doing so.

It's not an apples to apples comparison. Mahomes isn't a rookie QB who needed to learn fundamentals. Let's be real, Mahomes in 2017 was probably better in camp than Alex Smith was, they still held him back to develop him.

There's downsides to putting a young guy who hasn't adjusted to the speed of NFL players who hasn't locked all his fundamentals down.

Also let's be real, not starting Mahomes behind a bad line is still preventing an outside chance of a playoff run and Super Bowl if things go right.

Not starting Maye is preventing the outside chance of maybe going .500 if things all go right.

 

[Pape]

It's not an apples to apples comparison. Mahomes isn't a rookie QB who needed to learn fundamentals. Let's be real, Mahomes in 2017 was probably better in camp than Alex Smith was, they still held him back to develop him.

There's downsides to putting a young guy who hasn't adjusted to the speed of NFL players who hasn't locked all his fundamentals down.

Also let's be real, not starting Mahomes behind a bad line is still preventing an outside chance of a playoff run and Super Bowl if things go right.

Not starting Maye is preventing the outside chance of maybe going .500 if things all go right.

Is what it is. Just doing what I can with what I was given to work with.

Two different teams, two different times.

 

[maust]

I guess I'm in the minority in that I don't think I know what's better for the development of Drake Maye than the guys Kraft is paying to make the decision on when to play him. I share the concern that like most of the current generation of college QB's, Maye took FAR too few snaps under center to feel like it's going to be a seamless transition. I thnk that alone is no small factor when it comes to the failure rate among young QB's, very few of them play in a pro style offense. That's just one of the ways running the scout team can benefit a rookie QB.

This team is undergoing a sea change level of transition. I hope the right choices have been made to get it through its growing pains and back to its winning ways and we are entering a new era of a culture that will create a generation of sustainable winning. The operative word there is 'hope.' I don't know that is where we are headed and I don't know that we're not. And neither does anyone else here. The difference is I know I don't know while a fair portion of PF seems secure in their not so professional opinions that 'cheap' Bob Kraft has dropped the ball, Mayo is a disaster and Wolf doesn't know ****.

I do know that's an entirely too reasonable perspective for that portion of the Pats fan base that considers an annual trip to the AFCCG as their birthright but I trust there's still more than a few survivors of the Sullivan/Kiam years out there who feel pretty much the same way. Safe to say the latter won't miss the former should they hang up their pink hats on the way out. Let's just hope they leave a light on for us. I'm too damn old to be afraid of the dark but tbh I don't see quite as well in it as I used to.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

The reason why you replace a guy like Alex Smith is you know he is going to only take you so far.

Elway had a career filled with playoff futility. In 7 out of 11 years reaching the playoffs, the Broncos were eliminated in the first or second game. He had 3 consecutive SB losses in a row in the 80s. Point is there are lots of reasons outside of the QB for playoff losses. Smith isn’t Elway, but there are a lot of game managers that have won SBs: Rypien, Dilfer, Brad Johnson, McMahon…

Sitting him for a year certainly didn't hurt, did it? His first year playing he equaled Smith's win total in the playoffs (in KC), and took the cheefs to the Conference Championship.

Not arguing that. They shouldn’t give Drake a whiff of grass. But the release of Zappe tells us that Drake is going to play. It’s a monumental mistake, beyond stupid given the state of the OL. The fact that it’s happening tells you that Kraft wants butts in the seats this year, even if Drake’s career is on the line.

 

[Pape]

Elway had a career filled with playoff futility. In 7 out of 11 years reaching the playoffs, the Broncos were eliminated in the first or second game. He had 3 consecutive SB losses in a row in the 80s. Point is there are lots of reasons outside of the QB for playoff losses. Smith isn’t Elway, but there are a lot of game managers that have won SBs: Rypien, Dilfer, Brad Johnson, McMahon…

elway was a different sort of beast though. most of the game managers win when there are other things in play, like Jump Ball Joe Flacco getting all the PI calls and Brokeback Peyton Manning getting carried to the title by the dominant denver defense. But I get your point, and its a good one.

Not arguing that. They shouldn’t give Drake a whiff of grass. But the release of Zappe tells us that Drake is going to play. It’s a monumental mistake, beyond stupid given the state of the OL. The fact that it’s happening tells you that Kraft wants butts in the seats this year, even if Drake’s career is on the line.

I think Drake will see the field this year, at some point. and agreed, Zappe should be here as depth.