Mariota more than likely to be released per source.

[RIpats88]

so, they were talking on the radio about it. but bedard said Mariota hasnt been traded because he has made it clear to teams he isn't tearing up his contract and wants $22million to start. Teams were hoping he would play ball and renegotiate to get a chance to start.

(his current deal calls for him to get paid $20million if he plays 12 games whether he wins or loses)

Kind of a Strange position for a guy who was a backup last season and wants to prove he isnt done. Its why his trade market has dried up. Now, maybe its a ploy so he can get released. Because hes NOT getting $20million as an unproven guy on the open market

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

so, they were talking on the radio about it. but bedard said Mariota hasnt been traded because he has made it clear to teams he isn't tearing up his contract and wants $22million to start. Teams were hoping he would play ball and renegotiate to get a chance to start.

(his current deal calls for him to get paid $20million if he plays 12 games whether he wins or loses)

Kind of a Strange position for a guy who was a backup last season and wants to prove he isnt done. Its why his trade market has dried up. Now, maybe its a ploy so he can get released. Because hes NOT getting $20million as an unproven guy on the open market

it could be a negotiation tactic. Probably knows he is about to get released so he wants to set his value at x amount (higher than he actually would expect ) and negotiate down from there. Agreed theres no way he’ll get 20 m though

 

[venecol]

The cons in this article is why I'm not sold on Scaryota, but what do I know. He's becoming the odds on favorite of ending up in NE. Uggh

"Cons: There’s a reason Mariota had to settle for a backup job in 2020.

Despite his lofty draft status, he’s really only been an above-average quarterback in one of his six pro seasons. That was in 2016, his second year, when he posted a 26:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranked ninth in yards per attempt, 10th in passer rating, 13th in QBR and eighth in expected points added per play.

Otherwise, Mariota has been middling at best and downright bad at his worst. He’s never ranked higher than 14th in passer rating, QBR or EPA/play in any other season and was 21st or worse in all three in 2018, his last full season as a starter. He’s also typically ranked in the bottom half in accuracy metrics (completion percentage and adjusted completion percentage), outside of his 2018 bump.

Mariota also has yet to play a full 16-game season, so injuries are a concern, as well.

In 2019, Mariota posted a miserable 35.5 QBR through six starts that would have ranked second-to-last in the NFL if he’d thrown enough passes to quality. He was benched for Tannehill, who proceeded to have a phenomenal statistical season while leading the Titans to the AFC Championship Game."

Patriots Potential QBs: Why Marcus Mariota Is Odds-On Favorite For Pats

With more accomplished options likely out of reach, Marcus Mariota might be the New England Patriots' most realistic QB target

l.patsfans.com

 

[RIpats88]

The cons in this article is why I'm not sold on Scaryota, but what do I know. He's becoming the odds on favorite of ending up in NE. Uggh

"Cons: There’s a reason Mariota had to settle for a backup job in 2020.

Despite his lofty draft status, he’s really only been an above-average quarterback in one of his six pro seasons. That was in 2016, his second year, when he posted a 26:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranked ninth in yards per attempt, 10th in passer rating, 13th in QBR and eighth in expected points added per play.

Otherwise, Mariota has been middling at best and downright bad at his worst. He’s never ranked higher than 14th in passer rating, QBR or EPA/play in any other season and was 21st or worse in all three in 2018, his last full season as a starter. He’s also typically ranked in the bottom half in accuracy metrics (completion percentage and adjusted completion percentage), outside of his 2018 bump.

Mariota also has yet to play a full 16-game season, so injuries are a concern, as well.

In 2019, Mariota posted a miserable 35.5 QBR through six starts that would have ranked second-to-last in the NFL if he’d thrown enough passes to quality. He was benched for Tannehill, who proceeded to have a phenomenal statistical season while leading the Titans to the AFC Championship Game."

Patriots Potential QBs: Why Marcus Mariota Is Odds-On Favorite For Pats

With more accomplished options likely out of reach, Marcus Mariota might be the New England Patriots' most realistic QB target

l.patsfans.com

Yeah that's the biggest question mark. That year he did have Vrabel as his coach. And once he was replaced Tannehill lead them to the AFCCG and had a great statistical season.

Probably would've missed the playoffs with Mariota

 

[Deus Irae]

so, they were talking on the radio about it. but bedard said Mariota hasnt been traded because he has made it clear to teams he isn't tearing up his contract and wants $22million to start. Teams were hoping he would play ball and renegotiate to get a chance to start.

(his current deal calls for him to get paid $20million if he plays 12 games whether he wins or loses)

Kind of a Strange position for a guy who was a backup last season and wants to prove he isnt done. Its why his trade market has dried up. Now, maybe its a ploy so he can get released. Because hes NOT getting $20million as an unproven guy on the open market

I don't consider it strange that a guy would want to be paid low end starting QB money for being a starting QB.

 

[RIpats88]

I don't consider it strange that a guy would want to be paid low end starting QB money for being a starting QB.

He hasn't proven that he's a starter in the NFL anymore. He lost his job to Tannehill and couldn't beat out derek carr.

Generally guys who have lost their job and have one foot out the door from being a career backup and need to PROVE they are a starter don't try and scrounge for every last penny. There's a reason he has no trade market at his current contract. And teams like Washington have said "no thanks" one they heard his demands.

 

[Deus Irae]

He hasn't proven that he's a starter in the NFL anymore. Generally guys who have lost their job and have one foot out the door from being a career backup don't try and scrounge for every last penny. There's a reason he has no trade market at his current contract.

I doubt Trubisky, fitz, winston or any of those guys are expecting $20million

What you or I may, or may not, think he's "proven" is irrelevant. If a team thinks he's good enough to be the starter, nobody should be surprised that he wants to be paid starter money for being a....... starter.

His contract isn't based upon starter's money for a base salary type of deal. It's based upon starter's money via incentives/benchmarks.

 

[RIpats88]

What you or I may, or may not, think he's "proven" is irrelevant. If a team thinks he's good enough to be the starter, nobody should be surprised that he wants to be paid starter money for being a....... starter.

His contract isn't based upon starter's money for a base salary type of deal. It's based upon starter's money via incentives/benchmarks.

Some team might value him that. But so far no team has so it's a moot point. There's a reason his trade interest has dried up

I think the problem with his deal isn't the $20million if it was based on wins. It's that it's $20million as long as he steps on the field whether he is garbage or not

 

[Deus Irae]

Some team might value him that. But so far no team has so it's a moot point.

The Raiders did, last year. Some team might this year, but might not want to offer the Raiders a draft pick for the privilege.

There's a reason his trade interest has dried up

I think the problem with his deal isn't the $20million if it was based on wins. It's that it's $20million as long as he steps on the field whether he is garbage or not

This isn't rocket science.

If he's garbage, you take him off the field. Then he doesn't get paid.


But, if a player is your starter, there's no reason you shouldn't be paying him as a starter.

 

[goheels22002]

To be more specific - he hits the cap for ~ $10m this near no matter what, no more no less. If he plays over 60% of the snaps, starts 12 games, and wins 11 games or less, he gets ~$8/9m more which hits the cap in 2022 because it is NLTBE. 12+ wins gets him to around a $10m hit next year.

It's not the best but the fact that the incentives hit the cap a year later means you can absorb that in a restructure if you decide to keep him. If he is a 1 year option and only does OK then the incentives screw you out of a few million. But at least you'd have a halfway decent QB on your roster ahead of free agency. Worth a 6th IMO - with a drafted QB behind him.

The bonuses are capped at $1.5 million for the wins plus playing time. His max for the 17 game schedule is is $12,125,000 if he plays over 60% of snaps. If he takes them to playoffs and wins the Super Bowl who cares what they pay him? If the Patriots make the playoffs and I get to host a party again without a mask on, I'll chip in to pay the man.

Mariota's deal is fine for 2021 and is at least trying to win. At this point, I don't care what Belichick does as long as he makes a serious effort to win the division and get to the playoffs. He got out of cap hell in one year. Some teams have no idea how to do that. He re-vamped the coaching the staff for 2021 with a selection of first-rate football men. I'm thrilled Matt Patricia is back to mentor Mayo and the Belichick offspring and Bo Hardegree is coming in to help Josh with the QB room

Now it's time for player acquisition through trades, the draft and a couple of free agents. By sitting still and not doing the drunken sailor Rams/Colts thing, (Carson Wentz at $98 million over 4 years?!?) Belichick is sitting there watching teams cut good vets to get under the lower cap by the draft and eat dead money. There are bargains galore on the FA market and he's getting 8 guys back from the opt out plus seven draft picks. We're about have a good Spring of roster upgrades unlike anything since 2007 when Moss and Welker came in.

Mariota would be a good start, but I prefer Mitch Trubisky as a FA, draft TE Kyle Pitts from Florida with the #1 at 15, re-sign Thuney and Andrews, tweak Brady and sign FA WR Chris Godwin, re-sign Kyle Van Noy, Damiere Byrd, and Nick Folk, and draft a nose tackle with the #2. The usual camp fodder will yield three or four more guys for the roster we never heard of and let's go.

 

[venecol]

The notion that a team w/o an elite QB and lacks talent can in one year gather a bunch of FAs and rookies w/ an avg QB and go take the division is idealistic.

This didn't work in 2008 when, w/ more talent and w/o the elite QB, they failed to make the playoffs.

Not expecting miracles and very curious to see what Bill does. It starts with the QB decision.

 

[goheels22002]

If I'm Mariota the last place I'd want to go is NE:

1. Total lack of offensive weapons;
2. Complicated system to learn, making chances of success less likely;
3. Very difficult to follow after the GOAT legacy with a rough fan base;
4. Not being perceived as "the guy," just a place holder.
5. GM known for low balling contracts.

I'd want to go to a franchise where I stood a chance of becoming the franchise "starter." That's not happening here. Maybe a Carolina or Denver.

Obviously if it's June and nobody's called (but then isn't there a reason nobody called?).

You listen to too much sports radio. There will be offensive weapons in 2021. Belichick will use the draft and free agency to add WRs (remember Moss, Welker, Amendola, etc?) and the backfield got better instantly with the return of Danny Vitale and Brandon Bolden from the opt out.

The "system" is hard to learn? So what? Nobody expects the NFL to be easy. These are professional football players paid millions of dollars. Learn the playbook!

The next QB is following Cam Newton. When did he become the GOAT?

The next QB will be not be expected to be a place holder. If a rookie wins the job, he might be more of a game manager, but the expectations will be very high, especially in the AFC which is dominated by young superstar QBs.

Finally, the GM does not lowball contracts. The Patriots spend to the cap. The formula is that they live within a budget by position and pay to have quality depth. That means you don't have a Kirk Cousins or Carson Wentz. People want to think it's a great idea to make guys like Joe Flacco or Eli Manning the highest paid player in the league. What did that yield? Not one more playoff win for either team. Sure. Belichick is not going to pay Dak Prescott $40 million a year at the expense of every other position group on the field. Jerry Jones will, and he'll spend January playing golf.

Enjoy the next few months and the run up to the start of the 2021 season. There are few people more competitive than Bill Belichick.

 

[Deus Irae]

The notion that a team w/o an elite QB and lacks talent can in one year gather a bunch of FAs and rookies w/ an avg QB and go take the division is idealistic.

This didn't work in 2008 when, w/ more talent and w/o the elite QB, they failed to make the playoffs.

Not expecting miracles and very curious to see what Bill does. It starts with the QB decision.

The huge money, combined with the anticipated FA flood should be enough to put the Patriots in position to completely overhaul their team and become a legitimate playoff team again. Anything less should be considered a monumental failure.

 

[goheels22002]

OK then let me put it this way: During Mariota's last season in 2019, Titans started out 2-4.

The last time Mariota led the team was in game #6, where he had 0 TD / 2 INT, 39% completion, 9.5 Rating. Titans series went: PUNT, PUNT, PUNT, PUNT, PUNT, PUNT, INT to end the half. Mariota started the 2nd half going PUNT, INT that led to a Denver TD. Score was 13-0 by end of 3rd QTR when he got replaced by Tannehill.

Tannehill didn't do much better 0 TD / 1 INT, 81% completion, 78.1 Rating. After that game, the Titans with Tannehill as the starting QB proceeded to go 9-4 (incl. postseason) all the way to AFCCG.

So, the Titans "team" were a much better "team" with Tannehill than with Mariota.

Also, he's never played 16 games. I don't know where this love fest for Mariota is coming from, it's weird.

Date	League	Injury	Details
Dec 22, 2018	NFL	Cervical Neck Stinger	Mariota missed the season finale.
Nov 18, 2018	NFL	Cervical Neck Stinger	Mariota missed 1 half of play but returned the following week vs. Houston.
Sep 9, 2018	NFL	Arm Elbow Sprain	Mariota missed 1 game with a pinched nerve.
Oct 1, 2017	NFL	Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1	Mariota missed only 1 game.
Dec 24, 2016	NFL	Leg Fibula Fracture	In Week 16, Mariota suffered a broken fibula against the Jags.
Dec 20, 2015	NFL	Knee MCL Sprain Grade 2	Mariota sprained his right MCL and missed the final two games.
Oct 18, 2015	NFL	Knee MCL Sprain Grade 2	Mariota was rolled up on in Week 6 against the Dolphins and sprained his MCL. He missed the next two games.
Jan 12, 2015	Non-NFL	Shoulder A/C Joint Sprain	Mariota sprained his right shoulder in the National Championship game.

You are correct about Mariota and his injury history. It's the same with Jimmy Garropolo and Teddy Bridgewater. All three guys are fragile, for whatever reason. But I'd be comfortable bringing any of them in and drafting a QB with the 4th rounder. Mitch Trubisky is the best choice of among the four younger free agents with a history of some success as a starter given his age and relative lack of wear and tear.

 

[goheels22002]

If you're sold on a QB, no price is too high. If you're not sold on a QB, you don't draft him anywhere in the first round.

It really depends on where you are drafting - the #1 pick in the 2020 draft got a $36 million contract vs the #32 who received $10million. A good QB late in the 1st at a cap friendly price with a four-year deal can be a very wise move. Lamar Jackson was the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft for the Ravens and gave them a lot of flexibility as he grew into a franchise QB.

Maybe Belichick should trade down...

 

[goheels22002]

Part of me expects to watch Bill ONLY sign cut players so he can still get a comp pick for departing players like Thuney while being a “buyer” instead of a “seller” for once.

I don't think so. He didn't screw around when he signed Gilmore, Revis, Rosie Colvin, Amendola, and Rodney Harrison. He won't screw around this year. I expect a splash early in free agency this year.

 

[Deus Irae]

It really depends on where you are drafting

Where you're drafting makes no difference at all. If you're sold on a QB, you get him. Of course, to get him, he has to be attainable. Nobody but Jacksonville is getting Lawrence.

And, for the record, we've done analysis on this before. The almost 100% cutoff for QBs in recent NFL history is QB#7 (Dak Prescott's trying to become an exception, as 2016's QB#8). There's a reason why most NFL starters are first round picks, a few more are 2nd round picks, and then the numbers drop way off. That reason is partly because teams give first round picks more, and arguably too many, opportunities to prove themselves. But it's largely because, with the way teams are drafting so many QBs high nowadays, even the lesser "top" prospects are gone early.



DraftHistory.com

 

[RIpats88]

Thing is, the draft is an inexact science. Dak prescott was a 4th rounder, Jimmy G a 2nd, lamar jackson was #32 russell wilson was a 3rd rounder. If you redid those drafts today almost all would go in the top 10

So, while we hear over and over you can't find a QB past the top 10 it's not necessarily true. I keep hearing radio guys parrot "where the Patriots are picking you can't get an impact guy"

 

[venecol]

The huge money, combined with the anticipated FA flood should be enough to put the Patriots in position to completely overhaul their team and become a legitimate playoff team again. Anything less should be considered a monumental failure.

What about QB?

 

[luuked]

Yeah that's the biggest question mark. That year he did have Vrabel as his coach. And once he was replaced Tannehill lead them to the AFCCG and had a great statistical season.

Probably would've missed the playoffs with Mariota

Tannehill was a much better fit for what the Titans were doing and you could see those flashes during joint practices when some our beat guys were trashing Mariota's reps in the offense the Titans were building towards.

He never really had a fair shot that year because their best version of themselves something that made him a non system fit.