Life without Revis and McCourty

[Brady_to_Moss]

I will believe it when I see it. For now, I eye this negotiation with a great deal of skepticism.

We can tell...

 

[Brady2Moss]

I'm a huge McCourty fan, so I'm really hoping he re-signs. And I was probably one of the few who was against Revis coming to New England because I thought he'd be a selfish diva. Obviously totally wrong about that and he was a great addition and I don't think we win the Super Bowl without him.

I took a look at the past few years to see the potential impact on our pass defense. Obviously it's a flawed exercise because players have changed, roles have changed, guys have progressed/regressed, but FWIW:

2012: 271.4 YPG (29th), 27 TDs, 20 INTs, 86.9 Opposition QB Rating
2013: 239.0 YPG (18th), 25 TDs, 17 INTs, 81.0 Opposition QB Rating
2014: 239.8 YPG (17th), 24 TDs, 16 INTs, 84.0 Opposition QB Rating

2012 was rough, but it got better after we traded for Talib and moved McCourty to safety. While it's tough to tease out who had the bigger impact, the 2012 split is worth mentioning:

2012 (9 games before Talib trade/McCourty move)
285.3 YPG, 18 TDs, 11 INTs

2012 (6 games after Talib trade/McCourty move)
260.8 YPG, 9 TDs, 8 INTs

Talib didn't play the last week so excluding it for now. In case you're interested, the secondary did great against a terrible Dolphins passing attack so you can take that as proof of McCourty's value, or say it's too small a sample size to bother. You can also dismiss the second half improvement due to coaching, as our teams tend to improve as the season goes on. Nothing is absolute here.

But we can see a significant improvement in 2013 from a full season of those two upgrades.

The Revis signing in 2014 improved us, but it wasn't a massive leap over the team with Talib, and part of that might also be due to Talib missing 3 games in 2013. But having an elite corner paired with the position switch for McCourty was a big improvement over 2012. So losing both could be pretty significant.

We were fortunate to have an elite corner in Revis fall into our laps to replace the elite corner we lost in Talib. I don't think we can count on that happening again next week because the Bucs don't have anyone left to give away.

My guess is their first goal is Revis, and if the price gets too high, McCourty is the fallback. Ryan should get minutes at whoever we can't replace, and Butler will also get a chance to take over a top CB role.

BTW, Talib's 4 games that he missed were mostly against crappy QBs so I'm not putting much stock in this. But FWIW, those 4 games with McCourty and no Talib/Revis looked like this:

2012/2013, 4 games: 3-1 based on 2 wins over the Dolphins, 1 win over the Steelers, and a loss to the Geno Smith Jets?!?

232.8 YPG, 7 TDs, 6 INTs

Most of the damage done by the only competent QB on that list. Big Ben threw for 400 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs in a close game until the 4th quarter, when the Patriots dominated 28-7 to turn a 27-24 game into a laugher.

So we could potentially look decent with McCourty alone, obviously not as good as with Talib/Revis/other elite corner involved, but not awful either.

One key factor is our schedule was MUCH tougher QB wise in 2014 and 2013. In my opinion it was a quantum leap.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

One key factor is our schedule was MUCH tougher QB wise in 2014 and 2013. In my opinion it was a quantum leap.

I took a look and I'd agree 2014 was tougher, but I think a quantum leap is a bit much.

First, the division stayed mostly mediocre. Tannehill took a positive step forward, Geno regressed, Orton is probably an upgrade over Manuel, but only the Tannehill change made 2014 significantly better in terms of QB. We also played the Manning Broncos and the Dalton Bengals both years, leaving 8 different teams.

2013
Tampa
@Atlanta
Saints
Steelers
Panthers
@Texans
Browns
@Ravens

The Falcons weren't good, but Matt Ryan threw for 421 yards. Big Ben also had a huge game without Talib in the lineup, and Drew Brees rounds out the top 3. Cam Newton is a tier below, and Flacco gets credit for past performance, despite this being a terrible year for him.

2014
@Minnesota
Oakland
@Kansas City
Chicago
Indianapolis
Detroit
@Green Bay
@San Diego

MVP Aaron Rodgers was the toughest opponent in any year, and Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers round out the top 3. I'd give a slight edge in top tier competition here to 2014. Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, and Matthew Stafford give more depth to the next tier, but I wouldn't take any of those guys over 2013 Newton in quality. Stafford and Cutler both had down years, and Smith struggled with injuries.

So overall, I'd say they were pretty similar sets. Maybe Tannehill and the two Dolphins games are tougher, but the Pats also went 3 games without Talib in 2013. I could see giving the edge to 2014, but quantum leap sounds like too much.

 

[zipster9]

We will know in 2 days (or less).

I would not be surprised if Patriots eek out signing both players, and cutting some players to compensate for the $$ spent on these 2 DBs....


Report: 'Pretty good bet' Pats bring back McCourty, Revis

by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com


Sun, 08 Mar 2015 9:33 PM ET

There is a "pretty good bet" that the Patriots will be able to keep both cornerback Darrelle Revis and safety Devin McCourty, according to a report from CSN New England.

This report comes after two days of negotiations from teams and representatives of free agents across the NFL. McCourty totaled 68 tackles and two interceptions a season ago. Revis made 47 tackles and recorded two interceptions.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok, what's the plan? It's clear they are both going to hit the FA and will likely be paid way more than Pats can afford or are willing to pay...

 

[Jlaff]

Another thread for the archives

 

[meatface]

Ok, what's the plan? It's clear they are both going to hit the FA and will likely be paid way more than Pats can afford or are willing to pay.

Who can we get in FA to shore up the secondary? Maxwell from Seahawks?

........idk what's funnier the pessimism or that Maxwell got a lot more money