Lazar: Belichick’s in-game decision-making is holding the Pats back

[Steve102]

Probably
-----------------------------------------------
If Robert chooses to manage his organization using the same axioms Bill adheres to....

"It is what it is"
"Better a year too soon than a year too late"
"Next man up"
"Not going to continue to do what isn't working"
etc

.....the loyalty card will get pulled from the deck sooner rather than later

One of the dynamics I've thought of is: How does Kraft feel about the Bill/Brady split? Does he harbor any ill will toward Bill, like a fan, or is it strictly business? If there's ill will, does that enter into any decisions Kraft may have to make? To your point, you'd have think he learned from Bill just like he learned from the relationship with Parcells. I agree with you that the loyalty card gets yanked sooner than later if he's learned from the BB way. I would think that it'll be even shorter leash if there's emotion involved due to the split. Time will tell.

 

[brdmaverick]

In terms of punting in OT on 4th and 3, Lazar cites a 44% chance of victory if they went for it and 38% if they punted. Now, I think with a 6% difference, you have some wiggle room about the specific factors with “flow of the game” etc. However, consider the Cowboys drives during the game:

1st Drive - TO on downs
2nd Drive - Touchdown
3rd Drive - INT (in field goal range)
4th Drive - Field Goal
5th Drive - Fumble (in field goal range)
6th Drive - Punt
7th Drive - Touchdown
8th Drive - Field Goal
9th Drive - Missed Field Goal
10th Drive - Field Goal

In all: 8 of 10 possessions, the Cowboys drove into at least field goal range.

Other factors: Due to the extreme difference in number of plays for each team, the Patriots defense was gassed. McCourty commented after the game about how they were struggling with guys coming out and couldn’t hold up. They had allowed the Cowboys to move the ball 91, 61, 40, and 40 yards on the previous four possessions.

That's a mic drop on this argument if there ever was one.

Odd how the coach with the famous 'Fourth and Two' situation lost his guts when I think most of us realized the Pats would lose if they gave up the ball.

 

[Pats2000]

As a card carrying member of Team BB, even I can recognize the BB Way has gone off the rails.

And because I most definitely believe Robert and Son will be very proactive beyond financing free agents, I'm most curious how Kraft will maneuver in an effort to right the course of his floundering team.

How does an owner take away power from a coach/GM he ceded absolute control too....without capsizing the whole operation?
Will Robert be his own point man or will Jonathon be tasked in the bad cop role?

To be a fly on the wall in those meetings

Has it though? Or has BB been dealing with a lot of change, turnover, rookie QB, new players, and shortened pre-season? I think it's a little ridiculous to start throwing stones 1.25 years into the departure of Brady. Most team languish for decades after their star QB leaves. It looks like we found our guy, the team has a losing record, but has been in every game they played except for the Saints game and even then they didn't get blown out, they lost by 2 TD's.

Mac had some opportunities to come back and didn't make it happen. I think once he grows a bit, those games where he has the ball at the end become wins.

 

[amfootball]

Has it though? Or has BB been dealing with a lot of change, turnover, rookie QB, new players, and shortened pre-season? I think it's a little ridiculous to start throwing stones 1.25 years into the departure of Brady. Most team languish for decades after their star QB leaves. It looks like we found our guy, the team has a losing record, but has been in every game they played except for the Saints game and even then they didn't get blown out, they lost by 2 TD's.

Mac had some opportunities to come back and didn't make it happen. I think once he grows a bit, those games where he has the ball at the end become wins.

It's not Mac. It's everything else.

 

[venecol]

This is a question I really would like people who even suggest it to be able to answer. Because, just like at QB, you can cycle through a lot of guys over a lot of years before finding the right one. People don't quite know how frustrating a lot of years might be here if that happens.

I decided to look at the current NFL coaches and see what's been happening coach-wise with the league lately. It's definitely going younger. The only coaches that were hired in their 60s in the last 4 years were Arians and Fangio (Bisaccia is interim and Culley is a transition). In contrast, there were 15 coaches under 50 hired since 2018. Ten of the top teams have coaches under 60 (7 under 50).

I don't think there will be a problem finding a good young coach to replace Bill. Times have changed. The old dynasty is over. Obviously no one will ever have the success Bill had just like no one will ever have the success Tom had. The secret recipe of having both GOATS working together for 20 years will never be replicated.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's a mic drop on this argument if there ever was one.

Odd how the coach with the famous 'Fourth and Two' situation lost his guts when I think most of us realized the Pats would lose if they gave up the ball.

It was the first drive of overtime. The BB philosophy is to make a team work the length of the field. So you punt, try to force a return punt, and then drive for the winning FG.

Do y'all figure that the Patriots were expecting Bailey to just punt the ball to the 20? Do y'all figure that BB was planning on a 35 yard completion being given up?

 

[Ian]

I decided to look at the current NFL coaches and see what's been happening coach-wise with the league lately. It's definitely going younger. The only coaches that were hired in their 60s in the last 4 years were Arians and Fangio (Bisaccia is interim and Culley is a transition). In contrast, there were 15 coaches under 50 hired since 2018. Ten of the top teams have coaches under 60 (7 under 50).

I don't think there will be a problem finding a good young coach to replace Bill. Times have changed. The old dynasty is over. Obviously no one will ever have the success Bill had just like no one will ever have the success Tom had. The secret recipe of having both GOATS working together for 20 years will never be replicated.

View attachment 36793

Again, @LFGMac10 said it best - we're 1.25 years post Brady. I'd give him at least a couple of seasons - especially now with Jones - before we kick him to the curb. This team is already showing signs of turning things around and I think it's safe to say that it's happening faster than - at least after last season - most of us thought.

 

[Ian]

It was the first drive of overtime. The BB philosophy is to make a team work the length of the field. So you punt, try to force a return punt, and then drive for the winning FG.

Do y'all figure that the Patriots were expecting Bailey to just punt the ball to the 20? Do y'all figure that BB was planning on a 35 yard completion being given up?

Exactly. That was a field position move. He was thinking, punt it, pin them deep, and potentially set up better field position for the offense the next time to get the field goal.

 

[amfootball]

It was the first drive of overtime. The BB philosophy is to make a team work the length of the field. So you punt, try to force a return punt, and then drive for the winning FG.

Do y'all figure that the Patriots were expecting Bailey to just punt the ball to the 20? Do y'all figure that BB was planning on a 35 yard completion being given up?

My gut feeling was if Dallas got the ball in OT we were going to lose. I didn't hate the punt on 4th and 3 as some have but in hindsight we really should have gone for it.

I hated the kneeling at halftime with 1:30 to go much, much more.

 

[Ian]

My gut feeling was if Dallas got the ball in OT we were going to lose. I didn't hate the punt on 4th and 3 as some have but in hindsight we really should have gone for it.

I hated the kneeling at halftime with 1:30 to go much, much more.

I know what your gut said, but if they don't get it, Dallas has only a few yards to go to kick a field goal. That was just a tough call.

And I came to a conclusion last night on the drive before the half after rewatching it. Watch that first running play and keep your eyes on Johnson. I'm sure Belichick saw that, said "F-it" and ran out the clock.

 

[Deus Irae]

I hated the kneeling at halftime with 1:30 to go much, much more.

Yes, THAT is the decision people should be questioning.

 

[venecol]

Again, @LFGMac10 said it best - we're 1.25 years post Brady. I'd give him at least a couple of seasons - especially now with Jones - before we kick him to the curb. This team is already showing signs of turning things around and I think it's safe to say that it's happening faster than - at least after last season - most of us thought.

I'm not calling for Bill to get fired. Never have. I was replying to your question of who we could replace him with. I don't think that'll be a problem looking at what other teams have done the last four years is all.

 

[amfootball]

I know what your gut said, but if they don't get it, Dallas has only a few yards to go.

And I came to a conclusion last night on the drive before the half after rewatching it. Watch that first running play and keep your eyes on Johnson. I'm sure Belichick saw that, said "F-it" and ran out the clock.

Why run though on first down on your 25 with 1:30? We had burned our TO when Dallas had the ball to precisely get it back to try to score. Imagine getting a FG there and going up 17-10 and then getting the ball back after half? Such a momentum shift there IMO.

 

[50-yard-line]

This is a question I really would like people who even suggest it to be able to answer. Because, just like at QB, you can cycle through a lot of guys over a lot of years before finding the right one. People don't quite know how frustrating a lot of years might be here if that happens.

My hope was that Flores would become DC, then take over. Or Mayo.

Not NOW, but when BB is ready to go (after breaking Shula's record, I hope).

I will always remember leaping up and down, shouting "Call a damned time-out!!!!!!!" in the SB...and then I saw the Butler interception...and then I learned some humility. No coach other than BB does that. He goaded Carroll into the exact play they had been preparing for all week. It was next-level.

That said, I, too, have been utterly frustrated this year - Tampa and Dallas decisions. I'd rather go for it and lose than punt it and lose, and I saw no way, the Pats were going to stop Dallas there. You could see Jones, Phillips, and Bethel all hobbling around. It would have taken more luck for Dallas to screw up than for the Pats to execute that 4th down.

Worst of all, none of it should have happened with that OBVIOUS PI in grabbing the facemask. Egregious screw-up there, ref.

 

[Ian]

I'm not calling for Bill to get fired. Never have. I was replying to your question of who we could replace him with. I don't think that'll be a problem looking at what other teams have done the last four years is all.

I know. I'm just getting the sense that a lot of people want it done sooner than later...which obviously feels a little premature, especially when they're showing signs of already rebounding.

 

[Ian]

Why run though on first down on your 25 with 1:30? We had burned our TO when Dallas had the ball to precisely get it back to try to score. Imagine getting a FG there and going up 17-10 and then getting the ball back after half? Such a momentum shift there IMO.

If you want to talk about momentum shifts, watching Meyers' TD was just so frustrating. Great play call, great throw, great execution. Only to be called back and then we all know what happened from there.

 

[ahmed]

This is not new though. Bill was always one to play the averages for the opposite team to eventually make a mistake. That tended to work because we had teams that made fewer mistakes and more plays than the opposition most of the time. This put pressure on the opposition which tended to eventually force their hand.

This is why you don't see a correlation between good teams being more aggressive. They do not need to. It's bad teams or teams at a disadvantage that need to be more aggressive.

He has not come to grasps with the fact we are not a good team right now and therefore we need to take more risks to even the odds a bit.

This is why I thought he should have gone for it in overtime. You always take the opposition into account. That is also why it was wrong for Bills to go for it. Getting the tie and going into overtime would have been advantageous against the Titans. It would have been the right decision against a team you would trust to go the distance against you.

This whole talk of firing Bill is pure delusion though. He has so much good will he would need to stink for a decade to be fired.

 

[Ian]

Why run though on first down on your 25 with 1:30? We had burned our TO when Dallas had the ball to precisely get it back to try to score. Imagine getting a FG there and going up 17-10 and then getting the ball back after half? Such a momentum shift there IMO.

Also, there was still plenty of time. I think they called a run and if Harris breaks off a decent gain, it opens things up where they could have run a few more plays and gotten into field goal range. But that first play was ugly, so it didn't surprise me after seeing that they just decided to kneel on it.

 

[borg]

I would think that it'll be even shorter leash if there's emotion involved due to the split. Time will tell.

The monetary component is as big a factor as any.
Continue paying a reported $20+ mill a year for substandard results?

I would love to know how much of the budgeted coaching salary pool the Baby BB's consume

 

[Ian]

Yes, THAT is the decision people should be questioning.

Go back and watch that first play if you have Gamepass. I was like, "crap...so that's why."