Kyle Shanahan details play-calling regret in Falcons’ Super Bowl LI loss to Patriots

[aluminum seats]

2nd half Colts possessions prior to that final drive:

The 2 Tds, a 1 play INT at the Colts 4, a punt from the Colts 36, an interception at the Colts 36. There was no Colts having their way with the Patriots defense between the 20s.


New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts - November 15th, 2009 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Well, they had scored 2 TDs on their last 3 drives (Manning threw a pick on the first play of the 3rd drive). Two drives, 11 plays, 158 yards. That's a bit different than "two TDs in their last 7 drives," and does sort of seem like the Colts having their way between the 20s.

So it becomes a math problem: the odds the Colts score a TD from the Pats 29 with 2 minutes left (80-90%?), vs. the Colts scoring a TD from their own 27 (X%), and the odds the Pats convert the 4th & 2

Can someone better at math than me turn that into an equation? Whatever happened to @QuantumMechanic?

 

[Pape]

One of the biggest clues Shannahan dropped was about the backs... He mentioned one getting stuffed... Freeman got negative yardage on like 4 of his 6 runs in the second half... It's left unsaid but I don't think he trusted Freeman to get any positive yardage for them in the 3rd/4th quarters...

 

[BTTA]

IIRC, Belichick later talked about how Matthews had a tendency to hold against that low outside speed rush, and the Pats coaches had been waiting to work the refs on that one, and called it right by doing so for that play. It was a blatant hold, a choke that would be called in a wrestling match. For Shanahan to say that holding had been allowed all game, and would be in future games, and insinuated that the call was unjust, just highlights the difference between him and the Pats coaching staff. Just like Butler's interception, waiting for the right time to speed rush Matthews (with veteran Long, who could be depended on to execute it) was one of those details that led to SB seasons for the Pats.

I think they are really going to miss Ernie Adams.

 

[sean10mm]

The biggest problem with the Falcons play calling in SB51 was that they kept snapping the ball with tons of time on the play clock while the game clock was running. If they don't do that and make all the other mistakes the Pats lose because there is no time on the clock for the game tying drive.

 

[Patsgofor4]

One of my favorite parts of the game is watching Art Blank on the sidelines with his Southern Belle, anguished at the turn of events in the fourth quarter, after he came down to field level so that he could celebrate the victory.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

One of the biggest clues Shannahan dropped was about the backs... He mentioned one getting stuffed... Freeman got negative yardage on like 4 of his 6 runs in the second half... It's left unsaid but I don't think he trusted Freeman to get any positive yardage for them in the 3rd/4th quarters...

I already said this. Yes, Freeman got stuffed. Shanahan should not care. Put 2 arms around the ball and run it even if you lose a yard. Run the clock or make the Pats burn their time outs, and kick the field goal. At that point there is no reason to play for a TD. Coaches should have a level head in the moment and play the percentages. Atlanta's chance to win increases GREATLY with a field goal.

 

[Patsgofor4]

One of my favorite parts of the game is watching Art Blank on the sidelines with his Southern Belle, anguished at the turn of events in the fourth quarter, after he came down to field level so that he could celebrate the victory.

 

[1960Pats]

4th and 2 will always be a "suspect call", and it's not because they failed to convert. It will be a "suspect" call because it was the wrong decision.

The whole sequence was a mistake. They had the ball with 2:11 left and passed the ball incomplete on 3rd and 2. They then called their last TO before they went for it on 4th and 2. That left them with no timeout and still 2 minutes on the clock and no way to challenge the spot on the completion to Faulk. Belichick doesn't make many mistakes but he did make one there.

 

[1960Pats]

The biggest problem with the Falcons play calling in SB51 was that they kept snapping the ball with tons of time on the play clock while the game clock was running. If they don't do that and make all the other mistakes the Pats lose because there is no time on the clock for the game tying drive.

Yup. They kept running plays with 10-15 seconds still left on the play clock. That all adds up.

 

[1960Pats]

And if Kevin hadn't bobbled the ball but just caught it, it was a first down.

Maybe. Maybe not. Even with the bobble.
If we didn't burn our last TO or use the clock incorrectly we could have had the 1st down with a replay.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You’re right, he was a bust before he had a career year in a contract year with Bosa, Buckner and Ford commanding all the attention. They all weren’t around in 2020 and we got the bust version of AA again. That’s what my original comment meant.

He was drafted too high but that's not his fault. Blame SF. I had a 3rd on him, he probably should have went there or middle - late 2nd. Neither here nor there now.

Either way he's been a good player, far from a bust. He'd be out of league if that were really the case since he was drafted in 2015. He's overpaid but again SF gave it to him. Very few bust on their 2nd contact in the league.

And yes he had a career year with a legit all-star cast around him. That's nothing new and besides then he's been really good at what he's asked to do. He's never been guy you ask to get after the QB. That's not he's skill-set. He's asked to hold up at line, reset, be the penetrator and take up bodies on stunts, stuff runs and utilize his versatility when you can ... And he's done that very well.

Last year he had Dion Jordan and guys you've never heard of rushing outside and a rookie inside. It was so bad that he was asked to rush on the edge more. Definitely not his strength.

He's really good against the run, has some versatility and is tough as **** doing the dirty work in the trenches.

From where Kinlaw was picked and who he replaced is why I called him a dud. He had mixed reviews in 2020 and there wasn’t much impressive about him. I’m not a fan of trading a star player and arrogantly think you can draft his replacement with that pick as you will probably not get equal value.

Again Kinlaw was a bit of project going in so calling him a dud this early is guessing at best. That DL was a mess last year. He flashed, showed some growing pains for sure. But a dud? Like AA you're exaggerating a bit.

9ers also have bad habit of hoarding D-lineman while ignoring other pressing needs like CB, which you can argue lost them that Super Bowl. You’re not improving your team overall when you keep addressing the same position with high picks over and over again.

See the Jets and Jaguars.

Hot takes ...

 

[Pape]

I already said this. Yes, Freeman got stuffed. Shanahan should not care. Put 2 arms around the ball and run it even if you lose a yard. Run the clock or make the Pats burn their time outs, and kick the field goal. At that point there is no reason to play for a TD. Coaches should have a level head in the moment and play the percentages. Atlanta's chance to win increases GREATLY with a field goal.

Didn't get stuffed, he got stuffed multiple times. Get a first down, game over. Period. No faith in the rb to do it.

 

[p8ryts]

Maybe. Maybe not. Even with the bobble.
If we didn't burn our last TO or use the clock incorrectly we could have had the 1st down with a replay.

it was a first down

 

[jlu52]

IIRC, Belichick later talked about how Matthews had a tendency to hold against that low outside speed rush, and the Pats coaches had been waiting to work the refs on that one, and called it right by doing so for that play. It was a blatant hold, a choke that would be called in a wrestling match. For Shanahan to say that holding had been allowed all game, and would be in future games, and insinuated that the call was unjust, just highlights the difference between him and the Pats coaching staff. Just like Butler's interception, waiting for the right time to speed rush Matthews (with veteran Long, who could be depended on to execute it) was one of those details that led to SB seasons for the Pats.

I think they are really going to miss Ernie Adams.

I'm optimistic that Ernie will be ready and available for consultation, and Coach will certainly keep in touch with his close friend. Ernie is forever a Patriot.

 

[BTTA]

I'm optimistic that Ernie will be ready and available for consultation, and Coach will certainly keep in touch with his close friend. Ernie is forever a Patriot.

Oh, I think his wife is going to chase him out of the house enough for this.
But, I think his value over the years has come from his deep dives, where 100 hours of film study turns up one little tendency that they use in a game. I don't think we'll be getting that anymore, at least consistently. I don't think he was a genius, more just very disciplined, patient, and detail focused. We can only hope that someone else has been positioned to do the same.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well, they had scored 2 TDs on their last 3 drives (Manning threw a pick on the first play of the 3rd drive). Two drives, 11 plays, 158 yards. That's a bit different than "two TDs in their last 7 drives," and does sort of seem like the Colts having their way between the 20s.

They'd also been intercepted once in the last 3 drives.

So it becomes a math problem: the odds the Colts score a TD from the Pats 29 with 2 minutes left (80-90%?), vs. the Colts scoring a TD from their own 27 (X%), and the odds the Pats convert the 4th & 2

Can someone better at math than me turn that into an equation? Whatever happened to @QuantumMechanic?

It's not really a math problem. It was a "feel" problem, and Belichick's explanation for going makes that clear. But, even if you go with just math, you also have to add in the percentage chance of hitting the 4th down, and you have to do all that with the personnel involved, not with random stats based on an entire league, because the better players will succeed more often than the scrubs who are also counted in the percentages. That's one of the big flaws with sports analytics.

 

[Deus Irae]

The whole sequence was a mistake. They had the ball with 2:11 left and passed the ball incomplete on 3rd and 2. They then called their last TO before they went for it on 4th and 2. That left them with no timeout and still 2 minutes on the clock and no way to challenge the spot on the completion to Faulk. Belichick doesn't make many mistakes but he did make one there.

Yeah, it was a comedy of errors. Really, when you look back at it, it's a pretty good microcosm of the season as a whole.

 

[aluminum seats]

They'd also been intercepted once in the last 3 drives.

Yep, I mentioned that

It's not really a math problem. It was a "feel" problem

Going by feel, watching the game, I was sure the Colts would score if they got it back, so agree with Belichick on that

even if you go with just math, you also have to add in the percentage chance of hitting the 4th down

Yep, I mentioned that

 

[Deus Irae]

Yep, I mentioned that

Well, it completely shreds the "Indy was moving the ball all over the place" and "Indy was scoring at will" theories.

Going by feel, watching the game, I was sure the Colts would score if they got it back, so agree with Belichick on that

It was obviously the less likely outcome that they would march down the field from inside their own territory than from about the Patriots 30. And nobody sane was feeling good about that offense based upon the first 3 downs of that series. Belichick made the wrong call. It's not really even a difficult analysis.


This call, like the dropped pass to Welker, has always fascinated me more for the contortions people make in order to assign/deflect blame than the plays themselves. Just as with the Welker play, this play has always been obvious. The difference has been the change in perception over time. The Welker change has been significant and overly dramatic, whereas the Belichick call has remained more constant, likely both because BB has always gotten more leeway about mistakes than his players and because his longer tenure with the team resulted in more SB wins.

 

[aluminum seats]

Well, it completely shreds the "Indy was moving the ball all over the place" and "Indy was scoring at will" theories.

No it doesn't. A pick doesn't change the fact of the two other 80 yard, easy-as-pie TD drives. It certainly doesn't shred anything.

nobody sane was feeling good about that offense based upon the first 3 downs of that series

The Pats had nearly 500 yards of offense at that point, Brady had 375 yards and 3 TDs, and, oh yeah, it’s Tom Brady. I think it would be odd not to feel good about the offense getting 2 yards.