Kiper: Patriots Reached on Day Two

[Snapper]

Why would anyone be wrong in using the definition as the definition? A reach is a reach. A steal is a steal.

Because your definition is dependent on a very fallible resource. Annually, the draft plays out very differently than what conventional wisdom dictates. Were the collective view truly collective, they wouldn't be so wrong so often. Your argument rests on the belief the media sets the correct draft order and the teams don't. I believe the results of the drafts refute that.

Let's not pretend here, because it belittles us both. If you didn't believe in it, you wouldn't be arguing that someone wasn't one.

I'm here arguing because I think the annual "reach" debate is just grist for the "kool-aid" debate, your raison d'etre on this site. You live for this s***.

In one of Belichick's actual drafts, he had Chad Jackson as a second round talent and worthy of a trade up. He's gone through multiple teams and has done essentially nothing.

That's not the point. Of course people make mistakes. That's why we're saying it's an inexact science. The hours and hours of scouting don't ensure they're gonna nail these picks. There are a lot of unknowns going into the draft, and a lot of unknowns after it's over: injuries, competition, learning playbooks, getting used to the speed, strength training, etc., etc.

We're talking about which entity - media or teams - sets the actual draft order.

You're guessing at Belichick's motive, nothing more.

You're right, I am. It's all guessing. You're guessing that Wilson would be available later, something you don't know any more than I know Belichick's motives.

I'd rather he drafted a WR. I don't really see your point here, probably because your only point is really "don't question Belichick" recycled over and over. Sorry, but nobody is above questioning, and having to wait years to talk about first impressions when there's a thread for posting first impressions is a pretty nonsensical notion to me.

You're wrong, that's not my motive. I question Belichick, too. But I wait for the results to come in before criticizing what I don't have any earthly clue about beforehand. Tate, Price, Butler, et al, we can say in hindsight were poor picks. Time has proven that out. Belichick screwed up. But proof of my way of thinking is Butler; the collective thinking had him as a late first rounder. Reiss even slotted him at the Pats' pick in the first. So when they picked him at 41, everyone said "a steal!"

My way of thinking is that we have no idea whether Butler was reach or steal at 41, because we have no idea who was ready to pounce on him (or not) after that pick.

My MO is bigger than "don't question Belichick". I'm saying trust the teams rather than pundits. When the pundits screw up, it's forgotten and they live to make future mistakes. If some scout on the Patriots was the one pushing Belichick to draft Sapp at 22 in 2010, he probably would no longer be employed by New England.

Teams screw up in the draft a lot. Just look at the first round bust rate. But I'd still trust their opinions over the punditry.

 

[Deus Irae]

Because your definition is dependent on a very fallible resource. Annually, the draft plays out very differently than what conventional wisdom dictates. Were the collective view truly collective, they wouldn't be so wrong so often. Your argument rests on the belief the media sets the correct draft order and the teams don't. I believe the results of the drafts refute that.

You're making the same mistake so many do about this. Calling someone a reach doesn't mean that the player sucks. It doesn't mean the player is great, or middling, either. It just means that the player was drafted significantly higher than known overall opinion thought he would be.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I wouldn't even bother reading the draft analysts' grades after the draft. If only the GMs just had access to ESPN Insider to see Mel Kiper's Big Board, then they could easily get an A+, right? I highly doubt that Belichick would reach on a player if he really thought the player would last three more rounds, unless he got hoodwinked. Not likely, but possible. I'll take Belichick's draft info over a mainstream guy like Kiper.

Every team in the league thinks they've hit a home run on every pick, since they are choosing that player from all of the remaining players with draft eligibility. So in that sense, every team thinks they'll eventually get an A+ for the way they've played this draft.

But the Patriots typically make trades that are objective victories by trading for value. For example, a second-rounder next year for a third rounder this year is, by almost any possible measure, a good value and will ultimately allow them to have more opportunities to select better players. By being patient, they essentially have taken on the role of creditor with a high interest rate, while other teams give them more valuable future assets to pick a player they like now.

 

[State]

Tavon Wilson--Honorable All Big Ten...But Only by the Media

2011 All-Big Ten teams, individual awards - Big Ten Blog - ESPN

I know he was an honorable all-Big Ten his junior year. So why isn't he his senior year, except by the media folk? A lot of people aren't making this distinction--which is valid.

Am I reading too much into it? That the coaches who presumably know best didn't even place him on any all-star lists even though he was a team captain, a senior, and a long-term starter?

Some of my friends have accused me being against this young man. I'm not. It's just he's a latter round player now being placed in a difficult position of being taken much earlier than he should have. He's going to be battling expectations as much as other players.

I would expect a player at #48 to have more accolades from his conference than Wilson apparently has.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm here arguing because I think the annual "reach" debate is just grist for the "kool-aid" debate, your raison d'etre on this site. You live for this s***.

I'm saying that it is what it is and only time will tell. You're posting about things that aren't even related to it. If there's one of us who lives for this, it's you, not me.

I find the "reach" debate boring, because it's really not a debate. It's mostly a bunch of people, such as yourself, who get worked up because they can't seem to handle their team being said to reach for a pick.

 

[DaBruinz]

There's the rub, they rated a guy very highly who looks like crap. Since the pick I've looked at film on him and don't see anything that would make me say "I want this guy", and the scouting reports I've read confirm that opinion.

What "film" did you look at? You actually have the All-22 from the Illini games? Why do I highly doubt that?

 

[Deus Irae]

That's not the point. Of course people make mistakes. That's why we're saying it's an inexact science. The hours and hours of scouting don't ensure they're gonna nail these picks. There are a lot of unknowns going into the draft, and a lot of unknowns after it's over: injuries, competition, learning playbooks, getting used to the speed, strength training, etc., etc.

We're talking about which entity - media or teams - sets the actual draft order.

No, we're not, which is really the whole point.

You're right, I am. It's all guessing. You're guessing that Wilson would be available later, something you don't know any more than I know Belichick's motives.

Please go find where I guessed that Wilson would be available later. While you're at it, please find where I actually criticized the actual player.

The rest of your post is just a continued rehash of "reach", so I'll skip it.

 

[DaBruinz]

I didn't realize that BB's drafting was responsible for a flu bug going through the locker room or 12-men-on-the-field penalties. . . .

Or a referee getting so caught up in the game that he doesn't call a clear "In the Grasp" and blow the play dead. And he admits to such after the game. That play just happened to be the play that sealed the fate of the Pats that day..

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

What "film" did you look at? You actually have the All-22 from the Illini games? Why do I highly doubt that?

Didn't you call the NT Pittsburgh drafted a "steal". Should we assume you have the All-22 for his team?

It appears only some people are allowed to have opinions on players on this board.

 

[BSR]

You're making the same mistake so many do about this. Calling someone a reach doesn't mean that the player sucks. It doesn't mean the player is great, or middling, either. It just means that the player was drafted significantly higher than known overall opinion thought he would be.

This is correct. It only matters if you think that the websites and Kipers know more about drafting then BB. I don't.

 

[DaBruinz]

The Kipers and McShay's do talk to NFL scouts and GMs. And they are not the ones deciding who the 300 or so players are that get invited to the combine. Not only was Wilson not invited to the combine by he NFL, but the overwhelming consensus was that. He was a very late round pick or more likely would be a rookie free agent. Drafting him in the mid-second round is a monumental reach. Mankind was a reach only in that he was drafted a round or two earlier than most thought he would go. Not the same at all. Volmer was different in that he had a unique combination of size and athleticism that the Patriots coveted. Besides his late start playing football made a difference to some teams. I don't see any of those factors in play for Wilson. There is nothing about his size, speed or quickness that warrants such a reach. I hope this kid turn out to be the equivalent of Eugene Wilson. If the Pays liked him better Han anyone else, then so be it. Hope it works out. It's just hard to believe they could not have traded down and got him in the late third or fourth round.

Where do you get that "the overwhelming consensus was that" Wilson was worth a late round pick or UDFA talent? Neither of the two scouting agencies that are used by the teams release their information to anyone but the teams. And there are several teams (Chiefs, Falcons, Pats, etc) that have their own Scouting Departments and do not subscribe to those two scouting agencies.

All you have is the hack sites that are comprised of the Kipers, Mayocks, McShays, etc, who have no bearing on the NFL and are posting their own opinions on players. But I have news for you. They are wrong about players even more than the NFL teams are.. So, what does that tell you? At best, you can only use them as a general guideline that has to be adjusted based on what you actually see for yourself.

 

[DaBruinz]

Didn't you call the NT Pittsburgh drafted a "steal". Should we assume you have the All-22 for his team?

It appears only some people are allowed to have opinions on players on this board.

It would be nice if you actually read what the reply was to. See, Snake-eyes claimed to have actually watched film on Wilson. And that is what I was questioning. I wanted to know what actual film he watched? Was it the ALL-22 or just clips from TV that may or may not have been showing Wilson..

As for your stupid comment, everyone is entitled to their opinion. But you are also entitled to the repercussions voicing that opinion brings. It would be nice if you remembered that..

 

[Deus Irae]

This is correct. It only matters if you think that the websites and Kipers know more about drafting then BB. I don't.

Ehh... using your argument, there's no such thing as a reach, and Matt Millen is beyond questioning on message boards and in the media. You're welcome to ascribe to that theory, but I hope you actually practice it, to avoid hypocrisy, by refusing to ever criticize any coach, gm, scout or player, in even the mildest form.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

It would be nice if you actually read what the reply was to. See, Snake-eyes claimed to have actually watched film on Wilson. And that is what I was questioning. I wanted to know what actual film he watched? Was it the ALL-22 or just clips from TV that may or may not have been showing Wilson..

As for your stupid comment, everyone is entitled to their opinion. But you are also entitled to the repercussions voicing that opinion brings. It would be nice if you remembered that..

You think it is perfectly OK to call someone a steal yet you have no more information on that player than posters on this board who call Wilson a reach. Must me nice to be sitting on both sides of the fence.

 

[Real World]

Talk about a reach.

 

[serifyn]

Hes smart, fast, versatile, coachable, team oriented, loves the game, and he is strong enough in each of these areas to be taken by a Bill Belichick who generally gets more value out of his picks than anyone.

I dont see what the problem is here. just because some talking head on ESPN doesnt know who he is doesnt mean that he wont make a great addition to the Patriots.

Could the patriots have gotten him in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds? maybe. but if the patriots were as high on him as they appear to have been, they took him before someone else (San Diego) had the chance to, i have no problem with this.

 

[shmessy]

That's because he's right more often than not, or more often that most of his peers (if he truly even has any at present). It's kind of mindless to keep harping on the fact that he isn't always right once you embrace the simple fact that no one is... That's what the koolaid is, not a salute to perfection but a homage to being as close to it all things considered as rational fans could ever dream of their HC/GM/organization being.

So again, think you can do better? Like Nike says, go for it.

Actually it is not subjective at all. It is black and white when you trade #62 for #90 and #163 when the Bills then trade #67 for #87 and #123.

It's not an opinion at all. The second round as a whole was bad for the New England Patriots.

I'm ok with one "reach", but to follow it up with a non-tax deuctible charitable donation is just hideous.

It is fact.

 

[BlueThunder]

It's all about finding trading partners. If BB got the guy he wanted, who cares? Nobody here is in the war room reporting on who is calling and offering what.

 

[shmessy]

Or do you think maybe BB just enjoys squandering resources. Or that he just doesn't give a sh*t about maximizing his returns from the draft? It's got to be one of those 3, so which is it?

Wilson was their target. They executed the choice. Belichick is the unquestioned master of navigating a draft board up or down. Wth are you complaining about?

Well, your definition of not "squandering resources" and being the "unquestioned master of navigating a draft board up or down" evidently includes this formula:

62 = 90 + 163 > 67 = 87 + 120

Sorry, but I reserve the right to "question" this "unquestioned mastery".

 

[skinnydog]

Where do you get that "the overwhelming consensus was that" Wilson was worth a late round pick or UDFA talent? Neither of the two scouting agencies that are used by the teams release their information to anyone but the teams. And there are several teams (Chiefs, Falcons, Pats, etc) that have their own Scouting Departments and do not subscribe to those two scouting agencies.

All you have is the hack sites that are comprised of the Kipers, Mayocks, McShays, etc, who have no bearing on the NFL and are posting their own opinions on players. But I have news for you. They are wrong about players even more than the NFL teams are.. So, what does that tell you? At best, you can only use them as a general guideline that has to be adjusted based on what you actually see for yourself.

Come on DaBruinz are really suggesting that the 2 secret scouting Services had this kid rated anywhere near a mid-second round pick. Really? Do you have anything to back that up? Anything? Look, I think Kiper is an idiot, but he and the Mayock's do speak to scouts and do use that info to set their own boards. I find it highly unlikely that the NFL would invite about 300 kids to the combine but overlook a second round talent from a Big Ten School. Oh, and Bedard tweeted after the pick that the scouts he spoke to we're stunned and were also sating WHO? Then he reaffirms that in a post based on what multiple scouts told him. So yeah, I don't think it is going out on a limb to say the overwhelming consensus was that he was a late round pick or even a free agent.

Hey, I hope the Pats nailed it on their evaluation, but it's likely they are out on a limb on this one.

For what it's worth I loved the draft overall and if a reach on a safety/cornerback hybrid is the price to pay for the rest of the picks, then so be it. But it's still a big reach