Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by KontradictioN, Sep 28, 2018.
Hahaha. I was like, "What is he not understanding about this?"
Stats are important but all that matters is points allowed. Right now they are the #12.
Football Outsiders stats *are* adjusted for strength of opponent, and have the defense currently ranked 16th, 9th against the run and 19th against the pass.
That sounds just about right. (And note that because of opponent adjustments NE's defensive rating in FO's system actually got a little bit worse after the Buffalo game because Buffalo's offense is so horribly bad.)
To @luuked 's point about defenses not performing to the level we've seen in the past, notice that the Patriots are almost exactly middle of the pack by DVOA. Some teams are severely underperforming, while others have managed to maintain some level of good play (and we've already played four of the top defenses this year, with more on the way), but the fact that the Patriots are slightly ABOVE average is shocking, given past expectations and current performance. Still, I think they'll finish the year top ten in defense, with a top three offense -- that should be enough to give the Patriots a chance to compete for a ring.
Thats the thing that I come back to. No matter where you look this defense is middle of the pack in most metrics. They are neither great nor terrible even though they can be either of the two given specific matchups.
This is pretty much the same kind of defense we had in successful years and it will be mostly on the more talented offense to leverage that into a chance at a title. Which is exactly where you want things to be. In the hands of Brady, Gronk, Edelman, White and Gordon.
Wow that's deep.. not quite defensive geek however.
Unfortunately OP is a bit stat geek oriented.
Accurate Defense analysis is should be trend weighted. Means early stats mean relative squat so rankings are whacked. The other thing is if 7th and 22nd are separated by a few percentage points numbers wise. What's the ranking matter..? Essentially tied..
Next, factor in w-L since playing with lead dictates strategy regarding yards.
Football complimentary so best stat is w-L... 6-2..pretty good. IMO.
Question is what do you expect this week ? Game plan specific, match up specific, playing to potential.. playing better over all? Healthy.? That is the trend.. right?
Huh? What does "look fine" mean? They cut a mean posture? Their helmets are on straight?
Wait...are we resurrecting the "eye test" again?
Yards-wise, the defense is only slightly better halfway through the season compared to this point last year. But that's what one would expect from a bend-don't-break defense. PPG allowed is also only slightly better at this point. But I think its important to put it into perspective. In 2018 the defense has been consistent at least with its PPG allowed, where last year the 2017 defense had higher highs and lower lows.
22.375 2017 PPG allowed -> 23.125 2018 PPG allowed
32 PPG first 4 games 2017 + 12.75 PPG next 4 -> 21 PPG first 4 games 2018 + 25.25 PPG next 4
It was very erratic, this year is well... so-so. Where this year's defense excels and what separates it from last year's defensive squad so far is turnovers. 9 last year halfway through the season, 16 so far this season.
Gotta say, even though most of the numbers look the same, I at least am enjoying how much more consistent the defense is this year and how opportunistic they've been at getting turnovers. Showing some fire this year, even if not much (yet).
And now things get real. On to the 2md half of the season!
What was a more accurate assessment of the 2017 defense? The so-called “eye test” or the ranking that everyone pimps that had them as a top 5 unit in the league by season’s end?
Why not? Last season we had the same people telling us that not only was the defense vastly improved but that they were actually a top defense.
Then we go to the AFCCG and Bortles lights us up and in the Super Bowl the D has a historic pant ****ting night against Nick Foles.
Those of us who had doubts about the defense last season were proven correct. And here we sit with very similar concerns this year.
The defense and ST is the only reason we reached the SB when the harmless and hapless offense could not move the ball at all against the Jaguars.
Whine and bitch about the SB all you want but the AFCCG was one of the worst offensive playoff performances of the last 10 years.
Too bad we didn't have an elite defense like the Vikings to stop the Philadelphia Nick Foles'. It would have made things easier.. right ? Or a fast, elite LB group like the Falcons.. Jesus this would have really helped beating the Eagles.
Is this the moment we all pretend that the word "eye-test" was not uttered in 2016 all the time as well ?
Offense struggled for a while against an elite defense yet turned it up at the end and pulled off another comeback to win.
The defense struggled against the hapless Blake Bortles. Blake Bortles who has, twice in 3 matches, had "the game of his life" against the Patriots.
The Super Bowl was a debacle of epic proportions for the defense and their issues were not satisfactorily addressed in the offseason. It is likely what will sink us again this season.
Is that where it originated from? I always thought it came from last season. But in any event, the "eye test" can't be dismissed just like statistical analysis of the team, as long as it's followed with context, cannot. That's the point.
I was not of the belief that the 2016 defense was bad even as someone using 'the eye test'. I thought they were OK, the qualm was with some here pretending they were a top 3 defense which they weren't.
Oh please absolutely none of the concern were proven.
Show me please the posts where people were worried before the season that Branch had regressed and we could not stop the run. Because that was the major flaw of the 2017 Patriots. Instead we had a 4 week circlejerk about how Gilmore is an dyslexic idiotic that needs special tapes and how we should have kept Logan Ryan over him.
We have absolutely NO similar concerns this year as we had last year. The run defense is not #32 but absolute middle of the pack. We are back to giving up the same amount of plays per drive as in 2015 and 2016. But maybe most importantly we have produced 16 turnovers this year at half time. Last year we had 18 in total.
There is absolutely no similarity between the 2017 and 2018 defenses. And if you can't see that then that is pretty telling.
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