Just considering Film and Production, Penix should be #3 QB taken

[50-yard-line]

Would you want him in the top 12 picks

If they took him at 3, I’d be fine with it.

 

[EMpats]

Penix struggles with touch in the short and intermediate passing game and lacks dynamic playmaking ability if the play breaks down. I’m a hard pass. I think people are falling in love with some “wow” throws he can make but he’s a major red flag in multiple important areas.

 

[50-yard-line]

Penix struggles with touch in the short and intermediate passing game and lacks dynamic playmaking ability if the play breaks down. I’m a hard pass. I think people are falling in love with some “wow” throws he can make but he’s a major red flag in multiple important areas.

Almost 5.000 yards, 36-11td-int, 157+ rating.

All of them have warts. His are no worse than the others, certainly.

But as I said, I’m just coming at it from a fan perspective. I’ll root for whomever they pick.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

If you love a quarterback just take him at 3, dinking around and trading means you don't love any of them.

There's no way to guarantee you even get Penix if you trade to 11, you never know if the Raiders or Giants will take the 5th QB in the top 10.

 

[Ivan]

Gronk had prior injuries also, you would not have picked him i see? The kid is legit. Stands in the pocket like Brady, strong arm, accurate, throws the ball before the reciever breaks and fast.

My mistake. I didn’t realize that Penix was going to be one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the history of football. Not sure how that got by me? You are spot on, by all means take Penix at 3. Great catch on your part. 5 thumbs up.

 

[mgteich]

Would you want him in the top 12 picks

If I were picking at 11, with the top 4 QB's gone, yes, I would feel lucky that Penix was still there and would pick Penix, expecting Nix to be #12. I suspect that if I had trading down to 11, I might be trying to trade back up for McCarthy (gaining the extra pick, likely a 2025 first).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Gronk had prior injuries also, you would not have picked him i see? The kid is legit. Stands in the pocket like Brady, strong arm, accurate, throws the ball before the reciever breaks and fast.

There's a difference between GRONK's health issue and a QB having four season-ending injuries in his first 20 games, including tearing the same ACL twice. Plus he's going to take more hits and sacks in the NFL than he did the last two years at UW. There's no way I'd hand him a $30M+ contract that's fully guaranteed.

 

[Username]

Penix has a lot of arm talent, but I think his accuracy is being overstated. His WR's have to make adjustments far too often to haul in his passes, he rarely hits them in stride.

Good prospect, but I wouldn't take him in the first round

 

[TinhWoodhead]

i dunno why but he looks like an nba/mlb player to me

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I heard on one of the pats podcasts that penix struggles on short-intermediate throws. Michigan recognized this and basically took away the deep ball/forced him to make the shorter throws causing him to have an awful game. Kind of concerning when he’s supposed to be one of the more seasoned prospects

 

[Ivan]

There's a difference between GRONK's health issue and a QB having four season-ending injuries in his first 20 games, including tearing the same ACL twice. Plus he's going to take more hits and sacks in the NFL than he did the last two years at UW. There's no way I'd hand him a $30M+ contract that's fully guaranteed.

Agree completely. I would take a flier on Penix in the 3rd or 4th round, but never in the 1st. .

 

[KCSVEN]

I heard on one of the pats podcasts that penix struggles on short-intermediate throws. Michigan recognized this and basically took away the deep ball/forced him to make the shorter throws causing him to have an awful game. Kind of concerning when he’s supposed to be one of the more seasoned prospects

He has unconventional mechanics (Front shoulder opens too fast, leans to side on throw, lacks elbow extension on throw, and lacks hip and shoulder rotation). It works for him in college, transferring to NFL is not impossible but makes it much harder. These all lead to more inaccuracy on shorter throws and you just can't teach new mechanics, you need to help him improve with the way he throws but some QB's are successful with different mechanics, the "perfect" mechanics are not necessarily needed to be successful, but he is at a disadvantage considering his age and injury history.
His lack of extending plays and scrambling in this NFL is a detriment.
He's worth a shot in round 2 if he is around but unlikely he'll be accurate enough in the NFL to be a long-term franchise QB. I guess tf he can put it all together, which is unlikely, his best pro comparison would then be someone like Philip Rivers. He's not the #3 QB prospect in the draft based on film. Production, by itself, in college is not the best way to judge QB prospects.

Compare his mechanics to Jordan Travis and you can see why Travis might be the next Brock Purdy and Penix might struggle despite the difference in arm strength.

 

[Salsalife]

He has unconventional mechanics (Front shoulder opens too fast, leans to side on throw, lacks elbow extension on throw, and lacks hip and shoulder rotation). It works for him in college, transferring to NFL is not impossible but makes it much harder. These all lead to more inaccuracy on shorter throws and you just can't teach new mechanics, you need to help him improve with the way he throws but some QB's are successful with different mechanics, the "perfect" mechanics are not necessarily needed to be successful, but he is at a disadvantage considering his age and injury history.
His lack of extending plays and scrambling in this NFL is a detriment.
He's worth a shot in round 2 if he is around but unlikely he'll be accurate enough in the NFL to be a long-term franchise QB. I guess tf he can put it all together, which is unlikely, his best pro comparison would then be someone like Philip Rivers. He's not the #3 QB prospect in the draft based on film. Production, by itself, in college is not the best way to judge QB prospects.

Compare his mechanics to Jordan Travis and you can see why Travis might be the next Brock Purdy and Penix might struggle despite the difference in arm strength.

Best PFF grade when moved beyond their first read:

Caleb Williams 90.6

2nd: Michael Penix Jr. 86.2.

Qb. Brady had a knee issue also. Kid ran a 4.5. Best qb ready to start in the NFL, full stop.

 

[rogerthat]

Penix is from FL so maybe Kraft takes him in order to find the best strip malls containing secret brothels.

 

[Kdo5]

He tore two ACL’s. No way I’m drafting 24 year old QB’s with that injury history.

I don’t know if I could get behind that either. Sometimes there are guys who are just injury risks, even if it’s not entirely clear why. Maybe there is, maybe it’s simple bad luck.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

If I were picking at 11, with the top 4 QB's gone, yes, I would feel lucky that Penix was still there and would pick Penix, expecting Nix to be #12. I suspect that if I had trading down to 11, I might be trying to trade back up for McCarthy (gaining the extra pick, likely a 2025 first).

A lot of QB needy teams
I think there will be a run sooner than expected

 

[KCSVEN]

Best PFF grade when moved beyond their first read:

Caleb Williams 90.6

2nd: Michael Penix Jr. 86.2.

Qb. Brady had a knee issue also. Kid ran a 4.5. Best qb ready to start in the NFL, full stop.

I can't find any statistical evidence that college second read PFF translates to NFL success, do you have that data?

2 ACL's and 2 shoulder injuries do not equate to Tom Brady's one hit to the knee.

Penix might succeed but, like Justin Fields, players with unconventional mechanics that can't be changed tend to struggle with accuracy in the NFL. Can it happen? Sure, just the odds are so much lower you can't take them in the first round. He's a huge risk.
Like I said his upside is Philip Rivers, he has that level of arm strength, just can't figure out how he can be accurate enough at the NFL level with the way he throws. You see it in his pro day, just not accurate enough.

 

[Ivan]

I don’t know if I could get behind that either. Sometimes there are guys who are just injury risks, even if it’s not entirely clear why. Maybe there is, maybe it’s simple bad luck.

I would be fine with a 3rd or 4th round flier on Penix as a back up. But I wouldn’t touch him with a first round pick. If they hate the QB’s that much then just trade out of 3 and don’t bother with quarterback. Then they can completely suck again and see what happens next offseason.

 

[rogerthat]

I can't find any statistical evidence that college second read PFF translates to NFL success, do you have that data?

2 ACL's and 2 shoulder injuries do not equate to Tom Brady's one hit to the knee.

Penix might succeed but, like Justin Fields, players with unconventional mechanics that can't be changed tend to struggle with accuracy in the NFL. Can it happen? Sure, just the odds are so much lower you can't take them in the first round. He's a huge risk.
Like I said his upside is Philip Rivers, he has that level of arm strength, just can't figure out how he can be accurate enough at the NFL level with the way he throws. You see it in his pro day, just not accurate enough.

Well said. The reason I wouldn't take Penix is his mechanics.

 

[doesntmatter1]

He makes more big time throws than anyone in this draft imo, but I don't trust our oline. Our shaky oline is half the reason I'm drawn to dual threat qbs like Jayden Daniels.