WaterfallJumper
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
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Part I
The UDFA thread took a detour over the weekend to discuss the Joejuan Williams selection. I promised a more in-depth look at Joejuan, why I liked him so much, and his fit in the Patriots scheme. Tangential to that debate: a discussion of the relative value of testing numbers (such as the 40) and whether or not it's acceptable to brandish Combine results as authoritative weapons in our battle for the truth. I'll try to dig into both aspects in this post, since there's room for nuance re: testing.
This is going to be way, way too long, so I'll split the film study into a second post. I'll start it off with clips from others, but I plan to update with my own gifs once I've had a chance to create them throughout the day. I have a number of plays in mind from my film study that I want to highlight, but I can only do so much while I'm at work.
@scott99 @Deus Irae -- I'm picking up our discussion from the UDFA thread.
Anyone who listened to listened to Belichick's pre-draft press conference should have locked in Williams as a near certainty for the Patriots:
The writing was on the wall far earlier in the process, however. Williams was #1 in the SEC in passes broken up, solo tackles by a corner, and interceptions by a corner. That's great production in probably the most competitive conference (Caserio's own words after the draft). Belichick worked him out personally, and we met with him at least twice throughout the draft process.
League "sources" were convinced that it was likely he would end up with the Patriots:
Daniel Jeremiah had predicted before the Combine that if Williams ran in the 4.5 range, he would probably go in the first round. Sure enough, once he ran better at his pro day (laser timed, by the way; he attributed his improvement to fresh legs and better technique, although he still didn't get a great start, which could have potentially helped him break 4.5), Jeremiah put him back in the first round -- notice he doesn't even reach the Patriots: Daniel Jeremiah 2019 NFL mock draft 4.0: Redskins land Haskins
Breer put him in the first as well, going to the Patriots: The MMQB’s five most recent NFL mock drafts, all in one place
Schrager also had him going to the Patriots at 32: Peter Schrager 2019 NFL mock draft 3.0: Texans move into top 10
Reuters had him going to the Patriots at 64: Chad Reuter 2019 seven-round NFL mock draft: Round 2
CBS also had him at 64: Seven-round 2019 NFL Mock Draft: Full breakdowns for all 32 teams, with 34 trades and all the picks
I list all of these just to show that he wasn't some fringe prospect; many people thought he was a first - second round prospect, and quite a few also made the connection to the Patriots. Anyone watching his games and listening to draft prognostication could put them together. Here's just one example of several of us discussing Williams at 32. Winovich was also on our radar:
What Pick Would Surprise You But...
Plenty of analytics sites liked Joejuan Williams. Winks, for example, who has some of the most interesting statistical breakdowns and conclusions around, listed Joejuan in his first team all analytic defense:
As for cornerback testing, let's be clear: the 40 time does matter for corners. No other test correlates very well with NFL success for cornerbacks. Running well in the 40 is the only test with even general correlation, because ultimately cornerbacks need to be able to stick with receivers and must have recovery speed when they're inevitably beaten (even Law, Bailey, Revis, etc lost reps; it's humanly impossible to win every single battle against a receiver). And even then, it's not a perfect science:
Coverage metrics are probably a better way of looking at future performance, and even then they do a better job of weeding out players who fall below thresholds than they do predicting super stars.
Learning which metrics matter for which role really makes a difference. For example, for shorter receivers, there's almost no NFL production correlation with any testing performance, although agility seems to help; for receivers over 6'2, looking at their jumps and 10 yard splits (and two seasons of high end college production) is one of the best predictors of success. It's no surprise that different positions match up with different tests, but it's worth looking closely when there's a strong link, such as short shuttle for OL.
Good testing doesn't guarantee good football players. We should remember that when going wide-eyed over watching Ken Webster jump 43" even though I think he has a shot. Good football players, however, almost always test well. It's not a shock that the best athletes make . . . the best athletes. Yes, there are a few notable exceptions. Players can certainly overcome physical limitations. Ignoring bad testing because you want the player to succeed? Well, that usually involves more hope than analysis. For a player to miss a benchmark (or multiple marks) means that you've got to have extraordinarily circumstances to counteract the poor performances.
That said, there are some mitigating factors to consider, particularly for different roles and sizes. There's some precedent -- not a guarantee, obviously, but precedent -- for big, physical corners with long arms and explosive traits to do well regardless of speed disadvantage. Many more crashed and burned, no doubt, but it's still worth looking at historical comparisons. Williams stacks up very well against most of them, as you can see in the screenshots below this wall of text. His size and physicality, combined with his tape, which we'll look at in the next post, gives me reason to believe that he's got a very strong chance at continuing the trend as a slower corner who doesn't pay for his relative lack of long speed in the NFL.
It's also worth noting that the difference between a 4.4 and a 4.5 is essentially one step. A tall player with long arms can reduce the throwing windows sufficiently to remove the advantage given by an extra step. If that player also has a strong jam and knows how to get away with subtle hand checks and jersey tugs, then he may gain positioning advantage against the receiver.
Speaking of receivers, here's a list of top twenty receiving yards last year. Other than Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, TY Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham, and Stefon diggs, roughly 75% of these receivers and tight ends run in the same 4.5 - 4.6 range as Williams. He's exactly the matchup piece the Patriots will play against these bigger, physical receivers and tight ends.
VS:
Bonus picture: Here is Joejuan Williams at 17 years old, meeting Richard Sherman. Maybe Williams will carry on Sherman's legacy? I could see him as a Sherman / Browner hybrid for the Patriots.
Of course, how can we hate his response to coming here?
The UDFA thread took a detour over the weekend to discuss the Joejuan Williams selection. I promised a more in-depth look at Joejuan, why I liked him so much, and his fit in the Patriots scheme. Tangential to that debate: a discussion of the relative value of testing numbers (such as the 40) and whether or not it's acceptable to brandish Combine results as authoritative weapons in our battle for the truth. I'll try to dig into both aspects in this post, since there's room for nuance re: testing.
This is going to be way, way too long, so I'll split the film study into a second post. I'll start it off with clips from others, but I plan to update with my own gifs once I've had a chance to create them throughout the day. I have a number of plays in mind from my film study that I want to highlight, but I can only do so much while I'm at work.
@scott99 @Deus Irae -- I'm picking up our discussion from the UDFA thread.
Anyone who listened to listened to Belichick's pre-draft press conference should have locked in Williams as a near certainty for the Patriots:
The writing was on the wall far earlier in the process, however. Williams was #1 in the SEC in passes broken up, solo tackles by a corner, and interceptions by a corner. That's great production in probably the most competitive conference (Caserio's own words after the draft). Belichick worked him out personally, and we met with him at least twice throughout the draft process.
League "sources" were convinced that it was likely he would end up with the Patriots:
Daniel Jeremiah had predicted before the Combine that if Williams ran in the 4.5 range, he would probably go in the first round. Sure enough, once he ran better at his pro day (laser timed, by the way; he attributed his improvement to fresh legs and better technique, although he still didn't get a great start, which could have potentially helped him break 4.5), Jeremiah put him back in the first round -- notice he doesn't even reach the Patriots: Daniel Jeremiah 2019 NFL mock draft 4.0: Redskins land Haskins
Breer put him in the first as well, going to the Patriots: The MMQB’s five most recent NFL mock drafts, all in one place
Schrager also had him going to the Patriots at 32: Peter Schrager 2019 NFL mock draft 3.0: Texans move into top 10
Reuters had him going to the Patriots at 64: Chad Reuter 2019 seven-round NFL mock draft: Round 2
CBS also had him at 64: Seven-round 2019 NFL Mock Draft: Full breakdowns for all 32 teams, with 34 trades and all the picks
I list all of these just to show that he wasn't some fringe prospect; many people thought he was a first - second round prospect, and quite a few also made the connection to the Patriots. Anyone watching his games and listening to draft prognostication could put them together. Here's just one example of several of us discussing Williams at 32. Winovich was also on our radar:
What Pick Would Surprise You But...
Plenty of analytics sites liked Joejuan Williams. Winks, for example, who has some of the most interesting statistical breakdowns and conclusions around, listed Joejuan in his first team all analytic defense:
As for cornerback testing, let's be clear: the 40 time does matter for corners. No other test correlates very well with NFL success for cornerbacks. Running well in the 40 is the only test with even general correlation, because ultimately cornerbacks need to be able to stick with receivers and must have recovery speed when they're inevitably beaten (even Law, Bailey, Revis, etc lost reps; it's humanly impossible to win every single battle against a receiver). And even then, it's not a perfect science:
Coverage metrics are probably a better way of looking at future performance, and even then they do a better job of weeding out players who fall below thresholds than they do predicting super stars.
Learning which metrics matter for which role really makes a difference. For example, for shorter receivers, there's almost no NFL production correlation with any testing performance, although agility seems to help; for receivers over 6'2, looking at their jumps and 10 yard splits (and two seasons of high end college production) is one of the best predictors of success. It's no surprise that different positions match up with different tests, but it's worth looking closely when there's a strong link, such as short shuttle for OL.
Good testing doesn't guarantee good football players. We should remember that when going wide-eyed over watching Ken Webster jump 43" even though I think he has a shot. Good football players, however, almost always test well. It's not a shock that the best athletes make . . . the best athletes. Yes, there are a few notable exceptions. Players can certainly overcome physical limitations. Ignoring bad testing because you want the player to succeed? Well, that usually involves more hope than analysis. For a player to miss a benchmark (or multiple marks) means that you've got to have extraordinarily circumstances to counteract the poor performances.
That said, there are some mitigating factors to consider, particularly for different roles and sizes. There's some precedent -- not a guarantee, obviously, but precedent -- for big, physical corners with long arms and explosive traits to do well regardless of speed disadvantage. Many more crashed and burned, no doubt, but it's still worth looking at historical comparisons. Williams stacks up very well against most of them, as you can see in the screenshots below this wall of text. His size and physicality, combined with his tape, which we'll look at in the next post, gives me reason to believe that he's got a very strong chance at continuing the trend as a slower corner who doesn't pay for his relative lack of long speed in the NFL.
It's also worth noting that the difference between a 4.4 and a 4.5 is essentially one step. A tall player with long arms can reduce the throwing windows sufficiently to remove the advantage given by an extra step. If that player also has a strong jam and knows how to get away with subtle hand checks and jersey tugs, then he may gain positioning advantage against the receiver.
Speaking of receivers, here's a list of top twenty receiving yards last year. Other than Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, TY Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham, and Stefon diggs, roughly 75% of these receivers and tight ends run in the same 4.5 - 4.6 range as Williams. He's exactly the matchup piece the Patriots will play against these bigger, physical receivers and tight ends.
VS:
Bonus picture: Here is Joejuan Williams at 17 years old, meeting Richard Sherman. Maybe Williams will carry on Sherman's legacy? I could see him as a Sherman / Browner hybrid for the Patriots.
Of course, how can we hate his response to coming here?
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