Jimmy's Value

[Tunescribe]

It boggles my mind that anyone would consider trading Brady while he is still the best player in football.

I've never suggested trading Brady. Why does it have to be either/or? People figure it's a foregone conclusion the Patriots can't afford to keep both players. They might have to overspend on the position a year or two to keep both of them, but in the long run it would be worth it.

 

[pazrul72]

It boggles my mind that so many people here have consigned Garoppolo to trade bait. This player could be worth more to the Patriots than a draft pick or two as an important contributor for years to come.

Brady counts for 23 MILLION in dead money if cut or traded

 

[Tunescribe]

Brady counts for 23 MILLION in dead money if cut or traded

Did I say anything about cutting or trading Brady? Please read post No. 41.

 

[RobertWeathers]

There is a time and a place for this discussion.

Today is not that day nor are the days, weeks and months from now.

A discussion on this topic can be had after the Super Bowl has been won by NE and TB12

 

[pazrul72]

I've never suggested trading Brady. Why does it have to be either/or? People figure it's a foregone conclusion the Patriots can't afford to keep both players. They might have to overspend on the position a year or two to keep both of them, but in the long run it would be worth it.

Sounds interesting tunes, how would you do it? Keep in mind we are talking Jimmy continuing to look like a solid capable starter on most teams. Why would he want to sit the next 2-3 years? How much are you paying him? What if keeping Jimmy was the difference in losing Collins? It's a sad fact of today's NFL, you simply can't keep everyone. As a pats fan I would love to see Jimmy sign a 2 year extension that pays him 5 mil a year with incentives if Brady gets hurt that could pay him 10 mil for playing say...60% of the snaps. If I was Jimmy why would I take that though when I can most likely get 15 as the unquestioned starter on another team? It's unfortunate but IMO the timing of Brady's deal and how long there is left on Grop's deal make it impossible for Jimmy to be anything but trade bait. The return on a trade is just too valuable


Sorry post 41 was not up yet when I replied, I only saw that after.

 

[patchick]

I've never suggested trading Brady. Why does it have to be either/or? People figure it's a foregone conclusion the Patriots can't afford to keep both players. They might have to overspend on the position a year or two to keep both of them, but in the long run it would be worth it.

I assume it has to be either/or because it's not just about what the Patriots can afford, and it's not just the Patriots' decision.

If Jimmy Garoppolo plays well in these four games, he WILL have starting opportunities in the NFL when he becomes a free agent. I can't believe that any cash the Patriots offer him to sit on the bench could compete with that. He was beside himself with joy to finally be playing football last night.

 

[Tunescribe]

Sounds interesting tunes, how would you do it? Keep in mind we are talking Jimmy continuing to look like a solid capable starter on most teams. Why would he want to sit the next 2-3 years? How much are you paying him? What if keeping Jimmy was the difference in losing Collins? It's a sad fact of today's NFL, you simply can't keep everyone. As a pats fan I would love to see Jimmy sign a 2 year extension that pays him 5 mil a year with incentives if Brady gets hurt that could pay him 10 mil for playing say...60% of the snaps. If I was Jimmy why would I take that though when I can most likely get 15 as the unquestioned starter on another team? It's unfortunate but IMO the timing of Brady's deal and how long there is left on Grop's deal make it impossible for Jimmy to be anything but trade bait. The return on a trade is just too valuable

The return on a trade would be draft picks, and even first-round picks are a roll of the dice. I think the important question is the one bolded above: he might take a bit less to extend with the Patriots knowing it's a quality program he's familiar with in which he will be groomed as Brady's successor. Like I said, the Patriots might have to overspend on the QB position for a year or two but it just might be worth the sacrifice if Garoppolo is as good as I think he might be.

 

[fnordcircle]

It boggles my mind that so many people here have consigned Garoppolo to trade bait. This player could be worth more to the Patriots than a draft pick or two as an important contributor for years to come.

It's because I think Brady will remain the starter here for at least the next 3-4 seasons which goes well past when Jimmy's contract is up and I highly doubt Jimmy would want to sign a contract to sit on his butt for that long.

So with his contract up next year and him playing this year you have a prime opportunity to maximize value in him while getting the player what I would assume the player wants - a chance to be The Guy somewhere.

The math just doesn't add up to me for the Pats to keep Jimmy. Not unless Brady declines rapidly or something. It's why I think Jacoby is currently the most likely heir apparent to Brady.

I think the important question is the one bolded above: he might take a bit less to extend with the Patriots knowing it's a quality program he's familiar with in which he will be groomed as Brady's successor.

Every year Brady seems to push out the likely end date for his career, if I'm a player who wants to maximize my value or even just my playing time out of love of the sport I don't think I'd take less to sit longer. I mean we're talking 6-7 seasons of being a backup for Jimmy based on what Brady says and how Brady has been playing.

 

[lurker1965]

It depends on how stupid/desperate a team like, say Cleveland is. It could be anywhere from trading first round picks from 32 to 1 over all, to a 1 and a two. (Before anyone craps on the 1 and a two being stupid, we are talking Cleveland )

 

[IcyPatriot]

Jimmy's value = desperation of the team that wants him.

 

[HeadHunter]

I've never suggested trading Brady. Why does it have to be either/or? People figure it's a foregone conclusion the Patriots can't afford to keep both players. They might have to overspend on the position a year or two to keep both of them, but in the long run it would be worth it.

This would be ideal if JG continues looking like he did last night. I just don't know how they would do it. Because having a true franchise QB to step in when Brady is ready to hang em up, is far more valuable than draft picks IMO. Just not sure if it can be done with the cap issues it would cause.

 

[Marqui]

This would be ideal if JG continues looking like he did last night. I just don't know how they would do it. Because having a true franchise QB to step in when Brady is ready to hang em up, is far more valuable than draft picks IMO. Just not sure if it can be done with the cap issues it would cause.

It won't cause any cap issues because there is 0 chance Garoppolo will resign in NE to sit back on the bench for any time.

 

[Brady6]

There is zero chance Garoppolo with a sample size of 4 games nets a 1st round pick.

If he plays at an elite level for a full slate of 16+ games and you find a ridiculous GM then maybe. But I don't think any of us want to see that scenario come into fruition.

Yeah because Sam Bradford has done that.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I've never suggested trading Brady. Why does it have to be either/or? People figure it's a foregone conclusion the Patriots can't afford to keep both players. They might have to overspend on the position a year or two to keep both of them, but in the long run it would be worth it.

They can't afford forty million a year at QB. I am in the camp that Brady has shown no sign of deterioration and is in fact getting better, I think he is four to five years from retirement and they can't expect Garrapolo to sit for six to seven years before getting a shot at the starting job. Keep him this season unless someone offers two firsts, trade him in the spring if the offer is good enough, hold on to him until he is a free agent and take the comp pick if it isn't.

 

[mosi's man]

I've never understood why a team is willing to pay a king's ransom for someone who has never set foot on an NFL field but is unwilling to give up capital for a player like Garappolo who has shown promise in the league, but it works that way. If he continues to play well, Jimmy will net the Pats less than they deserve (think what the Rams gave up for Goff as a comparison). If they get a high second for him that would be great.

The timing and the promise of Brissett makes moving JG the right move. Brady doesn't appear to be done, but two years from now Brissett should be ready to take the reins if he continues to develop.

 

[Brady6]

The Browns also have the benefit of having a bunch of draft picks after trading #2 to the Eagles. They could make a very compelling offer for Garoppolo and still have plenty of other picks to improve the rest of the roster.

Let's enter into an imaginary land for a minute. It is the end of week 4 and the Browns call up and offer you their 1st round pick and Joe Thomas for Garoppolo, would you make that trade?

 

[Tunescribe]

I assume it has to be either/or because it's not just about what the Patriots can afford, and it's not just the Patriots' decision.

If Jimmy Garoppolo plays well in these four games, he WILL have starting opportunities in the NFL when he becomes a free agent. I can't believe that any cash the Patriots offer him to sit on the bench could compete with that. He was beside himself with joy to finally be playing football last night.

Of course you're right if Garoppolo's sole motivation is to cash in big and is willing to play anywhere. But the fact is he has one more year (2017) under contract, and I just don't see Brady playing at an elite level for three more seasons after this one. It simply could come down to finding a way to afford keeping them both for one year in 2018 and hand things over to Garoppolo in 2019.

 

[Brady6]

It just takes 1 team to overpay. Teams in need of franchise QB

Jets
Bills
Browns
Saints
Redskins
49ers
Bears

Saints would make sense cos Brees' contract is up after next year and Payton and BB could do a deal to keep him away from the AFC. I could see Jimmy running chip Kelly's offense too.

I think Cousins is a franchise QB.

 

[pazrul72]

The return on a trade would be draft picks, and even first-round picks are a roll of the dice. I think the important question is the one bolded above: he might take a bit less to extend with the Patriots knowing it's a quality program he's familiar with in which he will be groomed as Brady's successor. Like I said, the Patriots might have to overspend on the QB position for a year or two but it just might be worth the sacrifice if Garoppolo is as good as I think he might be.

It's a roll of the dice alright but on first round picks Bill has a habit of tossing 7's so in my mind worth the gamble. Of course the familiar is comfortable and being with a winning organization is worth something, but 5-10 million dollars a year? My read on Jimmy is he is just like Brady in being highly competitive and wants to be the man. Could I be wrong? Sure I don't read minds and have no real clue where his heart lies but personally I would think less of him if he said ok I can sit after I am ready. I am all over sitting every QB for a year or two to learn, even a number one overall, but after that they need to be a leader, that guy everyone in the huddle looks up to. Jimmy is not a back up anymore, he is ready to be a starter.

The bigger question to me is who do you let go to keep Jimmy if he is even willing to negotiate? Yeah the pats have 70 mil in room next year but that goes real quick when High is probably 8-9/year, Collins 10-12/year, Butler 10-12/year, and Sheard 6-8/year. Would you keep Jimmy over any of those plus a first round pick, maybe more if they find a desperate enough team? I wouldn't.

 

[scout]

I think Jimmy's worth will be determined almost entirely by his on-field performance, with little to no regard for where he was originally drafted or the 'studying under Brady/Belichick' factor. Cassel/Hoyer/Mallett have proved that isn't exactly a magic bullet.

The "he was worth X before three years of grooming, so he must be worth more than X now" reasoning fails to take cost control into account. Part of a player's value when drafted if that you have him locked up for four years to evaluate him and get cheap production out of him. Conversely, anyone going into the last year of his contract is going to be worth less because that's no longer the case. Any team trading for him is paying for him twice: in the draft capital they give up, and then again in the long-term extension they give him. That's why Matt Cassel wasn't able to fetch a first after 2008.

That said, I could definitely see Garoppolo being worth a 1st if next year's QB trade/FA market is in line with this past offseason's. 3 more starts like the last one and it becomes pretty easy to argue he's worth as much as Osweiler and Bradford.

My dream scenario is that we get exactly what the Eagles got for Bradford: a 1st and a 4th. Also, coincidentally, exactly what Goodell stole from us for Deflategate. At that point, the narrative becomes clear: by suspending Brady, Goodell forced the Patriots to start Garoppolo for 4 games, giving him the audition reel which enabled the Patriots to recoup the draft picks that he took away. Add in going 3-1 or 4-0 in Brady's absence, and the net on-field effect of Deflategate becomes literally nothing.

In addition, the picks will be selected well before the Patriots would have chosen them.