JG trade story: Patriots tried

[dafoe2016]

No, you don't get it man. Cleveland whiffing on and failing to develop 7 different quarterbacks this decade somehow means we're statistically unlikely to draft and develop another good quarterback.

No, you don't get it man. I never even mentioned Cleveland. Your argument would make sense only if they were the exception. They aren't. They are the rule. Most teams struggle for years, or even decades to find a decent QB. There is no reason to think that the Patriots are somehow immune to that. It is essentially pure luck. I'm not sure you understand the law of averages.

 

[captain stone]

All I know is that if Brady were to be lost, I could at least rationalize hope with Garoppolo; with Hoyer, there is no hope whatsoever.

 

[Bradyking12]

All I know is that if Brady were to be lost, I could at least rationalize hope with Garoppolo; with Hoyer, there is no hope whatsoever.

We could trade for Matt Cassel

 

[Kdo5]

All I know is that if Brady were to be lost, I could at least rationalize hope with Garoppolo; with Hoyer, there is no hope whatsoever.

Would it have mattered? I think Brady is the only QB capable to getting this team to the Super Bowl. Very banged up, missing key players. Doubt there was any hope with JG or anyone really.

 

[Mack Herron]

Feels like a keeper got away.

 

[Bill Lee]

No, you don't get it man. I never even mentioned Cleveland. Your argument would make sense only if they were the exception. They aren't. They are the rule. Most teams struggle for years, or even decades to find a decent QB. There is no reason to think that the Patriots are somehow immune to that. It is essentially pure luck. I'm not sure you understand the law of averages.

I think you've broken the irony meter.

Wikipedia ( Law of averages - Wikipedia ) tells us:

The law of averages is the law that a particular outcome or event is inevitable or certain simply because it is statistically possible.[1][2] Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently (e.g. believing that because three consecutive coin flips yielded heads, the next coin flip must be virtually guaranteed to be tails).

And:

As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur.[3] Typical applications also generally assume no bias in the underlying probability distribution, which is frequently at odds with the empirical evidence.[4]

The last sentence is operative -- the probability distribution is indeed biased, because not everyone is equal at evaluating talent. Picking quarterbacks is not flipping coins.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

God bless him in SF unless we’re playing them

 

[SEA_Pat]

The entire AFC East has had 20 years to come up with a decent QB. How's that worked out? The highlights, off the top of my head, are Duante Culpepper, Vinnie Testaverde and Chad Pennington. People act like finding an above average, or average QB, is a given. It is anything but. They odds are heavily stacked against it.

Absolutely correct. On the other hand, just like the Steelers seem to have an ability to out-scout other teams with respect to Wide Receivers, we seem to have an ability to identify actual NFL QBs that other teams do not. How many ex-backups of ours have managed to get picked up and play as starters on other teams? How many highly prized and more highly drafted guys came before Jacoby and Jimmy and how many of them are still starters in this league?

So I'm okay with Brady and whatever comes next. Sure, would have been nice to keep Jimmy G as the heir apparent, but he wasn't going to go with that, so it's onto Brian Hoyer and the Playoffs.

 

[Froob]

This is a great listen with Lombardi and Simmons who have some inside info

The Ringer NFL Show by The Ringer on Apple Podcasts

 

[RayClay]

They could have given him what he wanted. They could have cut or traded Brady
at he end of the year. Odds are, he doesn't have more than 2-3 more good years left. It's not unreasonable, if you honestly believe that JAG can be a top ten QB in the league for the next 10 years, to keep him instead of a 40 year old player who will be 41 years old when next season rolls around.

Granted, this is the greatest QB of all time, but when has Bill ever kept an older player in favor of a young talented player? This goes against everything we know about the way he operates. Maybe he's just not that high on JG. He traded a few years (at best) of a GOAT for 10 years of a QB who has a chance to be very good. Bill played it safe. I have zero issue with this. But let's not pretend that he had no choice. He did.

Top ten qb for ten years? Based on what? Cassel should have made the playoffs and look how he regressed. Giving Hoyer credit for a decent stretch as a starter, that's 6 NFL starters groomed by the Pats?

There's only one GOAT and he's here and looks healthy and better than he did 5 or so years ago. That's money in the bank. Go buy some penny stocks.

 

[lancerman]

Top ten qb for ten years? Based on what? Cassel should have made the playoffs and look how he regressed. Giving Hoyer credit for a decent stretch as a starter, that's 6 NFL starters groomed by the Pats?

There's only one GOAT and he's here and looks healthy and better than he did 5 or so years ago. That's money in the bank. Go buy some penny stocks.

Let's say Brady has 2-3 quality years left in him. At his pace that's almost a gauranteed Super Bowl appearance (he's never went 3 full seasons of play without a Super Bowl appearance).

Let's say Jimmy is a top 10 QB in the league. That means maybe one Super Bowl appearance over his career.

 

[Love The Drake]

Let's say Brady has 2-3 quality years left in him. At his pace that's almost a gauranteed Super Bowl appearance (he's never went 3 full seasons of play without a Super Bowl appearance).

Let's say Jimmy is a top 10 QB in the league. That means maybe one Super Bowl appearance over his career.

Im going to start looking at college QBs something I didnt think id have to do for 10 years.
My question is what does Mcdaniels think about this alot less likely he would take the job as head man in time if there is no franchise QB in place.

 

[lancerman]

An extreme analogy, would be what the Colts did when they drafted Luck. For arguments sake, imagine if the Colts traded Luck and got a package similar/better than what Washington gave up, but kept Manning. Quite possibly the Colts make it to 2 more super bowls with Manning as the QB.

I would bet most Colts fans would in a heartbeat have that scenario, than what Luck has given them so far, and what Luck may or may not give them in the next many years.

As a Pats fan, 1-2-3 more years of Brady regardless of results is 'better' than the potential of JG. In 20 years, if JG has won a few super bowls, then I will eat my words and regret the trade. Personally I have my doubts that he even wins 1 as that would be an accomplishment in itself.

What Brady has done, consistently, regardless of adversity can never be replicated. 3 years of Brady is far superior to most QB's careers.

This is exactly right. Peyton Manning played 4 more years after his injury. If the Colts knew that he would have his arguable best statistical season and MVP, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and a Super Bowl win.... they'd take that. Look at what Luck did in 7 years. He went to A AFCCG and got slaughtered. He got injured (guess who else showed signs he might not be that durable).

The Colts would have never taken Luck over Manning if they thought they'd get a quality Manning back for just 4 more years.

Here's the difference.

Brady: is healthy right now and he isn't coming off an uncertain injury, unlike Manning.

Garoppolo: is not the no brainer prospect Luck was and quite frankly is likely to not even be better than what Luck has been.

The next 2-3 years of Brady could see Brady pushing some of his playoff records out of reach for eternity, another MVP, 2-3 AFCCG's and a high probability at Super Bowl appearance or win.

Garoppolo could be in the top 5% franchise QB's in this league and he might be lucky to do all that over 10. He'd be lucky to do half of what Brady has done over the last 6 seasons.

 

[lancerman]

Im going to start looking at college QBs something I didnt think id have to do for 10 years.
My question is what does Mcdaniels think about this alot less likely he would take the job as head man in time if there is no franchise QB in place.

Why? He'd get to pick his own QB and not the guy Belichick picked. He'd still get Kraft who would trust him more than any other owner in the league. He'd get what was ever left over from Belichick.

He's going to pass on that for some trash franchise that was just forced to fire their head coach?

 

[Oswlek]

Dorsett is more valuable to this team than Brissett (2017 and 2018).

Pick 32-35 is more valuable than 6 months of JAG.

I prefer Hoyer as a backup to both Brissett and JAG. My hope is that Hoyer is signed before our next practice through at least 2018, preferably though 2020.

I agree with everything except the last bit. My ideal scenario is Hoyer gets signed to a cheap two year deal; the remainder of this year and then one more to ease the development of whoever get drafted next April.

Doubt it, I think mid teir is his ceiling, BB wouldn't have traded him if he knew he would be one of the best QBs in the league

Quite literally all the evidence suggests otherwise. In fact, this trade was so difficult specifically because of how highly NE valued Jimmy.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

This is a great listen with Lombardi and Simmons who have some inside info

The Ringer NFL Show by The Ringer on Apple Podcasts

Don't have time to listen to podcasts. What were the highlights?

 

[lancerman]

Some of you guys have literally no context.

1. Brady 5 Super Bowls, 7 appearances, 11 AFCCG's
2. Montana 4 Super Bowls, 4 appearances 7 NFCCG's
3. Elway 2 Super Bowls, 5 appearances, 6 AFCCG's
4. Bradshaw 4 Super Bowls, 4 appearances, 6 AFCCG's
5. Staubach 2 Super Bowls, 4 appearances, 6 NFCCG's
6. Manning 2 Super Bowls, 4 appearances, 5 AFCCG's
7. Bret Favre 1 Super Bowl, 2 appearances, 5 NFCCG's
8. Troy Aikman 3 Super Bowls, 3 appearances, 4 NFCCG's
9. Roethlisberger 2 Super Bowls, 3 appearances, 4 AFCCG's
10. Steve Young 1 Super Bowl, 1 appearances, 4 NFCCG's

That's the top 10 in regards to Super Bowl wins, Super Bowl appearances, and conference title game appearances.

After that you are talking about a SMALL handful of guys that went to one or two conference title games and maybe one a Super Bowl (or in Eli's case 2). A guy like Flacco who went to 3 and only went to and one one Super Bowl. A Kurt Warner who went to two NFCCG's and 2 Super Bowls and got one.

LOOK AT BRADY'S PACE. Look how far ahead he is compared to everyone else. How good do you think Jimmy is going to be. If you don't think he is at a minimum going to be as good as Montana, Elway, Bradshaw, Staubach or Manning or going to be in a Troy Aikman situation then 10 years of him is not worth a potential 2-3 or godwilling 4-5 years of what a quality Brady is likely to accomplish. Look at the league. Brady's only missed the AFCCG 4 times in full seasons played. 3 of his 4 losses in that game came against Peyton Manning who retired. The lone other time came against a Raven team that had our number that isn't even good anymore. We basically got to the point where a Brady led Patriots just won by attrition.

 

[long distance]

Don't have time to listen to podcasts. What were the highlights?

i come from team building . and this is like a pillar comes down

i think it was hard for him /BB/ . just look at his press conference . i don't think that this is something he really wanted

no conspiracy - just shocking knowing how organized and future oriented they are would make this deal

he put the kid in the greatest spot . he took care of him (Bill loves Shanahans)

this is not the best business decision long term but is best short term

the time to pick a QB is when you don't need one, that's when we picked Garoppolo

 

[Trycked]

The last Italian descent QB that the 49ers picked over TB ended up farming goats. Now, they've picked another Italian descent QB who waited for the goat. Life comes full circle.

 

[Froob]

Don't have time to listen to podcasts. What were the highlights?

Browns didn’t offer the 13th pick or any first round pick.

Browns front office is difficult to work with.

It was going to be incredibly difficult to re-sign Jimmy since Brady has the same agent and it’d be a conflict of interest.

Simmons thinks maybe BB promised Don Yee that they’d wait to see if Brady is still the same guy and then deal Jimmy at the deadline.

Expect Hoyer on a two year deal, he’d have been part of the trade but his contract guarantees were complicated.