The Pats *should* go 4-0 and finish 13-3. But I could see them dropping one of these last four and finishing at 12-4.
Baltimore (9-3): vs Ind, at SD, vs Cle, at Cin - I think they go 3-1. That would give them the conference tiebreaker over New England.
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My prediction:
#1 Baltimore (12-4)
#2 New England (12-4) - loses the tiebreaker to Bal
#3 Houston (11-5 or 12-4) - loses the tiebreaker to NE
#4 Denver (9-7)
#5 Pittsburgh (12-4) - loses the tiebreaker to Bal
#6 NYJ (10-6) - somehow gets in
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I think your math's wrong re BAL vs. NYP for the Conference tiebreaker.
Both the Pats (BUF and PIT) and Ravens (JAK and TEN) already have two conference losses.
All of Baltimore's remaining opponents are AFC teams (IND, SD, CLE, CIN); so, if "they go 3--1," that would give them a 12--4 record with three conference losses.
The Pats face three AFC teams (DEN, MIA, BUF) and one NFC team (WAS). So, if the Pats end up "dropping one of these last four," it would depend on where the loss was. Were they to lose to the 'skins and run the table against the AFC teams, they would end up 12--4, but with only two conference losses they would own the tiebreaker; if the loss came against an AFC team (in this case the Broncos in Denver, because I'd bet the farm that they won't lose at home to either BUF or MIA), they would be tied with Baltimore for this tiebreaker.
The next tiebreaker would be "Best Win-Lost-Tie percentage in common games, minimum of four," which Baltimore would win if they defeat both IND and SDC down the stretch (they would be 5--0 vs. PIT, NYJ, PIT, IND, SD) and the Pats would be 4--1 against the same four teams). If a 12--4 Ravens team had one of its remaining losses against either IND or SD, they would go to the next tiebreaker, SOV, which I just don't have time to calculate at this point.
The one scenario you don't consider is Houston running the table, beating CIN, CAR, IND and TEN and ending up 13--3. But my head already hurts and I can't spend any more time on this.
The bottom line is what I always say at this time of year when we all start these silly assessments more than a week or two from the end of the season.
"Win this week. Then worry about the next game and let the stuff we can't control take care of itself."
