It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[treeclimber]

Nope, and I have made that argument many times here. That doesn't, however, mean that I should support their position. Most of the time i support their position because they are generally reasonable but this isn't one of those times. Their treatment of Welker is flat out the most cynical thing I have ever seen them do. Welker gave everything he had and not only produced what anyone could have expected but outperformed all of his peers, and for the Patriots to apply a tag with no intention of making him any realistic market deal is a rotten thing to do. They didn't have to give him Calvin Johnson's money but they also didn't have to offer him a small fraction of it, any realistic offer most likely would have gotten it done but they decided to play as hardassed as they possibly could have. I think it is bullsh.t and it will come back to bite them in the @ss both on the field when he's gone and when Brady's trying to get his next deal done. Pretty rare for me to rip this team but this is really disgraceful. Sucks they went this route.

Do you want to try waiting until the next few seasons play out before you rip a team on the decision? Good lord people. It may be one of the best decisions the Patriots ever make when it's all said and done. I have a strong feeling it will be. Locking up a 30+ year old Welker for a truck load of money and an extended period of time is not the answer. Don't let your love for a player get in the way of a sound decision. This isn't cynical, it's smart.

 

[RayClay]

Wow, calling a person with a different opinion than yours a troll. Shocking.

Nah, I'm calling a poster with only five posts, all in a Welker thread, the same troll who only posted in Welker threads.

 

[treeclimber]

Nah, I'm calling a poster with only five posts, all in a Welker thread, the same troll who only posted in Welker threads.

Maybe one day I can get up to 15,000 like you! And I apologize that my opinion offends you.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Nope, and I have made that argument many times here. That doesn't, however, mean that I should support their position. Most of the time i support their position because they are generally reasonable but this isn't one of those times. Their treatment of Welker is flat out the most cynical thing I have ever seen them do. Welker gave everything he had and not only produced what anyone could have expected but outperformed all of his peers, and for the Patriots to apply a tag with no intention of making him any realistic market deal is a rotten thing to do. They didn't have to give him Calvin Johnson's money but they also didn't have to offer him a small fraction of it, any realistic offer most likely would have gotten it done but they decided to play as hardassed as they possibly could have. I think it is bullsh.t and it will come back to bite them in the @ss both on the field when he's gone and when Brady's trying to get his next deal done. Pretty rare for me to rip this team but this is really disgraceful. Sucks they went this route.

Cynical? Yes, but that doesn't mean wrong. If they're right, and Welker isn't worth the contract that he wants, then I'd hate to see them give him the contract anyway for sentiment's sake. I fear that they may be wrong in their evaluation, but that's a different question entirely.

The Patriots' front office is extremely cold, calculating, and unsentimental. This is a good thing, as most of the time they're ultimately proven right in their evaluations of players. This has been pretty obvious since the day Belichick got here. Why does it seem like so many of you are just now discovering this fact?

 

[patfanken]

Frankly there's too much emotion on both sides of this issue.

1. There is NO need to diminish Welker's accomplishments with the Pats by continually bringing up "the drop". First of all, while it was a ball Welker usually catches, it was also a ball Brady throws more accurately. Secondly there were a dozen OTHER plays that could have also turned that ball game....and we all know what they were, from the opening safety to 3 fumbles that weren't recovered, to the penalty on the one that was, etc, etc. To single out Welker is not only cynical and unfair, its just not accurate.

Welker has been, without question the league's finest slot receiver and one of the most productive in the league over the last 5 years. Even if you DON'T think that Welker is worth the money he was asking for, you CANNOT ignore what he's done.

2. On the other hand, you cannot ignore that one of the best Front Offices put a certain value on Welker, and wasn't willing to budge. Can we really argue with THEIR record of success. Think about it. With the exception of Brady, we have now completely turned over the super bowl teams, and never had to deal with LESS than a double digit win regular season, went to the superbowl with a flawed team, and according to Football Outsiders, have the best and largest core of under 25 talent. I don't think this describes the FO that DI would like to believe we have.

That's not to say they don't make mistakes. Of course they do, and this just might be one. Time will tell, and nothing WE say can hasten the result.

3. The Pats did the smart thing regardless of how successful Welker is this season. They had an option to pay him in the neighborhood of $21MM over 2 years and they passed, not willing to take the risk of tying up that kind of money on a player of Welker's size and age.

Welker on the other hand isn't really harmed.....as long as he produces. If he has his usual production of 100+ catches and 1200+ yds. He'll GET his $21MM and the Pats will have taken a year's worth of risk out of the equation.

Welker has made it clear that he wants to stay here. The Pats have made it clear they want to deal with him on a year to year basis. IF he produces he can get paid as the best slot guy in the league, only its going to be on a year to year basis. And what is wrong with that.

He can probably stay with the Pats as long as he wants. Its just that the Pats aren't willing to commit to paying him NOW for his potential production in the future. If his role or skills diminish the Pats want to be in the position to pay him appropriately for his production year to year. It was simply the smart thing to do for a player of Welker's size and age.

Another thing to consider, is the congregant age of the Pats WRs. Going forward we really need to get younger and bigger there. While it would be sad to see Welker go, it would also open up a slot for another younger WR to step in either through the draft or FA.

Remember if even Welker leaves in 2013, (and that's far from a sure thing), its NOT a 2006 deja vu. Brady would STILL have 3 Elite receivers in Lloyd, Hernandez and Gronk as just a start, which is already significantly better than most NFL teams.

 

[ausbacker]

Yep, they are coming out of the woodwork.

It's amusing when the trolls come in pretending not to be trolls whilst suspiciously posting like trolls. Troll troll troll.

If Welker isn't extended in 2013 the very first place I'd have my agent knocking on the door is Denver with Peyton Manning.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

They reportedly offered him a contract and there were discussions about a third year. That's my 2-3 year. If you want a longer contract at a certain age, you adjust the other numbers. If he didn't get a better contract than offered before, then that was essentially the offer, if it indeed was.

If your going to act as if he's being crucified, i can't help you, I can just go by reporters comments that they were negotiating this year and didn't come to agreement.

I guess people's idea of negotiating is we have to give whatever the player wants for as long as he wants if it's a player we like. I don't believe any of the players or there agents were misled into thinking that was the negotiating style of this team when they came to talk contract..

I think most people think negotiation means genuine back and forth discussion and exchange of proposals and counter proposals and some level of compromise on both sides. I wish people would stop injecting the red herring crap about giving the player whatever he wants.

According to guys like Bedard, they haven't negotiated since the tag was placed. That was the day Wes discovered their previous offer had been lowered. There was lots of speculation that they must be talking to some extent. But Bedard found out that the only time they did was in passing when Dunn was dealing with rookies and other business at Gillette. And the message remained offer unchanged. They talked this week about what a 3rd year might look like, but the talk never led to an offer. They talked today, but apparently not for long. Wes did say they were trying and hoping, but apparently that was mostly one sided, naive and wishful thinking on his part. The gulf basically remained the same from the time he was tagged until 4PM today, roughly $6M in guaranteed money. The only way to accommodate that was to talk about a third year, which is less than I would have anticipated Welker even settling for, and the team obviously never budged on offering that. Short of it there was no way to make the numbers work more favorably against the cap. $21 guaranteed divided by 2 is the same as two tags. $21 guaranteed divided by 3 is millions cheaper against the cap. But for reasons that defy logic, they simply wanted nothing to do with him past 2013 and they weren't even willing to guarantee him more than $6-7M per over 2 years in the interim except on a one year $9.5M deal.

I think it's so hard for some folks to correlate their situation to Welker's. After all, few among us will make $9.5M over the span of a 45-50 year career. Welker has 10-12 years at best in his career. In the last 5 years he's caught more balls than any WR in the league. Say you were the most successful but increasingly underpaid salesman in your industry for the last decade and your boss approached you at 55 and said Ray, I just have a gut feeling you're going to tank in the next year or two, so here's the deal. How about I finally pay you what you're worth - but just for this year because I believe there is a chance you won't be worth a hill of beans shortly thereafter. Although if you still want to work here for another 4-5 years you can and I'll cover your mileage and provide a free lunch for as long as you do. Then I'm retiring you.

You're first inclination would probably be to tell him to shove his offer where the sun don't shine because you know even at 55 with your resume you can get a job somewhere else paying a lot more than this jerk is offering. Only it turns out your union signed a piece of paper that says he can retain you on his terms for another 8 years whether you like it or not. And your option is to do a bang up job so that someone may still interested in hiring you at all at 63. Or just go home.

That's the deal they offered Welker. Kraft said he wanted him to retire a Patriot, apparently in two years after making less than market value. They toyed with the idea of letting him stay on for a third year, but only if they didn't have to pay him to.

I guess if Welker is out of the league at 33 they're not just geniuses, they're clairvoyant. Although if he's still putting up 90-100+ reception seasons somewhere, they are going to look like their genius is slipping. Especially if their offensive production declines. Remember, all the established WR's on the roster are over 30 already too. And their track record for developing drafted WR talent is sketchy to put it mildly.

This is the same crap they pulled with Vinatieri. Tagged him once and then offered him a one year fully guaranteed deal they said they would continue to as long as he earned it. I don't think Adam has lived to regret his decision. In fact he's been to as many superbowls since as they have, only he has a 4th ring they don't. And banked about $20M more already than he'd have ever seen here. Even after spending a year on IR in 2009, they were loyal to him. Still with the Colts and making $2.7M this year and signed through 2014. Played here for 10 years and was the epitome of the clutch money kicker. He misses either of those kicks in the Snowbowl and Brady and Belichick might not still be here.

 

[Claremonster]

Welker is more than just a "slot receiver" and you do him and yourself a great injustice by saying it. Welker lines up all over the place. He lined up as the X,Y, and Z receiver. Yes, he does his best work over the middle, but he also draws double teams on a regular basis and STILL puts up 110+ receptions a year.

People thinking that Welker is only a product of the Patriots are ignoring what Welker did despite the 3 different QBs he had in Miami prior to his joining the Pats. If you think that Welker will magically become only a 50 reception guy because he won't have Brady, then you are kidding yourself. Welker will be a solid #2 receiver on most teams.

He might be tagged for another year or two like A.Samuel was. Might be his last year. Might not.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Frankly there's too much emotion on both sides of this issue.

1. There is NO need to diminish Welker's accomplishments with the Pats by continually bringing up "the drop". First of all, while it was a ball Welker usually catches, it was also a ball Brady throws more accurately. Secondly there were a dozen OTHER plays that could have also turned that ball game....and we all know what they were, from the opening safety to 3 fumbles that weren't recovered, to the penalty on the one that was, etc, etc. To single out Welker is not only cynical and unfair, its just not accurate.

Welker has been, without question the league's finest slot receiver and one of the most productive in the league over the last 5 years. Even if you DON'T think that Welker is worth the money he was asking for, you CANNOT ignore what he's done.

2. On the other hand, you cannot ignore that one of the best Front Offices put a certain value on Welker, and wasn't willing to budge. Can we really argue with THEIR record of success. Think about it. With the exception of Brady, we have now completely turned over the super bowl teams, and never had to deal with LESS than a double digit win regular season, went to the superbowl with a flawed team, and according to Football Outsiders, have the best and largest core of under 25 talent. I don't think this describes the FO that DI would like to believe we have.

That's not to say they don't make mistakes. Of course they do, and this just might be one. Time will tell, and nothing WE say can hasten the result.

3. The Pats did the smart thing regardless of how successful Welker is this season. They had an option to pay him in the neighborhood of $21MM over 2 years and they passed, not willing to take the risk of tying up that kind of money on a player of Welker's size and age.

Welker on the other hand isn't really harmed.....as long as he produces. If he has his usual production of 100+ catches and 1200+ yds. He'll GET his $21MM and the Pats will have taken a year's worth of risk out of the equation.

Welker has made it clear that he wants to stay here. The Pats have made it clear they want to deal with him on a year to year basis. IF he produces he can get paid as the best slot guy in the league, only its going to be on a year to year basis. And what is wrong with that.

He can probably stay with the Pats as long as he wants. Its just that the Pats aren't willing to commit to paying him NOW for his potential production in the future. If his role or skills diminish the Pats want to be in the position to pay him appropriately for his production year to year. It was simply the smart thing to do for a player of Welker's size and age.

Another thing to consider, is the congregant age of the Pats WRs. Going forward we really need to get younger and bigger there. While it would be sad to see Welker go, it would also open up a slot for another younger WR to step in either through the draft or FA.

Remember if even Welker leaves in 2013, (and that's far from a sure thing), its NOT a 2006 deja vu. Brady would STILL have 3 Elite receivers in Lloyd, Hernandez and Gronk as just a start, which is already significantly better than most NFL teams.

FWIW, Lloyd hasn't caught a pass here yet and he'll also be the dreaded 32 in 2013... And Hernandez could be staging a holdout by then given the experience Dunn has just had with this FO or planning his case for the WR franchise tag in 2014... One thing for sure is he won't be signing one of those optional totally team friendly backloaded deals Rosenhaus and the FO just concocted for Gronk where they can cut him in or after 2015 and and he's out $40M of his $54M highest paid TE ever deal. And need I remind you of their track record with replacing lost critical WR's via the draft or FA?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He might be tagged for another year or two like A.Samuel was. Might be his last year. Might not.

Asante was only tagged once...and even that was a mistake.

 

[BradyFTW!]

FWIW, Lloyd hasn't caught a pass here yet and he'll also be the dreaded 32 in 2013... And Hernandez could be staging a holdout by then given the experience Dunn has just had with this FO or planning his case for the WR franchise tag in 2014... One thing for sure is he won't be signing one of those optional totally team friendly backloaded deals Rosenhaus and the FO just concocted for Gronk where they can cut him in or after 2015 and and he's out $40M of his $54M highest paid TE ever deal. And need I remind you of their track record with replacing lost critical WR's via the draft or FA?

If the Patriots offer a deal that's good for Hernandez, I doubt that he'll turn it down because his agent is still butthurt over what happened with Welker. People have made that case every time the Patriots have let a veteran go, and somehow it never comes to fruition. Even the Tom Condon vendetta couldn't keep Brandon Lloyd out of Foxborough.

As for their track record with replacing lost critical WRs... it's not that bad. Gaffney and Lloyd came as FAs, Moss and Welker via draft-day trades, and Hernandez has succeeded as a draft pick in a hybrid role. OTOH, they've whiffed on a couple of mid-round picks and one mid-grade trade. In short, it's not nearly as bad as you seem to be trying to indicate that it is.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

More reasons why they won't. He'll be less likely to make the leverage miscalculation he did this season because he will have another $9.5M banked. He really didn't have a choice this season given his age and what they paid him for the last 5 seasons. They could do a tag and trade, but he has to sign the tag to facilitate that and Bill claims to be a stickler for the rule that says you can't talk trade for an unsigned player and so the trust factor could be blown there. And if they tag him to play him he could hold out right through camp and even into the season at no penalty cost to him beyond lost paychecks. With Brady carrying a $22M cap hit...not gonna fly. And after 2013 they would get no comp pick for him because of the ten year rule. Even if he put up great numbers for them in 2013 and managed to sign a susbstantial deal elsewhere.

Unless they changed the rule, the 10-year rule doesn't say you can't get a comp pick, merely that you can't get one higher than a fifth-rounder.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This is the same crap they pulled with Vinatieri. Tagged him once and then offered him a one year fully guaranteed deal they said they would continue to as long as he earned it. I don't think Adam has lived to regret his decision. In fact he's been to as many superbowls since as they have, only he has a 4th ring they don't. And banked about $20M more already than he'd have ever seen here. Even after spending a year on IR in 2009, they were loyal to him. Still with the Colts and making $2.7M this year and signed through 2014. Played here for 10 years and was the epitome of the clutch money kicker. He misses either of those kicks in the Snowbowl and Brady and Belichick might not still be here.

The only problem with this analysis is that Vinatieri's skills were starting to erode at that point. Heck, to keep Vinatieri, the Colts have to use another roster spot on a kickoff specialist, and they play most of their games indoors.

In the grand scheme of things, while I would have loved to see Vinatieri retire a Patriot, I also doubt he would have been able to keep his job in Foxboro more than a couple of years past 2006.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Welker has made it clear that he wants to stay here. The Pats have made it clear they want to deal with him on a year to year basis. IF he produces he can get paid as the best slot guy in the league, only its going to be on a year to year basis. And what is wrong with that.

What's wrong is that the only way to keep him from walking is to use the franchise tag, and the third time they do that, he gets QB money.

 

[RayClay]

Maybe one day I can get up to 15,000 like you! And I apologize that my opinion offends you.

I'm sorry, welcome to the site. What brings you here today, are you a new fan?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Again, you're tanking your own argument. Welker has already bounced back from a hideous knee injury.

WW was 28 or 29 when he suffered the knee injury and yes, he most certainly had a career year. My argument is 32 or later WRs historically start to break down.

He did so to have a career year and play a bigger part than anybody on the offense in helping Brady accomplish the same.

I'd argue that Gronk had just as big of a share of the offensive load and production.

The minute that this team stops paying its players what they damn well earned based on some fear mongering phantom injury that said player could occur is the minute that this franchise fails.

They've been pretty damn good at it for 13 years, Kontra.

So far, my arguments are substantiated. They are fact based. Your arguments are based on hypothetical situations which have not occurred and may never occur. At this time, you should step back and look at the differences, Robert.

No. I'll keep arguing, thanks.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Who shut him down?

You are the one implying he can't be stopped. There are several games where WW was contained.

Wes Welker Career Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

That simply isnt true unless he is actually getting less first downs. If its 3rd and 4 and he gets 5, 6,12, or 40 he still gets the first down.
That is why it makes no sesne. I completely acknowledge your argument, which is trying to replace fact (Welker getting first downs) with conjecture (if his ypc is low he wouldn't get as many first downs). You seem to not recognize an argument that centers on a possibility is flawed when the facts show that possiblity didnt occur.

I acknowledge your counter argument as well. On a per instance basis you are right. I'm going by 7 playoff games where he averages the same number of catches as he does during the regular season, but less YPC and less 1st downs a game...In my mind, the did occur based on the numbers.

I have certainly been known to be, and perhaps I am here, if you consider expecting your conclusion to be supported by facts instead of conjecture where facts exist is stubborn. I would consider that a complement in that case.

I'm stubborn too.

I see the trend and it tells me something irrefutable. Not sure what else I can say....

 

[supafly]

Wow..there certainly seems to be an awful lot of bad vibes and arguments in regards to this particular thread; although anyone could certainly understand the heated opinions from both sides.

I too am a bit bummed out that a longer term deal didn't get done, but we've seen some of this before and unfortunately have to trust the front office--albeit blindly.

No one really what they are thinking. I would agree that the initial reaction would be that they aren't expecting to tag him again next season..but we don't know that for sure.

If Welker does have a year where he proves to live up to his reputation and they decide to spend 11 million to tag him next season, then it would basically be what he wanted the whole time (2 yrs, 21 million, all guaranteed). It's quite possible that the front office simply wanted to have the ability to re-assess the situation at the end of this upcoming season before agreeing to that, thus giving him the 2 year deal after all.

As strange and unlikely as it would seem, no one knows what Belichick's feelings on it are. The "wait and see" approach is obviously what the Pats wanted to do here, or else they likely could have raised their offer up to 18-19 or so and he may have very well taken it.

As far as Brady's 22 million dollar cap hit next season, isn't a restructure/extension almost a guarantee at this point anyway? I would expect that number to come down a bit for sure.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

...my last post on this topic, time to wrap it up, a deal was not done and I think that is a shame.

Receivers decline after 32??, maybe...but if football was science, Brady would have gone 1st overall, not 199th. NE saw something in Brady that could not be passed over any longer.

I belive WW has those same qualities. He is an athlete, he is a competitor, always wanting to get better, he has the physical skills and I don't give a crap about what the stats say, sometimes to be a good manager and leader, organizations need to modify the formula that got them there.

I think they made a mistake, pure and simple. Anyone who has played team sports knows to win the game add up 60 minutes of play. It is called domination and exercising your will against your opponent. One play does not win or lose a game. WW got roasted for this but his contribution to our team is off the chart, measured in many different ways, and his declininig skillset based on age is an argument I am not willing to accept in this instance.

 

[goheels22002]

...my last post on this topic, time to wrap it up, a deal was not done and I think that is a shame.

Receivers decline after 32??, maybe...but if football was science, Brady would have gone 1st overall, not 199th. NE saw something in Brady that could not be passed over any longer.

I belive WW has those same qualities. He is an athlete, he is a competitor, always wanting to get better, he has the physical skills and I don't give a crap about what the stats say, sometimes to be a good manager and leader, organizations need to modify the formula that got them there.

I think they made a mistake, pure and simple. Anyone who has played team sports knows to win the game add up 60 minutes of play. It is called domination and exercising your will against your opponent. One play does not win or lose a game. WW got roasted for this but his contribution to our team is off the chart, measured in many different ways, and his declininig skillset based on age is an argument I am not willing to accept in this instance.

This is the best thread of the off-season. Long live "It Looks Like No Deal..."

This thread is great because it's about the franchise tag for a guy we actually want around and neither side stepped out and disrespected the other. Best of all, the player deserves the compensation that comes with the tag and will be in uniform on time with lots to play for.

I thought the Pats should have done a three-year deal, but all is not lost here. Not at all. Welker can be tagged again and there was no agreement between the sides not to tag him for 2013 like we saw with Samuel and Mankins. The negotiations next summer will be for a two-year deal which fits the Pats better. Welker's monetary value will be determined by his health and production from the 2012 tagged year, so his value at age 32 and 33 will be easier to assess and fit into the cap. His market value will most likely be less at that age as a slot receiver.

The challenge for the Pats and Welker (with Brady's cap number hitting like an asteroid from space) is that the 2013 cap year is probably the most complicated under the new CBA as it is probably the last of the "flat" cap years (around $121 million per team) before the new broadcast deal kicks in in 2014.

Elsewhere there is a spirited debate about whether the 2014 money shows up in 2014 or 2015, but no matter, the NFL and NFLPA know how much revenue will come in through the new broadcast deal in 2014, so contracts will address the cash-flow issue for younger guys. Welker, Brady and guys in their early- to mid-30s will have to deal with cash-flow realities next summer. I imagine lots of dead money in 2015 - 2016 from the hangover created by 2013.

Training Camp is open to the public in nine days. Hooray.