They won't, because that would make them look like idiots.
Bedard summed that up pretty well too.
Welker would have easily landed a 4 year $32-36M deal with $20M guaranteed on the open market this year. If he continues to perform at near 2011 levels in 2012, he will easily land a 3 year $21-24M deal with $12M-14M guaranteed. That offer won't come from NE any more than it did this year. The only way the geniuses look like geniuses is if he puts up 100+ catches and 1200 yards and 7-8 TD's and they win it all while he tears the other ACL in the 4th quarter of the SB. I for one can't root for that. I hope we win of course, and then I hope Wes gets his big deal and makes them regret it at least once a year for a couple of more years.
I guarantee you there will be a line waiting on him next March if he can get through this season healthy. Pioli will be at the head of it, unless he's lost his job and Matt's by then. Dimetroff will be in line too. Along with several contenders with legit franchise QB's, not to mention the usual desperate housewives.
Remember Ray, all that is guaranteed in any NFL contract is the guaranteed money. They could have signed Welker to a 10 year deal at $9.5M per and it means nothing beyond how much of the deal was guaranteed. He was apparently looking for something in the $20M range on a 3 year deal. 4 would have been better for him and for them for cap management purposes, but that was apparently never even contemplated. Once that deal passes the 2 year mark, you're working for whatever they'll pay you down to veteran minimum or you're traded to siberia or they kick you to the curb.
I always got why they did what they did in the past. Milloy was a club house cancer and not even living up to his own hype let alone salary or cap hit at a time when they were up against the cap because with one ring in hand he was complacent. And he wouldn't work with them to change any of that, which was Belichick's crushing disappointment. Ty was worth his salary but he couldn't add a couple of years on his deal to help them with the cap because his cap # was how he measured himself. Then of course he got hurt... Branch called their bluff brilliantly and financially it paid off for him even though it sucked for him production wise. It killed another shot or two at a ring for us so IMO we got the short end of that deal. Asante had zero core leadership value, was a ballhawke who liked to gamble and really a half year wonder here and he wanted to be paid like a top 3 shutdown corner. I'd have tagged and traded him before 2007 and I don't think it would have changed a thing beyond we might have won another ring or at least had another #1 pick in reserve to add value. Seymour wasn't as vocal as Milloy but he was raised by him as a rookie and had it drilled into him to "get your's". And he was committed to. 3 rings and 3 more years at $12.5M+. I guarantee you he has no regrets beyond he wishes he could have gotten that here. And despite the performance of then 2009-11 defense, they don't regret their decision to trade him for a future #1 either. He wasn't going to be the difference in 2009 and he wasn't going to be here in 2010.
This time i just don't get it. Not given the player and how he's performed here consistently and how hard it is to locate receivers who can play effectively in this system and what he was apparently asking for. He's 31 and coming off a record season after leading the league in receptions since 2007. Brady calls him the heart and soul of this offense. Just makes no sense. Not to mention Brady must be fuming (although he won't admit it). Just so unnecessary. They're $10M under the cap with Welker on the tag and $24M under before any rollover in 2013 with Brady carrying a $22M cap hit...
