Is This The Year the Patriots Trade Up?

[MaineMan]

I think that you also have to look at how badly some teams are going to need the picks that the Pats have. Let's face it, you can't do didly squat in the NFL these days if you don't have a Quaterback. The following teams currently do not have anything close to a NFL caliber QB on their rosters:

Arizona
San Francisco
Minnesota


These teams may not admit it yet, but theey too need a QB:
Carolina
Buffalo
Cleveland
Seattle
Tennessee
Miami
Jacksonville
Oakland


And almost all of them will pick before the Pats do (with the Raider's pick) You have to think that Luck, Locker, Mallett and Newton will all go before #15. So the Pats may not have to trade up as high as you think to land the DE OLB. I think that #32-33 maybe a great target for a team looking to bag Chritian Ponder/Nick Foles/Blaine Gabbert/ Pat Dlevin/ Ricky Stanzi. I could see both Foles and Gabbert sneaking into the first round (becuase of the demand).

Luck - Soph
Newton - Jr
Mallet - Jr
Foles - Jr
Gabbert - Jr

Noting this because, with a new CBA still unsigned, a 2011 lockout (for however long it might last) is still a real possibility. Based on statements made within the past couple days by players union reps, the basic issues haven't even been addressed yet in negotiations.

This has to be weighing heavily on the minds of all junior prospects, including and maybe especially) QBs. Luck has said so publicly.

If these underclassmen decide not to declare - a decision they need to make in the next two weeks (and how quickly do you really think CBA negotiations can progress from where they are now?) - the following are the eligible senior QBs who would be available:

Locker
Ponder
Devlin
Kaepernick
Dalton
Stanzi
Potts
Enderle
TJ Yates
McElroy
Tyrod Taylor
Jerrod Johnson
Ben Chappell
Adam Froman
Mike Hartline
Scott Tolzien

The point being that, given the above somewhat more limited selection of QB talent, how many of those QB-needy NFL teams might (after the first 2-3 prospects are off the board) decide, instead, to draft to their second greatest need (quite possibly D-line) or simply BPA?

I mean, we may believe (or want to believe) that all these great junior prospects will declare after all. We may believe that a new CBA will be signed soon and that there won't be a lockout. But we won't really know until the signatures are on the dotted lines. Just saying, "What if?"

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Yes! With a shallow talent pool and a rookie cap and lots of picks look for the Patriots to move up.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yes! With a shallow talent pool and a rookie cap and lots of picks look for the Patriots to move up.

Who said that this draft was shallow? How can one say if it is shallow or deep when the list of juniors who have declared hasn't been released yet?

There is no rookie cap in place. Yet...

The Pats don't, necessarily, have lots of picks. There are still three trades that need to be paid out.

Seahawks for Branch - The Pats owe a the highest 4th round pick they have.. Currently, that is the one from Denver.

Chiefs for Jarrod Page - It's been my speculation that this pick would be based on whether or not the Pats re-sign him. Which means it could be a 2012 pick. But it may be 2011 as well.

Falcons for Quinn Ojinakka - The pick was an undisclosed pick. It wasn't the Pats 7th rounder since that was traded to the Vikings as part of the Moss deal. It wasn't the Pats 6th rounder as it was traded to the Broncos as part of the Maroney deal. It may have been conditional, but, again, we do not know.

Eagles for Tracy White- White has been a steal for the Pats, bring a leadership to special teams they haven't had since Izzo left. Beyond that it is a 2012 pick, it's unknown what the pick is exactly, but thought to be a late rounder.

So, beyond the top 3 rounds, we don't know where the Pats actually stand in terms of draft picks. One other note, it's unlikely that the Pats will receive a compensatory pick other than maybe a 7th rounder to off-set the difference between Crumpler's and Watson's contract. Green, having been cut before the season started, probably won't figure into the equation.

 

[patchick]

So, beyond the top 3 rounds, we don't know where the Pats actually stand in terms of draft picks.

This is an excellent point, and IMO it makes it near-impossible to do even preliminary mocks right now. Later picks have a kind of trickle-up effect on the higher picks, changing trade strategies among other things.

 

[BradyBranch39]

Larsen - Cut by the Pats who wanted him on the PS. Claimed by the Buccaneers and is currently starting for them.

Woah, I did not realize that.

 

[MaineMan]

Woah, I did not realize that.

Larsen began starting at guard in wk-7 pretty much by default due to a couple of simultaneous multi-week injuries at OC and LG (reserve) and then at RT in wk-8. But they must have liked him because he's stayed on as a starter even as the starting OC (Faine) went to IR and reserves were cut and others signed/promoted from the P/S behind Larsen. He's apparently making the most of his opportunity.

 

[MaineMan]

Who said that this draft was shallow? How can one say if it is shallow or deep when the list of juniors who have declared hasn't been released yet?

I'm actually not as smitten with the highly-touted juniors as many others seem to be. So, this draft feels on the thin side at several positions to me, regardless.

 

[Water Boy]

IOW, I'd call this a stay-flexible draft with a lonngggg list of if-then scenarios in place.

Well put Patchick. Totally agree. As always, the multiple high round picks BB acquires year after year puts us in a great position to maximize our return.

The way the board is shaping up tough, given the relative youth and depth of the current Patriots roster, I think this maybe a year where the best value in 2011 is moving into the top 10 or dare I say higher to get a blue chip difference maker.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Well put Patchick. Totally agree. As always, the multiple high round picks BB acquires year after year puts us in a great position to maximize our return.

The way the board is shaping up tough, given the relative youth and depth of the current Patriots roster, I think this maybe a year where the best value in 2011 is moving into the top 10 or dare I say higher to get a blue chip difference maker.

I don't think we need to move up at all. There is two plus rounds of talent in this draft. BB should be able to get us 4 capable contributors for next year's team and still have enough firepower to acquire some 2012 bullets.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Who said that this draft was shallow? How can one say if it is shallow or deep when the list of juniors who have declared hasn't been released yet?

There is no rookie cap in place. Yet...

The Pats don't, necessarily, have lots of picks. There are still three trades that need to be paid out.

Seahawks for Branch - The Pats owe a the highest 4th round pick they have.. Currently, that is the one from Denver.

Chiefs for Jarrod Page - It's been my speculation that this pick would be based on whether or not the Pats re-sign him. Which means it could be a 2012 pick. But it may be 2011 as well.

Falcons for Quinn Ojinakka - The pick was an undisclosed pick. It wasn't the Pats 7th rounder since that was traded to the Vikings as part of the Moss deal. It wasn't the Pats 6th rounder as it was traded to the Broncos as part of the Maroney deal. It may have been conditional, but, again, we do not know.

Eagles for Tracy White- White has been a steal for the Pats, bring a leadership to special teams they haven't had since Izzo left. Beyond that it is a 2012 pick, it's unknown what the pick is exactly, but thought to be a late rounder.

So, beyond the top 3 rounds, we don't know where the Pats actually stand in terms of draft picks. One other note, it's unlikely that the Pats will receive a compensatory pick other than maybe a 7th rounder to off-set the difference between Crumpler's and Watson's contract. Green, having been cut before the season started, probably won't figure into the equation.

Excellent points. We certainly have some high-quality picks to start though. Then again, BB has done a heck of a job in the late rounds these past few years. I'm sure he'll pick up a few more selections too.

One quick thing is that the Randy Moss deal included our 2012 7th, not this year's. Ojinnaka was apparently for our 7th this year. So only Page's pick is conditional, and currently we've got our 4th, 5th, and a 6th (from New Orleans) in the later rounds.

 

[satz]

I see a trade

By moving into the top 15 you can sign a player for 5 yrs so value is there.
If a 3-4 DE who has speed to rush and size is there i will move up and sign him for 5 yrs.

 

[mgteich]

There is value in moving up a couple of spots if the CBA still allows the 1st 16 to be signed for an additional year.

 

[Spikem]

Who do people keep saying that BB could trade #33 for a first next year? It's basically a first.

The idea of trading a second for a first is that you move up a whole round for delaying a year. But trading 33 would really amount to trying to move up within the round, based on a guess about how well the trade partner will do next year and a bet on their injuries and luck and strength of schedule.

Unless he doesn't like the talent pool at 33, this trade doesn't make sense.

I think people are inferring the Pats would trade #33 for something like a 2012 1st round pick and something else, such as a 2011 3rd.

I agree with you - a straight "#33 for a 2012 1st" would not be especially smart unless it were to a team such as Buffalo or Denver or Carolina.