Is It Me or is NE Being Underestimated?

[unoriginal]

The NFL is a game of matchups and of situational football/random chance any given Sunday and the Ravens, like their nearest AFC analogue the Jets, have matchup advantages in the areas that give the Pats trouble.

Because of this, the Ravens, like the Jets, will play the Pats tougher than what you'd expect when you analyze them from a "body of work" perspective in the 2014 season.

The Pats beat the 4-12 Jets by a combined total of 3 points. The margin of victory in both games was basically a field goal block. Would anyone on this board be comfortable predicting a 30-point win against the Jets this Saturday?

 

[Nunchucks]

The rhetoric was...

Before Week 5: The Bengals had exactly type of defensive front that has made Brady look pedestrian (at best). Final Score Patriots 43 - Bengals 17. Oh...

Before Week 6: The Bills had exactly type of defensive front that has made Brady look pedestrian (at best). Final Score Patriots 37 - Bills 22. Oh...

Before Week 7: The Jets had exactly type of defensive front that has made Brady look pedestrian (at best). Final Score Patriots 27 - Jets 25.

Before Week 9: The Broncos had exactly type of defensive front that has made Brady look pedestrian (at best). Final Score Patriots 43 - Broncos 21. Oh...

Before Week 12: The Lions had exactly type of defensive front that has made Brady look pedestrian (at best). Final Score Patriots 34 - Lions 9. Oh...

Before Week 15: The Dolphins had exactly type of defensive front that has made Brady look pedestrian (at best). Final Score Patriots 41 - Dolphins 13. Oh...

Those were teams with defensive fronts as good as Baltimore's if not better that were supposed to make Brady look pedestrian at best, as you say, only to lose by an average of 37.5 to 17.8. If all these vaunted defensive lines are being beaten by almost 3 scores on average, clearly then beating the Patriots in terms of totality isn't all about just pressuring Brady. There are other phases to the game too, and as it stands the Patriots have a decisive advantage to the Ravens in all those areas, because if having a strong defensive front that could make Brady look "pedestrian" was all it took to beat New England, then those other six teams wouldn't have been blown out the way they were.

Baltimore hasn't played a defense this fast and physical all season. Using past ghosts from year's past as a barometer for this game is a faulty line of thinking.

I would just point out that you left out the games where the Patriots had trouble.....so....yeah

I would just add that every game is its own creature. The matchups can be the same personnel with different results.

What we know is that the Ravens can rush the passer, just because the Patriots managed to hold them off in the past does not mean they will again.

 

[BradyManny]

Because of this, the Ravens, like the Jets, will play the Pats tougher than what you'd expect when you analyze them from a "body of work" perspective in the 2014 season.

Really well-said.

 

[IllegalContact]

The NFL is a game of matchups and of situational football/random chance any given Sunday and the Ravens, like their nearest AFC analogue the Jets, have matchup advantages in the areas that give the Pats trouble.

Because of this, the Ravens, like the Jets, will play the Pats tougher than what you'd expect when you analyze them from a "body of work" perspective in the 2014 season.

The Pats beat the 4-12 Jets by a combined total of 3 points. The margin of victory in both games was basically a field goal block. Would anyone on this board be comfortable predicting a 30-point win against the Jets this Saturday?

2013 - Pats 41 Ravens 7
2012 - Pats 49 Jets 19
2011 - Pats 37 Jets 16
2010 - Pats 45 Jets 3

plenty of these happen, too....It all comes down to what the Pats bring to the table, not the other team....which is the kind of game I am predicting for Saturday

 

[mosi]

This game Isn't about brady.. Go look at the 41-7 game. Brady was only 14-26 for 170 and 1 TD..

This is about forcing TOs and pats defense ..

Blount also ran for 76 and 2 TDs in that game

But I would say that game was all about Brady. He was in control and did not make any major mistakes. He was fiery and commanding in the first half. The second half, not so much. Blount did not run much but enough to make an impact and keep them honest. Thinking about it, that game in 2013, was very similar to this years Lions game (but better passing because of better receivers).

In the playoffs, you can't turn the ball over. As long as the Pats don't turn the ball over, and Revis does not pull a Talib, they should be OK.

 

[IllegalContact]

What we know is that the Ravens can rush the passer, just because the Patriots managed to hold them off in the past does not mean they will again.

ummm.....how many times did the Ravens sack Brady in the 2012 AFCC?

zero

the pats had the ball on the ravens 34 with a 13-7 lead 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter........and the wheels flew off the bus as they curled up into a ball and gave up. the moment they punted the ravens decided it was ass-whoopin time and the pats had no answers..........there are lots of answers now

 

[PATS16N0]

As far as I'm concerned, bring on the negativity.

The Cincinnati Bengals paid a heavy and humiliating price for it last time.

The Ravens will to.

 

[FourierSeries]

Last time we were underestimated at home I believe was against Denver this season. We all know how that turned out.

This will be a tougher game though, but Pats should still win.

 

[The Brandon Five]

The NFL is a game of matchups and of situational football/random chance any given Sunday and the Ravens, like their nearest AFC analogue the Jets, have matchup advantages in the areas that give the Pats trouble.

Because of this, the Ravens, like the Jets, will play the Pats tougher than what you'd expect when you analyze them from a "body of work" perspective in the 2014 season.

The Pats beat the 4-12 Jets by a combined total of 3 points. The margin of victory in both games was basically a field goal block. Would anyone on this board be comfortable predicting a 30-point win against the Jets this Saturday?

Unoriginal, this brings to mind the point that maybe Special Teams is the equalizer? The margin in both those games was due to two blocked field goals. We had four on the season (two returned for TDs) as well as a blocked punt.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

I sent this to my buddy today.

So looking back to 2012, these are 2 different teams all together. The Ravens that yr, were a better team. Just a few things......
Perfect breakdown. I applaud your analysis.
NE Defense: Francis, Wilfork, Deiderick, Nink. Now it's Branch, Wilfork, Silega, Jones. Talib went out in the 1st quarter. Dennard and Arrington were our CB with Gregory and DMC back at S. No Chandler, Hightower was a rookie. No Collins, or the depth we have now in Ayers, Casillas. Spikes could not cover, and we had to use White or some other scrub. Revis and Browner with an improved Chung and DMC should make a huge difference, I think it ws DMC 1st yr at S? Now we have Ryan, Butler who can fill in over a guy like Cole??? Was he not picked up mid season?
NE Offense: Branch, Aiken, Loyd, Welker. NO GRONK!!!!!. People are forgetting about LaFell, which is fine with me. He can exploit those CB and S fine. Ill take a HEALTHY Gronk, Edelman, LaFell, Wright, Tyms, Dola over a WR who was over this hill (Branch), and one who never fought for a ball (Loyd). Now the OL is kind of the same, Conn at LG and Stork at C. However this is where the problem lies for me. Solder vs Suggs, Volly vs Dumerville. If they can't stop those 2, we are in trouble. Can't let Bady get hit. Short passing game, screen plays will be big this week.
Ravens are not the same team. No Lewis, Reed, Pollard, Kruger, Ellerbee, Rice, Bolden. Pitta is out, ****son is gone. So we should be able to cover Crocket and Daniels. I also think their OL is no where near what it was then. I think are def is very well equipt to handdle what Balt has on offense.
These are two very, very different teams. I think NE is much better. BUT.....it will come down to Solder vs Suggs, and Volly vs Dumerville. McDanials better not get cute either and get away from the run. We don't need 200yrd and 3 TD, but we need to keep Balt honest for play action. I think the screen game with Wright and Vereen are going to be big parts this week.

In saying this, I still think this game can go either way. We can lose by 7, or win by 17. We have stopped much better offenses this yr, but that does not matter. It's Baltimore, they have nothing to lose again. Flacco can toss the ball all he wants, its not Arrington and Dennard on the outside anymore. Defense wins games, and I think they have to win this one.

 

[Kdo5]

With the way the Patriots ended the season in the last 5 games scoring 21, 23, 41, 17 & 6 (in half a game) it is easy to see why people are not as high on the Patriots as they were when they were blowing good teams out.

This offense has been inconsistent and people have every right to wonder about that. Myself personally I think the offense will be a littler close to mid season form than the final games of the season even if the scores don't reflect that. However to say the Patriots have not given people to have doubts recently is just not true.

Mmhm. If I saw the team in our mid season form the last several games I'd be super confident. There are some doubts with the line that are enough to be a little skeptical of how they'll handle the Ravens pass rush. But if it is the worst case scenario and our offense sputters, we can be fairly confident that our defense will take care of business until we make some plays on offense.

 

[Ring 6]

The Patriots Every team in the NFL have shown a weakness over the past 8 years against teams that can generate a good pass rush without blitzing. The Ravens are capable of that, so they have a better shot at winning than I would say a 'well rounded' team like Indy or Pittsburgh would've.
Hopefully our improved secondary can turn Flacco's tendency to just chuck it up in the air and hope it gets caught into a negative if McCourty and Revis are better able to intercept those balls than most teams.

And the Ravens have shown historically they're able to play the Patriots well at home. So I'm slightly nervous -- I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens won by 3 points; or if the Patriots won by 30 points.

Fixed it for you

 

[Skree]

I'm not afraid of the Ravens...I am anxious about feeling disappointment again. Ravens have made me feel it twice...so I equate them with disappointment.

When I take my emotions out of the equation....Pats win because they are the better team.

 

[Gronkandez]

All "experts" on Sportsline are taking the Patriots. 14 of 16 on the Bleacher Report take the Pats.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/19

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...xpert-consensus-divisional-round-picks/page/3

 

[fourhour]

I can't wait for this game to be in the books!

 

[brdmaverick]

The patriots have been beat like that too many times in the regular season and playoffs to lose like that again

Your analysis seems to contradict itself.

After all, to say they've been beat like that too many times seems to imply that they could easily get beat like that again.

 

[juny]

All "experts" on Sportsline are taking the Patriots. 14 of 16 on the Bleacher Report take the Pats.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/19

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...xpert-consensus-divisional-round-picks/page/3

All Sportsline experts picked Pats but they all picked Ravens against the spread predicting a close game. I feel bad for whoever has to figure out the spread, this game can go so many different ways.

 

[goheels22002]

The Patriots defense is going to

What's wrong with Justin Forsett? He was one of the top RBs in the AFC this year, possibly the entire league. He had the highest YPC average (5.2) in the entire NFL, above even DeMarco Murray. I'm just not sure why you're lumping him in with an undrafted rookie at LT?

Forsett can be a force if the Ravens get an early lead. His numbers are quite impressive, but he can be taken out of the game if that's a priority. The Steelers held him to 56, 38 and 36 yards in their three games.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/ForsJu00.htm

(What is the story with New Orleans? Forsett went off for 182 yards rushing against them, and whenever you look at stats, it's like everybody had their best day of the year against them.)

 

[Oswlek]

The NFL is a game of matchups and of situational football/random chance any given Sunday and the Ravens, like their nearest AFC analogue the Jets, have matchup advantages in the areas that give the Pats trouble.

Because of this, the Ravens, like the Jets, will play the Pats tougher than what you'd expect when you analyze them from a "body of work" perspective in the 2014 season.

The Pats beat the 4-12 Jets by a combined total of 3 points. The margin of victory in both games was basically a field goal block. Would anyone on this board be comfortable predicting a 30-point win against the Jets this Saturday?

Absolutely agree, though I will say that I'd expect a more comfortable game at home, off a bye rather than a short week, and with everyone reasonably healthy.

 

[brdmaverick]

Looking at year to year does have some merit, but let's keep in mind that this logic failed us in the 2012 season.

After all, at the time of that Championship Game we had beaten Baltimore a year ago with Julien Edelman playing quarterback. Going into the game the Pats could argue they were much improved over the year before. Of course, we all know what happened.

Without looking at how the Pats and Ravens compare to their former selves, by looking at this year alone the Pats should win. Yes, the Ravens are a playoff tough team that can cause problems. In fact, they'll probably make it a close game, but at the end of the day the Pats should come out victorious.