Is it a good idea to try to sign JC Jackson before year ends?

[PatsFanInVa]

Which players in the league would you offer 2 firsts to acquire, plus a $19M-$21M contract?

Even if Jackson signs the tag (unlikely until July), what would teams give us for the one rights to him?

Personally, I think that you are dreaming. Teams could have signed him last year without giving us two firsts.

So in 2020, he was good... he ended up with 9 interceptions at year-end, and 14 passes defensed. It is hard (for me) to abstract cornerback play from stats, although the stats, projected out, say that he's taken an incremental step up. He was an RFA so teams could get him for a 2nd. His 1-year deal was for $3.4M in 2021, clearly pointing toward a big payday in NE or somewhere else this year, and you have to wonder what the promise was that made him play here for that.

(After 12 games in '21, 6 int., 15 PD. So to get 16 games, you add another 4 games worth. 5 more PD, 2 more int, His int, returns are way greater, and he returned one for a TD)

His numbers projected out to 16 games, or nudged up for 17, are not all that different from 2020. Now clearly some guys (like him) are ball hawks, some are yards-allowed misers, some are various proportions of both. The easily found stats are on the INTs, PDs, and tackles (and making a lot of tackles, for a CB, can be a bad thing.)

Coming into the season, PFF thought he was the 18th best corner in the league.

Here's how he felt about how that smaller payday in 2020:

J.C. Jackson signs one-year, $3.4 million offer to stay with New England Patriots

The Immokalee native will return to the Patriots for his fourth year after he was an undrafted free agent.

www.naplesnews.com

This offseason New England placed a second-round tender on Jackson, meaning if another team signed him it would have to give the Patriots a second-round draft pick. Last week there was speculation that Jackson was frustrated about the one-year offer when he posted on Instagram: “Gotta feed the fam. This is bigger than me!!”

So here is the thing, I took everybody's word for it that he could pace the market right now, i.e., that he belongs in the elite tier. Since I look at corners through the infamous big-play lens though, what am I missing? Is he top tier?

It sure looks like it here...

2023 NFL Complete Stats - Defense

Get the latest stats from across the NFL on CBS Sports. News, scores, and statistics for your favorite teams and players throughout the 2023 season.

www.cbssports.com

I'm not finding PFF in-season 2021 grades, taking into account for the yards and catches he gives up, etc. etc. (not just the big plays he cranks out.)

Do you guys know any reason they'd see him differently in Foxboro?

 

[mgteich]

Not sure Jackson would accept $15M/year.

Probably not.

Would folks here been OK with a 3/$42M last year, with no year to year guarantees? That seem very reasonable to me. The patriots get that with 2 franchise tags. $3.4M, $18M, and $21.6M is NOT too much.

Yes, I think that the team should try to sign a long term deal. I doubt that he would get less than $40M guaranteed over two years (the equivalent of the 2 tags without the risk). The issue is the structure of Year 3 and Year 4.

 

[mgteich]

Jalen Ramsey was traded for 2 firsts plus was paid.

Unlike last year many teams will have plenty of cap space to use

OK, we just need to find a team that Jackson would play for that thinks that he is as good as Jalen Ramsey, and have Jackson and the team agree to an acceptable contract.

I think that a franchise tag signed in July is much more likely.

 

[thecore762]

He is a corner stone on this defense. You just can’t give him up. He is our own product and should do everything we can to keep him while we still have Mac on a rookie contract! When Gillmore came to NE he was a game changer and now JC. I remember the late 2000s when our defensive backs use to make every average receiver look like a pro bowler when playing against us. With that said it would be insulting to him if he is offered 15 mil a year. He is playing his butt off and teams could easily pay 20 mil a year should he become a free agent. JC is in his prime and deserves to be paid like a top corner in this league. I highly doubt he takes a hometown discount.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

$20M is likely. If he hit the FA market, he’d probably get $21-22M. Just the way the market works, and we have a big increase coming up in cap total.

The big thing with the Patriots is always about the guarantees, clauses, etc.

 

[Wordsmyth]

Pay. The. Man.

 

[masterbouncer]

I would make a front loaded deal so that he gets the biggest cap hits early on and gets cheaper later when Mac has to be extended, JC should be the cornerstone in the secondary going forward

 

[RobertWeathers]

OK, we just need to find a team that Jackson would play for that thinks that he is as good as Jalen Ramsey, and have Jackson and the team agree to an acceptable contract.

I think that a franchise tag signed in July is much more likely.

At a minimum he will be tagged.

 

[Triumph]

Why would Jackson give away his leverage as a UFA and sign now?

 

[TheRainMaker]

Note that Stephon Gilmore is a FA in 2022 as well...

Joe Haden and Kyle Fuller are 2nd tier are FA in 2022...

They are older and have less upside than Jackson.

So in 2020, he was good... he ended up with 9 interceptions at year-end, and 14 passes defensed. It is hard (for me) to abstract cornerback play from stats, although the stats, projected out, say that he's taken an incremental step up. He was an RFA so teams could get him for a 2nd. His 1-year deal was for $3.4M in 2021, clearly pointing toward a big payday in NE or somewhere else this year, and you have to wonder what the promise was that made him play here for that.

(After 12 games in '21, 6 int., 15 PD. So to get 16 games, you add another 4 games worth. 5 more PD, 2 more int, His int, returns are way greater, and he returned one for a TD)

His numbers projected out to 16 games, or nudged up for 17, are not all that different from 2020. Now clearly some guys (like him) are ball hawks, some are yards-allowed misers, some are various proportions of both. The easily found stats are on the INTs, PDs, and tackles (and making a lot of tackles, for a CB, can be a bad thing.)

Coming into the season, PFF thought he was the 18th best corner in the league.

Here's how he felt about how that smaller payday in 2020:

J.C. Jackson signs one-year, $3.4 million offer to stay with New England Patriots

The Immokalee native will return to the Patriots for his fourth year after he was an undrafted free agent.

www.naplesnews.com

So here is the thing, I took everybody's word for it that he could pace the market right now, i.e., that he belongs in the elite tier. Since I look at corners through the infamous big-play lens though, what am I missing? Is he top tier?

It sure looks like it here...

2023 NFL Complete Stats - Defense

Get the latest stats from across the NFL on CBS Sports. News, scores, and statistics for your favorite teams and players throughout the 2023 season.

www.cbssports.com

I'm not finding PFF in-season 2021 grades, taking into account for the yards and catches he gives up, etc. etc. (not just the big plays he cranks out.)

Do you guys know any reason they'd see him differently in Foxboro?

It’s quite bizarre not ONE team was interested in him.

Could they really sleep on him again?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

They are older and have less upside than Jackson.

It’s quite bizarre not ONE team was interested in him.

Could they really sleep on him again?

I just look at his production and the "ratings" of CBs and I feel this huge "You don't know what you don't know" message.

From the, "oh he's proven it now" perspective -- per int. numbers and just how good he looks to me -- I figure 20M APY is the absolute floor. But why is he at 3.4 M right now, as you point out?

Anybody have a good source for catches against/yards against? Are folks still valuing him beneath the Top 5 active? Even lower?

 

[Toofy]

I just look at his production and the "ratings" of CBs and I feel this huge "You don't know what you don't know" message.

From the, "oh he's proven it now" perspective -- per int. numbers and just how good he looks to me -- I figure 20M APY is the absolute floor. But why is he at 3.4 M right now, as you point out?

Anybody have a good source for catches against/yards against? Are folks still valuing him beneath the Top 5 active? Even lower?

I think last year it was the thought that he is not a shutdown corner and was benefitting off Gilmore presence.

This year he has proven the doubters wrong and is holding his own as a shutdown number 1 corner and the interception stats and pass rates are insane. He has allowed 1 touchdown and 7 interceptions and one pick six and one fumble . He is on elite company and is probably viewed as the best cornerback now.

20 is the absolute minimum that he could get.

 

[zipster9]

I think last year it was the thought that he is not a shutdown corner and was benefitting off Gilmore presence.

This year he has proven the doubters wrong and is holding his own as a shutdown number 1 corner and the interception stats and pass rates are insane. He has allowed 1 touchdown and 7 interceptions and one pick six and one fumble . He is on elite company and is probably viewed as the best cornerback now.

20 is the absolute minimum that he could get.

Gilmore had nothing to do with him, last year.

If it was the case, QBs would be throwing at JC's side of the field way more last year. If JC's abilities would have been exposed but it did not.

If I were to pick between the 2 for a 4-yr contract for 19m-20m per year, it'd be JC. He is young and only getting better with experience.

 

[Toofy]

Gilmore had nothing to do with him, last year.

If it was the case, QBs would be throwing at JC's side of the field way more last year. If JC's abilities would have been exposed but it did not.

If I were to pick between the 2 for a 4-yr contract for 19m-20m per year, it'd be JC. He is young and only getting better with experience.

I am thinking we are saying the same thing . All I was quoting was they believed the production was because of Gilmore and hence nobody wanted to bite at Jackson's 2nd round tender despite the production. If they knew he was going to be this good , teams should have lapped upon him at a second round tender value . We got lucky . Also the lower cap space on a per team basis helped us.

 

[zipster9]

I am thinking we are saying the same thing . All I was quoting was they believed the production was because of Gilmore and hence nobody wanted to bite at Jackson's 2nd round tender despite the production. If they knew he was going to be this good , teams should have lapped upon him at a second round tender value . We got lucky . Also the lower cap space on a per team basis helped us.

got it.

Most likely JC is tagged and a long-term is negotiated... Otherwise, he plays on the tag. If he does not let up in his excellent play, he will be tagged again the following year.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

got it.

Most likely JC is tagged and a long-term is negotiated... Otherwise, he plays on the tag. If he does not let up in his excellent play, he will be tagged again the following year

Realistically... we have to assume a non-zero chance that, no matter how much BB lubs him, we will just not pony up. We know he will at QB... until he wont. We've also seen a few times when a rare talent makes him break the piggy bank open (Seymour onward).

Doesn't it come down to the possibility of "We just can't commit $80+ million for 4 years at cornerback"?

Pay here and it's somewhere else you can't

But that said, he hustles like crazy and is a turnover machine. It would feel really good to lock him up through his prime years.

 

[aluminum seats]

Why would Jackson give away his leverage as a UFA and sign now?

It’s a brutal league, and any player could pretty much have his earnings vanish on the next snap. Will that happen? Probably not, and I don’t think he’ll sign early (if the Pats even tried). But that would be the incentive I think.

 

[Triumph]

It’s a brutal league, and any player could pretty much have his earnings vanish on the next snap. Will that happen? Probably not, and I don’t think he’ll sign early (if the Pats even tried). But that would be the incentive I think.

True

Unless otherwise stated, the only money really guaranteed is signing bonus. Jacksons value is basically top 10 right now and rising. I have to believe that since great NFL Cornerbacks are so few and far between that desperate teams will be lining up with better offers trying to pry Jackson away from NE. I envision a contract in the $100 million range.