Is it a good idea to try to sign JC Jackson before year ends?

[PScottman]

He is the real deal. #1 CB.

I'd sign him for $15m/yr for 4 or 5 yrs!

I mean, if you are willing to pay Jonnu 12.5m/yr and he is NOT a #1 TE, Why not try to lock him?

CBs are not easy to attain, especially a #1.

Why in the world would the player sign ANYTHING that isn't a highest paid in the league CB contract right now?

He holds every card with the exception of the franchise tag. No agent, even an inexperienced one, will advise him to sign any offer sheet from the Patriots unless it is as the highest paid CB in the league. Jackson is totally playing with house money the rest of this season unless he gets seriously hurt (a small percentage possibility).

Book it - he plays for free agency (if no tag) for someone to offer him $20-22M per (which some team will probably do). Even if they don't/wouldn't, that possibility exists ONLY if he doesn't sign anything.

The Patriots cant do anything except franchise him in reality (they're not going to offer highest paid in the league money IMHO) so why bother with the time and effort now that both sides know is disingenuous at best?

 

[TheRainMaker]

He is the real deal. #1 CB.

CBs are not easy to attain, especially a #1.

So if these two things are true, why would the best CB on the market sign a below market deal?

You guys need to accept he’s going to get $18-$20M+ here or somewhere else.

 

[pazrul72]

What bidding? The Pats are going to slap the franchise tag on him if they don't get a contract done..

I don’t think they will. I understand it’s a real possibility and makes sense from a certain point of view of they NEED JC Jackson next year or the secondary will have too much turnover. I thought the same thing with Malcom Butler until they got Gilmore and was pissed they didn’t sign their own guy who was just as good. Turns out BB was right and made the correct call.

Most players hate the tag and take it as a slap in the face which is why it’s rare they are used. JC has been a good soldier playing at way under what he is worth for 3 years now, He has been one of the best values in the NFL and we have heard not one peep about it. I could be wrong but I think BB respects that and puts in a respectable offer but not highest paid in the NFL and let’s him test the market. JC would not be the first to give up a million or two to stay where he is used best, he doesn’t have to move and uproot family (if he has one idk), and any other reasons people don’t like change. What he won’t do is give up 5 million a year for that.

One other point about tag versus long term deal, next year the pats are estimated to have about 25 million in cap room but significantly more going forward due to Macs rookie deal. 18.5 of that 25 going to JC leaves them little wiggle room especially with some of the other key players they need to sign. Now as always there are ways to create room but I don’t want them to have to do that. The first year of a long term contract only counting at say 10 million but then 22 and 25 million year 3 and 4 of Macs contract would be much more palatable.

 

[SBLIII]

It is but he probably isn't accepting it.

In the end Jackson will likely get paid by the Patriots to a huge deal because the Patriots don't have a replacement for Jackson on the roster.

Backloaded.

 

[SBLIII]

I don’t think they will. I understand it’s a real possibility and makes sense from a certain point of view of they NEED JC Jackson next year or the secondary will have too much turnover. I thought the same thing with Malcom Butler until they got Gilmore and was pissed they didn’t sign their own guy who was just as good. Turns out BB was right and made the correct call.

Most players hate the tag and take it as a slap in the face which is why it’s rare they are used. JC has been a good soldier playing at way under what he is worth for 3 years now, He has been one of the best values in the NFL and we have heard not one peep about it. I could be wrong but I think BB respects that and puts in a respectable offer but not highest paid in the NFL and let’s him test the market. JC would not be the first to give up a million or two to stay where he is used best, he doesn’t have to move and uproot family (if he has one idk), and any other reasons people don’t like change. What he won’t do is give up 5 million a year for that.

One other point about tag versus long term deal, next year the pats are estimated to have about 25 million in cap room but significantly more going forward due to Macs rookie deal. 18.5 of that 25 going to JC leaves them little wiggle room especially with some of the other key players they need to sign. Now as always there are ways to create room but I don’t want them to have to do that. The first year of a long term contract only counting at say 10 million but then 22 and 25 million year 3 and 4 of Macs contract would be much more palatable.

If the Patriots can sign a Gilmore type in FA, sure but the situations are different. Butler was not an UFA.

As it stands right now, Belichick knows he can't lose Jackson and he always does what is best for the team.

 

[BTTA]

20m is the new 16

Keep trying that out on my clients but I'm not getting far.

 

[BTTA]

It is but he probably isn't accepting it.

In the end Jackson will likely get paid by the Patriots to a huge deal because the Patriots don't have a replacement for Jackson on the roster.

Backloaded.

Not how the Pats make decisions.

 

[SBLIII]

Not how the Pats make decisions.

in this case it will be considered. It's different than in the past.

 

[BTTA]

in this case it will be considered. It's different than in the past.

Because?
It would need to be one whopper of a situation for the Pats to move off of a decades-old discipline.

 

[50-yard-line]

They'll make him an offer. When he says "no," they'll weigh the Franchise Tag of 18.566 (all on next year's cap) against what they can go out and find in a #2 type CB...and go from there.

I know BB likes the kid, and I know he likes playjng here, but them's the Patriot Way.

 

[BTTA]

They'll make him an offer. When he says "no," they'll weigh the Franchise Tag of 18.566 (all on next year's cap) against what they can go out and find in a #2 type CB...and go from there.

I know BB likes the kid, and I know he likes playjng here, but them's the Patriot Way.

Yup. And I don't think the team will mind having him play another "contract year" under the Tag. He's in his prime. They'll be getting three years (2020, 2021, 2022) of a top CB for what, $7M a year?

Then cross the 2023 bridge when it comes. If he's still healthy and has a good 2022, then I hope he takes an AFC team for $25M a year for 10 years.

 

[Ivan]

I think the Patriots will let him test the market, and I don’t see them matching or beating his best offers.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Why in the world would the player sign ANYTHING that isn't a highest paid in the league CB contract right now?

Because an injury can happen at any time. Guaranteed money is insurance against injuries.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Why in the world would the player sign ANYTHING that isn't a highest paid in the league CB contract right now?

He holds every card with the exception of the franchise tag. No agent, even an inexperienced one, will advise him to sign any offer sheet from the Patriots unless it is as the highest paid CB in the league. Jackson is totally playing with house money the rest of this season unless he gets seriously hurt (a small percentage possibility).

Book it - he plays for free agency (if no tag) for someone to offer him $20-22M per (which some team will probably do). Even if they don't/wouldn't, that possibility exists ONLY if he doesn't sign anything.

The Patriots cant do anything except franchise him in reality (they're not going to offer highest paid in the league money IMHO) so why bother with the time and effort now that both sides know is disingenuous at best?

Make the deal this year, based on this year's money (league-wide money), and you pretty much save 8% over doing the same thing in 2020, and 14% vs 2022, if cornerback money goes by the same logic as other positions.

NFL Cap History

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So this is a big part of the "spending spree" everybody's always talking about. You can give a player a good deal by 2021 standards. As the player, you get screwed by either past or future standards.

In 2020, the cap was $198M. This year it's $182.5M. In 2022, It'll be $208M.

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All this supports either what you say (don't get too attached,) or, if the Pats DO want to keep him, it argues for writing it up now. But where does the cap room come from?

It would be hard to resist making the offer, if we have the money for the offer, knowing that the cap balloons about 14% next year.

The Pats would get: JC Jackson based on the current top of the market, reflecting 2021 and previous deals.

JC Jackson would get:
* Money guaranteed now, so he doesn't get the nightmare stock-lowering injury
* He could temporarily have the biggest monster deal on the block - he could hold his head high in circles where people judge whether you're getting punked based on your guaranteed money.
* He would get to play for NE and the GOAT coach, which is more and more clearly the case right now... so rings are in the mix. The team's stock is high right now too.

Flies in the ointment:
1) Is a shutdown corner a valuable enough commodity to NE to spend like that on it
2) What would they have to do to make the deal? I guess the big money could begin in 2022, they could put him on the credit card basically
3) Um... what if he does get injured and become a huge guaranteed cap hit for a dinged up, formerly elite corner?

The "spending spree" was about ripping through FA, where guys were already out there having to sign contracts by today's standards. This move would be about getting Jackson to look at the deal by 2021 standards, ripping him from the loving and inflated arms of 2022 and throwing his negotiation into the comparative meat grinder of 2021.

So yeah, there are attractions , but to make ANY sense the numbers would have to appear mind-boggling

 

[stcjones]

He is the real deal. #1 CB.

I'd sign him for $15m/yr for 4 or 5 yrs!

I mean, if you are willing to pay Jonnu 12.5m/yr and he is NOT a #1 TE, Why not try to lock him?

CBs are not easy to attain, especially a #1.

Yes …..but Pats won’t do it yet

 

[PScottman]

Because an injury can happen at any time. Guaranteed money is insurance against injuries.

Please point to me the last career ending injury to an NFL football player of JC's age. They don't exist except in the rarest of circumstances (last one was 12 year vet AQ Shipley and if he was younger he could likely return) and today's players do not sign this late in the season unless it's blockbuster deals. Your caveat tells the tale - to get that much guaranteed money he'd have to sign a massively front loaded deal as well.

You can wish all you want - JC Jackson only signs before the end of this year if he's signed at over the franchise tag number meaning close to $20M per.

 

[PScottman]

but to make ANY sense the numbers would have to appear mind-boggling

I think that's what I'm saying - the "just sign him now" meme has this unsaid caveat that removes all free will from the equation and additionally assumes the home town discount (besides Bruschi and Brady...who else does that? Two players out of how many thousands over the years).

There are 31 CBs league wide on IR, but only six not designated for return (mostly ankles, some toes and knees) and of those only two with injuries that would likely significantly impact a contract were one in play (ACL and torn achilles). So a 6% chance of a serious injury in a single point in time look.

A very young star with no significant injury history, they're going to play the percentages in favor of free agency unless the home team makes the "mind boggling" offer. I'll be ecstatic if I'm proven wrong BTW, but I don't think euphoria is in my future.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Please point to me the last career ending injury to an NFL football player of JC's age. They don't exist except in the rarest of circumstances (last one was 12 year vet AQ Shipley and if he was younger he could likely return) and today's players do not sign this late in the season unless it's blockbuster deals. Your caveat tells the tale - to get that much guaranteed money he'd have to sign a massively front loaded deal as well.

You can wish all you want - JC Jackson only signs before the end of this year if he's signed at over the franchise tag number meaning close to $20M per.

If the franchise tag is applied, JC Jackson has to go injury free until Jan 2023. ACL injuries happen. It is not high probability but look at Gilmore. Tore a muscle and can only play 3rd downs. Gilmore is a bit older, but it happens. $16M a year for 5 years = $80M. If BB offered $50M guaranteed on a $80M contract you don't think JC would think about it?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

If the franchise tag is applied, JC Jackson has to go injury free until Jan 2023. ACL injuries happen. It is not high probability but look at Gilmore. Tore a muscle and can only play 3rd downs. Gilmore is a bit older, but it happens. $16M a year for 5 years = $80M. If BB offered $50M guaranteed on a $80M contract you don't think JC would think about it?

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So I think this is where it's important to think about whether we're trying to land just south of the 5th best paid guy, by the present and all previous markets, or whether the offer needs to be more from the position of pacing the market, especially with next year's cap blowing away this year's, significantly up from last year's, and way up as you go back in time from there.

Also: does he think he should be paid like the best paid in the game, like among the top 6, present numbers, or possibly like corners are not yet even being paid?


Right now the top 3 are at or near $20M apy, with very healthy guaranteed money. 16M APY gets you to 6th in present numbers - it could be the normal ask for a team's no. 1 corner by next year. I mean, homes in a neighborhood with climbing values have an "average" price, but any given home is likely to sell for the amount around the highest comparable sale, because that's where the market is now.

I dunno, really. I'm just up too late. It just seems like this kind of CB spend - at 20M+ - isn't a very Patriots move... BUT, this year is the "One Year Only Bill Belichick has Gone Crazy Crazy Crazy!" year. So I'm all over the place. I don't think JCJ would want to take 16M and tell the best cap year ever eh, I'll just settle for 80M in my prime earning years as a CB, when significantly more can be on the table eventually.

Now, I don't know why exactly. I would be baffled after spending the first 10M of it frankly... even counting taxes. But a business is a business, and getting the most money is usually the major barometer of whether you're doing it right. So I don't think he'll do it "wrong" on purpose -- i.e., being really affordable because it makes the team do better.

 

[PScottman]

If the franchise tag is applied, JC Jackson has to go injury free until Jan 2023. ACL injuries happen. It is not high probability but look at Gilmore. Tore a muscle and can only play 3rd downs. Gilmore is a bit older, but it happens.

ACL aren't career ending anymore. Would it impact his contract - absolutely, but again if he and his agent are competent - they take a one year prove it deal instead to re-establish (as when was the last time you saw an ACL terminate a career - or even significantly degrade it if the player was still in their prime? I cant recall an instance). That one year is likely best with the Pats too to be honest because it's a known system, rising team, etc.

$16M a year for 5 years = $80M. If BB offered $50M guaranteed on a $80M contract you don't think JC would think about it?

Think about it? Sure, he's human. Sign it before the end of this season? No chance.

Conversely, you don't see the Jets (I am assuming their cap situation with this BTW) going Revis Part Deux and offering $20+ per? The Rams have made all kinds "all in" moves this year - who is the "all in" team next year and sees Jackson as a cornerstone? There's always at least one.

There's just too much evidence of over-paying for a player each and every year to NOT, at a minimum, test the market because the contract you cite will STILL be there (even if not with the Pats).