Is A Stud Worth 2 Low First Rounders, Especially For A Playoff team?

[maineman209]

This would argue for not having top draftees at all.

No, it doesn't. Not even close.

It's merely a re-statement of the question, "Is that bird in the bush really worth the two birds in hand?"

 

[maineman209]

One player is good for FOUR games on a weak team, and can't add to a playoff team?

It's not a question of whether or not, say, an LB taken at #10 can add anything to a playoff team. It's a question of how much MORE he can add to a playoff team than TWO LBs taken at #23 and #31.

 

[Love The Drake]

Not unless Rosen is Rodgers and mayfield is Brees.
And Jackson is Cam mixed with Brady.
Then you give up what you have to again if you look at Brandin Cooks and the 31st for another Franchise QB it doesn't feel bad.
On the other hand this is exactly why we should of kept Grap.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Texans traded #25 and 2018 first rounder to move up to #12. As it turns out, Cleveland picks #4 this year. At the time of the trade, with a playoff team, it was #25 and next year's first.

Also, KC traded #27, a 3rd rounder, and future first to move up to #10.

I'm think two firsts, both in this year's draft, is enough to get to around pick #10.

Depends on who is there. So, that is hypothetical until a team is on the clock that is willing to trade with you. I think you can rule out Miami @ 11 and Buffalo @ 12. So we would have to target Tampa @7, Chicago @ 8, SFran @ 9, and Oakland @10. We would also have to have a specific player in mind.

BB has a side deal with Lynch. He'll give BB a discount for #8 b/c he got Jimmy for a song.

 

[VJCPatriot]

1. We are not trading two 1sts for a developmental QB. We can't even get into the top 3 with those picks and we're not doing a Herschel Walker trade. Brady will be here at least 2 more years, we have time to find a 'trainee' with potential.

2. Again our two 1sts is not enough to get high up enough to draft Chubb.

Let's get realistic folks, if we draft a QB, we are going to need to get lucky in the 2nd or 3rd. Because we don't have the ammo to get into the top 3. I'm not 'sold' on this year's crop of QBs. But this is where scouting comes into it. Sometimes a 2nd round pick at QB will outperform or be as good as the 1st rounders, see Jimmy G.

 

[Doctor DDS]

If the draft was more of a sure thing I would absolutely trade into the top 10 and get the "stud" but I have no idea if there is truly that much of a talent gap between 23, 31 and the top 10. The Pats are theoretically set up like 2012 when they grabbed both Jones and Hightower in the late 1st round. Hopefully they can do it again.

 

[50-yard-line]

In basketball you do it, without hesitation.

In football, it'd have to be a pretty special draft player to make me throw two firsts in. Even then...

Possibly the most-hyped, most can't miss, super-duper special player I've seen in recent times was Jadeveon Clowney.

In FOUR years, he's got 20 sacks, and he's more than $12million against the cap this year, and is a UFA next year.

Ezekiel Elliot is in his third year, drafted 4th. Yep, he's a stud. He's also got a cap hit of nearly 7 million this year and has already had "issues." That's the fourth highest cap hit in the league at that position and is about the same as James White, Rex Burkhead, and Mike Gilislee COMBINED.

Luck and RGIII were "can't miss guys, clear 1 and 2 picks. RGIII broke, and Luck has been good, but not great, other than in short stretches, and oh, look, if he can't come back this year with that messed up shoulder, they can cut him - I mean, his DEAD CAP would only be a little over $40 million...

BB is grabbing guys after their first contracts expire for pennies on the TOP rookie dollars - guys who already have years of NFL experience and tape.

I don't know that he'd WANT a #1-5 pick, other than to trade it down for multiple late-1st/2nds.

 

[micronin127]

I don't know which players are worth it or not. I only read mock drafts. I've read that for players ranked between 20 and 50 they all carry around the same grade. So you could argue that 23 and 31 will get you approximately the same value as 35 and 45. So, it argues for movement, either up to get an impact player or down since you will get around the same value.

I just have no way of knowing which players the Patriots would want to move up for.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Just barely.

600 (#31) + 760 (#23) = 1360

The #9 pick is listed at 1350.

Every team has its own chart, which makes it mor difficult.

 

[maineman209]

Every team has its own chart, which makes it mor difficult.

Posted by Michael David Smith on April 14, 2018, 5:27 AM EDT (PFT)


When the Cowboys acquired a bounty of draft picks in several trades to build a roster that won three Super Bowls in the 1990s, they devised a chart that assigned point values to every pick in the draft to determine how valuable picks were, and what would constitute a fair trade. That chart made its way around the league and was eventually used by everyone, but it has changed through the years.

Those changes, caused by things like the rookie salary rules and teams beginning to see less value in moving all the way up to the top picks in the draft, have resulted in a new consensus about what constitutes a fair trade of draft picks.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been around long enough to see the changes in the chart, but he says those changes have now spread around the league thoroughly enough that every team is more or less on the same page.

“One of the problems with the draft chart, if we all have our own draft charts, which is fine, sometimes it’s hard to make a trade because, ‘Well, my draft chart says this. Well, your draft chart says that,’ whereas if we all use the same chart, we all agree on basic value,” Belichick said. “Then it’s a lot easier to get what we call, I’d say, a fair trade, which I’d say over the last few years the majority of the trades that we’ve studied have been within a few percentage points one way or the other of being the correct value for the trade. In some cases in later rounds, sometimes those get a little bit skewed just because you have fewer picks.

So if you don’t have many picks to work with then you can only use the ones that you have, but a lot of times in the earlier round picks, a sixth round choice will get thrown in or given back or something like that to sort of balance out the value of the trade.

I’d say, overall, in the last couple of years, as we’ve studied the trade values, they’ve been pretty consistent with what our evaluations show on the trade chart, which I think is what the majority of the teams use. Relative to resetting the draft, the trade chart, I’d say there’s been a little bit of a modification there.”

 

[supafly]

On the other hand this is exactly why we should of kept Grap.

Wasn’t an option, man. There were no circumstances that they could’ve afforded to keep Jimmy without moving Brady.

 

[mgteich]

It's not a question of whether or not, say, an LB taken at #10 can add anything to a playoff team. It's a question of how much MORE he can add to a playoff team than TWO LBs taken at #23 and #31.

Wasn’t an option, man. There were no circumstances that they could’ve afforded to keep Jimmy without moving Brady.

Perhaps, we should have a poll with regard to whether we should have kept JAG and traded Brady.

 

[Ring 6]

Perhaps, we should have a poll with regard to whether we should have kept JAG and traded Brady.

Perhaps we shouldn’t

 

[maineman209]

Perhaps, we should have a poll with regard to whether we should have kept JAG and traded Brady.

As long as it includes the options ...

- "Ray Lewis killed a guy"
- "Dez?"

 

[IllegalContact]

as long as we draft an intelligent safety with a 4.8/40 in the 2nd round, we should be fine

 

[varjao]

I'd be ok with packaging one of the 2nd rounders or even both since BB's track record on the 2nd round is terrible, should stop trying to out-think the league and going to safer routes like getting a WR or RB, positions that usually produce good prospects at this point of the draft. I don't see those positions as huge needs though so we are going to end up with another bum safety or a small sized slot CB/ST.

 

[BobDigital]

Yes and no. Is a young superstar worth 2 first round picks? Yes. The problem is you are only trading up for a chance to get one. Look at Chubb.

One of the best and safest players in the draft. Likely as the first defensive player going this year it is expected he will be a hall of fame type talent like a Peppers, Greene or Strahan.

But the same promise is made for many top drafted players who go on to be okay to good or completely bust. Personally I hate the idea of trading away multiple first unless it is for a quarterback.