I acknowledge Modell announced in November of 1995 that he was moving the team to Baltimore. The team wasn't on the upswing with a 4-5 record to that point, rather they were on pace for results in line with Belichick's first three uninspiring seasons as the head coach. The 1995 team wasn't good, they finished the season on a 2-10 slide which started before Modell's announcement. They were also bad their first four seasons in Baltimore, including 4-12 in 1996, one year after Belichick's departure.
This is a little convoluted but I'll reply anyway. The 2009 season tells us what? For starters, Brady's coming back from an ACL. They had a similar record to the season prior but the schedule was much softer in 2008. In 2009 they had road losses to the Colts and Saints who would eventually meet in the SB. The defense got lit up in week 17 @HOU which was also the game when Welker blew out his ACL. This was the season Belichick suggested he couldn't reach the team and he comically ignored Kraft in a meeting. Have I made enough excuses yet? Let me know.
They did win the division in 2009 so that's a plus.
As far as I know Arians isn't responsible for taking a Super Bowl ring away from Brady.
As for the Winston part, he was a disaster, obviously, with all of those turnovers. The 2019 Bucs are a good example of a QB ruining a season for a team. The 2020 Bucs are a good example of how Brady can influence a team (both on and off the field) and turn them into a Super Bowl champion.