ILB Adam Seward [merged - old 2008 thread]

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

If we really want him he's ours via poison pill language in the offer sheet, or we add something to the mix as we did with Welker.

I get the feeling after last year that the poison pill is no longer in Patriots' arsenal -- or, if it still is, it would have to be a pretty special situation or player. I think Kraft (and maybe the other owners by unspoken aquiescence) find it unseemly.

If we're talking about a 5th plus something else then I start to not like this at all. Not that I think a 7th is a big deal or anything, but it does have some value in trades or other similar situations.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

Belichick arrived in 2000. Since then, the team has only had 8 5th round picks and 2 of them were in the miserable first draft under BB (although that draft did net Brady). However, if you take away that horrible draft, that leaves the following:

Hakim Akbar
Dan Koppen
P.K. Sam
Ryan Claridge
Ryan O'Callaghan
Clint Oldenburg

That means that 50% of the draftees (outside the disaster of year 1) are still in the NFL and one is an all-pro. Does anyone think that Seward has better than a 1-in-6 change of becoming an all-pro?

Does anyone think that whoever we select in the 5th round has a 1-in-6 chance of being an All Pro or Pro Bowler? I certainly don't. I don't know if any pick we have this year other than our first has anywhere close to those odds.

Besides, this is not how probability works. Koppen was really 1 in about 270 (my estimated number of fifth round selections in the timeframe you state). Just because the Pats had one Pro Bowler out of six fifth round selection doesn't mean that every six times they select in the fifth round they will get a Pro Bowler. They could draft in the fifth round another 100 times and never get a player close to as good as Koppen.

Also, I don't really care ho many 5th rounders we drafted are still in the NFL, but playing for another team. How does it benefit us if we cut a fifth rounder and he is playing for someone else?

If Belichick and Pioli feel Seward is worth giving up a fifth rounder for, who are we to argue. A fifth round pick is most likely going to be a back up and/or special teams specialist anyway. Seward can definitely fit that role.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

Does anyone think that whoever we select in the 5th round has a 1-in-6 chance of being an All Pro or Pro Bowler? I certainly don't. I don't know if any pick we have this year other than our first has anywhere close to those odds.

Besides, this is not how probability works. Koppen was really 1 in about 270 (my estimated number of fifth round selections in the timeframe you state). Just because the Pats had one Pro Bowler out of six fifth round selection doesn't mean that every six times they select in the fifth round they will get a Pro Bowler. They could draft in the fifth round another 100 times and never get a player close to as good as Koppen.

Also, I don't really care ho many 5th rounders we drafted are still in the NFL, but playing for another team. How does it benefit us if we cut a fifth rounder and he is playing for someone else?

If Belichick and Pioli feel Seward is worth giving up a fifth rounder for, who are we to argue. A fifth round pick is most likely going to be a back up and/or special teams specialist anyway. Seward can definitely fit that role.

I'm working on my theory of potential record breaking Denver receivers now.

All I need to do is find a pair of Donkey free agents to group with Rod Smith and compare them to their top draftees.

"I can prove that sitting out the draft and signing a free agent WR is more likely to yield an all time great than signing a high draft pick!"

 

[RayClay]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

Does anyone think that whoever we select in the 5th round has a 1-in-6 chance of being an All Pro or Pro Bowler? I certainly don't. I don't know if any pick we have this year other than our first has anywhere close to those odds.

Besides, this is not how probability works. Koppen was really 1 in about 270 (my estimated number of fifth round selections in the timeframe you state). Just because the Pats had one Pro Bowler out of six fifth round selection doesn't mean that every six times they select in the fifth round they will get a Pro Bowler. They could draft in the fifth round another 100 times and never get a player close to as good as Koppen.

Also, I don't really care ho many 5th rounders we drafted are still in the NFL, but playing for another team. How does it benefit us if we cut a fifth rounder and he is playing for someone else?

If Belichick and Pioli feel Seward is worth giving up a fifth rounder for, who are we to argue. A fifth round pick is most likely going to be a back up and/or special teams specialist anyway. Seward can definitely fit that role.

A fifth round pick on this team is more likely to be a Jet than a Patriot and I'm not kidding.

The days when we had space for a ton of draft picks are well over.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

Does anyone think that whoever we select in the 5th round has a 1-in-6 chance of being an All Pro or Pro Bowler? I certainly don't. I don't know if any pick we have this year other than our first has anywhere close to those odds.

Besides, this is not how probability works. Koppen was really 1 in about 270 (my estimated number of fifth round selections in the timeframe you state). Just because the Pats had one Pro Bowler out of six fifth round selection doesn't mean that every six times they select in the fifth round they will get a Pro Bowler. They could draft in the fifth round another 100 times and never get a player close to as good as Koppen.

This is inaccurate, because you are inflating the statistical pool. This isn't every team drafting, it's the New England Patriots under Belichick. At worst, he's 1-8 in the 5th round All-Pro department.

Also, I don't really care ho many 5th rounders we drafted are still in the NFL, but playing for another team. How does it benefit us if we cut a fifth rounder and he is playing for someone else?

Using that argument, why go after a Randy Moss? After all, he wasn't benefiting New England because he was playing for someone else.

If Belichick and Pioli feel Seward is worth giving up a fifth rounder for, who are we to argue. A fifth round pick is most likely going to be a back up and/or special teams specialist anyway. Seward can definitely fit that role.

1.) We are fans on a message board passing time. Belioli aren't perfect, which has been quite evident when it comes to free agent linebackers.

2.) A fifth round pick will be whatever it will be. Seward, to date, isn't even an O'Callaghan.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

I get the feeling after last year that the poison pill is no longer in Patriots' arsenal -- or, if it still is, it would have to be a pretty special situation or player. I think Kraft (and maybe the other owners by unspoken aquiescence) find it unseemly.

If we're talking about a 5th plus something else then I start to not like this at all. Not that I think a 7th is a big deal or anything, but it does have some value in trades or other similar situations.

IIRC, the NFL wanted to get rid of the poison pills, but, for whatever reason, they didn't. I can see the reluctance to use them within the division, but I don't know that they would have those compunctions about an NFC team.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

This is inaccurate, because you are inflating the statistical pool. This isn't every team drafting, it's the New England Patriots under Belichick. At worst, he's 1-8 in the 5th round All-Pro department.



Using that argument, why go after a Randy Moss? After all, he wasn't benefiting New England because he was playing for someone else.



1.) We are fans on a message board passing time. Belioli aren't perfect, which has been quite evident when it comes to free agent linebackers.

2.) A fifth round pick will be whatever it will be. Seward, to date, isn't even an O'Callaghan.

So you agree with my Rod Smith argument? It's about the same as yours.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

So you agree with my Rod Smith argument? It's about the same as yours.

No, RayClay, it's not.

 

[captain stone]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

The days when we had space for a ton of draft picks are well over.

They don't have to be over, if we actually start drafting well again, esp. on Day 2.

 

[bradmahn]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

1.) Dan Koppen, All-Pro:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d805db597&template=with-video&confirm=true


2.) Go take a look at that 2000 draft. If you want to count it, feel free. I would guess that there's still not going to be many people who think there is a better than 1-in-8 chance that Seward will be an all-pro.

3.) O'Callaghan has more career starts than Seward.

4.) I don't know enough about Seward to care one way or the other. Belioli are extremely competent and I generally defer to them. However, I can understand the people who don't want to just give away a 5th round pick on this guy.

1. Back up All-Pro, this means nothing to me. Just kidding, my bad on that one.

2. Does Seward have a better than 1 in 8 chance to be a starter? I think that's a possibility. If you are measuring the quality of a player by All-Pro selections then most of the Patriots aren't good draft picks.

3. Hasn't the starts thing been addressed? Seward does not project well in a 4-3 defense so what would make him start for a 4-3 defense besides a massive injury report at MLB? A change of system and team may be enough to have him m

4. We can agree on this.

 

[BradyManny]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

A fifth round pick on this team is more likely to be a Jet than a Patriot and I'm not kidding.

The days when we had space for a ton of draft picks are well over.

Well put. I will say there's some good finds for us in the drafts in round 3-6 in the draft this year, but in all likelihood, how many make the team? If we're lucky, our 5th round pick will get snuck onto the PS, if we're not, as you say, they'll probably wind up with the NYJ.

There just aren't enough roster spots. If we can trade our 5th pick for a player who we know will likely make the roster and contribute, its an absolute no brainer. Is Seward that guy? I don't know, but if BB and Pioli think he is, who's going to question that move?

 

[Lampshade]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

Jonathan Kraft has talked numerous times about the benefits of signing a RFA instead of a UFA due to the compensatory picks equation. Are any of the UFA LBs worth potentially losing the 3rd round pick Asante would otherwise bring? I don't know, but I bet it's in the equation somewhere. A 5th this year or a 3rd next year?

 

[signbabybrady]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

1.) We are fans on a message board passing time. Belioli aren't perfect, which has been quite evident when it comes to free agent linebackers.

You have a problem with Vrabel and Thomas...both free agent linebackers.

Bryan Cox, Roman Phifer, Colvin.

That is just off the top of my head but there is 5 good LB aquired via free agency.

We failed miserably on one Monty Beisel and all the sudden we are bad at signing LBs.

Chad Brown may have been a failure or maybe we just had really high expectations for an over the hill LB. They liked him enough to bring him back around once or twice more.

So explain to me where they are bad at getting free agent LBs?

 

[Gunnails]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

A fifth round pick on this team is more likely to be a Jet than a Patriot and I'm not kidding.

The days when we had space for a ton of draft picks are well over.

==============================

Isn't it great, it's like the Jets get an extra 6 picks.

 

[signbabybrady]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

==============================

Isn't it great, it's like the Jets get an extra 6 picks.

Thats an extra 6 picks that they get to screw up.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

Thats an extra 6 picks that they get to screw up.

No its 6 better than their own, because we are making them. A guy not good enough to make our team is good enough to make theirs. I bet the guys they picked up last year that we cut, will end up being better players for them than their own picks, especially day 2.
Hell, if any of them stick around for 4 years they get more out of them than their own top 15 picks. (Robertson, Vilma)

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

You have a problem with Vrabel and Thomas...both free agent linebackers.

Bryan Cox, Roman Phifer, Colvin.

That is just off the top of my head but there is 5 good LB aquired via free agency.

We failed miserably on one Monty Beisel and all the sudden we are bad at signing LBs.

Chad Brown may have been a failure or maybe we just had really high expectations for an over the hill LB. They liked him enough to bring him back around once or twice more.

So explain to me where they are bad at getting free agent LBs?

I didn't say they were bed at getting free agent LBs. Thanks for twisting the words though. Beisel is almost a category now, making it evident that Belioli aren't perfect. Brown was also a failure. Wesly Mallard, Ryan Phillips and Ratcliff Thomas would fit into that category as well.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

IIRC, the NFL wanted to get rid of the poison pills, but, for whatever reason, they didn't. I can see the reluctance to use them within the division, but I don't know that they would have those compunctions about an NFC team.

Since the poison pill works to the benefit of players -- specifically by giving RFAs options -- I doubt the NFL could prohibit the practice without amending the CBA. Tough chance.

Remember, the union is chomping at the bit to assert collusion by the owners with respect to using the poison pill. They even filed a greivance with respect to Welker, even though the non-use of the poison pill there worked to his benefit, which made it a silly claim. But some day a player on the flip side of that -- a player who wishes to allege that he would have been signed to a contract better than his tender if the wooing team had used the poison pill -- is going to get some traction with that claim.

The reality is that poison pills are extremely rare. There have only been a few cases where teams have actually pulled the trigger and used one. Given the Welker experience last year, my opinion (and it's only that) is that Kraft would never permit one to be used unless it were a special situation.

 

[captain stone]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

I didn't say they were bed at getting free agent LBs. Thanks for twisting the words though. Beisel is almost a category now, making it evident that Belioli aren't perfect. Brown was also a failure. Wesly Mallard, Ryan Phillips and Ratcliff Thomas would fit into that category as well.

As will TJ Slaughter.

 

[captain stone]

Re: Pats to host LB Adam Seward tomorrow

Jonathan Kraft has talked numerous times about the benefits of signing a RFA instead of a UFA due to the compensatory picks equation.

I haven't heard any of his interviews; why would signing a RFA be more beneficial for the signing club than signing a UFA?