If we trade down from 3?

[PatsFan2]

With all the holes on this team, the idea of trading down makes a lot of sense. If the value is offered, that is.

I'm in the Trade Down camp too next year's QB class will be decent too get a Rattler or Pratt and keep building going forward.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

View attachment 56818

I wish this were feasible but JJM is not getting past Denver at 12

 

[jmt57]

There are a couple of threads in the draft forum on this subject. The best analysis is based on recent draft trade history.

What kind of return can we get for trading the the 3rd pick?

Obviously the Trey Lance trade in 2021 comes to mind. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I'm...

www.patsfans.com

Water Boy made note of this trade:

2021: 49ers trade up and draft Trey Lance​

49ers get #3 overall pick​

Dolphins get:​

2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall)​

2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall)​

2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

Headcase pointed out this comparable trade:

2018​

Colts traded #3 (Sam Darnold) to NJY for 6th, 37th, 39th, and a '19 2nd​

​

Which lines up nicely with​

Patriots trade #3 to NYG for 6th, 39th, 47th and a '25 2nd​

Here are some others that I found:

2023
Houston receives #3 overall and a 4th (105)
Arizona receives a 1st (#12), 2nd (#33), 2024 1st and 2024 3rd

2017
49ers receive #2 overall
Bears receive #3, a 3rd (#67), 4th (#111), and a 2018 3rd

2016
Eagles receive #2 overall and a 2017 5th
Browns receive a 1st (#8), 3rd (#77), 4th (#100), 2017 1st and 2018 2nd

2014
Bills receive #4 overall
Browns receive a 1st (#9), 2015 1st and 2015 4th

2013
Dolphins receive #3 overall
Raiders receive a 1st (#12) and 2nd (#42)

 

[The Gr8est]

There are a couple of threads in the draft forum on this subject. The best analysis is based on recent draft trade history.

What kind of return can we get for trading the the 3rd pick?

Obviously the Trey Lance trade in 2021 comes to mind. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I'm...

www.patsfans.com

Water Boy made note of this trade:

2021: 49ers trade up and draft Trey Lance​

49ers get #3 overall pick​

Dolphins get:​

2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall)​

2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall)​

2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

Headcase pointed out this comparable trade:

2018​

Colts traded #3 (Sam Darnold) to NJY for 6th, 37th, 39th, and a '19 2nd​

​

Which lines up nicely with​

Patriots trade #3 to NYG for 6th, 39th, 47th and a '25 2nd​

Here are some others that I found:

2023
Houston receives #3 overall and a 4th (105)
Arizona receives a 1st (#12), 2nd (#33), 2024 1st and 2024 3rd

2017
49ers receive #2 overall
Bears receive #3, a 3rd (#67), 4th (#111), and a 2018 3rd

2016
Eagles receive #2 overall and a 2017 5th
Browns receive a 1st (#8), 3rd (#77), 4th (#100), 2017 1st and 2018 2nd

2014
Bills receive #4 overall
Browns receive a 1st (#9), 2015 1st and 2015 4th

2013
Dolphins receive #3 overall
Raiders receive a 1st (#12) and 2nd (#42)

This really makes a trade down look attractive to a team with a lot of needs.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

You have to make an honest evaluation of the top QBs. If one of them is truly "the guy" you want to move forward with, then you sit and take him. You have to be honest though. You can't just talk yourself into a guy because it's ideal/convenient to get a QB. And you can't talk yourself out of one because the downside of failing is devastating.

If you don't want the QB there at #3, then I think moving back is probably the right move. It puts you in the best position to eventually be able to get a QB that you like. You'd miss out on the top talent at #3, but this is a team with a TON of needs. I know there have been 1 year turnarounds before, but this team seems unlikely to be one. The cupboard is pretty empty at most positions. Moving back gives you more ammo to address the overall talent deficiency and/or ammo to make your own trade for a QB that you do like if the options don't excite you this year.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

There are a couple of threads in the draft forum on this subject. The best analysis is based on recent draft trade history.

What kind of return can we get for trading the the 3rd pick?

Obviously the Trey Lance trade in 2021 comes to mind. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I'm...

www.patsfans.com

Water Boy made note of this trade:

2021: 49ers trade up and draft Trey Lance​

49ers get #3 overall pick​

Dolphins get:​

2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall)​

2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall)​

2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

Headcase pointed out this comparable trade:

2018​

Colts traded #3 (Sam Darnold) to NJY for 6th, 37th, 39th, and a '19 2nd​

​

Which lines up nicely with​

Patriots trade #3 to NYG for 6th, 39th, 47th and a '25 2nd​

Here are some others that I found:

2023
Houston receives #3 overall and a 4th (105)
Arizona receives a 1st (#12), 2nd (#33), 2024 1st and 2024 3rd

2017
49ers receive #2 overall
Bears receive #3, a 3rd (#67), 4th (#111), and a 2018 3rd

2016
Eagles receive #2 overall and a 2017 5th
Browns receive a 1st (#8), 3rd (#77), 4th (#100), 2017 1st and 2018 2nd

2014
Bills receive #4 overall
Browns receive a 1st (#9), 2015 1st and 2015 4th

2013
Dolphins receive #3 overall
Raiders receive a 1st (#12) and 2nd (#42)

That 2017 trade where the Bears traded down from 2 to 3 is interesting. Maybe AZ would swap picks 3 and 4. They have a lot of draft choices - see chart - but maybe we can move up from 34 to their 27th, plus get their high 3rd rounder #66 (that about balances points-wise). With that:
- we take McCarthy at 4
- at 27, we're in position to make a move for OT Guyton who everyone is mocking around 24-25 (give up a 4th to move up to 23)
- trade the two 3rd rounders 66 and 68 to move up to around #40 to get the best WR

 

[ScottishPatriots]

I'd certainly take a 2nd and a couple of future 1sts to move down to 11 with Minnesota and draft a QB there if I think he's worth it. Those two 2nds of yours would be very valuable in this draft class, and if you don't think the QB you're passing on is that hot, then Minnesota's 1sts next year and the year after which you own now will probably be decent picks.

I'd pass on trading with Minnesota, they're always floating about .500 you want to trade with someone with the potential to really suck like Denver, NY Giants if you're going to trade.

You don't want a future first being in the 20s when you have someone like the Giants or Broncos who could win 4/5 games.

 

[BelizePats]

This team has so many needs. Go for the home run at #3 and hope you get a franchise QB that's there for the next 23-15 years. Or trade back and fill holes at mulitiple positions of need with an infusion of youth and athleticism.
I see good arguments for both. A month ago i wanted the QB ar 3, now I'm thinking trade back. And don't sleep on that second round pick we have. At 34, it's a pretty sweet chip that could bring excellent value from the right team.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I am also concerned about McCarthy’s accuracy.

He also has the smallest hands among the top QB prospects at 9 inches.

Related?

Those are some Joe Burrow sized hands.

 

[State]

I’d rather trade back a few spots and take McCarthy or one of the two top offensive tackles.

Let’s do that, and go Joe.

Joe Alt, that is.

 

[Wozzy]

Let’s do that, and go Joe.

Joe Alt, that is.

Joe or Fashanu… which I can’t spell without looking it up. But I like McCarthy.

 

[State]

I am also concerned about McCarthy’s accuracy.

He also has the smallest hands among the top QB prospects at 9 inches.

Related?

Penix has 10 1/2” hands. “Big Hands” Penix, know what I mean? Bradyesque-sized monsters.

 

[stcjones]

I am also concerned about McCarthy’s accuracy.

He also has the smallest hands among the top QB prospects at 9 inches.

Related?

Agree….McCarthy has a ton of ??? and struggled to make throws at combine. I think if Maye is there you have to take him….if not it will be either Daniels or Harrison there and then try to take QB later Penix Rattler or Nix later

 

[stcjones]

Penix has 10 1/2” hands. “Big Hands” Penix, know what I mean? Bradyesque-sized monsters.

Penix as you know has had two very significant injuries/surgeries which I think is major red flag

 

[MrTibbs]

I'm in the Trade Down camp too next year's QB class will be decent too get a Rattler or Pratt and keep building going forward.

Where did you get that information? It's widely reported that next years QB Draft class is terrible. Outside of Sanders it's a crapshoot unless someone rises up the board like Jayden Daniels did. As of now it's a poor QB class. Probably looking like the Kenny Pickett draft class.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

For years and years the majority of Pats fans would get frustrated with Bill trading back. Now he’s gone and a lot of people seem to want a trade back.

Give me the best qb available at 3 and a trade back in the second round instead.

 

[PatsFan2]

Penix has 10 1/2” hands. “Big Hands” Penix, know what I mean? Bradyesque-sized monsters.

I would be so Happy if Penix Jr is available @ 34.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

There are a couple of threads in the draft forum on this subject. The best analysis is based on recent draft trade history.

What kind of return can we get for trading the the 3rd pick?

Obviously the Trey Lance trade in 2021 comes to mind. 49ers get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 3 overall) Dolphins get: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) 2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall) I'm...

www.patsfans.com

Water Boy made note of this trade:

2021: 49ers trade up and draft Trey Lance​

49ers get #3 overall pick​

Dolphins get:​

2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall)​

2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall)​

2023 first-round pick (No. 29 overall)​

I would not get too excited by the Trey Lance deal; the 49ers were idiots. Even if Lance worked out, it was too steep a price to pay and there is simply no way that the Patriots could engineer a similar deal....I wish they could, but everyone knows that the 49ers were robbed and I am sure they do not want to pay the same price.

So temper your expectations....but it is about to get interesting.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I would be so Happy if Penix Jr is available @ 34.

I watched a few highlights of Penix. He had perfect protection and WRs that were wide open--this is not what he would experience with the Patriots, at least the way they are constructed now.

 

[scar3392]

If Drake Maye is there at 3, I bet he’d still be there at 5 (NYG would probably take him at 6). I wonder if LAC would trade 5 & 37 to leapfrog Ari to get Harrison jr and pair him up with Herbert? There’s always the risk of someone blowing away Ari for 4 (alt, min) but they have a lot of draft capital already they will probably want to take the pick cuz they’ll still be getting a stud player. Alt, Nabers, Bowers?