Content Post Idle thoughts: the "NEXT" edition.

[Wozzy]

The Pats are ranked 9th in points allowed per game. I might be misreading your post, but changing the DC, when a tweak might be all that is required, seems a bit extreme. You might be suggesting throwing out the baby with the bath water.

Having a Top 10 defense is usually a reason to be happy.

Agreed here, and what people need to realize is the first drive of the game for opposing offenses is the scripted drive. The one they’ve been repping all week and getting ready. After that it becomes a chess match.

The best defenses in the NFL can often halt those first drives, the Pats D is not there yet. Their zone coverages, deciding when to utilize man and doing them both well are a work in progress.

Much like the offensive line, the defensive backfield rely on communication to get things right prior to the snap. They seem to be missing a vet back there to be that QB. Gonzo is young, their safety is a rookie. The coaches and players need to improve in this area or the best offenses will exploit the pass.

But like I said early in the season, if they can fix the coverages this is a top ten defense. Nobody can run on this D, the pass rush when let loose can be ferocious… coverage is the last thing that needs fixing.

 

[p8ryts]

We need a numbha one receivah.

Is this a joke?

 

[TommyD4207]

Is this a joke?

 

[n1997y]

The Pats are ranked 9th in points allowed per game. I might be misreading your post, but changing the DC, when a tweak might be all that is required, seems a bit extreme. You might be suggesting throwing out the baby with the bath water.

Having a Top 10 defense is usually a reason to be happy.

Im not saying change the DC. I’m saying I don’t think they really have a DC now.

It seems what they have is a less experienced coach doing some of the DC job while also doing some or all of his regular job as LB coach.

I think that shows most evidently in the way the start the games, which is consistently a problem of coming out flat for the first several series. I think it may show in other areas although less glaringly. It seems to me there is a general feeling the defense is underperforming compared to expectations and this may be a reason for that.

 

[n1997y]

I would still trade a first for AJ Brown is the opportunity was there. Would give the Pats a real shot at winning the Super Bowl. Sorry to offend the nursing home crowd.

Just don’t cry when we’re slow to change your diapers.

And congrats on making such a wonderful first impression. Curious why you thought that kind of approach was a good idea. Maybe stfu until you learn some manners newby.

 

[TommyD4207]

I think that shows most evidently in the way the start the games, which is consistently a problem of coming out flat for the first several series. I think it may show in other areas although less glaringly. It seems to me there is a general feeling the defense is underperforming compared to expectations and this may be a reason for that.

While it might be a general feeling, the reality is they're 16th in yards and 14th in points, and top-5 against the run, with some pretty dogshit linebackers and no depth in the secondary.

Considering they were bottom third in every category a year ago, and it's a pretty young defense in a new scheme, I feel like 'underperforming' is unfair. It's not like these were going to be the 85 Bears or something.

Depends what your expectations are, I guess.

 

[n1997y]

Somethings are better left unsaid..

You said it much better than I.

 

[mayoclinic]

We have the #5 scoring defense in the NFL, averaging 19PPG. Have given up 20 only twice so far: 27 to Miami, 21 to Pittsburgh.

If the offense can score more than 20 points, this team has a high chance of winning.

 

[n1997y]

While it might be a general feeling, the reality is they're 16th in yards and 14th in points, and top-5 against the run, with some pretty dogshit linebackers and no depth in the secondary.

Considering they were bottom third in every category a year ago, and it's a pretty young defense in a new scheme, I feel like 'underperforming' is unfair. It's not like these were going to be the 85 Bears or something.

Depends what your expectations are, I guess.

Good points. I may not have corrected sufficiently for board bias in appraising the general feelings. My own feelings are that the amount of individual talent across the defense is higher than the overall productivity. For one thing, I’m not entirely convinced the LBs are dogshit, even though they’re not playing as well as I’d like. That makes me wonder if it’s more than just coincidence that their coach is doing two jobs.

 

[TommyD4207]

Good points. I may not have corrected sufficiently for board bias in appraising the general feelings. My own feelings are that the amount of individual talent across the defense is higher than the overall productivity. For one thing, I’m not entirely convinced the LBs are dogshit, even though they’re not playing as well as I’d like. That makes me wonder if it’s more than just coincidence that their coach is doing two jobs.

I mean, we've seen Tavai, right? 1 good game, 4 games where he disappears. Spillane was brought in mostly for leadership, and teaching the scheme, he was a big overpay in relation to his talent in my opinion. And Christian Elliss, also in my opinion, should never be a starting linebacker, he's just there because they have nobody else.

Marte Mapu got a lot of run at the end of the Titans game, when the defense really throttled the Titans in the 2nd half. That was encouraging.

 

[n1997y]

Agreed here, and what people need to realize is the first drive of the game for opposing offenses is the scripted drive. The one they’ve been repping all week and getting ready. After that it becomes a chess match.

The best defenses in the NFL can often halt those first drives, the Pats D is not there yet. Their zone coverages, deciding when to utilize man and doing them both well are a work in progress.

Much like the offensive line, the defensive backfield rely on communication to get things right prior to the snap. They seem to be missing a vet back there to be that QB. Gonzo is young, their safety is a rookie. The coaches and players need to improve in this area or the best offenses will exploit the pass.

But like I said early in the season, if they can fix the coverages this is a top ten defense. Nobody can run on this D, the pass rush when let loose can be ferocious… coverage is the last thing that needs fixing.

Before the season there were expectations that the Pats would be among the best defenses in the NFL. Now we’re accepting less, as a work in progress.

I’m saying it doesn’t become a chess match after the opening drive. It’s a chess match before they hit the field.

Part of the chess match is that scripted opening drive, and the response to it. In grandmaster chess openings are scripted and the responses to them are scripted. We are falling down on the second part of that.

 

[condon84]

Funny how good/great/elite QB play with proper OC coaching and scheme makes up for it, huh? Maye raises guys up, JMcD puts them in position to succeed.

Man, it's so nice to have professional football back in Foxboro.

To be fair, our WRs are making some great catches. Maye throws a great ball, but the catches that Diggs, Boutte, and Pop have made have in the last 3 weeks have been elite.

 

[n1997y]

I mean, we've seen Tavai, right? 1 good game, 4 games where he disappears. Spillane was brought in mostly for leadership, and teaching the scheme, he was a big overpay in relation to his talent in my opinion. And Christian Elliss, also in my opinion, should never be a starting linebacker, he's just there because they have nobody else.

Marte Mapu got a lot of run at the end of the Titans game, when the defense really throttled the Titans in the 2nd half. That was encouraging.

My thought is that when Tavai shows some good play it shows what he’s capable of, and when he disappears the question is why. Is he not showing up for every game, or are some opponents doing things differently against him? Either way it leaves me wondering if coaching could improve the number of good games and reduce the number of disappearances.

I’m more positive about both Spillane and Ellis than you are. I don’t think Vrabel would have brought Spillane in if he thought his talent was deficient. I believe Vrabel expects Spillane to be able to play at the level Vrabel finds satisfactory, and I think that’s a fairly high bar, so I’m not going to discount Spillane. He looked a little rough early on but he’s definitely playing better in recent games IMO. Ellis is still learning the job I think, and again to my eyes he’s improved significantly over the past few games. And I like Mapu a lot more in the role he’s playing this year. Overall I think they’re a good roster of individual players, improving as a unit but still lots of opportunity for more improvement.

 

[Wozzy]

Before the season there were expectations that the Pats would be among the best defenses in the NFL. Now we’re accepting less, as a work in progress.

I’m saying it doesn’t become a chess match after the opening drive. It’s a chess match before they hit the field.

Part of the chess match is that scripted opening drive, and the response to it. In grandmaster chess openings are scripted and the responses to them are scripted. We are falling down on the second part of that.

Season long rankings get judged at the end of the season… not the first few weeks. Teams, young teams especially, have a lot of room to improve in the first month.

With a Monday night game left to play the Pat’s D currently rank 7th in points per drive allowed… points is the most important stat in football… I don’t see that as “falling down.”

8th in points scored, 7th in points allowed, substantially fewer turnovers on this win streak is why they’re sitting at first in the East.

Keep improving execution and stay healthy… this is the way.

 

[Steve102]

To be fair, our WRs are making some great catches. Maye throws a great ball, but the catches that Diggs, Boutte, and Pop have made have in the last 3 weeks have been elite.

That's true. My point is just that all of a sudden there's a QB who raises the level of guys around him and suddenly the OL isn't as bad and the WRs aren't worst in the league either.

 

[maust]

Not for the first time today it occurs to me we really do need a sarcasm font and a symbol that denotes *the following is posted ironically/sardonically*

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Not for the first time today it occurs to me we really do need a sarcasm font and a symbol that denotes *the following is posted ironically/sardonically*

I would have to use it on 80% of my posts!

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I think that shows most evidently in the way the start the games, which is consistently a problem of coming out flat for the first several series.

When it is a 1st year DC and the team is in Top 10 in points allowed, after being abysmal prior year, I think it is possible to overanalyze the situation. The first few series in a game are usually scripted and practiced during the week making those series more difficult to defend. I would not worry about the first couple of series as an indicator of the whole defensive strategy or coaching competence.

 

[maust]

I would have to use it on 80% of my posts!

Probably upwards of 90% for me.

 

[Bill Lee]

We have the #5 scoring defense in the NFL, averaging 19PPG. Have given up 20 only twice so far: 27 to Miami, 21 to Pittsburgh.

If the offense can score more than 20 points, this team has a high chance of winning.

It's kind of a function of the strength-of-schedule thing, tho...

Here's what the AI machine gives me:



Outside of the Bills, we have been playing average (PIT) and far below average (the rest) offenses.

Next game is CLE with a tough defense with a bad offense. The following week is ATL with a tough defense with an average offense. Then TPA is above average on both offense and defense. Should be interesting to compare/contrast the results after this stretch of games.

FWIW, the same AI machine also says:



So by whatever infernal algorithm they are using to pick and choose 'data' we are perfectly average when compared to the other 32 teams.

I kinda accept that we're pretty darn average on defense. Our highs and our lows more or less balance each other out.

I kinda think Drake's learning curve means we were below average on offense the first four games but are rapidly improving week by week on offense.