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Idle thoughts - the "good loss" edition

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Nov 4, 2019.

  1. patfanken

    patfanken PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That was my initial reaction after the ravens scored their last TD and their victory was assured. It's taken me a few hours to actually figure how HOW a 37-20 loss can be considered "good". What keeps coming back to me was when I watched Bill's rather surprising reaction to the time the Pats were blown out a LOT worse by KC in KC in the "Do your Job" documentary.

    If you recall he said, "When we came out of the half, what I most wanted to see was how we responded as a team. It wasn't about winning at that point, it was about competing hard and playing for each other. I felt that if we could do that, I could work with that and build off it. So while the 2nd half was even worse than the first on the scoreboard, I liked the compete level I saw. Everyone was playing hard for each other. " (paraphrased)

    So while the rest of the football world saw that loss as the end of the Pat's dynasty, Bill saw what he needed to see from the effort he saw, rather than the results. That was in 2014, and 4 superbowls and 3 wins later. So when the Pats fell behind 17-0 with the offense running about 5 plays and the defense getting demolished for 3 long drives, I couldn't help think back to that clip and start to look at the effort more than the outcomes.

    The very fact that the Pats got back into the game and had their chances to win going into the 4th quarter, speaks for itself. The defense sucked it up and started to stop the Raven offense with some regularity. The offense after the first quarter actually looked the best it has been, imo. Balls were getting throw down field to open receiver. Pass protection actually improved as the game went on. RB's actually averaged 4.3 ypc. Things got better on the offense

    I really think this team needed a kick in the pants, and this was a good one. TONS of "teaching points" for them to work on over the next 2 weeks. TONS! The most disappointing things were the lack of execution/discipline. How many time did the Pats give the Ravens big first downs because of penalties. How many times did the offense have drives killed because of penalties. For a while it seemed we were looking like the f*cking Browns out there. Not really, but those penalties were just so frustrating. But more on that later.

    The thing is that we deserved to lose last night. The Ravens, for a lot of reasons, were the better team. (home game, 2 weeks to prepare, facing a new and unique offense for the first time) But make NO mistake about it. When and if there is a rematch of this game in January. BELIEVE me, I will be betting the HOUSE on a Patriot win. Lets talk about why in the breakdown.

    1 General offensive thoughts - The key one is that for the 3rd week in a row I saw the offensive operation improve, even though too often they were their own worst enemy with untimely penalties, drops, and the one fumble. We KNEW early on that this would be the case with all the loses, changes and disruptions along the OL, WR. and TE. So while the Ravens defensive plan was OUTSTANDING in the first quarter and most of the first half. It seemed to me that the offense was moving much more smoothly in the 2nd half, even though it didn't show up much on the scoreboard.

    2. QB - Overall, I thought this was Brady's best game of the year. He threw a LOT of good passes, but I was most impressed with his movement in the pocket. This was the most "agile" he's looked in the pocket in my opinion. If I had a complaint was the ball didn't go downfield as much as I liked. James White was the only guy who averaged more than 10 ypc and he only had 2 catches on 3 targets. Also a negative was the pick. I thought Brady threw it to the right guy, but Brady needed to throw it underneath the coverage, rather than overthrowing it. Nitpicking maybe, but that how I saw it.

    3. OL - Horrible at the start of the game, but much better as the game went on. Part of the problem was the Ravens game plan. They had a good one and were pretty much on what the Pats wanted to do. Newhouse will be the easy target of course, but while he looked fooled a lot in the first half, he looked much more solid as the game wore on. But CLEARLY life along the OL will be better when Wynn returns after the Eagle game. But is it just me, or did you think that overall Brady had more time to throw the ball than in recent games.

    4. RB - Sony ran for over 4 ypc, and had a nice catch and run, but after a route that Brady didn't seem to like, he never saw the field the rest of the night. That bears watching. It turns out that James white tripping over Cannon's leg cost the Pats a key TD early in the 2nd half. It was a well conceived play that SHOULD have been successful. Burkhead got some run and looked OK

    5. WR/TE''s - Sanu looks like he's fitting in well. The only negative I saw was the drop on the deep seam pass. That WOULD have been a big play if executed. Edelman was a GREAT game given that he was being doubled all night. But like Sanu he made ONE error and it was very costly. Watson had 4 catches and a nice Play Action seam pass, and he also did a pretty good job pass blocking when it looked like Baltimore was going to blitz.

    6. General defensive thoughts - I hated the start ,was liking the middle, and not impressed by how they played at the end. Back in 2001, one of the key factors in the Pats superb0wl win over the Rams, was the fact they they had played them in their 10th game (a loss). What they gained was an understanding of the speed of the "greatest show on turf", and how to contain it. Same goes here. If or when the these two teams meet again, the Pats will not only have a better "feel" for Jackson's speed, but also for the unique offense they run.

    They also have 2 weeks to rekindle that hunger and get back their swagger. The boogeymen have been humbled. At this point in the season, that's not a bad thing.

    7. Front Seven - Not their best game. But that goes without saying. They just had too many plays where CLEARLY assignments were not being adhered to and chunk plays resulted. But as the game rolled on it DID get better, but after they seemed to get things back under control in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, they couldn't get off the field on third down in the 4th and the Ravens just ate up clock because of it. They'd play pretty good defense on the first 2 downs, and allow first down. A lot of this falls on the LB's who often had TE's they couldn't cover on short routes.

    KVN was credited with 6 tackles and Collins with 4, but for the most part, the most impactful front 7 players the Pats had for the first 8 games, were practically invisible last night, at least to my eyes. I saw at least one play where Hightower took the wrong gap and opened up a big hole for a long run.

    8. Secondary - I was kind of surprised to see that Jackson only threw for 163 yds last night. It seemed like a lot more. So while I'm not sure if the secondary hit all their option assignments correctly, as a pass defense they did fine. There was rarely any Raven running open, and most of the catches they DID make where heavily contested. So THEY were consistent in their play.

    9. Raven's thoughts -

    a. I was really impressed by Jackson. He it seemed like he made a TON of very tough completions on 3rd down, usually under pressure and into very tight windows. He's legit no doubt. However for those who would NOW like to opine that we should have taken him at 31 in 2018, that would have been a mistake for 2 reasons (at least). 1. you would have had to build an entirely new offense around his skill set, just like the Ravens did, and the Pats would have never done. Secondly, even if they HAD drafted him, he'd have never seen the field. Brady is STILL heads and shoulders ahead of him as a QB who can lead you to a Superbowl That being said, after a 2 or 3 year apprenticeship in the Pats system, I would have LOVED to see what would have emerged. I think it would have been SOMETHING great. But it wouldn't have helped us win a superbowl in 2018.

    b. I hate the Ravens. I really hope we get them in the playoffs. It would be a serene pleasure to crush them and their fans once again.

    c. This is a really nice offensive system that is going to win the Ravens the AFCN. And it COULD carry them all the way to the AFCCG. But here's the thing. While the system is unique and new, defenses catch up to great offenses. Remember when Sean McVay's offense looked unstoppable. Well BB found a way to stop it and so have several other teams this season after a lot of study this off season. So while many will look with wonder on "the next cool thing", this too will have a due date, and I think it will be sooner rather than later.

    10- ST's - I thought the overall ST's were superb. KO coverage consistently stopped the Ravens inside the 25. They got a key TO (Kudos to the new guy). They punted well - Though we didn't see any of those field changing boomers we've come to expect from Bailey. PC was also excellent. Not that any of the kicks were challenging, but it seemed like all of Folk's kicks came off his foot well. They were high and more importantly straight. So far so good.

    Just a note: I found it interesting on the fumble recover by Bethel, the next closest Pats player to the ball was Cardona. That's really moving for long snapper.

    11. NFL notes:

    a. Ironically the Packers are going to have as many question to answer this week as the Pats, as they fell just as badly to a much WORSE team in LA.

    b. I missed the deadline to get my picks in so the computer picked for me. I probably was lucky that happened since 4 of the picks I was ready to enter, lost. So the good news is I ended up 2-2. The bad news is they gave me the Giants as my fifth pick. :eek: ;). I need a miracle.

    c. How great is it that Miami beat the Jets, and how PATHETIC it makes the Jets look. Good for Brian Flores. I think he's dealing well with this adversity. His team is playing hard. Shows he's building a strong culture there. I really liked him here.

    d. Why is it that Detroit, Tenn, and TB will ALWAYS disappoint you. Houston was one of those teams, but not as much this year.

    e. I didn't see the game, but the fact that the Browns lost to the Broncos with a QB who had never taken an NFL snap was horrifying. They might have one of the most talented rosters in the league, and they are wasting it. At this point just who CAN they beat. The only question now is going to be whether they fire Kitchens now, or at the end of the year.

    f. Nice to see Hoyer do a very nice job coming off the bench on the rode and almost guiding the Colts to a tough win, only to lose on a missed FG.

    g. Interesting note - THREE QB's named Allen all won Sunday.

    And good night. Any grammar mistakes or misspelling will be corrected by my editor....whenever Ian gets around to assign one to me. ;)
     
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  2. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    idle thoughts reaction, Ravens edition.

    1. No, there are no good losses. However, there are no good 19-0 rumblings before the Super Bowl is over. I mean, if we were 18-0 again, there would be inevitable ones... so I guess it's nice to have that pipe dream in the rear view. But yeah, losing is never good.

    2. Dang. Guys who have been in our receiving corps this year would CRUSH my 2012 fantasy league. What's that you say? Irrelevant? Eh well. At least they didn't cost us much mon...SON OF A [email protected]#$*&^!!!!

    3. Good morning, sunshine, this is what the good part of the NFL looks like.

    4. Lamar Jackson is smart to want to be a pocket passer, because running quarterbacks break. So, good mindset for the announcers to assure us he has. Definitely an outstanding QB in the style they're using him in, which is manifestly not a screw-everything, use-him-as-a-runningback fashion. One to watch, and one for NFL defenses to absorb, gameplan for, and spit out... in most cases. Don't order the annointing oil for a few more games :D

    5. Too small a sample size to say "this defense is nothing special." But they now have 2 weeks to come back firing and showing us that they are. That's the test of a great D (I've been singing this song for a while...) Not how they look statistically through the feast games, how they look after some slightly more scary opponents have had their shots.

    5a. Do great defenses allow 53-yard scampers? Imunno. Maybe "that one time." Definitely not on the regular.

    5b. Until they get back on the field and shut us up, say snarky sh1t rookie fans say. "More like the boogermen" would be utterly appropriate. It's either true, or prove it's not. And yes I do like the relative anonymity that online fanhood offers.

    6. Any time BB was supposed to respond to a zero blitz and it worked, that's what you do the Pats on a zero blitz. CHECKMATE mothaf****. Now if what the Pats did against a zero blitz NEVER worked, who really won those downs... Um, yeah, that's bullsh1t. But say that to a drunk fan of an opposing team (and then tell them we all know the refs will give us the games that count). Remember, it's one loss. We still live in everybody's head rent free year-round.

    7. Ken's much better at this. But daylight savings somehow made me wake up at like 4:30
     
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  3. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar In the Starting Line-Up

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    As usual, great stuff Ken, thanks. I don't believe there's no such thing as a good loss, but a loss like this can be the equivalent to a good punch in the mouth and used as motivation going forward. There's certainly nothing wrong with being forced to eat a little bit of humble pie to make you refocus on what's important. Besides, Baltimore is a good team and Lamar Alexander is a good Qb. He better learn how to stay in the pocket though or he'll be just another in a long line of great running QB's that shined very brightly for a very short time.
     
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  4. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Kudo's as usual Ken.. great job.

    Couple of observations:

    Lamar Jackson is better than advertised, he seems more in control of himself and has pretty good pocket presence.. overall the Ravens have improved dramatically in week 9, but there is a long way to go.

    The O Line without Andrews, Wynn + Develin and Gronkowski is no where close to where it should be, not sure even with Wynn coming back it will make a huge difference...

    Offensively thought they looked ok, but turnovers did not help the cause.. Edelman fumble?? Been a long time since that happened. Brady's int??

    The inability to stop the run game, we usually take away the opposing teams strength.. did not see that last night.

    The value of having more than one decent TE was evidenced last night, not only from a blocking standpoint, another offensive weapon..

    Still think that Brady was mostly focusing on Sanu & Edelman last night with a sprinkling of Watson. Dorsett was dinged, do not recall Meyers name called. Is that too predictable??...

    May take a couple of days to get over this, but will move on as will the Pats.. they have two weeks to heal a couple of injuries and work on a couple of things..

    On to some rest, then Philadelphia...
     
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  5. luuked

    luuked Pro Bowl Player

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    I completely agree with this.

    The defense was definitely not ready for the speed and all the bells and whistles the Ravens put together in their first 2-3 drives on offense. But honestly I am not even sure you can be ready for it until you have actually experienced the speed and the stress run options put on you as DE or LB. Especially as flawlessly executed as yesterday for the most part.

    So the defense getting settled and finding ways to turn this from a "total blowout" situation into a game where they were able to stop them for 3-4 straight drives and then required Lamar Jackson to be accurate and mistake free on 3rd and 4th downs was good to see.

    Yeah they gave up those conversions but it required perfectly thrown 50/50 balls to your TE, a pick play and getting your #3 TE on the move catching the ball to actually succeed. It worked for the Ravens yesterday but he won't have completely clean games all the time.

    The addition of Sanu to the offense is huge because as some have been trying to point the real issue was that Brady didn't have another dependable option inside. If we can keep players healthy things will look substantially different in a month when we will be talking about the offense.

    Again. I completely agree. The only really disappointing thing to me about yesterday was not that we gave up that many points or only scored so many but all the unforced errors. Whether that is Calhoun turning a FG into a TD on 4th & 3, neutral zone infractions, turnovers on offense or hands to the face penalties on 3rd down this is just not a way you will have any success against better opponents. You are cutting into your own margin of error way too drastically.

    Take the Calhoun jump away, make White not trip over his lineman and the score turns from 13:17 to 17:13 with us getting the ball after halftime. The way the offense was driving before Jules coughed it up it could have been 24:13 which would have changed the approach of the Ravens dramatically.

    I am not trying to make things look better than they were the point here is just how much just a handful unforced errors changed the game.

    The thing I want to point out again and again. The Pats played the entire game from a single personnel formation: 11. They don't seem to be able to play anything else much right now with all the OL protection issues going on and injuries going on. We will see on the A22 but I wouldn't to be shocked if we didn't have too many players going out into patterns for most of the day but stay in to help with protection.

    Once we can slip back into being a chameleon again and changing personnel and approaches between and within drives our offense will look a lot closer to what we are used to than what this is now.

    I really don't want to read too much into this because multiple players had disconnects with Brady yesterday (Dorsett reading the leverage differently than Brady on the full blitz that turned into that BS intentional grounding, Sanu on the deep pick and a deep attempt on the first drive not exactly finding the ball where he expected it to be and then Michel on that one sideline route).

    Similarly with no huddle being run it seemed to make more sense to get White/Burkhead involved. When the Pats caught the Raven with dime (or beyond) on the field they punished that with Michel a few times.

    That was Watson not Sanu.

    Ultimately this is where they need to put the screws on. The first 2-3 drives the Ravens were completely bullying them around. If you can't stop the run against a one dimensional team like the Ravens even when having heavier personnel on the field you will not get far.

    He made all the throws yesterday accurately and in a very calm manner. That being said the Pats made it too easy for him by not being able to stop the run. If you want to beat him you need to put some stress onto him as a thrower by having him pass the ball much more often than 17 times and also from 3rd & long.

    The more often he actually has to execute the bigger the chance to expose his limitations as a passer. The Ravens played the game yesterday on their own terms and a full BYE week of prep work paid off. Hats off to that performance but to me that is as representative of Lamar as a passer as the games where he misses wide open players. He is very inconsistent but you have to give him the chance to show that.
     
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  6. luuked

    luuked Pro Bowl Player

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    I said it above but I will say it again. The team offense is absolutely predictable right now because for a variety of reasons all related to pass protection and injuries they played the entire game from the same personnel grouping. ALL GAME (!!).

    The BYE is coming at the right time to get some people healthier, coach others up and look forward to Wynn/Harry actually returning and making the offense more sustainable and diverse.
     
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  7. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    —I’ll wait to hear from film review, but I suspect Jamie Collins was back to his old rogue ways, at least for one game.

    —Did they use the same personnel group the entire game (apart from rotating RBs)? That seems weird. Did Meyers see the field.

    EDIT: @luuked confirms they did. Even with injuries I find that puzzling.

    Anyway, at the end of the day you have to be able to stop the run. Nothing works if you don’t.
     
  8. robertweathers

    robertweathers PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Everybody was out of position in the 1st qtr. Collins did make a tackle while being responsible for a lane. I'll stop short of saying he was free lancing. Everyone was flying around doing their own thing that 1st qtr
     
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  9. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    As far as around the league/division goes, good for Buffalo, halfway point of the season and they can still say they have a reasonable shot at winning the division. Been a long time for them to be able to say that.

    And on the flipside, the Jets. The Bills are looking pretty good, and the Dolphins have about 80 draft picks and unlimited cap space coming up. If the bills and dolphins have quarterbacks, they should be in decent shape for the foreseeable future. The Jets seem like they’re at the bottom of the barrel again.
     
  10. masterbouncer

    masterbouncer On the Roster

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    My 2 cents

    General:
    The Ravens generate quite some missmatch vs the Pats by the way they play football with Lamar. He is good, he has some strengths that shows some weaknesses of the actually quite good Pats D#.
    The Pats D# is more built for the passing game rather than the oldschool running game all the time, if you can't stop them they will run all over you and eat up the clock as they like, that's what the Ravens did most part of the game.

    Offense:
    The Pats moved the ball well with open field however as soon as they are in the RZ the dynamic gets a bit out of the game with less space to play around (obviously). McDaniels might consider to open up his playbook a bit more in the RZ to be less predictable. Unfortunatelly also Brady is part of the "problem" because he is going mainly to the trusted wappons only and we do not have much left of those trusted Brady guys. Edelman was consistnatly double-covered all day, most probably Watson in the RZ too.
    Quite disappointed they didn't used Meyers at all, he was in for one freaking snap, so the Pats are making it easy to defenders if only use the same formation all day long. But Dorsett was also not involved much. At least in the RZ I would have expected to use Meyers at least one or two times as he has shown some ability for contested catches. Think they should have explored this more with the Ravens DBs as Edelman was also dc through the game.

    The OL was okey-ish but far away from really great pass protection, was wondering on the first 2-3 drives why BB hasn't given Newhouse some TE help as he is constantly beaten on the outside by pass-rushers (on every game). A TE chip a day keeps the Doctor (for Brady) away. Later in the game they gave him some help but the Pats were already down by 17 at that point in time and punted 2-3 times.

    The run game was not bad, also Michel has had some good runs, though far away from what he could do with a propper O-Line.

    Still the offense seems to predictable, OL, the WRs have to do better and RBs in the passing game too, but Brady and McDaniels have also to lose it up a bit. Hope after the bye Harry and Meyers will be involved more in the passing game also to keep Edelman and Sanu fresh. Sanu is really an upgrade but again use them all a bit more.

    On the Brady INT I think he was rushed up the middle (Karras or Mason?) not sure if he didn't threw that from the back foot or was even hit when he released the ball. But yeah still not necessary to force the ball down the field when you were actually moving the ball pretty well.

    The O didn't really helped the D# with the turnovers and the left points on the field.

    D#

    Oh boy, the first quarter was bad. From live game I have seen at least Roberts, Hightower, Bentley and Van Noy hitting the wrong gap as they tried to anticipate to aggressively and man were they burned by the Ravens.
    As already stated the Ravens show some great missmatch with this D#. The Ravens have quite good OL and 3 TEs that actually can block and catch. The thing is, once the Ravens got up on the scoreboard it was tough to stop them as they can keep doing what they do great, run the f****ing ball. Lamar was never really forced to pass so their weakness was never really set up against our strength, it was actually the other way around from the beginning.
    During 2nd and early 3 qtr the D did well but at the end of the game they were gased by the heavy run load they received from the Ravens.

    The Pats didn't contain Lamar in the pocket, to often he was able to run straight down the field because the defenders tried to make a play instead of allowing him to run side to side. Simon seemed to make the best job regarding Lamar out of the pocket. Thats basically the main topic they did wrong, to often tried to make a play instead the basics, but its easier to say than to do. Once they were stopping the run the Ravens beat them often with the 3rd TE as it generated a miss match with a LB or Safety on the routes since Pats were focused on the run.


    The few penalties that got called on the Pats didn't helped either, but the offside-calls were all but one just bad and wrong calls. If you have a hard time to stop them those calls are killing you. Same is valid for offense with holding and false start calls, if you have issues to move the ball and get to some TD, those penalties don't help. Hope the pats can fix it.

    All in all, the Ravens did a great job and everything from the begining went their way, but at least no one seemed to be injured and finally a bye week where Pats can improve an get the guys back and more involved from now on.
     
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  11. patriot1136

    patriot1136 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Can someone explain that intentional grounding to me? I still am confused by it.
    Overall, the penalties were extremely frustrating and really hurt us, I hate seeing that.
     
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  12. robertweathers

    robertweathers PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Inside pocket/box, throw 15+ yards away from closest receiver- IG.

    Outside pocket/box - not IG
     
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  13. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Pro Bowl Player

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    One thing I kept thinking is that the Ravens were so amped up to win this they put a lot of their offense on display — and on film — for the Patriots to learn from. Which they will.
     
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  14. Fore2213

    Fore2213 On the Game Day Roster

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    I seem to recall this same kind of scenario after a dolphins team dropped a wildcat on the Pats. Last night seemed a little gimmicky. Yes we lost, but we all know we will be in the AFCCG again, and If we see the Ravens again, Bill will have what Happened last night, all figured out. We lose one every year where the talking heads say stick a fork in us......tisk tisk, they will never learn.
     
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  15. RelocatedPatFan

    RelocatedPatFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    A few thoughts of my own.

    1) Ravens had a bye, got a player or two back on defense and let's face it. They probably opened the playbook more than the Patriots for this match-up. that's not to say they exhausted their ability to surprise the team again/ But, after Q1, it seems the D adjusted and settled down. I thin ka rematch favors the Patriots - though they are basically even now in Wins/Losses as a tie goes to the Ravens (not sure what their schedule looks like)

    2) For the people saying there is no such things as a "good" loss, I submit to you a termed coined by Nicholas Talib, author of the book Antifragile. This is probably at the core BB as a teacher/motivator.
    3) I'd like to know why Sanu (EDIT: originally said Watson, thanks for the fix) didn't touch the guy down when Brady threw over his head for the interception. I know he was running full speed, but just a simple touch, drag of the foot or something would have marked the guy down at the 3 yard line. Guess I expected better from a veteran like Watson. Or maybe he just didn't see/have the time to react?
     
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    Last edited: Nov 4, 2019
  16. Kdo5

    Kdo5 Pro Bowl Player

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    I looked back the box score and was surprised to see Michel had just four carries. It felt like he was not used much in the game but four carries is really low for your primary back. There was one route he ran where Brady glared at him and I don’t know how many more snaps he received after that. Was he benched? Either way he seems to be on a short leash with Brady.
     
  17. Kdo5

    Kdo5 Pro Bowl Player

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    That was Sanu, not Watson. One of his few mistakes in an otherwise great game. And it hurt us too.
     
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  18. ohiopatsfan

    ohiopatsfan Practice Squad Player

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    The key will be how the team responds after a big loss. If they bounce back against a good but not great Eagles team, I can see a path to the SB. This team has a few holes but is still capable of going all the way. However, they don't have enough talent to just roll over good teams. They need to play mistake-free football to have a shot in the post season.
     
  19. UptownPatsFan

    UptownPatsFan Standin' Pat

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    We‘ll be fine.

     
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  20. p8ryts

    p8ryts 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    That was my same perception of Collins early on. A previous poster said Calhoun committed the infraction on the field goal attempt, I thought it was Collins. Also early in the game he did get caught not protecting the outside and got caught inside. I actually thought Bill took him out of the game for a while. Initially, the defense seemed frenetic, undisciplined. I think they were gassed in the second half.
     
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