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Idle thoughts - the DOMINANT ST's edition


patfanken

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Disclaimer: Normally I watch the game closely, but today I had a chance to play poker, So with a chance to get out of the house, play in a reasonably safe environment (masks worn, temperatures taken, only 8 of us, including the dealer, in a large well ventilated room), AND the chance to make some money, I watched the game with a lot less of my usual concentration. So apologies for any mistakes I might make below.

OK, my plan is to post a brief list of comments, but I've said that before and gone over 10K words on many occasions. When I do these, its an entirely organic process and I'm old so you know we are prone to ramble on. Here's hoping this isn't going to take over 2 hours to write. ;)


1. The good (and as is the case when you win 45-0, there will be a lot of these) So in no particular order.....

a. Raise your hands if you were kind of puzzled when the Pats drafted TWO OT's in the sixth round last April? I think that would have been most of us, right? NOW raise your hands if you are not surprised to see BOTH of those players (Onwenu and Herron) playing major roles at this point of the season. ANNNND that would none of us. ;). Now this 2020 draft class has taken a LOT of crap, mostly because of the absence of ANY production coming from our 3rd round TE's and PS kicker. BUT at this point of the season we are seeing MAJOR contributions from 5 of that draft class. (Duggar - 3rd in team tackles, Uche - 3 QB hits, Jennings- 2 tackles one QB hit- and as mentioned Herron and Onwenu. That is a LOT of production from a rookie draft that usually takes a year or two before we see results.

There will be misses from the draft, just like always, but for THIS particular draft class, it's turning out to be looking like a good one.

b. I couldn't help notice that when the game ended, it seemed to me that Bill made a beeline to Charger TE Hunter Henry. If found this odd since Henry had just one catch for 5 yds. He shook the kid's hand and patted him on the back and had something to say to him. Just sayin'....

c. This really IS a very good secondary. One of the most surprising thing to me was finding out that Charger QB Justin Herbert had 209 yds of passing. I NEVER would have guess it was as much as that. Until the 4th quarter I couldn't recall a pass over 10 yds that didn't have defender right in the receivers' pocket.

That's 2 weeks in a row that the Pats secondary has played at top 4 WR and held them to 10 yds per catch or LESS. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are top notch WR's. The kind we all wished we had here, AND neither had a scintilla of impact on the game. Just like DHopkins (the BEST WR in the game,) had no impact last week. So big thanks to Gilmore and Jackson for doing the heavy lifting on these 2 guys.

d. Prior to this week Herbert had 23 TD passes with just 7 picks, averaged over 300 passing yds per game, with a 66% completion rate. Against the Pats (at home) he add 2 picks, zero TD passes and a 49% completion rate. Not saying I wouldn't take Herbert off the Chargers hands in a NY minute given the chance. But there is a REASON Bill is now 30-5 against rookie QB's since he's been here. (BTW - interesting fact. Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith are 2 of those 5 :eek: )

This week Bill and his defensive staff turned the Best Rookie QB since Andrew Luck (who was also among the 5) into a quivering mass of melting Jello on his own field, DESPITE a no-name DL and LB corps.

e. Speaking about that no name front 7, they managed to CONSISTENTLY make Herbert very uncomfortable all night to the tune of 11 QB hits and many more hurries, Adam Butler continued to provide inside terror to his surprising late season run of excellence. I find this very surprising. We didn't see it earlier in the season to my knowledge. Only after he came back from an injury. I wonder what happened to have "flipped the switch" on that kid. Any suggestions? And have I mentioned lately that Lawrence Guy is the most UNDERRATED DLman in the league (and I will continue to say that until he finally gets his due).

Also someone who should be getting some more kudo's is Terez Hall. I mean this was an undersized UDFA LB we signed and CUT and re-signed to the PS in 2019, who has slowly become a really consistent performer for us. He not only tied Dugger as the #3 tackler this game, he more importantly has TWO pass defenses. I have thought that one of the must have additions we need to make this off season, is an athletic ILB who can play pass defense as well as LB. You know, a guy like....Terez Hall.... ;)

f. Speaking of underrated. I was among those who DIDN'T feel any concern when Pat Chung opted out when I found out we signed Adrian Phillips. I felt that had Chung stayed, Phillips would have beaten him out. And nothing in his play this year makes me feel any different. Today he led the team in Tackles with 12 as well as a PB. Many of his tackles came on short pass plays that were designed to produce YAC. Phillips rarely let that happen (along with the rest of the secondary). HIs ability to play LB (as well as Duggar) has allowed our defense to become much more flexible as this season has gone on.

g. Chase Winovich only had one tackle, but again he was very active in the pass rush with 2 QB hits and several hurries, but like Hall, what impressed me more was his impact on the pass game. His pick was an awesomely athletic play, but I also noted he had 2 PD's as well. Good to see our LB's getting more involved with the pass game other than pass rushing.

h. DHarris @5.1ypc again has shown a rare ability to combine both speed AND power. I can see him become in the very near future considered a top 5 RB in this league. That is if BB allows him to carry the ball 20-25 times a game.

i. Hey it's taken me until "i" to start talking about ST's. but they once again stole the show. They really deserve their own "good" list, they were THAT good. And its not JUST the punt returns that make it so. There were several ST's plays and players that deserve notice.

1. Gunner - maybe not having to deal with KO's has helped Gunner become the impact punt returner he's become the last 2 weeks. Today he had over 140 yds in punt returns as well as a ST's tackle. Making him likely to be the ST's team's player of the week. He also had his first passing TD and led the team in passing yds. :eek: IF he never turns out to be the 2nd coming of Julian Edelman, he will always have this week to remember. ;) Who ever the new ST's coach is, and I don't know who he is, deserves a pat on the back too.​
2. But there were others who deserve Kudos. Tony Davis who not only had the FG block that led to the TD that broke the Chargers heart, he had a really athletic and savvy play on a punt which kept the Charger inside their 5.​
3. Kudos also to the Pats KO coverage team that constantly kept the chargers inside the 20. And kudos to Baily for deftly kicking the ball to the Chargers GL forcing them run the ball back. I sometimes wonder why teams don't do that more often.​
4. It was a game where the Pats ST's simply DOMINATED a team that didn't look like they took ST's seriously. Maybe ALynn won't lose his job this week, but his ST's coach DEFINITELY should.​

j. The OL in general was good once again. Given the fact the Charger pass rush with Bosa is supposed to be top notch AND the fact you don't have your best OLman this season in Wynn again, they once again provided enough holes against stacked defenses to create 170 yds and 4.0 ypc of rushing (not counting the 2 kneel downs) They also provided Cam with good overall protection. (1 sack and just 2 QB hits)


2. The Bad (this will be a short list)

a. The passing game. - 2 wins and 2 games where Cam throws for less than 100 yds. That is a stat that is nearly inconceivable in this day and age. Christ, Justin Herbert just had the worst game of his short NFL career, was embarrassed in a prime time game, had an under 50% completion rate, and STILL threw for over 200yds. To make matters worse Jerad Stidham threw for almost the same amount of yds in just 2 passes, than Cam did in 19. :eek:

I think that plays that pissed me off the most was when the Pats had 3rd and 10 and Cam, with no immediate pressure, immediately threw the ball to a fairly well covered James White who was ONE yd down field for a 2 yd gain. . He never looked at any other receiver. It made NO sense. :eek:

b. I think that as long as there is a chance to get to the playoffs, Cam's leadership and running abilities make it clear that he needs to be the Pats starting QB. The offensive players love him. They follow him. He also runs that veer option look play very well. He really rides that RB right into the hole. But if they lose against the Rams AND the passing game is more of the same, then I think we need to give Stidham a chance to really see what he has before we go and plan for the off season. There was a reason that in a blowout game, Bill allowed Stidham to throw the ball a bit. And what he saw was a guy who threw the ball in rhythm accurately and to the correct receiver. Really cool to see Jared look off the LB opening the lane for Gunner. But we need to see a lot more of him to make an intelligent determination.


3. General comments

a. Coaching matters - Listen to the players echo the mantra we've heard for the last 20 years. "when we follow and execute the game plan, then we know we will win." Which is saying is that they BELIEVE down to their souls that if they can execute the game plan that their coaches present them with, they WILL win. These guys are telling us that they BELIEVE in their coaching staff; Which in my mind is the single most important aspect in building the kind of trust that builds winning programs, Granted that trust will quickly fall away if you don't win games, but Bill has slowly built that over the last 20 yrs, so when a player comes into the building they already believe it.

b. Nice to see Joe Judge come away with a big win at Seattle. Yeah he may be just 5-7 in an HISTORICALLY bad division, but it seems that his players are buying into his process, and it will be interesting if we see the Giants end up having a winning record in December. It may sound odd, but the Giant's road to the playoffs is a LOT clearer than the Pats.

c. Once again the Jets find a way to screw the Pats. :mad: Had they managed to win that game, the Pats would have had one less team ahead of them. Just so JET-like. I can't imagine what their fans think. Well I guess they will always have 2010 to warm their twisted souls. ;)

d. Well their were several very surprising results this week. The Bears lose to the freakin; Lions. The Giants beat Seattle. KC, NO, Minn, and the Colts just BARELY beat far inferior teams. So while the Pats will likely be an underdog this week against a team to be perceived as have far more "talent", maybe there IS a chance for a west coast sweep.


Well I DIDN'T finish this in less than 2 hours. I WASN'T brief. And I DID ramble on....a bit But it is what it is and I hope you both enjoy it and comment on this occasional offering of muddled prose. Good night.
 
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1. The good (and as is the case when you win 45-0, there will be a lot of these) So in no particular order.....

a. Raise your hands if you were kind of puzzled when the Pats drafted TWO OT's in the sixth round last April? I think that would have been most of us, right? NOW raise you hands if you are not surprised to see BOTH of those players (Onwenu and Herron) playing major roles at this point of the season. ANNNND that would none of us. ;). Now this 2020 draft class has taken a LOT of crap, mostly because of the absence of ANY production coming from our 3rd round TE's and PS kicker. BUT at this point of the season we are seeing MAJOR contributions from 5 of that draft class. (Duggar - 3rd in team tackles, Uche - 3 QB hits, Jennings- 2 tackles one QB hit- and as mentioned Herron and Onwenu. That is a LOT of production from a rookie draft that usually takes a year or two before we see results.



j. The OL in general was good once again. Given the fact the Charger pass rush with Bosa is supposed to be top notch AND the fact you don't have your best OLman this season in Wynn again, they once again provided enough holes against stacked defenses to create 170 yds and 4.0 ypc of rushing (not counting the 2 kneel downs) They also provided Cam with good overall protection. (1 sack and just 2 QB hits)


The importance of an offensive line cannot be understated. All one has to do is look back to this season's game against Denver, when the Pats had multiple injuries going in, plus another on the first drive. It's difficult to individually quantify due to lack of stats that skill positions have, but the tired cliche about games being won in the trenches still holds true.
 
Great thread as we have come to expect by PFK, spot on with the ST's adulation. As Patsfans we have become conditioned to the three phases of the game mantra and it was never more evident than yesterday.

Read somewhere that when McCourty ran back the blocked FG he hit 21.5 MPH... pretty impressive for an "old guy". Lots of layers to ST's and several heroes, Bethel, Montcrief .

Although his appearance was brief, Stidham looked good.

Gunnar, Gunnar, Gunnar + what else is left to say part of the changing of the guard in ST's...Lots of layers to ST's and several heroes, Bethel, Montcrief, Davis and kudo's to Jake Bailey.

O line was impressive, Joey who??

Cam managed the game well, but why can't he throw the short pass?? Still not convinced that he is the answer at QB.

Defensively probably the best game against what was considered a pretty good offense + a shutout, much to like. Butler, Guy, Winovich, Uche, Duggar and the D-Backs et al all played well.

Our rookies were obvious, do not remember when so many new guys were playing as well and as much as these guys have.

Bill seems to like 26 year old soon to be FA Hunter Henry a lot.

Hope that JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones injuries are not significant..

Yesterday was a good entertaining game, cannot figure out with the COVID-19 mess if they are staying on the West Coast or coming back and forth.. I suspect they are staying there, but cannot find confirmation.
 
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cannot figure out with the COVID-19 mess if they are staying on the West Coast or coming back and forth.. I suspect they are staying there, but cannot find confirmation.
Staying...but unknown if actually playing. It is dependent on the Governor allowing "large gatherings" or shutting down the state which is still very much in the air. Worse that decision can come at any time not allowing the teams or the league to address it such as moving the game to a neutral site, etc.

But hey, just relax...Goodell's on the case. (it's like playing Russian roulette by removing one round from an automatic).
 
Great write up as always. Your Idle Thoughts is pretty much my "comfort food" of post-game analysis.

1. To your point about limiting the YAC, I noticed a particular emphasis on hitting the WRs, and Allen in particular, pretty hard if and when they even targeted them in the middle of the field. I saw Allen get up a few times looking back at the defenders. They got in his head. Shades of 2001 there.

2. I wondered somewhat early in the season (prior to the Chiefs debacle) if BB was considering platooning the QB position, and I have to wonder if that's a wrinkle that could be coming if Stidham can show progress in game situations like he did today. Like many, I suspect Cam isn't necessarily the answer, but is Cam + Stid the answer? At least for now? It'd be a revolutionary concept in the modern era, but BB isn't necessarily allergic to those.

3. At 2-5, many people in this forum were calling it a 5-11 season. Arguably the hardest part of the schedule is coming up, but this is a team that has been able to compete with winning teams, and maybe more consistently than against losing teams. It's going to be a wild finish, and we've pretty much got to run the table to get into the playoffs. I've said it a couple times and I'll say it here. If the Pats run the table and Buffalo loses to Pittsburgh and Miami, the Pats win the AFCE. Just something to think about.
 
Staying...but unknown if actually playing. It is dependent on the Governor allowing "large gatherings" or shutting down the state which is still very much in the air. Worse that decision can come at any time not allowing the teams or the league to address it such as moving the game to a neutral site, etc.

But hey, just relax...Goodell's on the case. (it's like playing Russian roulette by removing one round from an automatic).

Or Kentucky Roulette. Just keep pulling the trigger until you get the cookie.
 
such as moving the game to a neutral site, etc.
I think VT has the lowest per capita and total COVID cases in the US (I know I should look it up, but...). Let's move the game to there. Anyone know if they're using the little bandbox of Centennial Field (4,415 capacity or so) where the Catamounts play next Sunday?
 
Pittsburgh
I don't have much faith in the scenario given the inconsistency of this young Pats team (and it would require a massive first round win in said playoffs making it even more improbable), but could you imagine the posts from Pittsburgh fans if they had to face the Pats in the playoffs...especially if still undefeated?
 
I don't have much faith in the scenario given the inconsistency of this young Pats team (and it would require a massive first round win in said playoffs making it even more improbable), but could you imagine the posts from Pittsburgh fans if they had to face the Pats in the playoffs...especially if still undefeated?

If they could actually read and write, it would be a feast for the eyes.

Seriously though, I love that scenario, especially if the Pats win and send them to 16-1.
 
I thought the best thing about Cam was improved pocket awareness. The planned runs are obviously important but he had a couple huge scrambles that were critical in keeping drives alive. Cam is clearly not a great passer but he is very effective at 3rd or 4th and shorts.

Penalties - did not understand why they did not call intentional grounding when Herbert hit his lineman with the throw. That results in 10 yards and loss of down vs what I think was only a 5 yard penalty which the Pats declined. The Pats lost out on 2 or 3 sacks with a late throw to nowhere by Herbert and I'd like a quicker whistle to reward the defense. While it benefitted the Pats I really hate defensive penalties on 3rd and long that result in an automatic first down like the hands to the face. Just seems way to punitive to me and another reason why it is so hard for defenses in general.

Seeing the kids flying around on defense was great to see. JC, Wino, Uche, Dugger all seem to be core pieces for the rebuild. On offense Onwenu rarely gets mentioned which is the highest compliment for a lineman. What a find.
 
a. Raise your hands if you were kind of puzzled when the Pats drafted TWO OT's in the sixth round last April? I think that would have been most of us, right? NOW raise your hands if you are not surprised to see BOTH of those players (Onwenu and Herron) playing major roles at this point of the season. ANNNND that would none of us. ;). Now this 2020 draft class has taken a LOT of crap, mostly because of the absence of ANY production coming from our 3rd round TE's and PS kicker. BUT at this point of the season we are seeing MAJOR contributions from 5 of that draft class. (Duggar - 3rd in team tackles, Uche - 3 QB hits, Jennings- 2 tackles one QB hit- and as mentioned Herron and Onwenu. That is a LOT of production from a rookie draft that usually takes a year or two before we see results.

It was easier to see how Dugger and Uche had the potential to be hits.

Dugger has been showcasing his potential for weeks now and Uche has started to do the very same thing the last couple of games. From my point of view Uche's most impressive snap was last week when he patiently condensed the pocket on Kyler without getting out leveraged, maintained contain while closing the distance and made Murray slide to the other side. In most previous years with other DEs this usually results in the QB breaking contain with his quick feet and going on a 15-20 yard run. That a rookie had that much awareness and patience is a sign of something good.

Now as you are saying nobody saw Onwenu (or Herron) coming. How quickly especially Onwenu absorbed the coaching without making too many rookie mistakes is kinda impressive. Obviously it won't happen but given where he was drafted and the level at which he is performing he should at least be mentioned as one of the rookies of the year.

I couldn't help notice that when the game ended, it seemed to me that Bill made a beeline to Charger TE Hunter Henry. If found this odd since Henry had just one catch for 5 yds. He shook the kid's hand and patted him on the back and had something to say to him. Just sayin'....

There was a lot of reporting in the week running up to this game how BB had been following Henry since his HS days due to being friends with his coach Kevin Kelley. That being said if the Chargers don't tag him again and the price is right...

Speaking about that no name front 7, they managed to CONSISTENTLY make Herbert very uncomfortable all night to the tune of 11 QB hits and many more hurries, Adam Butler continued to provide inside terror to his surprising late season run of excellence. I find this very surprising. We didn't see it earlier in the season to my knowledge. Only after he came back from an injury. I wonder what happened to have "flipped the switch" on that kid. Any suggestions? And have I mentioned lately that Lawrence Guy is the most UNDERRATED DLman in the league (and I will continue to say that until he finally gets his due).

The reason you didn't see it earlier in the season was minor injuries and the fact that he is mostly a passing down player. Earlier in the season we were unable to stop the run head on and got ourselves into much fewer obvious passing third downs than we are doing now. The key to our defense stabilizing and playing now two games in a row on high level is that they finally found the right mix against the run on early downs which works as a multiplier because it puts us exactly into the positions we want to be in with a very talented and deep secondary and solid outside (Winovich, Uche) and inside pass rush (Butler).

Speaking of underrated. I was among those who DIDN'T feel any concern when Pat Chung opted out when I found out we signed Adrian Phillips. I felt that had Chung stayed, Phillips would have beaten him out. And nothing in his play this year makes me feel any different. Today he led the team in Tackles with 12 as well as a PB. Many of his tackles came on short pass plays that were designed to produce YAC. Phillips rarely let that happen (along with the rest of the secondary). HIs ability to play LB (as well as Duggar) has allowed our defense to become much more flexible as this season has gone on.

Am not sure that is a fair comparison. While Phillips has had a good season and at times even took on tackles at the LOS I think there is a reason why he rarely is used on TEs whereas Chung often got that matchup in the past. To me Chung plays with more size than Phillips. I think it is Dugger who is profiting from Chung opting out and not Phillips.

It was a game where the Pats ST's simply DOMINATED a team that didn't look like they took ST's seriously. Maybe ALynn won't lose his job this week, but his ST's coach DEFINITELY should.

Taking ST seriously is what it all boils down to me. And this game will be a reminder to everyone next summer during the annual tradition which is making space for camp binkies by cutting ST-only contributors. Even after 20+ years people don't trust that BB knows what he is doing by investing into dedicated ST players.

Yes, blocking FGs or returns have big aspect of luck in them but you gotta put yourself into a position to execute on that luck.

I think that plays that pissed me off the most was when the Pats had 3rd and 10 and Cam, with no immediate pressure, immediately threw the ball to a fairly well covered James White who was ONE yd down field for a 2 yd gain. . He never looked at any other receiver. It made NO sense.

????

It made all the sense in the world because the playcall was a screen. Cam literally can't look at other receivers because there are linemen already running down the field. His pass was high -- which didn't help -- but the Chargers had that one sniffed out and it would have gone nowhere close to the 11 yards needed to convert for a first down.

If anything we should talk if Cam should have just downed the ball into the dirt like Brady did so often just to avoid any risk on a dead play. He did that well a couple times later in the game. But given how Byrd and also Moncrief converted WR screens on 3rd and long last week I can see why he wanted White to give a chance.
 
Yes we did beat up on a badly coached team. But this is exactly the type of game where superior coaching should come into play, and it did. BB still has one of the best coached teams in the NFL. Great team play produced that 45-0 shutout.

My game balls go to Cam Newton and Gunner Olszewski. I never thought a punt returner would turn out so impactful in a game. Defense as a unit consistently pressured and confused Herbert. Good to see.
 
b. I couldn't help notice that when the game ended, it seemed to me that Bill made a beeline to Charger TE Hunter Henry. If found this odd since Henry had just one catch for 5 yds. He shook the kid's hand and patted him on the back and had something to say to him. Just sayin'....
Thanks for the write up. Second time I read something about the Chargers TE, who will be a FA. I tend to believe BB found his man. Hmmm, not any Poker comments.
 
You didn't mention if you did well in poker?
 
Thanks for your write up Patfanken, as usual very informative.

I maybe in the minority but I also thought Bentley had a decent game. As other posters have said if he sticks to certain plays and role within the defence he can be a positive. Also thought that a couple of Cams throws were low again , dont know if this was supposed to protect the receiver from getting hit but it has happened in a few games now ?
 
Another great write up. Thanks for the insights Ken.
 
As other posters have said if he sticks to certain plays and role within the defence he can be a positive.
That's the missing element that the "drafting solves all ills/must have "top" players at every position/BB cant draft" posters won't ever admit: that role players have and always have had significant contributions to BB coached teams.

When injuries (and COVID this year) force guys into roles they're not good at - yes, it shows, but similarly when they are placed in roles they can be successful in as part of a full team - they often shine. (many times shining themselves into a new contract with a new team that they subsequently fail with by being placed right back into a role they're not suited for)

Additionally, it's also why BB defers to veterans in MOST (not all) cases when he doesn't have enough on the field evidence himself in his system because there is a consistency in a designated role that can be counted on within the whole of a game plan.
 
Thanks again for a great write up. If the Patriots lose one or two more games they really should give Stidham a hard look. Not saying he is the answer probably not, but without looking who can say. Also he may give you someone for one or two years till you do find the answer.
 
One thing I noticed when the Bolts punted was that they weren't sending players from the outside to cover the punt. On the TD return there wasn't a Bolt player within 20 yards of Gunner when he caught the ball. It looked like the Pats sent their players inside for a potential block and the Bolt players followed them in. Was that a planned tactic?

Every year the Pats defense seems to get stronger and stronger as the season progresses, even when they have injuries. Speaking of which, I hope JCJ's injury isn't a serious problem.

Is it me or is Damien Harris the best RB the Pats have had in years? As Ken mentioned he has both speed and power. When he makes contact with a defender they get moved backwards more often than not.

I was critical of Gunner earlier in the season but that may have been premature. I don't normally judge young players too early, as it seems that many players take a while to adapt to whatever the Pats are doing, on both sides of the ball. Since I don't see them in college the NYFL is the first place I see them. That's why I've been slow to criticize Harry.

I keep hearing about a lack of talent on the Pats. The draft has shown us that players develop differently coming from college and there are plenty of more talented college players working at other jobs while less talented players are suiting up every Sunday in the NYFL. Some of those will even make it to the HOF. I guess my question is who or what determines talent?
 


TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
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Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
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