Idle thoughts: The 5 phases of draft emotions of an NE Patriots fan

[AzPatsFan]

With every pick I think most had the same emotion (not me):

Draft a WR! Draft a WR! Draft a WR! Draft a WR!

SMH.

Just where is the roster spot for a rookie WR? The Inn is full up and the No Vacancy sign is turned on.

Despite the numbers there is room for a good RB or two, I would think...

 

[mgteich]

Well this has helped me I hope its helped you as well. Comments as usual, are actively solicited

I disagree with much of this. However, it was helpful, as always.

BEFORE THE DRAFT
I expected to get a couple of offensive linemen. In addition, I expected help in a couple of other places, depending on where Belichick saw the need: DT, OG, RB, WR, DE. At CB, it was basically 32 or nothing.

THURSDAY
The draft seemed to be going as expected with the patriots set up to trade down with HOU or BUF as I expected, unless a top player fell. Well, a top 20 player did indeed fall. AWESOME!

FRIDAY
I had a really bad feeling when I saw the randomness of the picks. So many picks seemed to be from left field. I was getting the feeling that the GM's thought that the real quality was gone.

And then Belichick drafted a 4th-5th rounder. Oh well, I guess we needed a backup 2016 safety who would replace Ebner or Wilson. Belichick had already signaled the likelihood of trading out of 96. And then, we drafted a 5th-6th rounder to compete with Buchanan and Moore. ????

I was glad that we had no more picks on Friday.

BTW, I posted Friday night that we would draft a couple of players on SAT that we would think could have been drafted on FRI and all would be much better.

SATURDAY - 8 PICKS!

Well, first we drafted FLOWERS, a DE who could have been drafted in place of Grissom and indeed had Round 3 grades. This meant that Belichick really, really want help for the front seven. So much for us having a solid top notch front seven before the draft. Belichick followed up with Jackson who could have been drafted at 64, although I would have preferred a LG to a RG. OK, I was fine for the day. We had now had THREE contributors.

And then came MASON, our draft board binky to eventually replace Wendell (a C/G). And so came the end of the first four rounds, the picks that make the team. As a whole, I was fine with what we got. Obviously, the order was somewhat strange.
NT - starter
SS - backup safety and solid special teamer
DE
DE
OG
OG

AND THEN COME THE LONG SHOTS
Belichick is about 10-15% on these, which is better than anyone else. We usually bring in about 20 UDFA's a late round draft picks and 2-3 make the team.

LS CORDONA - a starter as soon as he is able to play for us
LB WELLS - a coverage linebacker who might have gone undrafted
TE DERBY - a one-year TE who might have gone undrafted

AND THEN
two players who were rated by cbssports as highly as Richards and Grissom. It seems that they should have a real chance to compete for roster spots.
CB ROBERTS - a 5th-6th rounder
DE ****SON - a 4th-5th rounder

BOTTOM LINE
2015 or 2016 starters - BROWN, JACKSON, CORDONA
likely contributors - RICHARDS, MASON, FLOWERS
less likely contributors - GRISSOM, ROBERTS, ****SON
PS material at best - DERBY, WELLS

 

[ausbacker]

It's interesting reading reviews of the draft. One thing that has always irked me is that it's generally too early to properly appraise a draft in terms of overall quality. All you can do is appraise a draft for filled needs.

I'm happy with the Patriots draft. The team filled two of its 3 major needs (DT/LG-RG) and added an athletic late round gamble to service its other major need (CB). The issue that you run into as a reader is draftniks always rate a draft on what they wanted the team to do opposed to what the team did. It's a take this player at this spot mentality. Frankly it's damn annoying.

Training Camp can't come soon enough. I'm eager to read the reports and get into some proper football.

 

[NormZauchin]

The fact is that the Jets and the rest of the AFC East have no answer to Joe Cardona.

 

[Canuck]

From what I've seen, the ones who do the draft lists, takes a player at their listed position and compare his abilities to others in the same position. I never seen them do highlights or very seldom mention special teams play. They do mention some who can return KO and PR, LS and Punters and Kickers. I think Belichick highly values special teams, so he rates players on their versatility, position play and special teams contribution. When asked about Richards, he spent as much time talking about what postions he could play on special teams then he did on what he could do on defense. A player with special teams ability can rate higher on Belichicks list then where others have them listed. So why did he pick Richards in the 2nd round? Hard to say but I think this is Tavon Wilson 2.0. Someone predicted to be a core special teams player with adequate skills to compete for SS. I think Belichick may be drafting players based on their special teams abilities. Draft lists rank Punters, Kickers and Long Snappers but not at the other special team positions. Maybe other teams draft players and hope they can play special teams but Belichick drafts players he knows can play special teams.

I found it interesting that Belichick also put Grissom through a tight end workout.

"No, we’re not trying to make him a tight end, but his workout as a tight end is about as good of a tight end workout as we saw all year,” Belichick said. “I mean, this guy can run, he can catch. If you didn’t know he didn’t play tight end, you would look at that workout and say ‘that’s a pretty good tight end.'”
I can see Belichick thinking, I like his defensive abilites but I like that he could be an emergency TE if needed.

Shaq Mason is a powerful run blocker. Maybe until he learns pass protection, he can be a blocking TE, similar to what Flemming did last year. If Flemming switches to Guard then maybe Mason can do the blocking TE role. Maybe he could also be a FB if needed. Who knows, maybe he can be a starting guard when season starts.

I don't think Belichick is that happy with Buchannon, Moore, Bequette and looked for hopefully an upgrade with Grissom and Flowers.

Cardonna pick has Belichick fingerprints all over it. He wanted him so he got him. Might be a good pick if he can play in 2 years time, but for now a wasted pick. I call this more a personal pick then a team pick.

Of the 4 remaining only Roberts intrigues me. Maybe they can turn him into a Malcon Butler version 2.0

 

[Nonentity]

I strongly believe that we would have drafted Ali Marpet at 64 if Tampa hadn't traded in front of us.

Excellent coachable player, from a small school, at a position of need (guard). He had Patriots written all over him.

Once Tampa took him, our board fell apart a bit - as mgteich said, there wasn't much quality left at this point.

So Bill then took Jordan Richards, a player he loved and didn't want to lose, and decided to wait and see how things looked at the bottom of the 3rd round where we had 3 near-consecutive picks (96, 97, 101). And with the Grissom/Flowers + the Cleveland trade-down, it turned out ok.

 

[Nonentity]

Peter King has a section in his MMQB column today about Ali Marpet, which I thought was interesting. I thought the rest of his column was apologetic crap, which is no surprise given how rarely he criticises teams, but you can't argue with the insider access he gets.

Pick 61, Tampa Bay: Ali Marpet, guard, Hobart. Not a lot of pressure on Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht in this draft. There’s the Jameis Winston pick, and the dangers of that. There’s the disaster of 2014 free agency, which included the pricey acquisition at left tackle, Anthony Collins, failing miserably and getting cut after the season. There’s the overall poor play of the offensive line … and with Winston being a fairly immobile guy, the reconstruction of the line took on added significance over the weekend. Tackle Donovan Smith came early in the second round; he’ll get the first shot to win the left tackle job. And late in the second round, Licht traded up four spots from his perch atop the third round to acquire the 61st pick. What would he do with it?

• THE UPSTART FROM HOBART: Robert Klemko tells the story of Ali Marpet, an unlikely prospect

Some history first. In the middle of the college season, the Bucs’ northeastern scout, Andre Ford, filed a report on a small college guard named Ali Marpet. (It’s a tiny college, really; it’s the upstate New York hub of academia, Hobart and William Smith College, shortened to “Hobart” for football purposes.) At this point, Licht hadn’t heard of Marpet, who, in one stretch last year, played Endicott College, Curry College, the United States Merchant Marine Academy and Worcester Polytech. No wonder anyone wouldn’t have heard of a player at the lowest level of Division III football. Yet Ford, normally a conservative grader, wrote this in his comments about Marpet: “He’s going to grow into a full-time starting player in the NFL.”

At the Senior Bowl, offensive line coach George Warhop told Licht his favorite two players were Smith and Marpet. At the combine, after Marpet ran a guard-best 4.98 40-yard dash, Licht texted one of the Bucs’ owners in the Glazer family—desperate for news on how the quarterbacks looked in Indianapolis—with news on the passers. And he added: “By the way, our favorite player here is Ali Marpet.”

Late in round two, as the Colts’ pick at 61 approached, Licht couldn’t bear the thought he might lose Marpet. “I knew there was a 95 percent chance he’d fall to us,” Licht said Saturday, “but I would have been sick if we lost him.” So he flipped fourth-rounders with Indy GM Ryan Grigson and moved up from 65 to 61.

On Sept. 13, 2014, Marpet played left tackle and blocked for quarterback Patrick Conlan against Endicott College in Beverly, Mass., with 1,725 watching. On Sept. 13, 2015, if all goes well, Marpet will line up at right guard and block for the first pick in the NFL draft, Jameis Winston, in his NFL debut against the Tennessee Titans, with 65,908 watching. That’s not too big an adjustment, is it?

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/04/jameis-winston-tampa-bay-buccaneers-nfl-draft/6/

 

[Brady6]

Personally, I add Easley and Gaffney into this draft class.

 

[Mainefan]

Kenfranken, you really captured the emotions of watching the draft--and thinking you know something. I watch it with charts and printouts and mock draft summaries, having gone through the Patsfans draft board with a fine-tooth comb, and become stupidly confident I know what's going to happen. Then, every time, I am utterly mystified. And I learn a lesson I should have remembered from every past draft: I am a knowledge-free observer, not a participant. All I can say to myself is that the results are usually quite good.

 

[dex13]

You know they say there ere 5 phases of grief - anger, denial, rationalization, depression, and acceptance. When you are a NE Patriot fan you are subject to similar mood swings, every spring when draft season comes to town. There is just no other way to get around it.

Honestly, the only times I really felt depression as a pats fan are three times in the superbowl (right after three specific catches) and the pre-Bledsoe years. Other than that, its been a good ride.

 

[patfanken]

I disagree with much of this. However, it was helpful, as always.

BEFORE THE DRAFT
I expected to get a couple of offensive linemen. In addition, I expected help in a couple of other places, depending on where Belichick saw the need: DT, OG, RB, WR, DE. At CB, it was basically 32 or nothing.

THURSDAY
The draft seemed to be going as expected with the patriots set up to trade down with HOU or BUF as I expected, unless a top player fell. Well, a top 20 player did indeed fall. AWESOME!

FRIDAY
I had a really bad feeling when I saw the randomness of the picks. So many picks seemed to be from left field. I was getting the feeling that the GM's thought that the real quality was gone.

And then Belichick drafted a 4th-5th rounder. Oh well, I guess we needed a backup 2016 safety who would replace Ebner or Wilson. Belichick had already signaled the likelihood of trading out of 96. And then, we drafted a 5th-6th rounder to compete with Buchanan and Moore. ????

I was glad that we had no more picks on Friday.

BTW, I posted Friday night that we would draft a couple of players on SAT that we would think could have been drafted on FRI and all would be much better.

SATURDAY - 8 PICKS!

Well, first we drafted FLOWERS, a DE who could have been drafted in place of Grissom and indeed had Round 3 grades. This meant that Belichick really, really want help for the front seven. So much for us having a solid top notch front seven before the draft. Belichick followed up with Jackson who could have been drafted at 64, although I would have preferred a LG to a RG. OK, I was fine for the day. We had now had THREE contributors.

And then came MASON, our draft board binky to eventually replace Wendell (a C/G). And so came the end of the first four rounds, the picks that make the team. As a whole, I was fine with what we got. Obviously, the order was somewhat strange.
NT - starter
SS - backup safety and solid special teamer
DE
DE
OG
OG

AND THEN COME THE LONG SHOTS
Belichick is about 10-15% on these, which is better than anyone else. We usually bring in about 20 UDFA's a late round draft picks and 2-3 make the team.

LS CORDONA - a starter as soon as he is able to play for us
LB WELLS - a coverage linebacker who might have gone undrafted
TE DERBY - a one-year TE who might have gone undrafted

AND THEN
two players who were rated by cbssports as highly as Richards and Grissom. It seems that they should have a real chance to compete for roster spots.
CB ROBERTS - a 5th-6th rounder
DE ****SON - a 4th-5th rounder

BOTTOM LINE
2015 or 2016 starters - BROWN, JACKSON, CORDONA
likely contributors - RICHARDS, MASON, FLOWERS
less likely contributors - GRISSOM, ROBERTS, ****SON
PS material at best - DERBY, WELLS

Not sure what you "disagreed" with on my posts, since I pretty much agree with everything you added. At any rate, I'm glad my post was "helpful"

I think all of us who follow the run up to the draft with any ardor fall into the trap of slotting where players should and shouldn't go. I guess that's part of the fun. But fun though it is, the problem arises when we take our ratings and those of all the other "experts" way too seriously, despite the fact we have just a small percentage of the knowledge the guys who do this for a living do.

Like I said, and you confirmed, if Bill had drafted Jackson at 64 and Richards on Saturday, EVERYO(NE would have smiled and said nice job. Instead they label Richards a major reach and Jackson a steal, when the reality is more likely that there are reasons BB felt he had to select Richards there that we don't know, and just as likely there are were legitimate reasons Jackson fell where he did that we also don't know about.

Like with every draft, time has a way of making it all seem better. About my only complaints now is that we didn't use any of our vast number of low end picks and UDFA selections to take a few shots at adding some size to the secondary even if only in a developmental way. One of my binkies the 6'2 Auburn QB/CB Nick Anderson was an UDFA signing of the Jags, and other was 6'3 former WR Tony Lippett and I don't know what happened to him

Just like over the last few years, there has been a size race at WR, over the next few there is going to be one just as big at CB/DB. Personally I'd have liked to have been at the forefront of that war. Instead BB is leading the charge into the declassification of the defensive back, so instead of DB's being labeled CB, SS, FS types, they will just be DB's playing all over the secondary. I like this too, but I'd still would have liked to see some size being developed since this year really didn't have any big CB's

The other thing that seems clear to me upon more reflection is that BB LOVES the numbers game and competition. He knows his roster and he KNOWS how few roster spots were likely to be open. He also looked at this draft as being very thin at the top and deep in average prospects and decided to simply play the numbers game and hope a few of these guys surprise him....and he doesn't care who. He had 8 shots, and I'm sure he is loving the opportunity to see who pans out. He knows that history has shown him and a couple usually do.

In the end, we lucked out when one of those "top end" talents fell to us in Brown. He will end up in the DT rotation and see 40%+ of the defensive snaps. Jackson is likely to get a full shot at winning one of the OG spots, but there is going to be a LOT of competition for from guys like Wendell, Devey, Kline, and Flemming, so Mr Jackson better bring his A game. I know you can't tell much about the offensive linemen (or anyone else for that matter) in OTA's or minicamps, but it could be inferred that if we do not bring back Connolly or bring in Mathis, that BB liked what he saw from his 2 rookies in those camps. Its kind of ironic that the ONLY rookie who looks like he's likely to win a starters job is Cardonna, but we have to wait for word from the DOD before he can even pick up his jersey.