Huge pressure on this year's draft

[Teenuh]

Well, with the Fish nabbing Marshall and the Jets getting Holmes, there is potential that both those offenses took huge leaps forward.

Meanwhile, the Pats -- not to criticize their approach to the offseason, this is a simple fact -- have instead opted to make a few low key signing and focus on their money on retaining their core FAs. This is a valid approach, albeit not a sexy one for fans.

However, what it does, IMO, is turn a huge amount of pressure on the FO to really nail this draft. By not being active in free agency, the Pats pretty much painted themselves into a corner that they need to draft:

OLB
WR
TE

And not only do they have to draft these players, they will need these players to be making contributions immediately. TE isn't as important if Crumpler can still play, but the second TE will still see plenty of snaps.

WR & OLB, however, should be spots where rookies are playing considerable time, if not starting. Of course, that is is no other moves are made. But if they aren't, the only way for the Pats to improve their starting roster is by nailing both those positions in the draft. I hope they're up for it ...

I really wish we would have worked something out for Marshall. Moss, Welker, and Marshall would be a dangerous combination.

 

[Deus Irae]

last I checked, the trading deadline has not passed and neither has free agency.

There are a lot of teams looking to dump a lot of players that just haven't done it yet because there is no cap for them to stay under.

The Pats are not going into the season with AD unless there are horrible LB injuries. Other teams are in the same position. Never before have they had the luxury of keeping unwanted players until the last minute because they had to be under the cap.

Look for a LOT of players to be dumped the end of August. Someone will snap up AD and benefit. Who will we snap up? I don't know, but there will be some, so to say the Patriots can only get players via the draft is incorrect.

You also ignore trades. Late trades the last few years include Cory Dillon, Ted Washington and Randy Moss. Let's not pretend these trades didn't happen late because they did. As of this date, none of those players were on a Pats roster, yet they were obtained.

Lastly, as far as pressure goes, it is the Jets and Fins under all the pressure. I still think the Pats are the best team in the divison, but will grant that it could be up for grabs. If so, one of Pats-Jets-Fins needs to come out of the draft stronger than the others.

But the pressure is not equal.



The Dolphins have only two picks in the first three rounds:
#12
#73

The Jets are in worse shape. THey have 2 picks in the first three rounds, and they aren't too good.
#29
#61

The Pats have 4 picks in the first three rounds, and they are pretty good ones.
#22
#44
#44
#47

They pick FOUR times before the Jets or Fins get to use their second pick.

If the Pats use one of their second rounders for a quality WR (pretty easy as Holmes went for a 5th rnd and Marshall for a pair of 2's, one this year one next), then the Pats will be the equal or better of the three and still have better picks that the Jets Dolphins.

If the pats draft poorly and only hit on half their early picks, the Jets and Fins cannot afford a single misstep - they must be PERFECT to keep even.

If the Pats his on 3 of 4, the Jets and Fins fall behind as they cannot match that with only two picks.

I'm a Pats fan (Pats fans are sometimes called homers here) but I'm not berift of thought processes.

I am fully aware that if the situation were reversed, if the Pats had two high picks and the Jets and Fins each had four, the same people who say the Pats are in trouble...would still say the Pats are in trouble. Even though the situation was exactly reversed.

Why is this? I wish I knew. In the case of DI and his ilk, he's just a pot stirrer. I doubt he believes anything he types. As long as he can brush the Cheetos dust off his keyboard and troll for responses he's happy. But some people are sincere in their belief that the Pats are behind the eight ball because their have 4 high draft picks, and I just don't understand.

1.) You're pointing to me specifically when I hadn't even posted in the thread. How cute.

2.) Marshall is a Dolphins draft pick, just as Moss and Welker were Patriots draft picks, in the sense that they were acquired via trade involving said picks.

3.) Pointing out that the Burgess trade sucked wasn't stirring the pot. Pointing out that the Seymour trade sucked wasn't stirring the pot. Pointing out that I understood the Hobbs trade but didn't like making it because the other CBs were unknown quantities wasn't stirring the pot, etc... It was pointing out what should have been obvious even to people like you. Unfortunately, you rabid homers would rather continually clown yourselves than admit that "your" team was screwing up.


Now, run along and stick your head back in the sand. Go back to your fantasy world where Belichick's never made a mistake, everyone in the world who's pointing out problems with the Patriots is wrong, and the Patriots will never lose another game. Just remember that even the Krafts acknowledge problems with last year's team. That Jonathan Kraft is just a pot stirrer, though.

 

[blackglass3]

Belichick doesn't see any fits in restricted free agency

Dissapointing...I was really hoping we would give Lance Moore a shot. I think the sky is the limit for him.

 

[Rob0729]

Let me answer for MLR and Robo: He doesn't know what he's talking about. We are in perfect shape now. Super Bowl here we come.

Huh?!? What's your response? The AFC East race is over, Pats already eliminated.

First of all I don't care what Andy Hart has to say. He tends to be over the top in his criticism of the Patriots even before this season. I'm sure that there will be more legitimate writers who say similiar things though.

Second of all, all I have said on the subject is that the Pats do not change their draft strategy nor have any added pressure while drafting. The Pats have one goal in mind - win enough game to get into the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. I never said they are poised to do that, but counting wins and losses in April is an exercise in futility.

Third, do you really think that the Pats didn't have a huge priority to get a pass rushing OLB before this week. Was it really the case that we were all set at the position until the Jets got Holmes and the Dolphins got Marshall. Seriously? Those moves didn't change the Pats needs one bit. My take last week is the same. The Pats' biggest need is an OLB who can pressure the QB. How would that change today.

Fourth, I don't think the Pats are all set. I realize they have holes and some significant. Unlike others, I will not criticize them until all the cards are played. If come preseason, the draft picks aren't showing signs of contributing and the Pats make no other moves, I will be far more critical.

BTW, Belichick said as much today in his pre-draft press conference that the moves the Jets and Dolphins made have no bearing on how he drafts.

 

[Marqui]

Unfortunately, you rabid homers would rather continually clown yourselves than admit that "your" team was screwing up.

But then we'd be "Chicken Littles"

 

[Deus Irae]

But then we'd be "Chicken Littles"

Just as you can like some moves without jumping into Belichick's pocket, you can dislike some moves without screaming that the sky is falling. In fact, that's where the vast majority of fans come down on this stuff.

 

[Mike the Brit]

last I checked, the trading deadline has not passed and neither has free agency.

There are a lot of teams looking to dump a lot of players that just haven't done it yet because there is no cap for them to stay under.

I agree with the basic line of your post, but wonder about this.

In years gone by, as you say, the cap would force teams to dump players. The question is whether they are going to do that later this year or not do it at all. If we're talking about Adalius Thomas (or Santonio Holmes) then the team would be doing it to clear out a malcontent and bad influence, but those are not the players the Pats look to recruit. Otherwise why wouldn't teams hang on to players -- at least until the cut-down to 53 makes for pressure on roster numbers?

 

[tombonneau]

Dissapointing...I was really hoping we would give Lance Moore a shot. I think the sky is the limit for him.

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not? But I think Lance Moore is a perfect fit for NE and would be great opposite Moss. Was really hoping they'd have made an offer for a second last year for him.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree with the basic line of your post, but wonder about this.

In years gone by, as you say, the cap would force teams to dump players. The question is whether they going to do it later this year or not do it at all? If we're talking about Adalius Thomas (or Santonio Holmes) then the team would be doing it to clear out a malcontent and bad influence, but those are not the players the Pats look to recruit. Otherwise why wouldn't teams hang on to players -- at least until the cut-down to 53 makes for pressure on roster numbers?

I think there are a lot teams holding players that they feel make too much for their worth until after the draft. If they get a player who can replace them, they will cut the player. If they don't, they will hold onto the player at least until they can get someone else in free agency. Most of those guys will be players that are unattractive, but there should be some who are worth picking up.

 

[crowell33]

I think there are a lot teams holding players that they feel make too much for their worth until after the draft. If they get a player who can replace them, they will cut the player. If they don't, they will hold onto the player at least until they can get someone else in free agency. Most of those guys will be players that are unattractive, but there should be some who are worth picking up.

This is what we are reduced to? Hoping someone gets cut (hopefully) from another teams 53 man roster, so that we can outbid the other 31 teams (hopefully) for that players services?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I still think the key to projecting winning seasons is not HOPING for rookies to pan out knowing thats a longshot and HOPING that JAGS who are dumped by teams will suddenly become studs in a system they never learned before its all simply HOPING on longshots
.....This team is HOPING all these things work out by September,I would not bet on it...give another year or so,maybe - this is a rebuilding year,some areas are fine but many are not.

This is based on Super Bowl aspirations that some have in here...not #6 seed aspirations where any team with a late push can grab a spot if close enough.

This team could be a team on the playoff fringe based on what we see now or they may not be....there will be no players tossed from other teams nor will they be rookies who suddenly make a huge difference,what we have right now as a team is a big nucleus of what we will have in september with a few new but unproven aquisitions thrown in

...we must be patient while this year fills a few holes and look to future success as these new additions develop into this system.

It will take time....getting back to being an Elite team could be a haul for a bit

 

[Rob0729]

This is what we are reduced to? Hoping someone gets cut (hopefully) from another teams 53 man roster, so that we can outbid the other 31 teams (hopefully) for that players services?

Isn't that what free agency is all about? What did the Dolphins and the Jets do this week? They "hoped" that a quality WR would come available via trade or being cut and then they traded for them. Do you really think the Jets went into the offseason knowing that Holmes would shoot his way out of Pittsburgh and he was going to fill their need at WR? I guess it is ok to hoping someone shoots his way out of town and then trade for him over 31 other teams is ok, but hoping some gets cut and outbidding 31 other teams is pathetic?

Free agency is a crap shoot. This year more than most because there were so many 4th and 5th year free agents that were made RFAs. Everyone focuses in on the Pats, but there are only about 10 teams that made any moves of any note this offseason thus far. That means there are about 21 other teams that are in the same boat as the Patriots this offseason or worse (see the Steelers).

 

[blackglass3]

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not? But I think Lance Moore is a perfect fit for NE and would be great opposite Moss. Was really hoping they'd have made an offer for a second last year for him.

Not sarcasm in the slightest. He shined when Colston was out in 08, and spent alot of this year dinged up. Undrafted FA, spent time on the Practice Squad, fought his way onto the roster. I would LOVE him here.

 

[supafly]

last I checked, the trading deadline has not passed and neither has free agency.

There are a lot of teams looking to dump a lot of players that just haven't done it yet because there is no cap for them to stay under.

The Pats are not going into the season with AD unless there are horrible LB injuries. Other teams are in the same position. Never before have they had the luxury of keeping unwanted players until the last minute because they had to be under the cap.

Look for a LOT of players to be dumped the end of August. Someone will snap up AD and benefit. Who will we snap up? I don't know, but there will be some, so to say the Patriots can only get players via the draft is incorrect.

You also ignore trades. Late trades the last few years include Cory Dillon, Ted Washington and Randy Moss. Let's not pretend these trades didn't happen late because they did. As of this date, none of those players were on a Pats roster, yet they were obtained.

Lastly, as far as pressure goes, it is the Jets and Fins under all the pressure. I still think the Pats are the best team in the divison, but will grant that it could be up for grabs. If so, one of Pats-Jets-Fins needs to come out of the draft stronger than the others.

But the pressure is not equal.



The Dolphins have only two picks in the first three rounds:
#12
#73

The Jets are in worse shape. THey have 2 picks in the first three rounds, and they aren't too good.
#29
#61

The Pats have 4 picks in the first three rounds, and they are pretty good ones.
#22
#44
#44
#47

They pick FOUR times before the Jets or Fins get to use their second pick.

If the Pats use one of their second rounders for a quality WR (pretty easy as Holmes went for a 5th rnd and Marshall for a pair of 2's, one this year one next), then the Pats will be the equal or better of the three and still have better picks that the Jets Dolphins.

If the pats draft poorly and only hit on half their early picks, the Jets and Fins cannot afford a single misstep - they must be PERFECT to keep even.

If the Pats his on 3 of 4, the Jets and Fins fall behind as they cannot match that with only two picks.

I'm a Pats fan (Pats fans are sometimes called homers here) but I'm not berift of thought processes.

I am fully aware that if the situation were reversed, if the Pats had two high picks and the Jets and Fins each had four, the same people who say the Pats are in trouble...would still say the Pats are in trouble. Even though the situation was exactly reversed.

Why is this? I wish I knew. In the case of DI and his ilk, he's just a pot stirrer. I doubt he believes anything he types. As long as he can brush the Cheetos dust off his keyboard and troll for responses he's happy. But some people are sincere in their belief that the Pats are behind the eight ball because their have 4 high draft picks, and I just don't understand.

Very nice post, spacecrime. Lots of good analysis, and many good points made about the draft, late trades, and cuts in August.

 

[Feep50]

It's obvious that BB likes the cards he's holding with #22, #44, #47 and #53 in a draft that EVERYBODY proclaims one of the deepest in years. So he's reluctant to trade any of those picks for veterans at this point, or hasn't seen the player available via trade that he deems a good value for high draft picks.

I see three glaring holes right now. Emphasis on glaring. Loss of Seymour,DE. Loss of Vrabel, OLB and WR.................................

I think we might all be thinking a whole lot differently next Friday night when BB makes his selections and moves that we all know he will make. One thing is for certain, we will all be arguing about those selections a coupla weeks from now, but we will be a LOT younger team with 4 high picks......

I think I will trust in BB again to make good picks and build a younger, better team that will keep us in the hunt for the forseeable future........

 

[Brady2Welker]

I agree that this draft has a huge implication for our team, but has there ever been a draft that was no-pressure? People lose their jobs for bad picks, every draft is high pressured for someone.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I agree that this draft has a huge implication for our team, but has there ever been a draft that was no-pressure? People lose their jobs for bad picks, every draft is high pressured for someone.

BB could pick 0-for 11 and still keep his job,he is one of few who can do that

 

[signbabybrady]

I still think the key to projecting winning seasons is not HOPING for rookies to pan out knowing thats a longshot and HOPING that JAGS who are dumped by teams will suddenly become studs in a system they never learned before its all simply HOPING on longshots
.....This team is HOPING all these things work out by September,I would not bet on it...give another year or so,maybe - this is a rebuilding year,some areas are fine but many are not.

This is based on Super Bowl aspirations that some have in here...not #6 seed aspirations where any team with a late push can grab a spot if close enough.

This team could be a team on the playoff fringe based on what we see now or they may not be....there will be no players tossed from other teams nor will they be rookies who suddenly make a huge difference,what we have right now as a team is a big nucleus of what we will have in september with a few new but unproven aquisitions thrown in

...we must be patient while this year fills a few holes and look to future success as these new additions develop into this system.

It will take time....getting back to being an Elite team could be a haul for a bit

I agree with a couple of things. I agree the Patriots are not going to count on Rookies to make this team better and they are not counting on FA to make this team better (at this point). Either or both could still do just that but I don't think anyone is counting on it for our success.

But from there we go seperate ways. You surmise that due to this we are in a rebuilding mod. I surmise that they feel there is a good level of talent on this team and the youth improving more than any accusitions made (made already, in the future, or in the draft) will allow the team to get back to the elite.

 

[Patstopia]

I think it is obvious that the Pats have given up. How can they compete with this awe inspiring off season.
I think they left this year off the plan, and by the time they realized they had forgotten, it was too late.
Bill probably delegated this off season to a trainee and went about his off season vacation and won't be heard from till after someone guesses on the draft picks and Bill reads a prepared script that describes why they made the pick.
Why , oh why, do I follow this cursed franchise.

 

[tombonneau]

Not sarcasm in the slightest. He shined when Colston was out in 08, and spent alot of this year dinged up. Undrafted FA, spent time on the Practice Squad, fought his way onto the roster. I would LOVE him here.

Agree 100%. He's one of those dependable role players you win championships with.