How much would you pay to keep Talib?

[JPsPats]

Id give him 7.5-8 mill with a lower amount of guaranteed money. If he stays healthy then we are getting what we paid for in terms of a #1 shutdown CB. If he cannot stay healthy we let him go without losing too much.

Sorta whats going on with revis, except for actually guaranteed money but a way lower base salary.

 

[Ring 6]

Using your argument, "Trade Brady" was the Patsfans.com position post-2008, as well as "Hell no, you don't trade Brady!" because 2-10 posters were spouting the "trade Brady" nonsense, and it's somewhere in the middle. That should be enough to tell you that your position is wrong.

Most people in the English speaking world understand the difference between "Patsfans.com" and "Every single member of Patsfans.com", so you've basically been tilting at a windmill here. It's not about how you view things. It's about you having been wrong (overbreath) in your argument and then continuing to argue from that position of error.

I read and read and read and can never get over the enormous amount of ignorance I see on this board.

 

[ausbacker]

I'd pay Talib a base of 4 million with heavy incentives reaching to 8 million per season. I'd look at a 4 or 5 year deal. Talib's best is magnificent however, I don't trust his body.

Do I think something like this will happen? No, I don't. This is what I would pay Talib.

 

[supafly]

Not meaning to beat a dead horse, but once again--my comparison to the Leigh Bodden contract comes to mind.

4/22 with 10 million guaranteed---5.5 million per year AAV.

As we saw with Bodden, if it doesn't work out, it obviously leaves us in a bad place, but not the kind of more extreme situation that we'd be with some of these projections that are being thrown around.

I would be willing to bump that up to an incentive laden deal that paid him as much as 6 million per year, for something in the range of 4/24...maybe 4/25.

Not a penny more, however. Not one penny. I don't think we can afford to gamble with these 7-8-9 million dollar projections, especially with the way the current CB market seems to be (collusion or otherwise).

 

[patsfan-1982]

DeAngelo Hall is 2 years older and has already got two big contacts in his career Talib has not had a big contract yet and will hold out for as much as he can get. but even with that said the market for CB's not named Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman, is 5 to 7 million per so 4 years 25 million sounds about right

 

[patsfan-1982]

Not meaning to beat a dead horse, but once again--my comparison to the Leigh Bodden contract comes to mind.

4/22 with 10 million guaranteed---5.5 million per year AAV.

As we saw with Bodden, if it doesn't work out, it obviously leaves us in a bad place, but not the kind of more extreme situation that we'd be with some of these projections that are being thrown around.

I would be willing to bump that up to an incentive laden deal that paid him as much as 6 million per year, for something in the range of 4/24...maybe 4/25.

Not a penny more, however. Not one penny. I don't think we can afford to gamble with these 7-8-9 million dollar projections, especially with the way the current CB market seems to be (collusion or otherwise).

I almost forgot how bad of a re-sign Leigh Bodden was the guy pretty much got paid for having one good game vs a rookie Mark Sanchez

 

[supafly]

DeAngelo Hall is 2 years older and has already got two big contacts in his career Talib has not had a big contract yet and will hold out for as much as he can get. but even with that said the market for CB's not named Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman, is 5 to 7 million per so 4 years 25 million sounds about right

I initially believed that Talib would be the kind of guy that would act selfishly when this situation presented itself last offseason. My thoughts were that he'd be the typical kind of guy who'd put money first before other factors.

Since then (right or wrong), I have changed my mind a bit. I have more of a feeling now that he may appreciate his opportunity a bit more than in the past. I also have a hunch that Belichick has done a decent job of keeping him and any ego issue, somewhat in check. We've seen Bill do a good job of handling situations like this before in the past, if there even was one to begin with--which we really don't know.

There were some hints of Talib buying into our system and being more of a team player (to me) this past season. This would include Talib's comments, Belichick's open praise at times, along with the report from Talib that Belichick personally called him to tell him of his Pro Bowl selection for the first time, along with his extra 500k bonus. While this may not make much of a difference if another team steps in and offers something significant, it probably won't hurt any to have that kind of respect (or perceived respect) from Aqib Talib, especially if a "sitting on the fence" situation occurs between offers next month.

 

[mgteich]

Your suggestion of 4/$25M plus incentives might get it done. It depends on the value and nature of the incentives. I would note that the 2014 cap hit is $4M.

CONTRACT STRUCTURE
4/$25M plus incentives for health and performance
signing bonus - $8M
2014 salary - $2M guaranteed
2015 salary - $4M
2016 salary - $5M
2017 salary - $6M

Not meaning to beat a dead horse, but once again--my comparison to the Leigh Bodden contract comes to mind.

4/22 with 10 million guaranteed---5.5 million per year AAV.

As we saw with Bodden, if it doesn't work out, it obviously leaves us in a bad place, but not the kind of more extreme situation that we'd be with some of these projections that are being thrown around.

I would be willing to bump that up to an incentive laden deal that paid him as much as 6 million per year, for something in the range of 4/24...maybe 4/25.

Not a penny more, however. Not one penny. I don't think we can afford to gamble with these 7-8-9 million dollar projections, especially with the way the current CB market seems to be (collusion or otherwise).

 

[supafly]

I almost forgot how bad of a re-sign Leigh Bodden was the guy pretty much got paid for having one good game vs a rookie Mark Sanchez

I respectfully disagree with you there, patsfan-1982. I don't think many of us felt that it was a "bad" re-signing at all.

At the time of Bodden coming here, he looked like a more than fine choice who was capable of holding down the CB1 spot. He had 7 turnovers (5 INT's and 2 fumble recoveries) in 2009, along with 15 passes defended and 1 touchdown.

Unfortunately, that dissipated rather quickly once he became injured, and he never played with us or anyone else again + had to retire. At the time though, he was clearly the best CB that we had since 2007, so there was a big gap there in 2008 which he properly filled.

You also have to take the overall CB market into account as well. Back than a "5.5 million AAV" contract over 4 yrs wasn't deemed as super-expensive. It was fair money for a starting CB1 in my opinion. There were plenty of 8-9-10 million dollar deals per year getting done, so we really didn't have a choice if we wanted to keep him.

 

[supafly]

Your suggestion of 4/$25M plus incentives might get it done. It depends on the value and nature of the incentives. I would note that the 2014 cap hit is $4M.

CONTRACT STRUCTURE
4/$25M plus incentives for health and performance
signing bonus - $8M
2014 salary - $2M guaranteed
2015 salary - $4M
2016 salary - $5M
2017 salary - $6M

You may be right. Obviously, we're just guessing in a range where we feel we may be in the ballpark.

For what it's worth however, my 4/25 offer INCLUDES incentives. I'm not sure how much we could get by with incentive-wise, but I think that something in the range of the early 20's with the ability to add another million on for a certain amount of playing time/pro bowl nod, etc--would be sufficient.

It's possible that my approximate 5.5 AAV (4/22) offer with an additional million or so per year would get it done. It's my opinion that if you're speaking of 4/25 straight up + incentives (that could take it up to close to 4/30) would be overpaying. That would carry it up to the potential of 7.5 million AAV. I think anything over 6 million (including incentives) is too much.

If anything, I would expect some of the projected CBs ahead of Talib in all of the outlets (Grimes, Rogers-Cromartie, Verner) to be worth something in the range of 6.5--7 million per year at best. By that thinking, Talib should come in a little bit beneath those projections, at least in my opinion. I would find the 5.5--6 million range to be more than fair, especially when you take his injuries and chronic condition into play.

 

[JPsPats]

Your suggestion of 4/$25M plus incentives might get it done. It depends on the value and nature of the incentives. I would note that the 2014 cap hit is $4M.

CONTRACT STRUCTURE
4/$25M plus incentives for health and performance
signing bonus - $8M
2014 salary - $2M guaranteed
2015 salary - $4M
2016 salary - $5M
2017 salary - $6M

I think thats still too low, its gotta be at least 4/27M-30M including incentives.

I believe he turned down a 5/25 deal believing he could prove his worth, and i would say he would want 1.5M+/year more then what he earned this season (5M).

 

[supafly]

I think thats still too low, its gotta be at least 4/27M-30M including incentives.

I believe he turned down a 5/25 deal believing he could prove his worth, and i would say he would want 1.5M+/year more then what he earned this season (5M).

Several things come to mind, JPsPats :

1. Keep in mind that you may be right. We're just throwing around projections.

2. I haven't heard one peep about specific offers that Talib received last year, aside from the fact that there were longterm deals offered by both NE and WAS. Where did you get these 5/25 numbers from? Do you have a source or a link, by chance? Even IF this were true, the 5/25 comes out to 5m per year AAV. There's a possibility that New England could offer something like 4/20 (the same AAV at 5m), with incentives that would take it upwards of 4/25. That is near my projection, and it may be enough at around a total of 5.75m--6m AAV if he reaches incentives such as playing time/pro bowl, etc.

3. Talib (and many others) may have expected the CB market to bounce back upwards this year. That doesn't seem to be the case based on Hall's deal, along with the fact that there may be collusion taking place between the owners. Any way you look at it, I don't believe that the CB market is going to be too much different than last offseason, so if Talib did in fact, want to gamble, he may realize that he doesn't have the options that he may have initially thought he did 12 months ago.

4. He proved that once again, he could not finish out a season. This is the 6th time in 6 season where that has happened for him, along with the re-occurrence of his chronic hip injury which has reared its ugly head for the past 3-4 seasons now as well. This aspect could in fact, take his worth down a bit...as opposed to bringing it up. If anything, it shouldn't change things too much. We also have to take into account that Talib has made the AFCCG in both years here in NE, so that may come into his decision, should he want to continue to compete for an obvious SB contender.

 

[Triumph]

Cromartie certainly had a poor season in 2013 by his standards but he has only missed one game in his career, and he has 28 interceptions and 88 pass defends in the last seven seasons. Talib over those same seven seasons has missed 35 games.

When doing your evaluation you have to account for the fact that Talib on average misses five games per regular season. What would you pay Talib for eleven regular season games is the questions that needs to be considered.

And, consider Talibs post season availability. Would be been able to play in the Super Bowl if NE made it past Denver?

Talib just hasnt been reliable.

 

[AzorianPats]

I'd give Talib a 2 year deal $6 mil each year with incentives, depending on how many games he plays that can go up to $10 mil.

 

[AzorianPats]

I wouldn't give Talib a 4 year deal. If he has hip problems now, and he's 25-26, imagine the problems he's gonna have when he's really pushing 30?

Give him a 2 maybe 3 year deal, and hope he stays healthy, for at least the big games.

 

[mgteich]

The third and fourth year are in the patriots interest.

Consider that a 4/25M including $10M guaranteed over the first 2 years is really a 2 year contract for about $14M plus patriots option for Year 3 and Year 4 (at $5M and $6M) in the example given.

So, 4/$25M is better for the patriots that 2/$14M.

I wouldn't give Talib a 4 year deal. If he has hip problems now, and he's 25-26, imagine the problems he's gonna have when he's really pushing 30?

Give him a 2 maybe 3 year deal, and hope he stays healthy, for at least the big games.

 

[upstater1]

I've already prepared myself to think of the Patriots without Talib. Someone is going to go after him at $7m-8m per year for 4 years.

 

[Danger Zone]

So my numbers for Talib:

Steal at 5 million
Bargain at 6-7 million
Great value at 8 million
Good value at 9-10 million
Ok/average value at 11 million

After having 24 hours to contemplate on it and comparing how far off my ceiling numbers are from everyone elses Ive decided to a) Stop talking estimated player' values with Wes' agent and b) Rethink how severely Talib's hip problems affect his value.

So revised:

Great value at 5 million
Good value at 6-7 million
Expected value from other teams at 8 to even 9 million.

I've already prepared myself to think of the Patriots without Talib. Someone is going to go after him at $7m-8m per year for 4 years.

I agree with your estimates of his interest to other teams. I am fully expecting he will offered 8m from other teams. But for that, yes, Id still pay him.

 

[Deus Irae]

Your suggestion of 4/$25M plus incentives might get it done. It depends on the value and nature of the incentives. I would note that the 2014 cap hit is $4M.

CONTRACT STRUCTURE
4/$25M plus incentives for health and performance
signing bonus - $8M
2014 salary - $2M guaranteed
2015 salary - $4M
2016 salary - $5M
2017 salary - $6M

Why would Talib sign that deal?

 

[ATippett56]

I've already prepared myself to think of the Patriots without Talib. Someone is going to go after him at $7m-8m per year for 4 years.

The Raiders.