How Many Points A Game Under Stidham In 2020?

[Nehalem]

Defenses will load the box and dare Stidum to take shots on the outside. Problem is, Pats don't have nobody that scares opposing secondaries.

Michel is going to have another rough year. O-line play should be better IF they stay healthy. However, they aren't talented enough to blow D-lines over and create holes consistently by themselves. Michel needs a FB to follow and they don't have anyone that's a dependable run blocker. Vitale has admitted blocking isn't exactly his calling card. Jacob Johnson is a below average blocker. I can't assume the rookie TE's can block until proven otherwise.

This offense is going to struggle.

And who did the offense have in the first 4 games of 2016 that scared opponents?

Chris Hogan?

 

[PonyExpress]

The concern for Stidham is his poise. In college 2018 he had Sam Darnold’s chuck & duck tendency, he did not show pocket courage. His accuracy was awful under pressure. In NFL preseason 2019 he reduced his 2018 happy feet a bit; some of same panic in pocket could be seen vs Carolina, the 3rd preseason game and only one he played in which opponent competed with something close to regular season energy.
What is interesting is that his mechanics and pocket presence were much better in 2017 than 2018. He apparently was connected with a QB guru in the 2017-2018 offseason who had Stidham working on playing from a muddy pocket. The strange result was Stidham showed up in 2018 and from the get-go was a worse QB: worse mechanics and worse pocket poise.
The hope is that the influence of the QB con-artist who wrecked Stidham’s senior year has been washed away and the Pats got the 2017 version of Stidham to mold from scratch.

 

[captain stone]

Stids will earn 1st downs with his wheels unlike the Tompa statue
Stids will prolong plays with his wheels creating deeper pass completions than Two Yard Tompa
Stids will look at all receiver options forcing D’s to defend all the field vs just concentrating on Tompa’s little pale buddy.
Stids will start season with a NFL FB and athletic TE options

In other words I expect the Pats offense to be better than Tompa’s last go. The bar was set so low it can only be better in 2020

If you think that 2019 Brady was a bad QB...wait until you see 2020 Stid...

 

[captain stone]

With a QB that posted an 88 passer rating. Imagine if he had a good season.

Stid will be jumping for joy at an 88 rating...

 

[goheels22002]

average 290 passing yards a game and 45 yds rushing per game

What? Sony Michel is averaging 63 ypg all by himself for his career. There's no reason to think that he can't deliver that again.

With Stidham under center, the running game will be featured in 2020-21. The backfield is fine - lots of experience (White, Burkhead, Bolden and Michel). Damien Harris will be a difference-maker this season. The fullback position was non-existent last year and is now in excellent hands with Danny Vitale and Jakob Johnson.

The key is the OL and the TE situation. The offensive line looks very good this year, and the depth at tackle is so much improved if reports about Yodny Cajuste are accurate.

TE is the biggest question mark for the running game. If the rookies can contribute in the blocking schemes and in the short passing game, the offense will be fine on the ground, and better than the 1700 yards they had in 2019. I expect this backfield (and the receivers) to deliver 2000+ yards.

 

[sb1]

Stid will be jumping for joy at an 88 rating...

Brady had the same passer rating last year as Jacoby Brissett. In the last 9 games when the Pats started playing good teams it was the same as Baker Mayfield.

That’s not a high bar for Stid to step over.

 

[sb1]

If Brady wasn’t even good enough last year to hit a 90 passer rating...what his rating be this year if he stayed? 80? 70? Worse?

 

[mgteich]

Brady had the same passer rating last year as Jacoby Brissett. In the last 9 games when the Pats started playing good teams it was the same as Baker Mayfield.

That’s not a high bar for Stid to step over.

Sure it is. I would be very happy if Stidham is a comparable quarterback to Brissette or Mayfield.

 

[sb1]

Sure it is. I would be very happy if Stidham is a comparable quarterback to Brissette or Mayfield.

Stid will have the reins on him like Brady did in 01. Imo that’s the real bar. He won’t run Brady’s offense nor should he. I expect a much improved running game and that will help JS4 like it did for Brady in 01. I expect he will still put up pretty good numbers while managing the game well and letting the defense do its thing. I want to see his poise under pressure. Does he have it? We’ll see.

 

[captain stone]

Brady had the same passer rating last year as Jacoby Brissett. In the last 9 games when the Pats started playing good teams it was the same as Baker Mayfield.

That’s not a high bar for Stid to step over.

It's high enough, for two reasons: 2019 Brady > 2020 Stid; and because The Worst WRs in Football are still here...

 

[goheels22002]

If Brady wasn’t even good enough last year to hit a 90 passer rating...what his rating be this year if he stayed? 80? 70? Worse?

Probably not. The offensive line's improvement plus Danny Vitale at FB would make his job much easier. It doesn't matter. Brady's only impact on the 2020-21 team is the huge dead money hit on the cap that could have allowed the Patriots to keep a defensive player or two.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Belichick does at the WR position as we get closer to the pre-season. I'm sure we'll see the usual appearances by veteran FAs and early cuts. Justin Hardy is an interesting FA - 73% catch percentage last year, and not a lot of wear and tear - a sure handed WR to fill Dorsett's role.

All this media crap about Brady and how heavy lies the responsibility on the current roster is just filler while we wait for camps to open up. Belichick, McDaniels, Mayo and the rest will have the team ready for the Dolphins at Gillette on September 13th.

 

[captain stone]

I'm looking forward to seeing what Belichick does at the WR position as we get closer to the pre-season. I'm sure we'll see the usual appearances by veteran FAs and early cuts. Justin Hardy is an interesting FA - 73% catch percentage last year, and not a lot of wear and tear - a sure handed WR to fill Dorsett's role...

Punt return experience also, both in college and in Atlanta during 2018...Don't know if he'll be somebody at whom they take a close look until maybe further along in TC; between Byrd & the UDFAs, that particular skillset seems to be covered, for now...

 

[goheels22002]

Punt return experience also, both in college and in Atlanta during 2018...Don't know if he'll be somebody at whom they take a close look until maybe further along in TC; between Byrd & the UDFAs, that particular skillset seems to be covered, for now...

You know, @captain stone , the more I poke around the roster as it is presently configured, the more impressed I am. There's depth everywhere and a solid combination of youth and experience at all but two positions (TE and QB).

All the focus on Brady is missing the point entirely. Hoyer is the single biggest weakness on the roster to me. I'd love to see the Patriots bring in a better backup and make Hoyer a coach. It's too bad Kaepernick at 32 has been out of the league for 3 years. That rules him out for me, not the social protest stuff - the Patriots know how to deal with distraction. Actually, I'd love to see the Patriots pry Colt McCoy out of New York (the Giants have 5 or 6 QBs on their roster.)

I am particularly excited about the gaggle of kids drafted in 2019 and 2020 getting a chance to contribute at just about every position group. Young guys are are all over the place on offense, and it will be fun to see Hightower surrounded by a group of young, versatile linebackers, especially Winowich, Jennings and Usche. Mayo is the right guy to coach them up. Dugger and JC Jackson in the secondary is also a great pair for the future.

If the TEs can play worth a damn, we're in business.

 

[Gronk]

What was last year, 26ppg?

I don't honestly picture the D being able to repeat the high turnover count. That's not about them being bad, or losing a few guys, it's just never been stat you can rely on year-t0-year even with the best talent. They scored a few TDs, but moreover got the offense extra chances (which they capitalized on at a very unimpressive rate), got them into positive field position situations, and bailed them out after bad drives. The defense may very well be very good to great again, but even the back half of last year we saw it wasn't durable.

So I'll give em 20ppg. They'll probably stack 30+ on a few teams, Stidham being more mobile might get them some plays Brady couldn't give them, and hopefully at least taking care of the ball to keep games close against teams that are clearly better. Over 16 games that's 320 pts, which put them middle of the pack which seems about right, if not slightly optimistic.

 

[Nehalem]

All the focus on Brady is missing the point entirely. Hoyer is the single biggest weakness on the roster to me. I'd love to see the Patriots bring in a better backup and make Hoyer a coach. It's too bad Kaepernick at 32 has been out of the league for 3 years. That rules him out for me, not the social protest stuff - the Patriots know how to deal with distraction. Actually, I'd love to see the Patriots pry Colt McCoy out of New York (the Giants have 5 or 6 QBs on their roster.)

So you think Hoyer sucks, but want to bring in a QB with a 7-21 career record and 78.4 rating?

So its clear both of those are worse than Hoyer.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I would say less than ten points a game. Teams will load the box and force him to throw to a rookie TE, a triple covered Edelman, or who? I forget, do the Pats have any WRs that don't suck? Harry and Sanu (I had to go look at the roster), neither can get open.

Meanwhile in Tampa....

Gronk, Howard, Goodwin, Evans, etc. It will be interesting to see how many points Brady puts up when he finally gets some talent around him.

 

[sb1]

I would say less than ten points a game. Teams will load the box and force him to throw to a rookie TE, a triple covered Edelman, or who? I forget, do the Pats have any WRs that don't suck? Harry and Sanu (I had to go look at the roster), neither can get open.

Meanwhile in Tampa....

Gronk, Howard, Goodwin, Evans, etc. It will be interesting to see how many points Brady puts up when he finally gets some talent around him.

10 points a game would be top 5 worst offense in the Super Bowl era. Extremely unlikely.

“Finally”... lol. Poor widdle #Tommy he had it so rough in New England.

 

[captain stone]

All the focus on Brady is missing the point entirely. Hoyer is the single biggest weakness on the roster to me. I'd love to see the Patriots bring in a better backup and make Hoyer a coach. It's too bad Kaepernick at 32 has been out of the league for 3 years. That rules him out for me, not the social protest stuff - the Patriots know how to deal with distraction. Actually, I'd love to see the Patriots pry Colt McCoy out of New York (the Giants have 5 or 6 QBs on their roster)...

I know that Hoyer isn't very good, but he's affordable and should be a huge help to Stid's further development & learning of the system here...To me the best-somewhat-realistic-case scenario for the 2020 QB position would be if Brissett were released during final cuts, signed with NE, and Hoyer then "retires" to become QB coach...but I believe Indy would have a dead cap hit so massive ($12.5M?) that it would make more sense to simply keep him as QB #2/3 with Jake Eason behind Rivers...

 

[goheels22002]

I know that Hoyer isn't very good, but he's affordable and should be a huge help to Stid's further development & learning of the system here...To me the best-somewhat-realistic-case scenario for the 2020 QB position would be if Brissett were released during final cuts, signed with NE, and Hoyer then "retires" to become QB coach...but I believe Indy would have a dead cap hit so massive ($12.5M?) that it would make more sense to simply keep him as QB #2/3 with Jake Eason behind Rivers...

I'd feel a whole lot better with a QB room with Jacoby Brissett and Jarrett Stidham. The Colts have four QBs on the roster, so at least one will be let go. Philip Rivers carries a cap hit of $25M this year - fully guaranteed. The Colts have over $20M in cap space even with Brissett's $12.5, and he's a team captain. I doubt they let him go.

 

[stephens44]

It all depends on injuries and depth. If healthy, I'll go with 25.7 ppg

I will add that the lowest ranked ppg offense we've ever had under McDaniels is #7