How Dominant Is Denver?

[VJCPatriot]

Don't forget guys that it's about who ends up with more points at the end of the day. Denver will score their points. But New England will also score theirs. If New England however dominates time of possession, that will give them a big edge as it will limit Peyton's opportunities.

Finally I feel that Denver's defensive unit overall, especially their secondary is weaker than the Patriots. So Denver may have stronger receiving weapons but they are going up against a tougher secondary. Whilst the Pats may not have as many receiving weapons but they are going against a weaker secondary. Not to mention the Blount factor which could really put things in our favor if he can get rolling.

I feel like this will be a close game and I think we need to get a couple breaks going our way. Example a Manning pick or two would certainly help us on our way. Hopefully BB breaks out his best genius gameplan yet for the AFCCG!! Most 'experts' didn't even think we'd make it this far. Time for the Pats to prove the 'experts' wrong again!

 

[IcyPatriot]

Shut down Moreno and clog the middle routes and you shut down their offense because Manning has a noodle arm. I can see several INT's tomorrow where Manning tries to prove he can still throw the sideline pass with hair on it as the Eck would say.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

And out of those last 8 games, Rob Gronkowski played in almost a full 5 of them.

That's a pretty big missing trait right there, so the stat is kind of misleading.

It's great to see our offense running well the past few games, but it's not that strange to wonder if we can keep up with Denver and Manning if their #7th ranked rush defense is up to the challenge.

Before Gronk, Brady completion percentage was in the low 50s early in the season, when Gronk came back those numbers went up drastically;i think in that Carolina and Houston game his completion percentage was in the 70s, then in the last 3 games his completion went back to the 50s. No doubt we're different without him, so if the running game fails we will be in trouble.

 

[Double TE]

Last week the Pats outscored SD and Denver COMBINED and Brady threw ZERO TDs. Anything can happen but that performance is going to force the coaches to respect the running game and should open up all kinds of passing opportunities.

On the flip side the D got burned by long accurate throws from Luck in the midst of pressure. Manning is excellent but I am not sure he can still make those kind of throws. It will be interesting because the Pats have to give up something as Manning has too many offensive weapons. They need to just make sure they keep the receivers in front of them. Hopefully Jones and Ninko can pressure Manning on their own w/o Blitzes.

I was proud of the Pats because they not only beat but also beat up the Colts old school style. Hopefully they bring that level of punishment vs. Denver.

 

[neuronet]

They are amazing, Manning is amazing. Anything less praise is delusion. That said, Belichick is FREAKING amazing, as is Brady. This should be a great game, come down to the final two minutes. I would prefer a game where we shut up the crowd with two early touchdowns, but not sure that is realistic

 

[Ring 6]

They are a 13-3 team which is a pretty accurate assessment of them. They have an excellent offense and a poor defense.
There is a team like this most seasons, and most of them don't finish the job. Last year it was both us and them.

 

[ivanvamp]

Offensive breakdown by quarter of the season:

Games 1-4
Den: 44.8 pts, 483.0 ypg
NE: 22.3 pts, 367.3 ypg

Gams 5-8
Den: 41.0 pts, 449.8 ypg
NE: 22.5 pts, 292.8 ypg

Games 9-12
Den: 30.3 pts, 442.8 ypg
NE: 35.8 pts, 473.3 ypg

Games 13-17
Den: 33.2 pts, 435.6 ypg
NE: 33.0 pts, 407.6 ypg

Don't get me wrong, Denver's numbers the past 9 games are still outstanding. But they're trending in the wrong direction compared to the first 8 games. Quite the opposite for New England, however. The numbers are moving in an upward direction. It's never a smooth line either way, but jagged; nonetheless, the trend is unmistakeable.

 

[Deus Irae]

Offensive breakdown by quarter of the season:

Games 1-4
Den: 44.8 pts, 483.0 ypg
NE: 22.3 pts, 367.3 ypg

Gams 5-8
Den: 41.0 pts, 449.8 ypg
NE: 22.5 pts, 292.8 ypg

Games 9-12
Den: 30.3 pts, 442.8 ypg
NE: 35.8 pts, 473.3 ypg

Games 13-17
Den: 33.2 pts, 435.6 ypg
NE: 33.0 pts, 407.6 ypg

Don't get me wrong, Denver's numbers the past 9 games are still outstanding. But they're trending in the wrong direction compared to the first 8 games. Quite the opposite for New England, however. The numbers are moving in an upward direction. It's never a smooth line either way, but jagged; nonetheless, the trend is unmistakeable.

Their first 8 games were against weaker teams and Welker was at 100%
Their last 8 games have been against stronger competition and Welker got dinged twice.

That stuff is bound to have an impact. Also, using the numbers you did, your conclusion doesn't fit the data. They're not trending downward, they're trending upward, from 30 ppg to 33 ppg even without Welker, and even with the offense sitting out after Manning set the passing yardage record against the Raiders.

Also, if you look at their schedule, there's only one team that held them under 30 points this season, and that's the Chargers. They played 3 times, and the Chargers held them to fewer than 30 points each time. The significance of that?

All 3 games were played in the 2nd half of the season and the playoffs, and that's a big swing in the points average. For example:


51
20
37
34

That's the scoring in the last 4 games. That 20 point game gets lost in the shuffle, but it's what kills that average.

There does seem to have been a significant drop for weeks 9-12. The significance? THe opponents and the environs:

Chargers
Chiefs
Patriots
Chiefs

Their toughest stretch of the year, 3 away games and bad weather against NE.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'll give Denver and Manning their due - but they don't scare me as a Patsfan

They're the favorites and should be (and I like it that way) and Manning and the offense have certainly put up a ton of points (while it's been a lot of short passes and YAC for Manning, I don't take credit away for that - however you gain first downs and points, it's all good)

But you look at the last game and you'll see that the Patriots (with a little help from Von Miller) gave up a ton of points to grab that big lead

If you compare what Brady and Manning did in that game, it's advantage Brady, big time. (That being said, we had Gronk back then too, so....)

In any event, I have confidence that that both the Patriots O and D can do what it takes to win.

Minimize mistakes, execute the plays and they'll win - just like every other game.

 

[supafly]

But to say it is all about Gronk is wrong.

I never said "it's all about Gronk." I said it's not that strange to wonder if DEN's 7th ranked rush defense is up to the challenge, that we'll be different on offense than we were when we had Rob Gronkowski playing.

I did take the rushing success into account, but showing stats as to how we're just as good as DEN in the past 8 games when we had Gronk for almost a full 5 (4.75) of those 8 isn't too fair in my opinion. A much more reasonable assessment of our offense in the passing game would be post-Gronk. The "problem" with attempting that assessment is that they haven't really chosen to pass the ball all that much, so it'd be difficult to try and take those stats seriously either, even though someone mentioned that Brady's completion rate took a dive again since Gronk went out. I don't know if that's true or not, as I haven't looked.

(and 27 points in the one half he missed in Cleveland).

He played well into the 3rd quarter. As a matter of fact, I thought there was only a few min left, but I could be wrong. I'm assuming about 5 min remaining in the 3rd quarter.

So the Pats have proven they can run against a run defense that is arguably better than the Broncos' run defense.

Of course they have. They did just fine vs CAR, BAL, and maybe MIA.

They have also struggled vs good rush defenses just the same. There's no way to predict what the truth will be, which is why I didn't attempt to. I said that if DEN's 7th ranked rushing defense is up to the challenge, our offensive passing game may be much more limited than when Gronk was playing; hence the reason why I feel the similar stats as DEN are a bit misleading.