How does the Patriots offense change without Edelman?

[NG Pats Fan]

You're good! There's no way I could list that from memory, and I already made a list of key Edelman SBLI blocks somewhere that I was planning to turn into a post but never did. It's a pleasure to hear from someone who studies the game not the box score.

Why don't you take over explaining to the yard-counters why Edelman affects the win-probability of a Patriots team - the chance they win if he's on the field - in ways that can't be measured by counting "yards caught", if the task isn't too quixotic.

Also, I was never certain which of the blocks was truly critical - if Edelman hadn't made a good block, would it have affected the scoring? I thought so, in several of them, but could never really articulate an argument to prove it.

Not to mention, which of the league's prima donna receivers could or would make those blocks?

Right so Julian Edelman is a Better WR than Julio Jones because of his ability to block?

You know, not every WR who is big and talented is a prima Donna

And again, please don't compare Edelman physicalness to Julio. Julio breaks tackles better than anyone in the league. He plays the game as hard as anyone. Difference is he outproduced Edelman by a wide margin

 

[PatsFan2]

Well if JJ is so great, double teams are a mere annoyance etc - why the heck did he get targeted 4 times in the SB? I know Jones is tremendous, likely the best in the game today - but being limited as he was in the SB just cannot happen to a hall of famer. I understand if they were throwing incomplete to him, but they were not. They had a big gun and basically did not fire it.

Well Jones made that routine catch for him but ridiculous catch for anybody else that would have killed our comeback if Atlanta didn't get greedy and play situational football they were in FG range.

 

[bormio]

Well Jones made that routine catch for him but ridiculous catch for anybody else that would have killed our comeback if Atlanta didn't get greedy and play situational football they were in FG range.

Maybe if Atlanta targeted JJ more on third down (they were 1 for 8) we would never have sniffed winning. Even when they had 3rd and 30 in the 4th, if they had found him for 15, they would have tried a FG. For whatever reason, he was underused in the game.

 

[PatsFan2]

Maybe if Atlanta targeted JJ more on third down (they were 1 for 8) we would never have sniffed winning. Even when they had 3rd and 30 in the 4th, if they had found him for 15, they would have tried a FG. For whatever reason, he was underused in the game.

We did a pretty good Good for the most Part with Rowe and a Safety doubling him. The D gets paid to play too.

 

[bormio]

We did a pretty good Good for the most Part with Rowe and a Safety doubling him. The D gets paid to play too.

People are arguing from both sides - on one hand JJ is so great, he sneezes at double teams (and he is doubled constantly), on the other hand, we took him away by doubling.

 

[PatsFan2]

Great players make great plays when it matters JJ did and his OC called some suspect plays after nothing he could do. If they had kicked the FG America would be talking about JJ catch and not Edelman's.

 

[bormio]

Maybe, just maybe the missed XP due to Shea Mc impacted the play-calling at that point. Whatever the reason, they were not willing to settle for a 40 - 42 yard FG attempt.

 

[Simpelton]

People are arguing from both sides - on one hand JJ is so great, he sneezes at double teams (and he is doubled constantly), on the other hand, we took him away by doubling.

If Julio Jones could not beat double-teams he would not be a player he is. I think you are severely underestimating Matt Patricia's defensive gameplan. Anybody can be beaten by a properly coached secondary On Any Given Sunday. The secondary did its job. And so did the defensive coordinator

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think they will run more and go deep (over 20 yards) more often.

 

[bormio]

If Julio Jones could not beat double-teams he would not be a player he is. I think you are severely underestimating Matt Patricia's defensive gameplan. Anybody can be beaten by a properly coached secondary On Any Given Sunday. The secondary did its job. And so did the defensive coordinator

Even a successful double team leaves Jones covered by one guy at the point of the catch. No Pats DBs were a physical match for Jones - see his first catch of the game. I think Atlanta was too willing to go away from Jones for long stretches of the game and needed to force more 50/50 balls to him - especially on some 3rd downs. When they targeted him they were successful every time.

 

[Ring 6]

People are arguing from both sides - on one hand JJ is so great, he sneezes at double teams (and he is doubled constantly), on the other hand, we took him away by doubling.

Exaggerating both points surely creates a conflict between them where there isn't.

 

[bormio]

I think they will run more and go deep (over 20 yards) more often.

I agree on both. But more deep passes means we could have more games where we look all-world, and some games where we just do not click. Also risks more INTs. A double -edged sword.

 

[PatsFan2]

Even a successful double team leaves Jones covered by one guy at the point of the catch. No Pats DBs were a physical match for Jones - see his first catch of the game. I think Atlanta was too willing to go away from Jones for long stretches of the game and needed to force more 50/50 balls to him - especially on some 3rd downs. When they targeted him they were successful every time.

Don't underestimate Rowe's height and arm length against Big WR's. That's why Talib have very good success in this league. They do a good Job against the Big boys it's the little quick twitch fast WR's they have problems with.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree on both. But more deep passes means we could have more games where we look all-world, and some games where we just do not click. Also risks more INTs. A double -edged sword.

We won't run more than we did season to season because we ran so much in games 1-4 last year.

 

[Simpelton]

Even a successful double team leaves Jones covered by one guy at the point of the catch. No Pats DBs were a physical match for Jones - see his first catch of the game. I think Atlanta was too willing to go away from Jones for long stretches of the game and needed to force more 50/50 balls to him - especially on some 3rd downs. When they targeted him they were successful every time.

I think the reason Atlanta got away from throws like that is because you got a lot of turnovers that way. For most of the game making that kind of big play was not worth the risk because they already have the lead. When they did neef to take the big risk again Julio Jones delivered. But remember they spent most of the middle of that game with a very comfortable lead. That's not the time for high-risk high-reward plays. Especially not to pad the numbers of one particular receiver in the Super Bowl of all places. If you are stat padding in the Super Bowl you're probably doing it wrong.

On the Sack that took them out of field goal range I think that they were trying to play to the momentum and emotion of the game rather than the situation And took a high-risk play they probably should not have taken. You are saying that they should have taken more of that kind of risk. It could have worked but it would also have led to increased turnovers and let the opponent back into the game.

 

[bormio]

I think the reason Atlanta got away from throws like that is because you got a lot of turnovers that way. For most of the game making that kind of big play was not worth the risk because they already have the lead. When they did neef to take the big risk again Julio Jones delivered. But remember they spent most of the middle of that game with a very comfortable lead. That's not the time for high-risk high-reward plays. Especially not to pad the numbers of one particular receiver in the Super Bowl of all places. If you are stat padding in the Super Bowl you're probably doing it wrong.

On the Sack that took them out of field goal range I think that they were trying to play to the momentum and emotion of the game rather than the situation And took a high-risk play they probably should not have taken. You are saying that they should have taken more of that kind of risk. It could have worked but it would also have led to increased turnovers and let the opponent back into the game.

I think Atlanta struggled with trying to decide between running clock and going for a kill shot. They did not have a good feel what to do and everything they tried was wrong. The key series was after the failed onside kick - gain a mere 10 yards and a FG was likely - and they got 8 or 9 on first down. The miss on that drive set the tone for the rest of the game. Their execution, especially penalties, was awful from that point on.

 

[mgteich]

I wouldn't leave out Hogan or Gronk. I certainly could see Cooks going deep, with Hogan and Gronk, running intermediate or even short, routes.

I suppose that we could overload Amendola until he inevitably gets injured. I'm not sure that is a reasonable strategy, especially if we are depending on him as a returner.

How do we make up for the responsibilities of Edelman? 60% comes from Amendola, with the other 40% coming from routes run by Mitchell, Cooks, and the RBs.

The main concerns, of course, are the durability and fact that he's obviously not as quick coming off the line. Let's hope the OL holds up, the running game looks solid, and that they continue to work through this until the loss isn't as noticeable.

 

[Simpelton]

I wouldn't leave out Hogan or Gronk. I certainly could see Cooks going deep, with Hogan and Gronk, running intermediate or even short, routes.

I suppose that we could overload Amendola until he inevitably gets injured. I'm not sure that is a reasonable strategy, especially if we are depending on him as a returner.

I would expect that if dollars took on a major share of receiving targets someone else like Burkhead or White would take those special teams assignments.

 

[JayNM]

Here is my breakdown on how well each of our Top 4 WRs in the Roster would fare as a sub for Edelman's job as the main slot guy.

- Amendola is the first cause he is the obvious choice, and I, for one, LOVE what Dola brings to our team... As our 5th option. As our main slot guy, I'm sorry to say this but I think he will struggle. For one he is considerably slower than Edelman. Against lesser competition, his precise Route Running and Vision are what set him apart, but when you have someone who can close down on ya fast or that can keep up with you , that lack of explosion will show. On the plus side, he is far removed from an ACL, so maybe he'll return faster.

His biggest problem has always been his unavailability anyway. He is often injured and sidelined and restrained by some malady. Edelman doesn't shy away from contact and endures plenty of abuse, which I don't think Amendola could take. Still, he will undoubtedly get the most of the work and hopefully he can produce good numbers from week one to the Super Bowl (it's a bad sign that I kinda scoffed at thinking about it)


- Hogan has been mentioned a lot and he certainly has speed, but does he have the agility to play in the slot? I for one don't remember any particular catch he made in the middle of the field... Also, One thing I notice in his game is this particular trait in his catching mechanic: His elbows are often far apart when catching the ball and that could cause trouble when you go for a grab closer to the body, since you're relying solely on you hands to stop the power of the throw. Of all WRs, he is the one I can't see the least as a slot.

- Mitchell is a guy I have mixed feelings about. He has a long reach which could help find those gaps in the D. To add, his hand look very sure, reminding me a bit of how Boldin goes after and catches the ball. The problem is that I don't know how well he can read route options... Welker had previous Slot experience in Miami, as had Dola with the Rams, while Edelman was a option QB in College. We've been reading a lot on how important their chemistry with Brady was and this chemistry is exactly them being able to read the D as fast as Brady could (Most of the times anyway). I'll leave this one to the Coaches to decide. I'll leave to @SammyBlueCat to decide if he is quick as cat, too

- Cooks is someone that I admittedly haven't seem much tape of, But my first impression is he doing great in the slot, assuming he withstands the abuse. He is so fast and really good at trotting down and exploding, it would be hard to keep up with him... However we would be locking away his biggest strength: His deep speed. Plus it is his first year in the system, so he'll surely need time to be fully integrated. I wouldn't be surprised to see #19 cutting the field occasionally, though specially on Slants and other quick routes.

In the end, I think that a big part of Edelman's production will be replenished by our RBs and TEs. We have at least 3 pretty good pass- catching RBs (not even counting Foster) and I can see them being split wide even more often than before, too.

One last note: I don't think is too crazy to think that the Coaching staff would consider an outside acquisition to improve our roster. ACLs are tricky for that position, so Edelman might not be himself in 2018 and Dola is in his contract year. If Carr or Lucien aren't cut for the job, Bill might go shopping

 

[Huckleberry1]

I agree on both. But more deep passes means we could have more games where we look all-world, and some games where we just do not click. Also risks more INTs. A double -edged sword.

Brady is still going to protect the ball but imo they will run more deep routes and call more deep throws, the attempts will depend upon the separation. I just think the offense will be more diverse we in terms of how they use the entire field.