How confident are you now that Mac Jones is “the guy”? 1-10

[Bill Lee]

I'm not sure why people go with Dak as the comp.

Of current players, the comp I saw used the most was Derek Carr.

How do we feel about that comp after watching this season's games?

Derek seems really streaky, but we see a lot of slow starts to our games so maybe it's fair to say Mac is streaky too?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

BB doesn't really have guys. I'd go with 7. But at anytime he could trade or draft a guy with superior physical characteristics to Mac. I wouldn't be surprised if he took a flyer at some QB this year in the draft. Some Trey Lance type falls to the third round - he will take them.

We've seen BB spend two thirds on such QBs, and neither panned out.

 

[Bill Lee]

We've seen BB spend two thirds on such QBs, and neither panned out.

We allegedly would have gone for Davis Mills in the 2nd if Mac wasn't there, and he's looking pretty decent in HOU.

 

[VectorPrime]

Mac is Dak Prescott in his rookie year right now. Nothing wrong with that.

I can see you aren’t aware of Dak’s rookie year stats then.

 

[Nehalem]

Looking at the first 12 games I would feel pretty good going forward with Mac Jones

The last 5 games though...

 

[amfootball]

Looking at the first 12 games I would feel pretty good going forward with Mac Jones

The last 5 games though...

He has been terrible the last month+ save for the JV Jags. Next year is going to be a big year for him as no rookie excuses. He has got to vastly improve his physical strength and arm. Defenses have figured him out because he can't throw outside with any type of consistency/velocity. If those things do not improve drastically, I don't see how he is the future QB of this team.

 

[Nehalem]

He has been terrible the last month+ save for the JV Jags. Next year is going to be a big year for him as no rookie excuses. He has got to vastly improve his physical strength and arm. Defenses have figured him out because he can't throw outside with any type of consistency/velocity. If those things do not improve drastically, I don't see how he is the future QB of this team.

I mean really when you look at it we went from 7-9 to 10-7. So call it a 2.5 win improvement.

That is pretty disappointing considering all the FA money spent and that we had Cam Newton's corpse at QB.

 

[Bill Lee]

He has been terrible the last month+ save for the JV Jags. Next year is going to be a big year for him as no rookie excuses. He has got to vastly improve his physical strength and arm. Defenses have figured him out because he can't throw outside with any type of consistency/velocity. If those things do not improve drastically, I don't see how he is the future QB of this team.

I think it's easy to see. We don't have anyone on the roster better than him, and we have greater needs at other positions. We won't have draft capital to get a top five pick any time soon either. Then you find yourself in the realm of FAs or trading for QBs. That brings you people like Cousins, Wentz, Teddy Bridgewater, etc. In theory it's also Ahole Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, but we'll see if they even hit the market. There's lots of other teams a lot more QB-needy than us that will bid up the market for them. Mac has been brought up in our system, anyone we bring in may or may not adjust to it. It's hard to see us do anything but ride with Mac throughout his rookie contract and try to build a stronger team around him, and if that is successful, extend him.

 

[amfootball]

I think it's easy to see. We don't have anyone on the roster better than him, and we have greater needs at other positions. We won't have draft capital to get a top five pick any time soon either. Then you find yourself in the realm of FAs or trading for QBs. That brings you people like Cousins, Wentz, Teddy Bridgewater, etc. In theory it's also Ahole Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, but we'll see if they even hit the market. There's lots of other teams a lot more QB-needy than us that will bid up the market for them. Mac has been brought up in our system, anyone we bring in may or may not adjust to it. It's hard to see us do anything but ride with Mac throughout his rookie contract and try to build a stronger team around him, and if that is successful, extend him.

I have no doubt that Bill will stay with Mac through his rookie contract. But I am not sure what his trajectory really is given how much physical skill he lacks. In today's league, the QB is relied upon to be an impact player who makes the big plays to win games. When you compare Mac to Burrow, Herbert, Allen there is a huge drop off and I am not even advocating necessarily for any of those QBs but just more noting the landscape of the league. Young QBs are expected to carry the team and even though Bill builds his team to be complete and balanced, he also does not spend money on A level skill guys and without some of those guys on this team, I just don't see how Mac succeeds to make this team a contender with the elite AFC teams.

 

[jdlboot14]

Mac's numbers are near the top of any rookie qb who's started a full(ish) rookie year. That's not an accident, he didn't fall into that. Busts don't do that... except for RGIII - and you could argue his injury wrecked him. Otherwise - Luck, Herbert, Newton, Big Ben, Burrows, Mayfield, Watson are rookies who performed similar to Mac in yards/rating their first year. I think we'd be stupid to think Mac will turn into crap after a start like this in a pressure-packed environment.

 

[amfootball]

Mac's numbers are near the top of any rookie qb who's started a full(ish) rookie year. That's not an accident, he didn't fall into that. Busts don't do that... except for RGIII - and you could argue his injury wrecked him. Otherwise - Luck, Herbert, Newton, Big Ben, Burrows, Mayfield, Watson are rookies who performed similar to Mac in yards/rating their first year. I think we'd be stupid to think Mac will turn into crap after a start like this in a pressure-packed environment.

That is really extreme. I have not read the entire thread but Mac is not a bust at all. The question is as I see it, is HE the guy to lead this team to championships. That is a hard case to make IMO based on this season. It is still early but I think the Pats most likely a fringe playoff team with Mac but in terms of beating the elite AFC teams? I just don't see it unless Bill has a brain transplant and decides to build this team like the elite offenses in the league.

 

[FCB02062]

I am super confident that Jones is "the guy". In only his rookie year he's proven he can make throws under pressure and has a great touch. His arm strength is adequate. "They" said the same thing about about Brady - that his arm was weak. I am also convinced that Jones could've handled more than what Captain Conservative put on his plate. If Coach Bill's, Overrated Mayo, and Kid Steve's defense was worth a damn Jones would've had at least 2 more shots at winning games, but the defense's abject failures when it matters most inhibited Jones' ability to mount game winning drives. Think about it, Mac Jones lost 7 games and I'm pretty sure in every game the defense had a chance to make a stop and get the ball back with a chance to win or tie and they failed every time.
Mac Jones had a really good rookie year but I am worried that because of the piss poor defense and the coaching staff's ultra conservative decisions and game plans, he may get the label of "can't beat good teams"....

 

[PatsFanSince74]

yeah about that, 7-8. I mean, "how confident" of what? If we were the JETE, he'd have already reached a sky-high goal, backing into the playoffs. For some guys here, "how confident" means "how confident are you that he'll get 6 rings... if he only gets 5 he's a bust."

Here's what I think he can do right now: win it if everything else is working.

Next year I think it will be more like "it's not always pretty but Mac Jones can engineer a comeback... don't sleep on Mac Jones." (Sort of where he is, but with a little more active ability to turn a game around, not counting on the D.)

Where I want him to be is "You are never out of it with Mac Jones under center" or "Having Mac Jones on your team disguises a plethora of other issues." I'm not certain he ever gets there :/

But I hope that he does

That's pretty close to how I see it: "Confident of what?" You lay out two scenarios very well. The only thing I'd add is that he needs more weapons if he's going to get to the top level you describe.

 

[VrabelJr]

Yeah, he’s made mistakes you expect a rookie to make (disastrous pick sixes), but he’s done a ton of things you’re very happy to see a rookie do.

If we were a team going through a multi-decade drought like the the Bills pre-Allen or the Saints pre-Brees or the Jets since Testaverde (omg lol), you’d be lining up for season tickets right now.

Solid mother****ing 10.

 

[RIpats88]

I have no doubt that Bill will stay with Mac through his rookie contract. But I am not sure what his trajectory really is given how much physical skill he lacks. In today's league, the QB is relied upon to be an impact player who makes the big plays to win games. When you compare Mac to Burrow, Herbert, Allen there is a huge drop off and I am not even advocating necessarily for any of those QBs but just more noting the landscape of the league. Young QBs are expected to carry the team and even though Bill builds his team to be complete and balanced, he also does not spend money on A level skill guys and without some of those guys on this team, I just don't see how Mac succeeds to make this team a contender with the elite AFC teams.

You make it seem like he's got Mannings arm in his last year. He throws the ball with some nice touch. Did you see the deep balls to Meyers and Henry?

Also, Herbert, burrow and Allen have elite receivers to throw to. And are in their 2nd and 3rd years respectively.

This idea he's not a guy who can carry a team without elite talent keeps getting thrown around too. Name me one QB in the playoffs right now without at least 1 elite receiver.

 

[mgteich]

Did we get value at pick 15? Yes, that's a 10.

Is Jones good enough to continue with the patriots for at least 3 more years? Yes, that's a 10.

Would be better off with one of the top 4 picked? totally irrelevant!

Would Jones have been as good if he had to play for JAX, NYJ, or CHI. Also, totally irrelevant!
==========
The guy?
Are we asking whether the patriots will sign his 5th year option? OK, I guess that's a 7 for me.

Will he be the patriots starter for 8 years or more (for his 2nd contract if there is one). No one knows. Yes, that depends on Jones. But it also depends on the patriots coach at the time, and the GM at the time, and the market.

 

[GreenCow]

Brady didn’t have a strong arm during his first 3 SB wins. That was one of the knocks on him coming out of college, and why he had to split time with freshman with Drew Henson a freshman with an elite arm his Senior year.

True, but it seemed like Brady just needed some mechanics tweaking.

My concern with Mac is that his mechanics are already pretty darn good! I don’t think you’re going to see as much of a “boost” with Mac, as you did with Brady.

High Ceiling, Low Floor kind of deal.

 

[Joker]

True, but it seemed like Brady just needed some mechanics tweaking.

My concern with Mac is that his mechanics are already pretty darn good! I don’t think you’re going to see as much of a “boost” with Mac, as you did with Brady.

High Ceiling, Low Floor kind of deal.

what you know about Brady and his career evolution wouldn't fit on the head of a pin...do STFU

 

[GreenCow]

I saw this tweet today, which I find absolutely
ridiculous. But it does show that some people are low’ish on Mac, for whatever reason.

 

[Dingleberry]

It is so intellectually lazy to go with the low ceiling/high floor take. Nice hot take, football expert. The running, overly athletic QB's are high ceiling, and the traditional pocket passer is lower ceiling. Boooooring. And wrong. Go play Madden or whatever the big game is nowadays.

Brady, in 2001, was NO ceiling according to the experts. Mac could be the 2nd coming of Brady, Matt Ryan, Chad Pennington, or any number of QB's. You do not know his ceiling.

"He doesn't run around and doesn't have a cannon...hmmm....I know, he has a low ceiling". Brilliant analysis. Leave the lazy, recycled hot takes to Skip and Colin. At least they get paid A lot of money to sound dumber than a box of bildos.