SoCal Bong
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2004
- Messages
- 1,332
- Reaction score
- 10
Over the past 6-8 weeks, and more so in the first round of the playoffs, Vegas has been getting slaughtered by public (non-sharp) money going heavy to the favorite, and the favorites covering. This could be a reaction to that, as well as the possibility that if they opened at say 6.5, the sharps bang the Pats Sunday night through Monday and the line moves up. When the public money starts coming in on the Pats -9 on Sat/Sunday (as it almost certainly will), the Sharps can take the dog and have a 3 point middle ground where they make money both ways.
You are on the money KenSims. It's not so much about the books trying to keep the action balanced as much as it is about anticipating which side is coming in and when. For the most part the pattern is consistent and public money (favorites and overs) comes in on game day. The other factor I don't believe anyone has mentioned yet is parlay exposure (off the board, not pre-printed bubble sheets). The most common parlay written the last two weeks was almost surely taking all 4 favorites and those cashed in the wild card round which even hurts the books.
Another factor that may not have been discussed is that if most every book around Vegas has Pats -9.5, the one book that goes with -10 may get pounded with Ravens Sharp bets so there is little incentive to be bold and stray from the consensus.
As far as tracking the line moves, remember that it sometimes changes just for a minute. If sharps think 10 is gonna be tough to find, they'll hit it hard if it ever shows up with 6 figure wagers (which Cantor will take, just follow Mayweather on Twitter to see proof) and that line goes right back to 9.5 before anyone else gets a chance to get some.