[Highlight] Ravens go for 2 and fail, fall to Steelers 20-19

[Nehalem]

I don't know why anyone would say its a stupid move to go for 2 instead of play for OT.

Pittsburg is a decent team playing at home. You are basically tied at the end of regulation. Why would you think your chances of winning in OT are better than 50-50?

The 2pt conversion rate I found was 49.4%

Tucker is an excellent kicker with a 97.7% XP conversion rate. But divide that by the 50-50 overtime chance and you get an overall 48.8% chance of winning.

49.4 > 48.8 so simplistic analysis at least shows that going for 2 is the better bet if you want to win. Instead of playing to lose later.

And playing in OT adds extra injury risk and tiring out your team for the next game.

 

[patchick]

I am glad it failed but it is not a crazy gamble. They are over 50% on two point conversions. Kick an XP and your odds are about 50%. So...50% chance to win now, or 50% chance to win later.

Agreed -- it's a case of the timeless mental bias toward delaying the certainty of loss rather than looking at the overall odds of winning. Kicking would have made the instant loss unlikely, so it feels safer. But the odds of making the XP + winning in overtime with no cornerbacks is probably less than the odds of the 2-pt conversion, so the safety is illusory.

The one wild card here is the value and likelihood of a tie. Probably not enough to sway the decision, though. I think it was a solid call on Harbaugh's part, and hurrah that it didn't work out!

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

49.4 > 48.8 so simplistic analysis at least shows that going for 2 is the better bet if you want to win. Instead of playing to lose later.

And playing in OT adds extra injury risk and tiring out your team for the next game.

And you have just moved the ball 60 yards in a minute with barely any resistance. Pittsburgh's defense was gassed, and indeed the 2 pt. coversion pass went to a relatively uncovered receiver (TE Andrews) The QB just had to rush it a little and didn't get enough air under it.

 

[Nehalem]

And you have just moved the ball 60 yards in a minute with barely any resistance. Pittsburgh's defense was gassed, and indeed the 2 pt. coversion pass went to a relatively uncovered receiver (TE Andrews) The QB just had to rush it a little and didn't get enough air under it.

And the Ravens defense had just given up 17 points in the 4th Q.

 

[nabwong]

This reminds of the many times my wife calls me on my way home from work to ask if I picked up the thing she asked for. I always go for OT a.k.a say i'm in the middle of doing exactly that and make a bee line to the store before they close.

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

Lamar missed a few short passes just like that yesterday. The moment was too big for him?

He sucks at any throw that requires any touch or speed variation. He can throw it hard, but that's literally the only way he can throw it. His touch passes are awful. Can't throw a nice lob on a RB screen to a RB in stride to maximize YAC.

 

[Sicilian]

He sucks at any throw that requires any touch or speed variation. He can throw it hard, but that's literally the only way he can throw it. His touch passes are awful. Can't throw a nice lob on a RB screen to a RB in stride to maximize YAC.

He's basically Cam Newton before Cam suffered injuries that turned him into simply an above average athlete instead of an elite one. Once that otherworldly athleticism was gone, Cam didn't have the fundamentals to fall back on. Same will happen eventually to Lamar, either due to age or injury. He relies way too much on the fact that he's the strongest and fastest player on most fields.

 

[moosekill]

Most OT games are decided by a FG. If I have Justin Tucker, I'm playing for OT.

Most OT games used to be decided by a fg. I am not sure anymore.

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

He's basically Cam Newton before Cam suffered injuries that turned him into simply an above average athlete instead of an elite one. Once that otherworldly athleticism was gone, Cam didn't have the fundamentals to fall back on. Same will happen eventually to Lamar, either due to age or injury. He relies way too much on the fact that he's the strongest and fastest player on most fields.

Yeah, exactly. Great comparaison.