The secondary is already excellent and the Dukester and the Mcourty brother hasn't played a snap yet. This defense was abysmal in 2017. Good defenses do not disappear in crunch time. They were same lucky the Pitt TE juggled the ball. The Eagles went up and down the field on this defense.You can point out silver linings all you want but they were bad.
2017 NE defense ranked 31st pet Football Outsiders.
I am unimpressed by Football Outsiders DVOA, especially team defense and team offense. DVOA was created originally to compare players, and is completely predicated on drives. Drives are made up of yards. Unfortunately, the NFL does not award wins and losses based on yards.
The team DVOA is comparing team drives to a mythical average of the rest of the league drives. There is no such thing. The NFL is a complex system with outside factors that cannot be controlled - weather, injuries, contractual holdouts, trades, cuts, travel to London or Mexico, Goodell being a douchebag, whatever. What about travel and teams coming off of byes?
The DVOA weights late season games higher than early season games - that's good. The Patriots are an evolutionary team every year, especially on defense. Is there a weight given to games after you clinch the playoffs and start managing the number of snaps for starters? No. That would only benefit one or two teams and throw off the mythical average.
What's average? an 8-8 team? There were none in the AFC last year. Is an indoor team average or an outdoor team average? Do we care what average is on defense when the Pats "average" 30+ points per game and could care less about yards and more about possessions?
How is it possible that the Indianapolis Colts defense ranks higher than the Patriots defense when the Colts gave up 108 more points than the Patriots did?
DVOA penalizes teams with good special teams, particularly good returners, and outstanding kickers and punters. The Patriots dedicate more money and greater focus on special teams which means other teams start drives deeper in their own territory - an opportunity for more yards. The Patriots have excellent returners (Amendola and Edelman come to mind. ) The Patriots average better field position to start drives after kicks - less opportunity for offensive yards, hence a defensive advantage since they can't possibly give up as many yards over the course of a season.
The defensive DVOA somehow puts more weight on fumbles recovered than points allowed. Why is that? Because it's an individual statistic useful for comparing running backs. Not teams. Teams don't fumble. They put more weight on defenses that play indoors than outdoors. How can that be? Home teams on defense have a distinct noise advantage compared to visiting teams (see: Colts or Falcons.)
A sixty-yard TD drive in DVOA is better for the defensive ranking than an 80-yard drive the sputters at the 10-yard line and winds up with a FG or turning the ball over on downs. You win the DVOA and lose the game. Yay, team!
DVOA doesn't take into account the dependence on a no-huddle short passing game. They weight rushing stats heavier than they should. The Pats use a short passing game in place of a traditional rushing offense. When you have a player like Tom Brady, there is little incentive to take the ball out his hands. The Patriots have entire drives made up of no-huddle three and four yard passes to keep the chains moving and the opposing defense on the field. I guess that means the defense stopped the run.
I'm happy for the Jacksonville Jaguars who had the best DVOA defense in 2017. If memory serves, the Jaguars gave up more points to the Patriots than the Patriots did to them in the playoffs. The Jags, with the DVOA trophy, were doing the same thing you were doing on Super Bowl Sunday - sitting on their couches drinking beer wondering why Butler wasn't in the game.
