Going for it on 4th down

[QuantumMechanic]

Interesting survey of the conversion rates for various kinds of fourth-down plays:

What the numbers say about 4th down decisions. | SportsonEarth.com : Mike Tanier Article

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

I wonder what would happen to the odds if more coaches were more aggressive.

 

[Deus Irae]

They authors eliminated plays that would weaken their case. Shockingly, that helped to make their case seem stronger.

On the plus side, at least this tacitly acknowledges what I've been saying about this idea, which is that the decisions can't be viewed just by the stats, but need to take context into account.

 

[Nunchucks]

The percentages of going for it on 4th down are worthless. The actual offense on the field, the defense on the field, momentum, how is the OL playing versus the DL, etc are all more imporant than statistics considered in pretty much a vacuum.

The decision to go for it on 4th down is a context driven .decision.

 

[Canuck]

The percentages of going for it on 4th down are worthless. The actual offense on the field, the defense on the field, momentum, how is the OL playing versus the DL, etc are all more imporant than statistics considered in pretty much a vacuum.

The decision to go for it on 4th down is a context driven .decision.

I don't think the percentages of going for it on 4th down is worthless. I think it is just a factor with all the others you mentioned that goes into the decision of going for it and not. But using it as the sole factor is worthless.