I would love to sign 3 veteran free agent defensive linemen, but I am lost what everyone is thinking concerning the salary cap. I think we have to be realistic with our expectations and projections staying within a reasonable long-term salary cap scenario. Please see below.
Maybe we should be adding apy/cap hit implications when we are listing our moves.
f.e.
Tomlinson is projected around
10M apy. I wouldn't necessarily take him at that price. But there is decent chance his price will be lower (NYG will probably not compete if they want to keep Williams & they have young core on the roster; prices after top tier FAs will fall; DL could be less valued position due to cap restraint). If his price gets closer to 8M range i'd be in. He is 27 and one of the better IDL in the league fitting what BB wants perfectly. Id love to sign him on 5-6y deal (although his agent might push for much shorter). That would make his “
adjusted“ cap hit (TOP 51 rule) well
below 5M even if its not backloaded. So even if you take him at 10M you'd end up with around 5M cap hit.
If you dont want to spend top NT $ and still want significant upgrade you can go DaQuan Jones at some 6M & 3.5 cap hit.
Guy is guesstimated by Miguel (and me) at c.
4M. 2021 cap hit would be around
2M.
So if you're willing to spend some 10M 2021 cap on IDL & still add one FA you can go with guys projected at 6-7M apy like Wolfe or one of plenty cheaper options among older vets.
We have $65M-ish in salary cap. We can create more space by cutting players, like Cannon, but if healthy, cutting Cannon creates a hole that we need to fill with additional salary, so I am not sure how much cap space is gained with that approach. We also can extend some guys, Hightower, etc., to gain more salary cap space, but we can only do that so much and minimize future dead space. We can also back load contracts to lessen the salary cap hit in 2021, and I think BB will do some of this as the cap will go up in coming years, but again if dead cap space is to be avoided in future years, that is limited.
If we start at $65M as of today, we need to save $5M for rookies and in-season LTBE incentives, so that leaves us with $60M. If we reserve $10M for a QB, that leaves us with $50M. If we assume half for the offense and half for the defense, that gives us $25M on defense. These are all "out of my @ss estimates" and if anyone can estimate better that would be great.
Assuming we are going to sign a veteran OLB, DE, 2 DTs and possibly a CB/S, that is five guys. How does everyone see those five guys fitting within $25M or am I missing something? 2 top DTs or 3 veteran DTs seems to me to take up too much salary cap space. As
@Ivan notes I think BB will spend more on DEs versus run stuffing DTs. Maybe people think that the veteran defensive line signees can move all over the DL, so the position designations of DE and DT are not important? Still if we are going to sign 3 veteran defensive lineman, who are interchangeable at DT and DE, that would take up our $25M salary cap space. What about OLB or CB/S?
ok - let me repost this for those who missed it or are joining later:
CAP SPENDING MATH
Since lots of people are spending pats cap & paid Pats “reporters“ making rookie mistakes maybe just a few notes:
63M free cap is even much more than it looks at first sight:
1.
The 2021 cap hit will be 20-40% lower than average per year contract.
So if you want and go spend 60M of Pats 2021 Cap Space - you can sign c 80M worth of apy contracts.
f.e.:
Hightower 2017 - one of top LB on the market —
reported 4y/35.5M =
8.9M apy (all projections well over 10) =
5.3M cap hit in 2017
This is a bit backloaded since Pats were well in SB window. Here is more normal example of signing solid vet:
John Simon - solid starter/rotation >
first reported 2y/7.1M = 3.5M apy turned into
2y/4.4M = 2.2apy = 1.8M cap hit (projected iirc 2y/12M)
2.
Those Cap Hits are actually even lower bc of the TOP 51 contracts rule. Every new contract higher than 51st contract
replaces that contract. Usually that contract is around
0.8M. Pats already have 62 players signed. Current 51st contract is already around 0.8M.
That means Pats only lost around 4.5M cap space signing Hightower on 9M apy contract.
3.
Another common mistake made in offseason roster building projection is Cap Space Hit for combined 2021 Draft Class.
While the cost for
Pats Draft Class is currently projected at
9M most these contracts will not make TOP 51. Only 1st and 2nd round picks (if they keep them) would make the top 51. So when you account
TOP 51 rule only
2M would be taken off Free Cap.
4.
Also - even if Pats don't NEED to cut or restructure players, some additional 2021 cap will come from that anyway (high priced opt-outs etc)
5.
Projected apy contracts (that i will include in my positional listings to follow) will probably be even lower than normally due to tighter League Cap - especially after top tier.
BTW - as projected earlier, Pats are now
#3 in 2021 Free Cap after Indy traded for Wentz (and lost 25.4M). This means they are even better situated to take advantage of the bargain FA market 2021.
Pats are #1 in effective Cap Space in 2022!
Bottom line: 63M+ Free Cap can buy you a lot of team. Hope you can enjoy your roster building even more.
I am curious how posters are balancing their "wishes" with their "long term responsible salary cap management" objectives. This is the
GM LOUNGE, not a draft thread or a free agent wish list thread. Here we have to be realistic and responsible with our projections like a real GM.
100% And i am so thankful posters here respect this . our appetite will always be bigger than BBs though
Also - i see this thread as a process and elimination game. So concentrating on sole positions we might get a bit too greedy but after i finish with positional listings we will recap/revisit and discuss more in depth the whole picture approach.
I apologize for going too slow - ill try to speed up positional listings.