GM LOUNGE

[Ivan]

PFF has him at 20M apy probably going from his 19.4M potential FT. They (PFF) have Brad Spielberger from OTC doing this so its decent guess this will be the starting point. Don't know if @Miguel made a guesstimation on him yet.

I doubt he'd sign for half of Donald as top DL this year. I also doubt he'll get 20M apy even if top contract will be less affected bc the DL position could be. But teams will compete for him and i doubt BB will be outbidding at this position with plenty other good and much cheaper options.

I agree with this completely, Williams isn’t going to go for less than 16 per, but I would pay that in a heartbeat.

 

[micronin127]

I remember when Baltimore drafted Haloti Ngata. All the analysts pointed out that a superior true NT in a 3-4 base would allow the LBs, specifically Ray Lewis, to flow and pursue. Tying up two blockers and pushing the pocket like Vince Wilfork used to do for us. That is what will allow Hightower to triumphantly return. He can lead the young LBs; Wino, Uche, Jennings, Hall. I think we need to go back to a base 3-4 and I would start by signing Dalvin Tomlinson. In the draft there are players that I like, but I'm not an expert.

I would sign at least 3 veteran free agents for the interior defensive line. Whether 3-4 or 4-3 we need the front to keep the LBs clean and flowing to the ball.

 

[long distance]

I'm looking at this list and feeling confident we can really help our DL in one season from the looks of the list. Both FA & draft look deep.

*other possible trade options*
I brought them up before but what about Daron Payne or Jon Allen? Washington has decisions to make on both. Neither are on a long term deal and both are up soon. I would offer up our 2nd for Allen and possibly Payne since he's on a cheap deal the next two years. I believe Kerrigan (olb/rush) is on the table and who knows about Settle? Anyway either one would go a long way.

In fact how about we pair one (Allen/Payne) with Williams or Harris? Resign Butler or Guy and we don't have to reach in rounds one or two in the draft.

Round three options in draft if we wanted to go there. Possible prospects there ... Adding just one of these guys. Shelvin, Togiai, McNeill, one of the USC boys and Bobby Brown..

If Brockers, Hicks, Goldman, Shelton, Short were available/interested in coming here I would consider each at a decent but nothing outrageous price. We could set our IDL by adding one of these guys.

How about 46/171 for Allen. One of Harris, Hicks, Daniels or Short. Then one of Goldman, Butler or Guy.

We'd have to pay two of Allen/Payne, Williams/ Harris but we'd have a very good DL. Add Butler and let's say McNeill or Bobby Brown from the draft and we have some real potential there. Run/Pass, all of those guys are solid for their respected positions.

Add Milano and we are in a great position. Very flexible. We don't have to go defense until round 3 or 4. We can take the BPA or w/e offensive player we want at 15. Trade back or into next year.

I had Allen as a possible trade initially but decided to not include him here bc it is not likely imo. I wanted to keep the likely/more possible scenarios on the list (and its a long list already). But thanks for bringing it up and expanding options even further.

I did include some trade options for players on teams with tight cap and would be reasonable contracts to take - like Brockers, Onyemata - or players BB might love to coach/play and could be available after June 1 - Hargrave, Tuitt, Goldman. (Quite a few teams tight on cap can have bad seasons so midseason trade deadline could be the next big bargain and id be surprised if BB doesn't keep enough space to take advantage.)

I doubt trade will be the play at this position though:
1. This is one of the deepest FA positions as you can see from the list & will be plenty of very good FA options after all the cuts:

GM LOUNGE

Read it in one of the many speculative articles. It's possible I bet they're kicking themselves for picking up Howard's 5th year, given his injury and the arrival of Gronk.

www.patsfans.com

(of course if NO, LAR call Bill to give them a little something for Brockers, Onyemata he'd be interested..)
2. His trades for this position were always low key & cheap (Hicks for Hoo-man, Shelton for swap of mid-round picks)
3. His investment in this position was one of the lowest in NFL after last big Vince contract.

On the other hand he did traditionally invest highly in Drafts. For life after Wilfork he invested 2 consecutive 1st round picks (Easley, M.Brown) and a 3rd (Valentine). Despite no-one sticking around he did not invest a high pick on DT for 4 straight Drafts. This leads me to believe drafting starting DT is a real possibility. No matter what you can do in FA you always want at least one cheap home starter to groom.

So despite great opportunity to completely rebuild DT through FA i expect they draft one reasonably high - 4th round at the latest if someone like Shelvin falls. One additional reason is that it might be hard to sign FAs on longer-term deals this Free Agency - agents will be pushing for 1y/short deals to lose as little money as possible due to Salary Cap collapse..


Fixing Pats DL should be the easiest job in the world this year. Still, BBs GM value views and coaching preferences/possibilities may vary significantly from our wish lists.. Nevertheless ill post mine later

 

[Ivan]

When you look at the way Belichick went about building the first version of the Patriots dynasty his initial focus was on the DL, where he picked Seymour and Warren, and later Wilfork. He then went about adding veterans he knew would provide leadership on all units. In this case they have the veterans already on the roster to provide leadership in most units, and what they need is more talent and more playmakers. QB is obviously the most dire need but they really need DL, WR, TE. The return of Hightower is really going to help but if there is no QB Belichick really likes in the first I think he is going to go front 7 ion defense with their first pick, and unfortunately I think there’s a strong likelihood he will trade down and double dip early in this draft. Overall I think this is going to be one of the most active and interesting offseasons we have seen in a long long time.

 

[ralmat55]

Aside from finding or developing a capable game-manager QB, the Patriots success or failure in building a capable front 6 that can stop a running game and generate pressure without excessive blitzing is the key to this offseason.

Bill is always going to prioritize preventing big plays with his D which he should (but sometimes takes too far IMHO). Thus, you need a stout, talented front 6 to minimize the successful little plays that if not stopped allow the opposition offense to dominate the game which is what happened far too often last season and the second half of 2019.

The Pats 2021 offense doesn’t promise to be dynamically productive. It’s hard to see them getting the QB play to be so from the options available. It’s good to see from the recent discussion in this thread that there seems to be front 6 players out there that could, with an above average secondary pretty much in place, raise the Patriots into being a top 5 defense in both points and yardage (they need to get off the field to give maximum opportunities and field position to the offense). That’s the only formula that makes the Patriots a contender next season.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I have no idea what I'm doing or talking about btw

No idea how to respond to this.

I would sign at least 3 veteran free agents for the interior defensive line. Whether 3-4 or 4-3 we need the front to keep the LBs clean and flowing to the ball.

I would love to sign 3 veteran free agent defensive linemen, but I am lost what everyone is thinking concerning the salary cap. I think we have to be realistic with our expectations and projections staying within a reasonable long-term salary cap scenario. Please see below.

When you look at the way Belichick went about building the first version of the Patriots dynasty his initial focus was on the DL, where he picked Seymour and Warren, and later Wilfork. He then went about adding veterans he knew would provide leadership on all units. In this case they have the veterans already on the roster to provide leadership in most units, and what they need is more talent and more playmakers. QB is obviously the most dire need but they really need DL, WR, TE. The return of Hightower is really going to help but if there is no QB Belichick really likes in the first I think he is going to go front 7 ion defense with their first pick, and unfortunately I think there’s a strong likelihood he will trade down and double dip early in this draft. Overall I think this is going to be one of the most active and interesting offseasons we have seen in a long long time.

We have $65M-ish in salary cap. We can create more space by cutting players, like Cannon, but if healthy, cutting Cannon creates a hole that we need to fill with additional salary, so I am not sure how much cap space is gained with that approach. We also can extend some guys, Hightower, etc., to gain more salary cap space, but we can only do that so much and minimize future dead space. We can also back load contracts to lessen the salary cap hit in 2021, and I think BB will do some of this as the cap will go up in coming years, but again if dead cap space is to be avoided in future years, that is limited.

If we start at $65M as of today, we need to save $5M for rookies and in-season LTBE incentives, so that leaves us with $60M. If we reserve $10M for a QB, that leaves us with $50M. If we assume half for the offense and half for the defense, that gives us $25M on defense. These are all "out of my @ss estimates" and if anyone can estimate better that would be great.

Assuming we are going to sign a veteran OLB, DE, 2 DTs and possibly a CB/S, that is five guys. How does everyone see those five guys fitting within $25M or am I missing something? 2 top DTs or 3 veteran DTs seems to me to take up too much salary cap space. As @Ivan notes I think BB will spend more on DEs versus run stuffing DTs. Maybe people think that the veteran defensive line signees can move all over the DL, so the position designations of DE and DT are not important? Still if we are going to sign 3 veteran defensive lineman, who are interchangeable at DT and DE, that would take up our $25M salary cap space. What about OLB or CB/S?

I am curious how posters are balancing their "wishes" with their "long term responsible salary cap management" objectives. This is the GM LOUNGE, not a draft thread or a free agent wish list thread. Here we have to be realistic and responsible with our projections like a real GM.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

One of the reasons I mentioned Watt. I would make it a point to play him outside most of the time. Another guy in the draft that I think is on our board is Carlos Basham. He's a perfect fit here. Cam Sample. Payton Turner. All those guys are Pat-Type DE's.

Bill has been playing a lot of our big boys at 4i lately taking on doubles while having HT take on a guard or center. Williams, Allen or Payne and Guy could fill those roles. The first three are about as decent rushers as we're getting realistically imo.

Agree, i like all 4 of them, Williams, Allen or Payne would be huge upgrades imo. The thing is/ My thoughts were with the suggestion of resign Guy Butler with maybe a rookie later on and a NT FA such as Tomlinson for example could be another 3 tech stud like Hankins as well I think we can save some money here but still upgrade at a much needed Position. Let's say for example (just throwing out names) Guy Butler Casey Shelvin and Allen(depth) are our IDL next year. This would be an upgrade, maybe not an significant but cheap upgrade. Or we could try to sign Williams or idk how much Payne costs after the contract expired but probably more than the resigning of Guy and Casey. We also would have to use a pick which we could use to replace other FA. But of course I wouldn't hate the trade since I like Payne a lot. I just think we have so many holes and as One-if-by-Sea mentioned need to try to focus also on future cap relations not just this year. For example if we sign a top tier DT FA, we still need:
vet qb - sth. like 10-20 Million depending on the QB
starting DE
starting LG
starting C
starting WR Number 1
starting vet TE
extend JC
and get some depth Players.
So i think signing a top tier DT is just with these holes not sth i would do ( i have not much knowledge i have to admit, it's just what i feel i would do). I definitly want a vet TE and vet number 1 WR. I have to admit of course it is not possible to solve all holes via FA, we need to draft 2-4 starters hopefully but QB/WR/TE are Number 1 Priorities to me with IDL, but i don't think there is much help needed just a few pieces coming together and our front 7 could be good again.

I'm not sure we're using guys like Flowers, Wise etc enough strictly as DE's anymore. Bill is using and moving LB's around to create pressure. Maybe Judon. I definitely wouldn't mind him.

I like Paye a lot but you're betting a lot on his upside. His tape is good but not quite top 15 worthy so again you're betting on his potential / upside. I wouldn't hate the pick at all. Love the prospect, slight reach on value but we have no one like him on the roster so I could see it.

Agree, a lot of players have huge upside but huge risk like Barmore/Paye/Phillips who could be good starters but busts as well

I'm having a hard time thinking of someone we'd get in the 2nd round as good as Payne, definitely not Allen. I'd much rather spend a second on one of them than a 1st on Barmore for example. Getting one of Allen, Williams, Payne & Harris is exactly what this DL needs imo. Harris is very good run defender and pass rusher. 3T, 1T and would be great on our stunts.

Mentioned it in another thread Harris would be huge

One of Allen, Williams, Payne would be at 4i/5T/1T.
Butler or Guy wouldn't be expensive. Neither are commanding huge money. We could easily pass and replace both imo. I have np paying the other guys though. This team is missing really good players. And you have to pay for good, proven players. We'd have Payne on a cheap deal for two more years I believe so maybe we could get him or Allen at decent prices and not break the bank. You're paying decent money for Williams but at least know is a very good run defender, consistent, tough but you're absolutely getting better in an area we've struggled with.

I agree i wouldn't be mad if we do this, more like the opposite. I'd be thrilled with every difference maker we get

And again big points are those guys fit from a scheme, problem area standpoint and would give us enormous flexibility in the draft.
I'd have np paying Milano. His skill set is rare and in high demand. Allen, Payne would be better value than we'd get at IDL in the 2nd round and Williams or Harris would really complete the IDL. Give me Milano , two of Allen, Payne, Williams and Harris and not only are big problems fixed. But think about those guys with HT, Wino, Uche, Dugger flying around from the line/second level. At a price but that front seven with our secondary looks much, much better imo.

I've watched Allen on tape but can't for the life of me remember him making any plays while watching live ball. Maybe a third or fourth option but I know the guys I mentioned are fixing the problem. They've been very consistent and proven. Plus we got money.

I mentioned a bunch of DE above that fit our mold. Golston is another one. There's 5-7 guys that fit that mold in the draft that will be available mid-late I believe.

I have no idea what I'm doing or talking about btw

 

[ashley]

A lot of talented interior d-lineman have already been cut. I'm pretty confident we can upgrade this position here. I do want Guy back though, as other posters have mentioned. We have had success drafting d-lineman as well( Seymore, Willfork, C. Jones, Warren)

 

[long distance]

I agree with this completely, Williams isn’t going to go for less than 16 per, but I would pay that in a heartbeat.

I prefer strong rotation, versatile unit with quality depth. It gives you more flexibility in game planning and in in-game adjustments, it gives you more freshness in 4th quarter and it makes you less vulnerable to injuries.

One vivid image from last two seasons was seeing Donald completely gassed on the sideline in 4th quarter on important snaps in multiple games. Playing 80-90% of snaps throughout the season and over 90% in big games is just too much for the position even for a freak like Donald. But if you pay him 22M apy you have to keep him in the game.

I also remeber well how BB always managed relatively easily to neutralize top DL players incl Von Miller and Donald.

If you invest top $ in secondary you know you're getting 100% of snaps there no problem (+ some ST) . so secondary is better investment not only bc where the league has gone but also from pure snap to $ economics.

Williams is a good & disruptive player entering his prime but he is no Donald (or Wilfork).
For c.16M you can get 2 of Tomlinson/Harris/Tuitt + Wolfe/Rankins/Onyemata f.e. or entire quality DL depth.

 

[Ivan]

I prefer strong rotation, versatile unit with quality depth. It gives you more flexibility in game planning and in in-game adjustments, it gives you more freshness in 4th quarter and it makes you less vulnerable to injuries.

One vivid image from last two seasons was seeing Donald completely gassed on the sideline in 4th quarter on important snaps in multiple games. Playing 80-90% of snaps throughout the season and over 90% in big games is just too much for the position even for a freak like Donald. But if you pay him 22M apy you have to keep him in the game.

I also remeber well how BB always managed relatively easily to neutralize top DL players incl Von Miller and Donald.

If you invest top $ in secondary you know you're getting 100% of snaps there no problem (+ some ST) . so secondary is better investment not only bc where the league has gone but also from pure snap to $ economics.

Williams is a good & disruptive player entering his prime but he is no Donald (or Wilfork).
For c.16M you can get 2 of Tomlinson/Harris/Tuitt + Wolfe/Rankins/Onyemata f.e. or entire quality DL depth.

That’s a reasonable approach but I would prefer a dominant interior DL who can play multiple positions on the line, as Seymour did. I don’t put Williams in a class with Donald or Wilfork but he’s the best DL in this free agency, and IF they can get him for 16 per I would do it.

 

[Ivan]

If they can’t get their QB this off-season then I’m all for trying to build as dominant a defense as possible for when they can get their offense together. I really don’t see the point in spending on WR’s or a TE when there is no QB to get them the ball.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

If they can’t get their QB this off-season then I’m all for trying to build as dominant a defense as possible for when they can get their offense together. I really don’t see the point in spending on WR’s or a TE when there is no QB to get them the ball.

That's why i hope they trade up if they think one of the QB's is the guy. I have no problem with using second rd. picks for that. Our recent second rd. history wasn't that great anyway, we have plenty of mid to late round picks where we hopefully find 1-2 contributors. That would be a good draft.

 

[Ivan]

That's why i hope they trade up if they think one of the QB's is the guy. I have no problem with using second rd. picks for that. Our recent second rd. history wasn't that great anyway, we have plenty of mid to late round picks where we hopefully find 1-2 contributors. That would be a good draft.

I’m actually fine with a wide variety of approaches, it depends primarily on what they can do at QB, but if they strike out at WB and end up with a Brissett, Newton, or Dalton e.g... then my preference is to go defense heavy in the draft and try to build a championship caliber defense, and then address QB and the skill positions next offseason.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I’m actually fine with a wide variety of approaches, it depends primarily on what they can do at QB, but if they strike out at WB and end up with a Brissett, Newton, or Dalton e.g... then my preference is to go defense heavy in the draft and try to build a championship caliber defense, and then address QB and the skill positions next offseason.

That is my concern. There aren't many defense prospects I can see having a huge impact early even first round projections. A lot of guys did not play much or have few uncertaincies esp about every down starting material. Also I don't see much defense value at 15. Parsons maybe Paye or a CB but not much else. A trade down would meet the value there more but still lot of projections what a player may can do after 1/2 years of learning. It's weird to project where they will land, this year more than the last year. I'd rather trade down if we go defense or take a "safe pick" like an OT/ one of the top 4 pass catchers who look like immediately contributors or playmaker.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Agree, i like all 4 of them, Williams, Allen or Payne would be huge upgrades imo. The thing is/ My thoughts were with the suggestion of resign Guy Butler with maybe a rookie later on and a NT FA such as Tomlinson for example could be another 3 tech stud like Hankins as well I think we can save some money here but still upgrade at a much needed Position. Let's say for example (just throwing out names) Guy Butler Casey Shelvin and Allen(depth) are our IDL next year.

I wouldn't mind this at all but wouldn't bring back all of B Allen, Guy & Butler. Maybe one of the three but I'm greedy PFFOS lol

This would be an upgrade, maybe not an significant but cheap upgrade. Or we could try to sign Williams or idk how much Payne costs after the contract expired but probably more than the resigning of Guy and Casey. We also would have to use a pick which we could use to replace other FA. But of course I wouldn't hate the trade since I like Payne a lot. I just think we have so many holes and as One-if-by-Sea mentioned need to try to focus also on future cap relations not just this year. For example if we sign a top tier DT FA, we still need:
vet qb - sth. like 10-20 Million depending on the QB
starting DE
starting LG
starting C
starting WR Number 1
starting vet TE
extend JC
and get some depth Players.
So i think signing a top tier DT is just with these holes not sth i would do ( i have not much knowledge i have to admit, it's just what i feel i would do). I definitly want a vet TE and vet number 1 WR. I have to admit of course it is not possible to solve all holes via FA, we need to draft 2-4 starters hopefully but QB/WR/TE are Number 1 Priorities to me with IDL, but i don't think there is much help needed just a few pieces coming together and our front 7 could be good again.

Agree, a lot of players have huge upside but huge risk like Barmore/Paye/Phillips who could be good starters but busts as well

Mentioned it in another thread Harris would be huge

I agree i wouldn't be mad if we do this, more like the opposite. I'd be thrilled with every difference maker we get

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I wouldn't mind this at all but wouldn't bring back all of B Allen, Guy & Butler. Maybe one of the three but I'm greedy PFFOS lol

I get that, I mean we weren't able to shop top tier players for a long time so it's Kind of fun to see the different directions and possible players we could get.

 

[long distance]

CAP INTERMEZZO

Multiple sources incl GMs confirming Cap Space will not be significantly higher than 180M. They are operating under this number.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I had Allen as a possible trade initially but decided to not include him here bc it is not likely imo. I wanted to keep the likely/more possible scenarios on the list (and its a long list already). But thanks for bringing it up and expanding options even further.

Idk I could see Washington wanting both but they also will have to pay others soon as well and might not want to tie up so much at IDL when they have Settle & Ioannidis as well?

I did include some trade options for players on teams with tight cap and would be reasonable contracts to take - like Brockers, Onyemata - or players BB might love to coach/play and could be available after June 1 - Hargrave, Tuitt, Goldman. (Quite a few teams tight on cap can have bad seasons so midseason trade deadline could be the next big bargain and id be surprised if BB doesn't keep enough space to take advantage.)

I've always been a fan of Brockers & Hargrave. Wouldn't mind Goldman.

I doubt trade will be the play at this position though:
1. This is one of the deepest FA positions as you can see from the list & will be plenty of very good FA options after all the cuts:

GM LOUNGE

Read it in one of the many speculative articles. It's possible I bet they're kicking themselves for picking up Howard's 5th year, given his injury and the arrival of Gronk.

www.patsfans.com

(of course if NO, LAR call Bill to give them a little something for Brockers, Onyemata he'd be interested..)
2. His trades for this position were always low key & cheap (Hicks for Hoo-man, Shelton for swap of mid-round picks)
3. His investment in this position was one of the lowest in NFL after last big Vince contract.

On the other hand he did traditionally invest highly in Drafts. For life after Wilfork he invested 2 consecutive 1st round picks (Easley, M.Brown) and a 3rd (Valentine). Despite no-one sticking around he did not invest a high pick on DT for 4 straight Drafts. This leads me to believe drafting starting DT is a real possibility. No matter what you can do in FA you always want at least one cheap home starter to groom.

He has but the point I'm making with this class is the same one we've broke before by reaching for guys like Brown & Dom Eas. I'm all for it when the value lines up and usually it does with my grades and our picks more often then not.

So despite great opportunity to completely rebuild DT through FA i expect they draft one reasonably high - 4th round at the latest if someone like Shelvin falls. One additional reason is that it might be hard to sign FAs on longer-term deals this Free Agency - agents will be pushing for 1y/short deals to lose as little money as possible due to Salary Cap collapse..


Fixing Pats DL should be the easiest job in the world this year. Still, BBs GM value views and coaching preferences/possibilities may vary significantly from our wish lists.. Nevertheless ill post mine later

We should absolutely have a better DL all together. Lots of options and we have some $ to spend.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[long distance]

I would love to sign 3 veteran free agent defensive linemen, but I am lost what everyone is thinking concerning the salary cap. I think we have to be realistic with our expectations and projections staying within a reasonable long-term salary cap scenario. Please see below.

Maybe we should be adding apy/cap hit implications when we are listing our moves.

f.e. Tomlinson is projected around 10M apy. I wouldn't necessarily take him at that price. But there is decent chance his price will be lower (NYG will probably not compete if they want to keep Williams & they have young core on the roster; prices after top tier FAs will fall; DL could be less valued position due to cap restraint). If his price gets closer to 8M range i'd be in. He is 27 and one of the better IDL in the league fitting what BB wants perfectly. Id love to sign him on 5-6y deal (although his agent might push for much shorter). That would make his “adjusted“ cap hit (TOP 51 rule) well below 5M even if its not backloaded. So even if you take him at 10M you'd end up with around 5M cap hit.

If you dont want to spend top NT $ and still want significant upgrade you can go DaQuan Jones at some 6M & 3.5 cap hit.

Guy is guesstimated by Miguel (and me) at c.4M. 2021 cap hit would be around 2M.

So if you're willing to spend some 10M 2021 cap on IDL & still add one FA you can go with guys projected at 6-7M apy like Wolfe or one of plenty cheaper options among older vets.

We have $65M-ish in salary cap. We can create more space by cutting players, like Cannon, but if healthy, cutting Cannon creates a hole that we need to fill with additional salary, so I am not sure how much cap space is gained with that approach. We also can extend some guys, Hightower, etc., to gain more salary cap space, but we can only do that so much and minimize future dead space. We can also back load contracts to lessen the salary cap hit in 2021, and I think BB will do some of this as the cap will go up in coming years, but again if dead cap space is to be avoided in future years, that is limited.

If we start at $65M as of today, we need to save $5M for rookies and in-season LTBE incentives, so that leaves us with $60M. If we reserve $10M for a QB, that leaves us with $50M. If we assume half for the offense and half for the defense, that gives us $25M on defense. These are all "out of my @ss estimates" and if anyone can estimate better that would be great.

Assuming we are going to sign a veteran OLB, DE, 2 DTs and possibly a CB/S, that is five guys. How does everyone see those five guys fitting within $25M or am I missing something? 2 top DTs or 3 veteran DTs seems to me to take up too much salary cap space. As @Ivan notes I think BB will spend more on DEs versus run stuffing DTs. Maybe people think that the veteran defensive line signees can move all over the DL, so the position designations of DE and DT are not important? Still if we are going to sign 3 veteran defensive lineman, who are interchangeable at DT and DE, that would take up our $25M salary cap space. What about OLB or CB/S?

ok - let me repost this for those who missed it or are joining later:

CAP SPENDING MATH

Since lots of people are spending pats cap & paid Pats “reporters“ making rookie mistakes maybe just a few notes:

63M free cap is even much more than it looks at first sight:

1.
The 2021 cap hit will be 20-40% lower than average per year contract.
So if you want and go spend 60M of Pats 2021 Cap Space - you can sign c 80M worth of apy contracts.

f.e.: Hightower 2017 - one of top LB on the market — reported 4y/35.5M = 8.9M apy (all projections well over 10) = 5.3M cap hit in 2017
This is a bit backloaded since Pats were well in SB window. Here is more normal example of signing solid vet:
John Simon - solid starter/rotation > first reported 2y/7.1M = 3.5M apy turned into 2y/4.4M = 2.2apy = 1.8M cap hit (projected iirc 2y/12M)

2.
Those Cap Hits are actually even lower bc of the TOP 51 contracts rule. Every new contract higher than 51st contract replaces that contract. Usually that contract is around 0.8M. Pats already have 62 players signed. Current 51st contract is already around 0.8M.
That means Pats only lost around 4.5M cap space signing Hightower on 9M apy contract.

3.
Another common mistake made in offseason roster building projection is Cap Space Hit for combined 2021 Draft Class.
While the cost for Pats Draft Class is currently projected at 9M most these contracts will not make TOP 51. Only 1st and 2nd round picks (if they keep them) would make the top 51. So when you account TOP 51 rule only 2M would be taken off Free Cap.

4.
Also - even if Pats don't NEED to cut or restructure players, some additional 2021 cap will come from that anyway (high priced opt-outs etc)

5.
Projected apy contracts (that i will include in my positional listings to follow) will probably be even lower than normally due to tighter League Cap - especially after top tier.


BTW - as projected earlier, Pats are now #3 in 2021 Free Cap after Indy traded for Wentz (and lost 25.4M). This means they are even better situated to take advantage of the bargain FA market 2021.
Pats are #1 in effective Cap Space in 2022!


Bottom line: 63M+ Free Cap can buy you a lot of team. Hope you can enjoy your roster building even more.

I am curious how posters are balancing their "wishes" with their "long term responsible salary cap management" objectives. This is the GM LOUNGE, not a draft thread or a free agent wish list thread. Here we have to be realistic and responsible with our projections like a real GM.

100% And i am so thankful posters here respect this . our appetite will always be bigger than BBs though

Also - i see this thread as a process and elimination game. So concentrating on sole positions we might get a bit too greedy but after i finish with positional listings we will recap/revisit and discuss more in depth the whole picture approach.

I apologize for going too slow - ill try to speed up positional listings.