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If we are being totally real, Watson is likely not going to jail as no criminal charges have really been filed. He at most will get a suspension for a year. He’s 26 and plays at an extremely high level and has succeeded with mediocre supporting casts. He’s someone that is great and you can longterm build around.
If morality is not factored in and it’s 100% about winning. Trading for him isn’t the worst move. Getting a good young QB like Mac plus few firsts is a good return for the Texans and next to nothing for an elite QB even with a suspension incoming.
The question is the morality aspect and whether the fans and organization can stomach it.
Odds are good that he won't go to jail, but there is a chance he will be charged. If he he is charged and there is some credibility to the charges, he could be in for a long suspension. Depending on how much the NFL cares about the current environment, they could make Watson an example. That is why he is toxic right now.