Free Agent QB Baker Mayfield

[kevan]

Jacoby Brissett is the most feasible I guess.
Is he all that better than Mac or bailey?

 

[kevan]

I guess Jacoby Brissett then. I don't know how much better than Mac that is but he's probably more respected.

 

[Ivan]

I could see Baker coming on a 3 year deal with a large signing bonus (let's say $40M) which is also more front-loaded in salary. Let's say $35M per year total due to the terms.

- Year 1: $8M signing bonus pro-ration, $15M salary. Cap hit of $23M.
- Year 2: $8M signing bonus pro-ration, $25M salary. Cap hit of $33M.
- Year 3: $8M signing bonus pro-ration, $15M salary. Cap hit of $23M.
- Year 4 (void year): $8M signing bonus
- Year 5 (void year): $8M signing bonus

In this deal, Baker would get a $40M signing bonus and a $40M guaranteed total salary between his first two years, so he would have $80M total guaranteed which he would receive $55M of in the first year and $25M of in the second year.

This deal would let him make $80M of his $105M in real money in the first two years and then give the team some cap space breathing room in the third year with a lower cap hit of $23M. If they want to release him in year 3, because a drafted rookie QB is ready to go, his salary is not guaranteed so they'd simply either have a dead cap hit of $24M (essentially equal to the cap hit for that year, but freeing up future cap), or release him with a June 1 designation, incurring only an $8M dead cap hit that year and then $16M the year after that.

The team can absorb a $23M hit in 2024 and $33M in 2025, it lets them sit and develop a QB for a few years on the bench, and it gives Baker a lot of cash in a short period of time instead of locking a lot of the money behind backloaded salaries that he won't see for a while or maybe ever. He would hit the market again after 2 or 3 years, and assuming he continued to play well, would cash in again.

Just thinking out loud, but I could see something like this playing out.

I could see the entire front office and coaching staff getting fired two years from now for going 12 and 22 with Mayfied at QB. .

 

[Ivan]

Last 3 years as a starter, Mayfield was 6-8, 2-8, and 9-8 (and a good playoff game 1-1). That "good enough to sneak into the playoffs" was with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Trey Palmer as his WRs. If he had started on the Pats this past year with everything that was going on, I'm not sure he gets 1 or 2 more than the 4 they ended up getting.

If mediocrity is what they are shooting for then Mayfield should be a priority signing. Hell, they could even keep Mac if they want to really embrace mediocrity.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Here’s my question: if we sign Briskett and go 2-15, what are the chances Mayo doesn’t get fired? If they’re not 100%, then he’s going to feel the pressure to push the rookie QB out there before we would prefer. But we saved $25 million, which we spent on what exactly? Another CB? An Edge to compliment Judon?

To put together a competent team, you have to have a QB. We don’t have one now. Briskett has had plenty of opportunities to prove he isn’t one. Maybe the rookie will be ready, but why force it when there are better options?

 

[UrbanCowboy]

I commented on this in the Wolf thread today. I could see him competing with a veteran to be the starter for a year or two while the QB sits. He fits the AVP scheme a lot better than BOB’s and he has solid toughness and leadership traits. Obviously his arm is only so-so, but it’s probably good enough. He launched a few beautiful deep balls last year, so he has enough arm.

I would be down for a Zappe AVP year, as long as there was a veteran there too that he needed to beat and to step in as needed.

Seems like a reasonable "semi-tank" strategy to play the Zap. Trade down get picks and use the money saved to further improve the roster; but since the quarterback stinks our record would be lousy and we'd have good draft pick(s) again next year.

 

[Jim Beankie]

If mediocrity is what they are shooting for then Mayfield should be a priority signing. Hell, they could even keep Mac if they want to really embrace mediocrity.

Gotta suck sometimes to get better I guess. Last 2 times the Pats picked in the single digits, they went to the SB later that year... Highly likely it's not gonna hap... Hmm... +10000 to win AFC looks juicy.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

You need somebody you can beat the crap out of while you get your weapons and your line together. Don't wreck a kid because he has no time to throw or anybody to throw to. Get a vet in that can help develop everyone. Get MHJ or Alt at 3, somebody that will help. Because right now, we have nothing for a young QB to work with, and that will KILL his development.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Jacoby Brissett is the most feasible I guess.
Is he all that better than Mac or bailey?

Zap and Patty Pats destroyed Brissett Browns head to head in '22, but that's just a single data point. If they opt to sign him for cheap as QB 2 or 3 (wow he got $8mil from WC last year... geez), the one incredibly good thing about his game so far is that his INT% has been really really low - as in tied for #1 All time with ARodgers at 1.4%. Woah - Tyrod Taylor is tied for 3rd place with Herbert at 1.7%. TB12, Mahomes, and Kaep are tied for 5th at 1.8%. Huh...

Mac was dead last for stat eligible last year, then Howell then JAllen. I'm a Zap fan, but his INT% was absolutely atrocious - worse than Mac's. Surprisingly, there were FOUR top 2 overall picked QBs (Wentz, Mariota, Trub, Winston) who had a worse INT% than Zap last year.

 

[Ivan]

Gotta suck sometimes to get better I guess. Last 2 times the Pats picked in the single digits, they went to the SB later that year... Highly likely it's not gonna hap... Hmm... +10000 to win AFC looks juicy.

There is some truth to this. The last time they sucked this bad they drafted Drew Bledsoe with the 1st pick overall, and while he was no Tom Brady he really helped them turn the franchise around. This is one of the big reason’s I want them to take the QB at 3, as there are 3 QB’s in this Draft worth that pick. IMO this is also a big part of the argument against Mayfield and Cousins. Both of them are going to get pretty big payday’s, and neither of them are going to lead the Patriots to a Championship. Instead what they are going to do is suck up a good sized chunk of the salary cap just to make them a middle of the pack team, that borders on the playoffs, and leaves them picking between 10~20 every year. And that’s the kind of nowhere land you don’t want to be in. I think they would be much better off taking the QB at 3, and signing a short term deal with Tannehill or another of the lower cost QB’s to start 2024 while they continue to rebuild their offense. Then shoot for a playoff spot in 25’, and contention for a championship after that.. Their goal should be to build a great team over the next few years, not a mediocre team for the next 5.

 

[Ivan]

Seems like a reasonable "semi-tank" strategy to play the Zap. Trade down get picks and use the money saved to further improve the roster; but since the quarterback stinks our record would be lousy and we'd have good draft pick(s) again next year.

Next years QB class sucks.

 

[dtbrks]

draft and roll with a rook, we know what baker can do...

 

[UrbanCowboy]

Next years QB class sucks.

Yep. I suppose livelihoods are won and lost over when and where to take the risk on a QB ... being patient is a good way to get fired, though I'd lean that way (toward patience) on general principles. Reaching also gets your fired. Upon reflection, you get fired unless you get that right.

 

[neuronet]

We've seen his top end, and it is pretty good. The problem is his next deal he will be back to not caring again.

 

[Triumph]

Case Keenum or Jacoby Brisket

Mayfield is too big a threat to Corky Mac in 2024 where the other 2 guys are not.

 

[Jim Beankie]

There is some truth to this. The last time they sucked this bad they drafted Drew Bledsoe with the 1st pick overall, and while he was no Tom Brady he really helped them turn the franchise around. This is one of the big reason’s I want them to take the QB at 3, as there are 3 QB’s in this Draft worth that pick. IMO this is also a big part of the argument against Mayfield and Cousins. Both of them are going to get pretty big payday’s, and neither of them are going to lead the Patriots to a Championship. Instead what they are going to do is suck up a good sized chunk of the salary cap just to make them a middle of the pack team, that borders on the playoffs, and leaves them picking between 10~20 every year. And that’s the kind of nowhere land you don’t want to be in. I think they would be much better off taking the QB at 3, and signing a short term deal with Tannehill or another of the lower cost QB’s to start 2024 while they continue to rebuild their offense. Then shoot for a playoff spot in 25’, and contention for a championship after that.. Their goal should be to build a great team over the next few years, not a mediocre team for the next 5.

I remember how even though they finished 5-11 in Bledsoe's rookie season, I was excited and hopeful (Colts fans probably felt the same after PManning's 3-13 rookie season with MHarrison). Will always be a huge Drew fan (even though I was team Hot Hand in '01).

Problem with picking the 2nd or 3rd QB is you might end up with Rick Mirer (6 straight .500 or worse seasons) or Ryan Leaf (Chargers were 1-15 his 3rd year), and that would set the team back for many years if most of the other pieces aren't in place. Most would say it's worth that risk given the position's importance, and it'd be smart to do so on many fronts, but I don't really subscribe to that...

...I think I may have just changed my mind. Even if they end up picking someone with less talent than Drew, I would hope that they would pick up someone who can be a leader and the face of a franchise and be a class act and consummate professional like Drew, who was easy to root for [if memory serves me] even when he sucked, and we'd thought he was a bust. I might start watching press conferences of the top QBs after their losses to see how they presented themselves. Maye and CWill will probably have lots of examples since their teams cratered 2nd half of the season.

 

[Ivan]

I remember how even though they finished 5-11 in Bledsoe's rookie season, I was excited and hopeful (Colts fans probably felt the same after PManning's 3-13 rookie season with MHarrison). Will always be a huge Drew fan (even though I was team Hot Hand in '01).

Problem with picking the 2nd or 3rd QB is you might end up with Rick Mirer (6 straight .500 or worse seasons) or Ryan Leaf (Chargers were 1-15 his 3rd year), and that would set the team back for many years if most of the other pieces aren't in place. Most would say it's worth that risk given the position's importance, and it'd be smart to do so on many fronts, but I don't really subscribe to that...

...I think I may have just changed my mind. Even if they end up picking someone with less talent than Drew, I would hope that they would pick up someone who can be a leader and the face of a franchise and be a class act and consummate professional like Drew, who was easy to root for [if memory serves me] even when he sucked, and we'd thought he was a bust. I might start watching press conferences of the top QBs after their losses to see how they presented themselves. Maye and CWill will probably have lots of examples since their teams cratered 2nd half of the season.

It was Daniel’s who won the Johnny Unitas Award for Leadership and Academic Achievement. In fact he won all of the postseason awards for QB’s.


And if people are torn between Maye and Daniels that’s perfectly understandable, both are great prospects that will have to continue improving in the pro’s. But what gets me is that over and over I see people here making the argument that taking the 2nd or 3rd rated QB is too much of a gamble, unless it’s Maye, then they are ok with it. And again, if they don’t want Daniels that's fine. it’s their choice, but they should just say that, instead of pretending it’s too much of a gamble, unless it’s their guy, at which point it’s not too much of a gamble for them.

 

[kevan]

It was Daniel’s who won the Johnny Unitas Award for Leadership and Academic Achievement. In fact he won all of the postseason awards for QB’s.


And if people are torn between Maye and Daniels that’s perfectly understandable, both are great prospects that will have to continue improving in the pro’s. But what gets me is that over and over I see people here making the argument that taking the 2nd or 3rd rated QB is too much of a gamble, unless it’s Maye, then they are ok with it. And again, if they don’t want Daniels that's fine. it’s their choice, but they should just say that, instead of pretending it’s too much of a gamble, unless it’s their guy, at which point it’s not too much of a gamble for them.

I think Daniels is going to the commanders
Pats will have a choice, trade 3 to the giants and take jj McCarthy or a player at a different position. Or take maye at 3

 

[Ivan]

I think Daniels is going to the commanders
Pats will have a choice, trade 3 to the giants and take jj McCarthy or a player at a different position. Or take maye at 3

As I have said numerous times, I’m fine with either one of them. If they ended up with McCarthy I will root for him to succeed, but he’s by far the biggest risk of them. Whereas the other 3 have significant production to go on, everything with McCarthy is projection. He has traits evaluators like, a decent arm, and possibly the build to get bigger and stronger, but his production was minimal.

 

[Ivan]

Yep. I suppose livelihoods are won and lost over when and where to take the risk on a QB ... being patient is a good way to get fired, though I'd lean that way (toward patience) on general principles. Reaching also gets your fired. Upon reflection, you get fired unless you get that right.

If you are waiting until 26’ to draft your QB then you are waiting until at least 27’ to hope to really compete with them.