Florio on Pats deferring after the coin toss

[dhamz]

If you end up getting back to back possessions it can be an advantage - especially for a team with a good offense. I've seen some very big games turon on a team scoring to end the first half an scoring again when they got the opening kick - the 2006 AFC title game being the biggest.

 

[upstater1]

i doubt BB would say he would defer 100% of the times based just on psychological thinking...

Well, then, explain to me how there is a statistical difference.

 

[upstater1]

Whether it's about half-time adjustments, psychology or what have you, there is a statistical advantage. Receiving in the 2nd half correlates with victory. It's a small effect, but statistically significant IIRC.

Got ya. The team that opens the 2nd half with the ball usually wins.

All I'm saying is that it does not equal more possessions.

One factor could be that the defense gets tired in the 4th quarter, and so having an extra 2nd half possession might tire out the opposition's defense, but theoretically there shouldn't be any possession difference.

In other words, you get the same amount of possessions in either half, but in the second, a couple of those possessions will come against a spent defense, so you'd rather open the second half on offense.